Yes, the only countries (other than principalities) in Western Europe who are not are the UK and Ireland
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Yes, the only countries (other than principalities) in Western Europe who are not are the UK and Ireland
And what about the 4m people on either side of the channel? Do they get to just carry on forever with their current rights completely secured? What about the money owed by the UK for prior commitments, does that get paid?
Free Trade agreements don't normally have membership fees or the right to reside or work. So in that way, it's no different to a free trade agreement (except the visa bit). Canada and Mexico also have this arrangement with the EU (or will soon)
Instead, let's talk about access to the single market i.e. what services we can sell. Unfortunately, there are so many different sectors (literally, all of them) that it's impossible for me to even begin to go through them individually. Instead, let me please show you one chart
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nati...services-narrowed-to-21-billion-in-april-2017
The UK has a trade deficit in goods, but a trade surplus in services.
So the EU would happily accept a free trade agreement (maybe not desperate enough to do a big deal on the Brexit fee?), and then laugh when we realise how we no longer have access to their financial markets, insurance markets, legal markets, for our services.
Lack of access to the Single Market will hurt our economy.
Does the DCFTA cover enough of the single market to prevent a major collapse in one of more sectors of our economy?
People ?
Both sides have said no problem. Those already in place can continue to live / work / play where they are already.
The fly in the ointment is that the EU insist that EU residents remain subject to ECJ Jurisdiction while in the UK. As I said last week - you can't have a system where 60 million people in the UK are subject to one Jurisdiction and 3+ miillion to a different jurisdiction. That's just plain stupid. Up to the EU to sort this one out.
Exit Fee ?
Whatever should be paid needs to be paid. No arguments from me on that. But until the EU presents the bill, nobody knows whether what they're asking for is the right amount ?
Free Trade agreements don't normally have membership fees or the right to reside or work. So in that way, it's no different to a free trade agreement (except the visa bit). Canada and Mexico also have this arrangement with the EU (or will soon)
Instead, let's talk about access to the single market i.e. what services we can sell. Unfortunately, there are so many different sectors (literally, all of them) that it's impossible for me to even begin to go through them individually. Instead, let me please show you one chart
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nati...services-narrowed-to-21-billion-in-april-2017
The UK has a trade deficit in goods, but a trade surplus in services.
So the EU would happily accept a free trade agreement (maybe not desperate enough to do a big deal on the Brexit fee?), and then laugh when we realise how we no longer have access to their financial markets, insurance markets, legal markets, for our services.
Lack of access to the Single Market will hurt our economy.
Does the DCFTA cover enough of the single market to prevent a major collapse in one of more sectors of our economy?
Who knows what would be covered ?
If the EU decide that, let's say, Euro Clearing can't take place outside the EU, that's their choice.
As I keep saying, they hold the cards.
But once outside the EU, the UK could potentially retaliate, if necessary, by prohibiting certain parts of the UK's public services from foreign ownership. That would certainly make Germany, France, Netherlands and Spain a little poorer.
Well they hold the cards if we went down the DCFTA route. If we went down the Norway route, we'd be fine.
How would exempting UK's public services from foreign ownership make them poorer?
Financial Times are consistently saying they're going to ask for £99.8bn
I was about to respond to that post but you have basically read my mind. I thought the deal Norway and Switzerland have was not brilliant but a G7 nation and permanent member of the UN Security Council now looks to a bankrupt mafia state (all of 26 years old and under partial Russian occupation) for guidance on its relations with its European neighbours....
Also, the idea that more than (being extremely generous) 10% of Leave voters understood the full implications of their vote is laughable. They were sold a lie of having your cake and eating it, controls on immigration with no economic downside (in fact upside - more NHS money). And even that assumes they were responding to the actual question on the ballot paper rather than delivering a big F*ck you.
I wish I could explain to every Hard Brexiter just how important the export of our services, is, really there has been very little written about it.
The only sensible option is to be in the EU Single Market, because that's what our services needs. We don't build cars, we don't make computers, we don't drill oil. We are a services economy.
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-trade-rules/
The only sensible option is to be in the EU Single Market, because that's what our services needs. We don't build cars, we don't make computers, we don't drill oil. We are a services economy.
This just seems to me a very self-centred view of democracy. Every time we vote whether in a general election or a referendum our opinion of what matters is at risk of being ignored or imposed on others as there is always a differential price paid by individuals when policy changes and in the end govts do change policy after we vote them in.
As I understand it you don't live in the UK now. So let's assume for the sake of this argument that there is a housing crisis in the UK and it is affecting large numbers of people in the UK and migration is exacerbating the problem and that leaving the EU is the only way to stop that. (I know you don't believe this but just for the sake of the argument lets assume that the people you disagree with do believe this to be the case).
Then what you are saying in your post is that your needs outweigh their needs and you don't like it when they put their needs first.
I'm sure those who voted leave don't care about you either they have their own problems and issues and since you don't live here anymore why should they care about your opinions anyway and what hope is there that you could ever understand their problems anyway?
I can honestly say none of this is my fault as I have voted Labour, remain, Labour. I just accept that people with a very different outlook to me might vote in ways which latter harm me which is annoying but I don't take it personally and I certainly don't start hating people because of it.
I spent a lot of time thinking about this exact issue, and the reason I don't think its particularly valid is purely because there is no clear advantage for the vast, vast majority of Leave voters. If Leave would have resulted in them being financially better off, or having better prospects then although I'd obviously have resented it deeply, I wouldn't have the same level of actual fury.
But none of this leads to a better outcome for them. They were told this by a huge majority of experts and politicians, and they chose to believe a clown car full of idiots like Farage, Boris and the Daily Mail instead. So basically they fecked up something hugely important to me and made their own lives worse in the process. It's the stupidity of it that makes me so angry.
There will be advantages to leaving the EU for leavers. Not great ones, but some.
- Stop the decline in low wages caused by EU migration. (2)
- Reduce the pressure on housing, particularly at the lower end.
- Possibly better welfare to be available once EU Migrants can't claim them (very contentious)
- Possibly reduce the pressure on Primary School places (very contentious)
You can see why leavers voted that way.
Of course they may not realise that most goods will already be increasing in price by 20% following the crash in the pound, which will more than make up for any potential benefit.
- Stop the decline in low wages caused by EU migration.
Not only is this not actually proven, but even if it was there's no guarantee that the economic damage caused by not having enough worker availability wouldn't vastly outbalance it.
- Reduce the pressure on housing, particularly at the lower end.
Given that the millions of EU citizens who are here won't apparently be told to leave, the government would still need to build vast numbers of new homes to catch up to the current shortage. Even if they did that, the reverse effect would be a massive house price slump which would be potentially great for new buyers and absolutely ruinous for the millions who could end up in negative equity.
- Possibly better welfare to be available once EU Migrants can't claim them (very contentious)
EU migrants are the smallest group claiming welfare benefits and tax credits (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...h-do-immigrants-really-claim-in-benefits.html)
- Possibly reduce the pressure on Primary School places (very contentious)
Like the housing, its something that only improves if the government invest massively to catch up to the existing situation. Given that they're instead cutting services, one wonders where this magic school and housing tree is going to come from.
My experience of the UK visa system has been nothing but shit. 1000 for my wife's visa, rejected on a whim the first time. I'm looking at close to 1500 for the next renewal.
I don't know about the rest of the EU. I can talk about my experience of this nation. We have a government determined to hit an arbitrary target of 100000 net migration. To achieve this they continually make visa requirements harder and seek to throw anyone they can out the country without compassion. They've designed a visa system that makes it harder for those with children to be unified with a parent.
I made a mistake in saying medical professionals, it should be non eu nationals. That aside in the future an eu nurse can choose to go through the cost of getting a UK visa or pick one of 27 other nations that won't cost anything. The NHS is fecked
How much is it?
You can understand why leavers voted leave though.
A house slump is basically needed at this point; or at least house prices to not rise for the next decade.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/the-state-of-the-uk-housing-market-in-five-charts/
Historically house prices have always been around 3-4 times annual wage. I believe we have now reached 7 x annual wage.
And yes, of course the government needs to catch up on primary schools and housing, but you can't say there aren't any potential advantages.
- From a remoaner
Absolutely, but its going to hit millions of people extremely hard in the process. I don't see any real way around that.
Potential advantages sure, but they're very fluffy and full of maybes. The much bigger disadvantages and losses are much more concrete.
Good article. An extension to the Article 50 deadline would at least be a good place to start (and if its more than 8 months, give me my 5 years of residence).
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...tart-on-monday-and-we-have-no-idea-what-we-re
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...tart-on-monday-and-we-have-no-idea-what-we-re
I'm still optimistic that the negotiation process and final proposal are such a shitshow the country changes it's mind and we cancel Brexit.
We have a wonderful law here - the Government have listed what they call strategic industries and can block any takeover by non-EU companies.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-takeovers-idUSBREA4D0WG20140514
And in Germany there is the famous Golden Share system for the same purpose.
https://www.ft.com/content/7dc5550a-168c-11e1-be1d-00144feabdc0
In my line of business, the EU itself doesn't permit foriegn ownership of airlines with an EU Air Operators Certificate.
https://www.ft.com/content/246e2500-9c0b-11e5-b45d-4812f209f861 Hasn't happened yet, by the way, and unlikely to happen.
See....The EU is one of the world's largest Protectionists.
If the EU insist that euroclearing can only be undertaken inside the EU - which is an obvious detriment to the UK and USA - then the UK could adopt simiar Protectionist measures with Public Services, to ensure that its infrastructure remains under UK ownership and Government control as much as possible, such as
- About 70% of London Transport's buses are owned and operated by the French, German and Dutch Governments via DB, RATP and Abiello
- Arriva bus services in the UK are owned by the German Government via DB.
- More than 60% of the UK's Train services ( passenger and freight ) are owned and operated by the German and Dutch Governments via DB and Abiello
- Of the Big 6 Energy Companies, e-on is German owned, EDF is French owned, n-power is German owned, Scottish Power is Spanish owned. Together, they're estimated to have more than 75% of the UK market.
- Almost all 100% of the UK's Councils' Waste collections are in the hands of 20 companies, . The largest is Veolia, French owned, the third largest Suez is French owned, 5th largest is FCC which is Spanish owned, 9th largest is DCC, until a couple of weeks ago was Irish owned, and 15th SAICA is Spanish owned.
It's estimated that these 5 companies have over 50% of the contracts with local councils by quantity, and 75% by value.
OK...Put together, these are not on the same scale as the UK's share of Euroclearing, but preventing foreign ownership of these operations will rattle a few cages.
Or chose to, correctly, disbelieve the absolute bollocks and lies of Call Me Dave and George Feckin Gideon Feckin Osborne.
I just don't really know if preventing EU companies from owning UK companies achieves anything. Like, what does that achieve?
So we're limiting our list of potential buyers, reducing final sales, because? I dont see how it makes them poorer either.
I agree that the EU is extemley protectionist (which may or may not be a good thing) and I wish the UK had been *more* protectionist when it came to selling our Crown Jewel companies... But yeah, i dont really see how it hurts them
Any objection to Sterling clearing being done in the EU instead of London?
What about car manufacturers, ban foreign ownership? etc etc etc
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I thought we were going to become global Britain open to the world post Brexit?
Lies like when they said it would mean leaving the single market and all the Leave campaigners said that was scaremongering and Project Fear?
Global Britain! Open Britain! Come do your business here!
Free trade deals with Europe*
Single Market Access**
Low Corporation Tax rates***
Easy to get a Visa for your workers!!!****
*EU Only
**Only for certain sectors
***15%
****Workers on certain sectors can work here.
Come to Britain today!
(All British Businesses must be 67% owned by British personnel)
Not all and any companies - I said, specifically, those which are part of the UK's Public Services and Infrastructure, the ones fpor which Thatcher should be exhumed and shot for selling off in the first place. The ones that the Labour Party keep saying they want to re-nationalise anyway, starting with the railways.
I don't undertsand why you don't see how this would hurt them.
You mean that all these investments which they have don't turn a profit ? And that the German and French and Dutch Governments run all these buses and trains out of the goodness of their collective hearts for the charitable benefit of the poor sods who live in the UK?
No....Like when they said there'd have to be be an emergency budget, taxes would have to rise, house prices would collapse and everyone would be in negative equity, World War 3 would start within days, etc, etc, etc....
Why didn't they get bought by British companies then?
What about my Sterling question, not saying that I think it should or even that it would ever happen
I never heard the WW3 and plague of locusts quotes but anyone with an ounce of intelligence would have dismissed it for what it was.
For the remainder I'll say Stanley's favourite phrase "The UK haven't left yet"
Instead of people believing the rubbish all politicians spout and believing newspaper opinions on all sides of the argument, why not actually use their brain, sadly the past couple of years have answered this question.
Yeah exactly.
Cameroon said leaving the eu could even lead to war. fact
I personally doubt the tory cnut
I'm not saying he didn't say it, I didn't listen to much of what he said at all. Why would people believe that anyway.
Sorry you are mistaken there. There is a vast difference in the benefit entitlements of the low paid eu nationals vs the non-eu nationals. The non-eu nationals are not entitled to most benefits apart from nhs and schooling. Once we are out of the eu, the eu nurses for eg would not bother coming here and those positions will be filled by migrants from even poorer countries (who dont know the concept of state benefits). The benefit bill would be a bit lower and the british public would be getting a great deal with immigration (as they did from 1950s to 2005).
Regardless of that, if the uk is going to bring in more nurses from pakistan instead of portugal then its a bit weird to take the moral solace from the fact that we are not pinching trained professionals from the poor portugal. But maybe you were being sarcastic.
Its exactly that when you take into account the non cash costs to the govt.
Also, dont get your disdain for the city workers. They pay feckload of tax and cant be blamed for the govt not being able to spend it well.
Same way remainers think people believed the bus.
Osbourne made a a comment like "if you want to know how it is to go it alone, look at north korea"
Project fear? you tell me
Same way you say people believed the bus, if they believed the bus remainers believed Cameroon, right?
Did they? Believing that there would be a war or locusts or the UK ending up like North Korea is a bit different to believing that money would be spent on the NHS, people wanted to believe this and this was used to deflect blame onto the EU away from the shortcomings of the government.
As I said, why believe any politician, I'm pretty sure you didn't believe any of these statements from both sides.
I do not want to make this personal but you don't even know what the leave vote did to you yet and my guess is it will be nothing. It's 90% certain that the UK voting leave will not affect your ability to remain living and working inside the EU post-Brexit. If it does affect you it will be because the EU countries you see as so much more progressive than the UK choose to use your predicament as a tool to exact unjustified concessions from the UK which the UK is forced to reject.
You seem to think that the reason people live in the UK is to provide you with a stable better existence in another country within the EU no matter what they perceive the cost to them is.
Your view of why they think the way they do is being warped by your desire to denigrate them for not doing exactly what you want them to do for your own perceived best interest. You duck the counterpoint that they think you are doing exactly the same. Ignoring their best interests for your own incorrect perceived best interests.
Democracy may be a bitch but it is a better shag than wanking.
Make it as personal as you like. If you voted Leave I havent made any secret of what I think about your decision making skills. As for what you 'guess' will happen, that's exactly the point isn't it, Leave has created a huge mess of uncertainty and chaos where people like me who live abroad have no idea whether our lives might soon be absolutely turned upside down, while people in the UK have no idea whether their economy is about to be devastated. And all for some vague nationalistic and xenophobic bullshit about how great Britain could be alone.
I think a lot of the utilities were PLC's quoted on the LSE when first sold off. They were susequently bought by foreign investors - not just other EU companies / governments eg, several water companies are owned by Malaysian ( certainly ) and Chinese ( well, Hong Kong ) banks, but the fact remains that some EU countries have used Government money ( either directly or through Government guaranteed loans ) to buy and own a significant market share of the UK's Public Services. The German Golden Share method would have prevented this, but that was far too simple for Thatcher to get her head round.
Sterling ? I'm a bit like yourself, I've no idea as I've never really thought about it. I just don't see any benefits in restricting where you can and cannot trade currency and securities, even if the EU would like us to think there is. As I understand it, the EU say that once outside the EU, the UK's standards on banking oversight might slip and so they can't risk UK based euroclearing transactions. Take that to its logical conclusion, and no currencies would be allowed to be traded oustide the currency's country.
But the EU and the ECB haven't exactly covered themselves in glory with their oversight of Italian and Spanish banks and Greek debt, so I can't help thinking it's just more EU bullying and sour grapes - but then I would.