So the question goes back, would you pay £1500 per person in your family for Brexit?What a ridiculous question.
So the question goes back, would you pay £1500 per person in your family for Brexit?What a ridiculous question.
So the question goes back, would you pay £1500 per person in your family for Brexit?
My guess is, a lot of people would still have voted for Brexit. You cannot underestimate the power of nationalism.Brexit is going to cost around £100bn. Probably more, but we'll start with that figure.
That's £1500 for every man, woman and child in the UK. Note the children aspect.
How many would have voted Leave if they had to personally pay that. A £6k bill for a family of four.
Just to say, I'm genuinely a bit shocked by this.What a ridiculous question. And where do you get the confident prediction of £100bn + from? Everything I've seen quotes a range of scenarios but nothing close to that figure.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...busier-negotiating-with-itself-than-eu-brexitA transition phase of three years, such as that proposed by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, would take Britain comfortably through to the end of the current EU budget cycle in 2019-20. The bulk of the up to €100bn (£90m) currently demanded as a financial settlement relates to unfunded commitments known as reste à liquider (RAL). If meeting these obligations can be disguised as part of the transition arrangements rather than an exit bill, then compromise may be possible.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/But member states appear to have ignored the Commission's own advice by demanding €100bn (£85bn) from the Government, a sharp hike in the original demand of €60bn.
The inflated bill deepened the rift between Brussels and Downing Street. A leaked report of a Downing Street dinner with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker accused Theresa May of living in “another galaxy”, prompting the Prime Minister in turn to accuse EU politicians and officials of seeking to disrupt the General Election.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-how-much-cost-UK-exit-payment-European-UnionIn a new report by the UK in a Changing Europe initiative, Professor Iain Begg said that reports suggest that the demand from the EU could exceed €100 billion (£88 billion).
The LSE research fellow said that this sum is close to the gross amount, after deducting the UK rebate, that Britain was expected to pay into the EU budget over the span of the 2014-20 financial framework.
Professor Begg said: “Unsurprisingly, messages from the UK side dismiss these claims which, it has to be emphasised, no-one on EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s team has formally made.”
Good on you. At least you are not hypocrite as opposed to other expats residing in Barcelona who voted Brexit.It's a ridiculous and hypothetical question. And you're asking someone who voted to remain. Think on.
I have already paid that in taxes so they can use thatBrexit is going to cost around £100bn. Probably more, but we'll start with that figure.
That's £1500 for every man, woman and child in the UK. Note the children aspect.
How many would have voted Leave if they had to personally pay that. A £6k bill for a family of four.
No. The point I made is that some people, rightly or wrongly, believe it can't get worse for them. I don't believe for a minute, from anything that you've posted that you have an understanding of that nor any empathy for those who find themselves in that position. Quite the opposite in fact.
So you've missed my point entirely. Dumb comes in many guises.
So does everyone earning over £15k. Unfortunately this is a new tax added on to it.I have already paid that in taxes so they can use that
Just to say, I'm genuinely a bit shocked by this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...busier-negotiating-with-itself-than-eu-brexit
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-how-much-cost-UK-exit-payment-European-Union
Whatever you read, you should know the bill we are in for.
Nah it's existing taxes tbf, if a transitional agreement is reached the divorce bill will just be paid as part of normal EU budget contributions and the government will pretend they drove the price down. The problem of course is that we've put some proper dumb shits in charge of negotiations so it's hard to assume they'll take a responsible approach here.So does everyone earning over £15k. Unfortunately this is a new tax added on to it.
Amazing people baulk at the idea of paying a one off £1500. The wider economic pain will probably be £500-1000 per year.
£85bn (which is now £90bn thanks to the fall in the pounds) is only what we pay the EU as an exit fee. The wider cost will be far more. But let's break dow what you said.I can link a similar number of articles speculating a bill much lower. 5 minutes gets you...
http://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2017/€60-billion-brexit-bill-how-disentangle-britain-eu-budget
http://bruegel.org/2017/03/divorce-settlement-or-leaving-the-club-a-breakdown-of-the-brexit-bill/
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-uk-willing-to-pay-40bn-brexit-divorce-bill
And whatever one reads one should also learn to discern between a euro and a pound sign? Genuinely shocked here.
Even if you assumed I was only talking about the exit fee - which I wasn't - is £90bn not "close to" £100bn?And where do you get the confident prediction of £100bn + from? Everything I've seen quotes a range of scenarios but nothing close to that figure.
"We will categorically not give the European Union €60bn in one lump sum"I can link a similar number of articles speculating a bill much lower. 5 minutes gets you...
http://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2017/€60-billion-brexit-bill-how-disentangle-britain-eu-budget
http://bruegel.org/2017/03/divorce-settlement-or-leaving-the-club-a-breakdown-of-the-brexit-bill/
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-uk-willing-to-pay-40bn-brexit-divorce-bill
And whatever one reads one should also learn to discern between a euro and a pound sign? Genuinely shocked here.
It depends on if we get the benefits of it. You are right though.Nah it's existing taxes tbf, if a transitional agreement is reached the divorce bill will just be paid as part of normal EU budget contributions and the government will pretend they drove the price down. The problem of course is that we've put some proper dumb shits in charge of negotiations so it's hard to assume they'll take a responsible approach to the negotiations.
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/An upfront figure of €60 billion had been circulating in Brussels. But more recent reports that the EU view of what to ask the UK to pay for is hardening have led Alex Barker of the Financial Times to calculate an upfront demand of between €91-113 billion.
Mr Barker thinks this would come down to roughly €55-75 billion net as Britain received money back. Other researchers have given ranges of €16-22 billion and €25-65 billion.
Obviously it's wrongly since the world evidences far greater depths of poverty on far greater scales than are found here - this isn't even up for question. It also isn't a difficult or elitist observation to make that the most vulnerable are often the least informed and that the least informed are often the most likely to make a mistake. Obviously your beef here is that you think Paul is undermining the dignity of the poor by calling them stupid and that the decision of those of them who voted to leave ought to be treated with at least understanding, if not respect. The truth is that you can do all this and still conclude that their decision was folly.
@Barca84 - you obviously still haven't got the point. No-one is saying that they should be thankful they are not in Africa. The point is that you said they can't fall any further - they can.
You seem to be making the assumption that all poor people voted Brexit , I doubt that. There are people from all walks of life who voted Brexit and people from all walks of life who voted remain and if you want me to have empathy for people who shot themselves in the foot, no I don't have any empathy but that doesn't mean I want the Uk to collapse either, it's just a logical conclusion.
I believe that @Barca84 is talking about the sentiment that you hit rock bottom, some people with good reason are convinced that they have nothing to lose because from their POV they have nothing or lost everything they could have cared about. In Africa the POV is different, rock bottom is different.
@Barca84 - you obviously still haven't got the point. No-one is saying that they should be thankful they are not in Africa. The point is that you said they can't fall any further - they can.
You seem to be making the assumption that all poor people voted Brexit , I doubt that. There are people from all walks of life who voted Brexit and people from all walks of life who voted remain and if you want me to have empathy for people who shot themselves in the foot, no I don't have any empathy but that doesn't mean I want the Uk to collapse either, it's just a logical conclusion.
I get his point that they may think they have reached rock bottom, my point is that they haven't.
Brexit is going to cost around £100bn. Probably more, but we'll start with that figure.
That's £1500 for every man, woman and child in the UK. Note the children aspect.
How many would have voted Leave if they had to personally pay that. A £6k bill for a family of four.
You were the one who brought up the Africa comparison Paul so you're being no more then disingenuous here. For what purpose other than to state that those in poverty can fall further I've no idea but it's bogus whatever the reason. And I've made no assumptions that "all poor people voted Brexit" Quite the opposite, stating only that the economic divide has played it's part, and it's there in b&w in my previous posts which at this point I cant be arsed to requote.
I think it's helpful to get past the "Brexit voter is stupid" narrative because, well, it's a bit stupid really isn't it? And until we do and get to some sort of genuine understanding of the complexities of the Brexit vote and the difficult questions it's posed the country will remain divided. But I've no interest in a debate where posts are disregarded or misquoted a mere handful of posts later nor, to be honest, with someone who doesn't have the ability, or desire, to empathise with a large section of society who thinks differently than yourself and someone who does, as evidenced throughout this thread, view them largely with contempt
Nope, but it all comes down to whether we are paying for a club we will no longer be in.Are we being asked to pay anything that we wouldn't have had to pay if remaining? I honestly don't know, but if we are, then what and why?
The most important document on the financial side of Brexit is the “position paper” of 12 June 2017. This should be read carefully. The annexes are especially important — here the EU has set out the heads of what will be affected by departure. There are no figures. There is, however, reference to methodologies and principles. The EU is saying, in essence, agree what needs to be covered and they will be covered, and whatever figure comes out at the end, will be the amount to pay. This way of working out an overall settlement amount has its attractions, and looks reasonable and fair. But it seems to horrify the UK.
As the FT reports elsewhere: “The point is a reminder of the EU’s demand that the two sides devise a methodology for working out the UK’s obligations, rather than discussing total sums. The UK has resisted that approach, fearing that agreeing to the wrong methodology might leave the UK exposed to an unexpectedly vast bill.” The scene is not difficult to imagine: ministers sitting there and staring, paralysed in terror of making a judgment call. One can understand why saying “no legal liability” ever more loudly seems a better option. Part of the UK’s problem is that it has done very little of its own work on the financial side of Brexit. Whether this was because of complacency (“no legal liabilities say our lawyers!”) or of lack of capacity, the EU has been able set the terms of this element of the process.
https://www.ft.com/content/69296fe6-51be-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb?mhq5j=e4The net figures are considerably lower — €60.2bn, according to the commission figures. Those calculations exclude the European Investment Bank. The sums in effect make good the EU’s 2014-2020 long-term budget, reducing the need for other countries to increase their contributions or face lower payments. They also include pension promises and other long-term EU liabilities (in total worth €83bn) that the bloc wants the UK to honour.
Nope, but it all comes down to whether we are paying for a club we will no longer be in.
I think this is the best analysis of it
https://www.ft.com/content/69296fe6-51be-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb?mhq5j=e4
But whilst we've been part of the EU, we get the benefits of EU membership. Membership of the EU single market, including the export services we provide (pretty much the only area other than defence where we export more than we import). Without that, what are we paying for?
I think you and Silva have got it right. It's not something I've been thinking about as most leavers want a quick exit. Still, hopefully common sense prevails!so long as the spending side for those projects etc in the UK will continue until 2020, and in order to pay it we will need access to the single market to continue until 2020, the 'transitional agreement' the UK government has said it wants?
The only relevant measure of poverty for anyone living in the UK is one taken against a UK income median. Period. This is the accepted method and underpins the Child Poverty Act for example. We do not measure child poverty in this country against the living conditions of a child in Africa for and nor should we as poverty is relative, we live in a fully developed and wealthy economy, and poverty is measured accordingly. My beef here, as you put it, is when people trot out these tired and frankly insulting old chestnuts of how people should be thankful they're not in the bloody Congo. It is designed to belittle and demean and to silence.
As for this idea that the most vulnerable are more likely to make wrong decisions based on a lack of information this attitude is sneering and ill informed in itself. You wrongly equate vulnerability with a lack of information (I suspect your definition of "information" here is simply the facts as you see them) Notwithstanding I'll point out that some of the most vulnerable people I have worked with have been the most informed and educated and had a far greater insight into their condition, and their circumstances, than any professional engaged in providing services to them. Besides condemning this as a sweepingly vague generalisation I would also strongly refute it as exactly what you claim it isn't - an elitist observation. It appears a manifestation of this narrative that those in poverty are so because, well, they're a bit dim really and what they need are the well informed to make their decisions for them. I'd suggest that even most of the very vulnerable are largely and adequately informed by the very existence of their daily lives, not the observations of those passing through or from afar, and that bar removal of their right to make decisions under rigorous process of the Mental Capacity Act they are in the best position to judge what is right for themselves.
But that's like seeing someone in Somalia that truly has nothing and telling him he can still sink further because people in the congo have less than him.The reason I brought up Africa was to prove there is further to fall which is what I said in my first post on the subject but it continues to be disregarded
It depends on if we get the benefits of it. You are right though.
2. This single financial settlement should be based on the principle that the United Kingdom must
honour its share of the financing of all the obligations undertaken while it was a member of the
Union. The United Kingdom obligations should be fixed as a percentage of the EU obligations
calculated at the date of withdrawal in accordance with a methodology to be agreed in the first
phase of the negotiations.
3. On this basis, the United Kingdom should continue to benefit from all programmes as before the
withdrawal until their closure under the condition that it respects the applicable Union legal
rules.
But that's like seeing someone in Somalia that truly has nothing and telling him he can still sink further because people in the congo have less than him.
I dont think thats his stance at all.But according to him everyone who earns below the median wage, ie 50% of the population is in poverty, it's meaningless whereas if the average wage is £10k higher than Spain for example, the people in Spain are much poorer than the UK but this is precisely what you are saying, the standard of living is higher in the UK than maybe in Spain so they are not as poor as they think they are.
The "having absolutely nothing" does not quite have the same meaning. If the food they are buying after Brexit is 20% more expensive then they have 20% less than absolutely nothing
I was also accused of calling everyone who is poor "a bit dim", then I pointed out that not all poor people voted Brexit. Odd.
Thing is, there are direct benefits, and indirect benefits.Here you have the official position of the EU:
Thing is, there are direct benefits, and indirect benefits.
I expect we'll get farming subsidies back, but we certainly won't get access to the Single Market, if we've left the Single Market.
Would you not say that remainers who voted for Cameron are perhaps dimmer than any exit voter?
If you want access to the market until 2020, you will have it. The problem is that your politicians sold an immediate exit.
I dont think thats his stance at all.
Would you not say that remainers who voted for Cameron are perhaps dimmer than any exit voter?
We don't know what transitional arrangement the uk will be asking for yet, neither do we know what the EU will agree to, or what it will cost, so how you can be so sure of what's going to happen I don't know.
If you want access to the market until 2020, you will have it. The problem is that your politicians sold an immediate exit.
Which is why I used the word "if".
That's such a lame excuse tho mate, you know it too. They need to put their hands up and show us who they are, they have no right to complain whatsoever.You mean in him granting a referendum, many people even including Farage, May etc didn't think there was much danger that the people would vote to leave.
So all we have to do is ask? Well I'm glad that's settled. All this speculation was starting to annoy me.