Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
JPRouve said:
It's in fact one way to do it, since you can ask for an extension of the negotiation period. But what I meant is that if you really want to be in the single market until 2020(basically the end of the current budget), you have the possibility to negotiate for it and make the concessions needed.
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In that case I agree with what you meant, although in actuality we simply don't know yet.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The reason I brought up Africa was to prove there is further to fall which is what I said in my first post on the subject but it continues to be disregarded , not to say they should be lucky that they are not as poor as Africans.
This discussion started about the economics of the vote, if somebody thinks the Uk will be economically better off by voting Brexit then yes I think they are stupid.
But economics was not the only reason for the vote. Xenophobia, sovereignty and nationalism played a much bigger part which is not touched on in this particular discussion.
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I rest my case.

Ekkie Thump said:
It is designed to do neither. I am not denying the existence of a great deal of poverty in this country, nor do I in the slightest amount believe that somehow this society is equal or that many millions aren't desperate or that they haven't been shafted for generations. The notion that things can't get worse is the thing I am objecting to. Not that they should be thankful they aren't in the bloody congo, but that it isn't necessarily in people's best interests to inadvertently go in that direction. Your insinuation that asserting things can get worse means I and others don't wish for them to get better or that desperate people should somehow be grateful is a shameful distortion of the position I hold. My position is that Europe is, has and will continue to be a fig leaf for this country's problems and that the inequality you and I both fervently resent finds its nexus in this countries institutions, administrations and policies. The axe you grind is aiming for the wrong neck.



Here's your problem. You are entirely unwilling to grant reasonableness to your interlocutor and instead bring to the table a vast array of preconceived notions about who they are and how they arrive at their decisions. You then ironically accuse them of the self same thing with regards to vulnerable people.

Education, time, space and access to resources and information is severely lacking in impoverished communities. In no way does this society provide an equitable portion to each. This is part of what being impoverished actually means. Being uninformed does not equate to people being a bit dim, it equates to having a lack of information and a lack of access to it. This is a terrible thing. In no way is it sneering to point it out, it's complacent and alarming to pretend the problem isn't there. I know exactly what having barely enough to get by on an exhausting 40 hour week in a two bed flat with 4 kids actually means. Where I can't afford a computer, the local library's shut down and where the primary nagging pressing concern is a never ending line of rent, food, shoes.
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A cursory trawl through Paul's posting in this thread reveals nothing less than a barely concealed contempt for a section of our society and it is he that I am addressing primarily. His latest charming example..

Paul the Wolf said:
Anyone who votes for their own downfall is dim.
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Ergo he is not of course. What he can't seemingly comprehend is that nobody has willingly voted for their downfall in regards to Brexit whether he thinks they have or not. The uninformed are dim and deserving of nothing but what they get. So let's lose the bolded hyperbole.

You're right of course about what's lacking in many communities. I know this well as I have spent my working life in them and I'm not pretending anything regarding what problems do or do not exist. I have seen adults object to the building of new educational facilities for their children because this was seen as a threat. Some people might struggle to comprehend this whilst others might realise why. So there's no pretence from me but rather the notion, going back to my original contribution here, that people can be perfectly well informed by their circumstances and act accordingly. Certainly informed enough to make a perfectly valid decision, as valid as anybody elses, in a binary vote such as Brexit. You might not like it, you might speculate they are wrong, but speculation is what it is and to dismiss that choice as an uninformed one as opposed to those who voted otherwise has become a well worn and rather elitist refrain. That's an arrogant stance for me even as a remainer. As far as the Brexit vote goes I would prefer to respect the choices made by others and to understand them as opposed to dismissing them as mere uninformed folly.
 
Barca84 said:
You're right of course about what's lacking in many communities. I know this well as I have spent my working life in them and I'm not pretending anything regarding what problems do or do not exist. I have seen adults object to the building of new educational facilities for their children because this was seen as a threat. Some people might struggle to comprehend this whilst others might realise why. So there's no pretence from me but rather the notion, going back to my original contribution here, that people can be perfectly well informed by their circumstances and act accordingly. Certainly informed enough to make a perfectly valid decision, as valid as anybody elses, in a binary vote such as Brexit. You might not like it, you might speculate they are wrong, but speculation is what it is and to dismiss that choice as an uninformed one as opposed to those who voted otherwise has become a well worn and rather elitist refrain. That's an arrogant stance for me even as a remainer. As far as the Brexit vote goes I would prefer to respect the choices made by others and to understand them as opposed to dismissing them as mere uninformed folly.
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It is either uninformed or stupid for christs sake. You can understand why someone made an irrational choice and even sympathize with that choice without giving that choice the legitimacy of supposedly being 'informed'. How was it informed? They like everyone else were told by the vast majority of experts and economists that Brexit would be hugely economically damaging especially for the poorest in society. Either they didn't hear that advice (in which case they weren't informed) or they heard it and chose to disregard it due to their own life experiences in which case they made a stupid decision which will damage their lives even further.

So because someone is suffering at the bottom of society (something I have enormous sympathy for) that means that any choice they make has to be respected even if it's a choice to make their own (and everyone else's) lives harder as a result? I don't think so. You can have empathy for people and still think they made a stupid decision. It would be more condescending to act like they can't be accused of stupidity just because they're poor. You may have noticed we've applied that 'stupid' tag equally across all stratas of Brexiteer society and wealth.
 
Barca84 said:
I rest my case.



A cursory trawl through Paul's posting in this thread reveals nothing less than a barely concealed contempt for a section of our society and it is he that I am addressing primarily. His latest charming example..



Ergo he is not of course. What he can't seemingly comprehend is that nobody has willingly voted for their downfall in regards to Brexit whether he thinks they have or not. The uninformed are dim and deserving of nothing but what they get. So let's lose the bolded hyperbole.

You're right of course about what's lacking in many communities. I know this well as I have spent my working life in them and I'm not pretending anything regarding what problems do or do not exist. I have seen adults object to the building of new educational facilities for their children because this was seen as a threat. Some people might struggle to comprehend this whilst others might realise why. So there's no pretence from me but rather the notion, going back to my original contribution here, that people can be perfectly well informed by their circumstances and act accordingly. Certainly informed enough to make a perfectly valid decision, as valid as anybody elses, in a binary vote such as Brexit. You might not like it, you might speculate they are wrong, but speculation is what it is and to dismiss that choice as an uninformed one as opposed to those who voted otherwise has become a well worn and rather elitist refrain. That's an arrogant stance for me even as a remainer. As far as the Brexit vote goes I would prefer to respect the choices made by others and to understand them as opposed to dismissing them as mere uninformed folly.
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I don't know what case you are resting, those people can be poorer and will be because of Brexit so there is further to fall, not that they will be living in a mud hut and drinking water from a puddle in the road.

In the binary vote that was Brexit, in which possible context would anyone be better off economically by voting Brexit, it's not speculation , it's guaranteed that the UK will be worse off and when the country is worse off the people who are the poorest will lose the most. Maybe I'm arrogant here, well if and when I'm wrong please let me know and when these people are better off in a few years time because they voted Brexit I'll congratulate them.

Being a remainer and sticking ones head in the sand hoping that some miracle will happen is not going to change anything, living in cloud cuckoo land is not going to make it better, the way things are going the pound will be under €1.10/£1 by the end of the week - then some bright spark will say that helps with UK exports forgetting that the UK imports more than it exports and thus you are worse off, why oh why oh why.
 
Can anyone give me a sensible estimate of how much prices of goods and services will rise in the UK over the next 3-4 months? The pound is super low right now which makes it attractive to spend money in the UK for me as things are cheaper than Scandinavia and I'm getting more pound for my kroner.
 
horsechoker said:
Can anyone give me a sensible estimate of how much prices of goods and services will rise in the UK over the next 3-4 months? The pound is super low right now which makes it attractive to spend money in the UK for me as things are cheaper than Scandinavia and I'm getting more pound for my kroner.
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Anyone that could do that would soon be a billionaire horsey. I would have thought the exchange rate would be at least as important to you as UK inflation, and the pound could go up or down according to Brexit Talks news, US and EU interest rates, or domestic inflation, as if that is much more than expected then interest rates will rise, and the pound with them.
Many on here will scream 'the pound will fall for certain', but the holders of billions and billions of pounds are better judges, and they would have sold more if they were as certain themselves.
 
Kentonio said:
It is either uninformed or stupid for christs sake. You can understand why someone made an irrational choice and even sympathize with that choice without giving that choice the legitimacy of supposedly being 'informed'. How was it informed? They like everyone else were told by the vast majority of experts and economists that Brexit would be hugely economically damaging especially for the poorest in society. Either they didn't hear that advice (in which case they weren't informed) or they heard it and chose to disregard it due to their own life experiences in which case they made a stupid decision which will damage their lives even further.

So because someone is suffering at the bottom of society (something I have enormous sympathy for) that means that any choice they make has to be respected even if it's a choice to make their own (and everyone else's) lives harder as a result? I don't think so. You can have empathy for people and still think they made a stupid decision. It would be more condescending to act like they can't be accused of stupidity just because they're poor. You may have noticed we've applied that 'stupid' tag equally across all stratas of Brexiteer society and wealth.
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It really is views such as this that make me despair. When are the majority who favoured remain going to realise that the major reason for rejection was not that people were uninformed. In large part it was the the issue of non belief. The majority of the country (of those that voted) simply did not believe that the experts and the politicians were telling the truth whichever side they were on. It was not simply disbelieving the 350 million per week on the side of the bus. The elite establishment of all colours had taken the public for granted for too long and a backlash was almost inevitable. And was it any wonder.

Not confining myself simply to Brexit lets examine some of the spouting of the informed and the so called experts.

In the late 80's Mr Major advocated we joined the ERM. Of course he and his treasury experts knew it was in our best interests. Then of course we have Mr Blair and his 'weapons of mass destruction'. The experts got that right and made the world a safer place. Lets move on to Mr Blairs pledge of 2005 to give the country a vote on EU membership if there was a significant change in the constitution. Ah but the Lisbon Treaty did not count did it. Fast forward to 2010 and Mr Cleggs pledge that tuition fees need not be increased. Then Mr Osborne telling the country that if there was a vote to exit the EU disaster would immediately befall the country. Interest rates would rise, house prices collapse and within weeks there would be the need for an emergency budget. I must have been asleep or on holiday when those events happened. And lets not forget the world economic collapse of 2010 when virtually every world leader and economist were patting themselves on the backs for the wonderful global capitalist market they had facilitated.

Now of course the remain agenda in respect of Brexit has altered to 'ah you wait and see' we are all doomed in the future. But what has altered to make anyone who voted to leave the EU to believe they have made the wrong decision. Well domestic prices are rising most will say. Yes they are but thats nothing new and anyhow according to the official opposition party in this country isn't the real reason for the squeeze on public and individual expenditure down to that nasty 'austerity' programme. If only the reigns were relaxed we would all be so much better off......nothing at all to do with Brexit.


Yes it may well be that those who voted to leave turn out to be misinformed but at present the jury is still out and unfortunately it might, just might, be that those who voted to remain turn out to be the misinformed. I doubt it but it could happen. After all stranger world events than that have happened that the great and the good failed to predict correctly.
 
Virgil said:
It really is views such as this that make me despair. When are the majority who favoured remain going to realise that the major reason for rejection was not that people were uninformed. In large part it was the the issue of non belief. The majority of the country (of those that voted) simply did not believe that the experts and the politicians were telling the truth whichever side they were on. It was not simply disbelieving the 350 million per week on the side of the bus. The elite establishment of all colours had taken the public for granted for too long and a backlash was almost inevitable. And was it any wonder.

Not confining myself simply to Brexit lets examine some of the spouting of the informed and the so called experts.

In the late 80's Mr Major advocated we joined the ERM. Of course he and his treasury experts knew it was in our best interests. Then of course we have Mr Blair and his 'weapons of mass destruction'. The experts got that right and made the world a safer place. Lets move on to Mr Blairs pledge of 2005 to give the country a vote on EU membership if there was a significant change in the constitution. Ah but the Lisbon Treaty did not count did it. Fast forward to 2010 and Mr Cleggs pledge that tuition fees need not be increased. Then Mr Osborne telling the country that if there was a vote to exit the EU disaster would immediately befall the country. Interest rates would rise, house prices collapse and within weeks there would be the need for an emergency budget. I must have been asleep or on holiday when those events happened. And lets not forget the world economic collapse of 2010 when virtually every world leader and economist were patting themselves on the backs for the wonderful global capitalist market they had facilitated.
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Sorry but this is nonsensical. You're basically saying that because politicians got things wrong in the past, that no-one should feel any kind of requirement to listen to experts. Ok lets not, lets just make up shit as we go along. Right and now we have Donald fecking Trump in the white house and we're about to leave a hugely successful trading group that we rely on for our economic stability. Yeah, great job!

Virgil said:
Yes it may well be that those who voted to leave turn out to be misinformed but at present the jury is still out and unfortunately it might, just might, be that those who voted to remain turn out to be the misinformed. I doubt it but it could happen. After all stranger world events than that have happened that the great and the good failed to predict correctly.
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No. The reason I can say that with such absolute certainty, is because there is simply no reasonable outcome where supposed economic benefits of this madness somehow outweigh the economic costs. At a time where our government have been starving the NHS, education services, care services, police and god knows what else of funding, we're now going to have to find tens of billions of additional pounds while simultaneously lowering our GDP. Even the Brexit politicians have pretty much all pivoted to a position of 'well one day we can recover, and we'll be free!' and such bollocks.

Britain is seriously fecked. Even if we reversed article 50 it would still cost us huge amounts of money.
 
horsechoker said:
Can anyone give me a sensible estimate of how much prices of goods and services will rise in the UK over the next 3-4 months? The pound is super low right now which makes it attractive to spend money in the UK for me as things are cheaper than Scandinavia and I'm getting more pound for my kroner.
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The pound will rise or fall or stay the same.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You'll be pleased to know it has actually happened before the end of the week.

Next up, inflation through the roof, put interests rate up and then people can't afford to repay the interest on their loans, brilliantly thought out
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I wonder what the exchange rate is on the ground. High season in Spain for example so a good time to lower the rate just a tad more. In July my sister exchanged 100 euros in the UK and got 80 quid.
 
rcoobc said:
To be fair it's the most constructive suggestion so far. The early days of what could eventually be a sensible relationship
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its the same cherry picking deal of old, repacked in a different way
 
Same old. Brexiters promise to public things that they won't be able to deliver. It's either hard border with Ireland or Custom Union prevails, everyone knows that. However, tactic in demonizing EU further in front of their own cheerleaders aka "We think it is unacceptable having a physical border and it is who EU doesn't want to agree to our fantasy deals" might buy them some time. Points scoring at this stage is simply pathetic, but that they don't realize it will not get them far once shit hits the fan.
 
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With the Brexit fee, we're essentially paying for the next years membership even if we aren't opting to taking the place.

(This is analogous to taking a ski-trip with friends. 10 people all agree to pay £900 to go on a ski trip. At the last minute, one person drops out. But everything has already been paid for, so do the 9 remaining people pay £1000 each instead, or does the person that dropped out pay their share even though they can't go on it. In this case, we are agreeing to pay the £900 by leaving in this manner).

Staying attached to the EU's Customs Union allows us to enjoy some of the benefits of being in the EU that we are paying for.

This "untested" temporary customs union looks a lot like Turkey's option to me. Actually I think the BBC might be referring to the wrong thing when they say this is "untested".

https://infacts.org/briefings/turkish-option/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union–Turkey_Customs_Union

Of course once this transition period is ended, we again have to talk about what the customs border will look like. The only sensible decision would be to have the customs union in the sea between Britain and Ireland. Politically that's probably not possible for the Tories at the moment
 
rcoobc said:
With the Brexit fee, we're essentially paying for the next years membership even if we aren't opting to taking the place.

(This is analogous to taking a ski-trip with friends. 10 people all agree to pay £900 to go on a ski trip. At the last minute, one person drops out. But everything has already been paid for, so do the 9 remaining people pay £1000 each instead, or does the person that dropped out pay their share even though they can't go on it. In this case, we are agreeing to pay the £900 by leaving in this manner).

Staying attached to the EU's Customs Union allows us to enjoy some of the benefits of being in the EU that we are paying for.

This "untested" temporary customs union looks a lot like Turkey's option to me. Actually I think the BBC might be referring to the wrong thing when they say this is "untested".

https://infacts.org/briefings/turkish-option/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union–Turkey_Customs_Union

Of course once this transition period is ended, we again have to talk about what the customs border will look like. The only sensible decision would be to have the customs union in the sea between Britain and Ireland. Politically that's probably not possible for the Tories at the moment
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well if you start with a premis like that you can draw whatever conclusions you want...because funily enough we didnt arrange to take a ski holiday... we arranged to pay pensions, underwrite loans and fund long term indtastructure projects many of which are currently underway.

perhaps a more suitable analogy would be if you work for a company for 20+ years and are expecting a big pension should that company be able to change their mind and not pay you... because those are the sort of payments we are on the hook for

the only contributions being asked for are 2019 &20 because we signed up to a 7 year payment plan up to those dates

anyway people will pick the part that suits them but i think this is a reasonably decent FT analysis

https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a
 
sun_tzu said:
well if you start with a premis like that you can draw whatever conclusions you want...because funily enough we didnt arrange to take a ski holiday... we arranged to pay pensions, underwrite loans and fund long term indtastructure projects many of which are currently underway.

perhaps a more suitable analogy would be if you work for a company for 20+ years and are expecting a big pension should that company be able to change their mind and not pay you... because those are the sort of payments we are on the hook for

the only contributions being asked for are 2019 &20 because we signed up to a 7 year payment plan up to those dates

anyway people will pick the part that suits them but i think this is a reasonably decent FT analysis

https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a
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Indeed, I've read every article the FT has on the brexit bill as far as I know

Not sure what we can do about the EU Pensions
 
rcoobc said:
Indeed, I've read every article the FT has on the brexit bill as far as I know

Not sure what we can do about the EU Pensions
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The EU could budget properly, move to defined benefit system, reduce wages or freeze pay until the deficit is closed, put more money into the scheme in the future.

The UK is 1 country out of 27, so the other 26 are going to have to deal with the future internal consequences of the UK leaving including poor budgetary practices like unfunded commitments.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
The EU could budget properly, move to defined benefit system, reduce wages or freeze pay until the deficit is closed, put more money into the scheme in the future.

The UK is 1 country out of 27, so the other 26 are going to have to deal with the future internal consequences of the UK leaving including poor budgetary practices like unfunded commitments.
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The EU (as far as I know) are budgeting properly. The EU's stance is that, the UK leaving shouldn't mean that the other countries have to pay more in the next few years.

All of that, as a reaction to the UK leaving would be ridiculous. It would clearly show that the UK are the suppliers of the gravy train and have been taken advantage of.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
The EU could budget properly, move to defined benefit system, reduce wages or freeze pay until the deficit is closed, put more money into the scheme in the future.

The UK is 1 country out of 27, so the other 26 are going to have to deal with the future internal consequences of the UK leaving including poor budgetary practices like unfunded commitments.
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Not to be a pedant, but I think you mean from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension scheme.
 
If you ask me the EU should allow the UK to leave the EU without any compensation or/and deal (whether its transitional or permanent). That is what the UK signed for when they voted for Brexit.

Sure the EU budget will take a hit and countries like my own will probably end up net contributors. Hopefully there will be enough business moving from the UK to the EU to compensate to some of that.

This will be a big test for both unions however it is something that its needed. The EU need to develop beyond the grasp of the 'enemy within' (the UK never really liked the concept of a unified Europe) and it cant afford having a third country constantly meddling in its affair. Meanwhile the UK will return to the role of a trading outpost which is closer to Asia and the US then to the very continent it makes part off.

In 15 years time the UK might be considered of getting an FTA with the EU.
 
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