Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Paul the Wolf]

@I Believe
The Euro has been way ahead in 2nd place since it became a currency nearly 20 Years ago, and it was the DM before that - the GBP dropped below the Yen into 4th place before that but recovered to around level par more recently.
The pound will find it's level but it will be a lot lower than if it stayed in the EU so you're sort of arguing against yourself. The pound will suffer because it's out of the EU not because it's in it.

 

[I Believe]

This is simply untrue, the UK has never had to adopt the Euro - if it decides to reapply to the EU it will. It has not suffered because it is not in the Eurozone.

Sorry Paul crediting you with more acumen. I didn't say the UK was forced to adopt the euro , the British Government Chancellor Norman Lamont used the ERM to try to get some sort of linkage between the Pound and the euro going with a view to Britain eventually adopting the Euro, but it became a disaster because of currency speculators and has never been tried since.

My argument is Britain will suffer in the future if it retains Sterling and wants to be a leading light in an EU dedicated to ever closer integration.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

My argument is Britain will suffer in the future if it retains Sterling and wants to be a leading light in an EU dedicated to ever closer integration.

You must also then agree that it will suffer if it retains Sterling and leaves the EU.

I mean, your argument above is pure speculation that goes against 20 years of statistics. So suffer, or suffer, according your view of the World.

 

[I Believe]

I've just realised that I'm an absolute fool for even spending time in this thread again.

Self awareness, is a good thing, don't put yourself down!

 

[I Believe]

You must also then agree that it will suffer if it retains Sterling and leaves the EU.

No, not in the long term, in the short term, maybe, but long term no, that's why I voted to Leave!

 

[Kentonio]

No, not in the long term, in the short term, maybe, but long term no, that's why I voted to Leave!

Might you also be interested in some magic beans I happen to be selling at a price I think you'll find irresistable?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Sorry Paul crediting you with more acumen. I didn't say the UK was forced to adopt the euro , the British Government Chancellor Norman Lamont used the ERM to try to get some sort of linkage between the Pound and the euro going with a view to Britain eventually adopting the Euro, but it became a disaster because of currency speculators and has never been tried since.

My argument is Britain will suffer in the future if it retains Sterling and wants to be a leading light in an EU dedicated to ever closer integration.

No it tried to link it at the value it should have been but it meant because the value was far different at the time - it meant an enormous difference.

What do you think is going to happen if the UK drops out of the EU, the currency speculators will have the pound for breakfast, it will be a disaster, the Uk as a power in world trade will be finished for many years to come. Recessions etc are recovered from in relatively short period of time - this will be cataclysmic in comparison and then you say you voted leave because you fear the Uk may suffer for not being in the Euro whereas the exact opposite has been proved to be the case since the Eurozone came into being. Foot ,shoot, self-harm again come to mind and all because of the lies.

 

[I Believe]

and it was the DM before that

That's the key Paul, the Euro is a stabilizing cover for the old DM, its present and future value is almost totally dependant on the Germany economy taking the strain!

The pound will suffer because it's out of the EU not because it's in it.

Initially that maybe true, at least whilst 'balance' is regained, but of course the Euro will take a big hit as well, losing a 65m market its'n't as big as UK losing some of the EU markets, but its big, especially when a number of the EU southern states economies are only just north of 'basket cases'.

Merkel may have to decide to help France... or save the southern economies, can't do both?
Suspect she might just go for France, but only if Macron gets his reforms through, if not, he may have to whistle for a while!

 

[JPRouve]

I'm really struggling here.

So the idea is that the EU in the future will take decisions that only suit the Eurozone which will make the UK suffer? Said decisions are supposed to be applied to the single market?

Following that premise, you don't want a deal that will give you access to the single market, you want to stay out of it and its rules? That's fine for me.

 

[I Believe]

whereas the exact opposite has been proved to be the case since the Eurozone came into being.

Can't believe this.. are you saying the euro-zone is the saviour of the pound?
For goodness sake man remember the crash, if anything it was the other way round. This is not you Paul, I don't recognise this person who is replying, what have you done with Paul the Wolf!

 

[I Believe]

I'm really struggling here

Yes, I've gathered that!

 

[JPRouve]

Yes, I've gathered that!

Well, you said that you were talking about fact and now you are sharing an opinion that is based on nothing. So I apologize if I struggle to follow you.

 

[I Believe]

Well, you said that you were talking about fact and now you are sharing an opinion that is based on nothing. So I apologize if I struggle to follow you.

No sorry you've missed out a few posts.

The original fact was that Britain retains the pound sterling within the EU (at present)

I was then asking people how they thought this would affect its future, if it stayed within the EU, with the EU moving to ever greater integration.
I then went on to give my opinion, of how I thought this would be detrimental to the UK if it stayed within the EU, I specifically said it was an opinion, not fact and invited others to comment or add their opinions.

You then went on about it being irrelevant but did not specify why you thought this was irrelevant.
You then started talking about the UK affecting another currency, don't know where that came from?

My simple point was that in the future as the EU was moving to ever greater integration, Britain still using another major currency could lead to problems when the EU had to take decisions that would be necessary to support the Euro currency, but may harm the pound sterling, because both currencies are traded on world markets with the dollar in particular and rates between these continuously vary, as much as anything due to speculators.

I was not claiming it was an insurmountable problem, but the key factor here is the EU's majority desire for greater integration, this is not Britain's desire, so we might as well get off the EU bus, before key decisions on currency, amongst other things, need to be taken and which because of the different destinations envisaged, would cause even greater road blocks, which ultimately would have to be overcome by majority voting and at that point Britain would lose out.

I truly believe that if both Britain and the EU can sort out their current differences amicably then we can be good friends and allies, perhaps even better than before. The problem is we want different things (well 17.4 m do) than the EU, so we go our separate ways, so that we can remain friends!

Again apart from the first bit, this is my opinion, its not fact

 

[JPRouve]

Oooh, Spanner, that was nasty, now stop stamping your feet and show me some real facts, not opinions, not bullshit, just facts, for example;

Britain is not in the euro-zone, this means it is in the minority of countries within the EU 28 members

Lets debate this fact and its possible bearing on Britain's future if it were to stay in the EU, what positives or negatives can be drawn from this fact?

So this is not the original post?

 

[I Believe]

So this is not the original post?

Yes I think it is, not to you but to Massive Spanner!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That's the key Paul, the Euro is a stabilizing cover for the old DM, its present and future value is almost totally dependant on the Germany economy taking the strain!



Initially that maybe true, at least whilst 'balance' is regained, but of course the Euro will take a big hit as well, losing a 65m market its'n't as big as UK losing some of the EU markets, but its big, especially when a number of the EU southern states economies are only just north of 'basket cases'.

Merkel may have to decide to help France... or save the southern economies, can't do both?
Suspect she might just go for France, but only if Macron gets his reforms through, if not, he may have to whistle for a while!

Can't believe this.. are you saying the euro-zone is the saviour of the pound?
For goodness sake man remember the crash, if anything it was the other way round. This is not you Paul, I don't recognise this person who is replying, what have you done with Paul the Wolf!

The Euro was a fantastic innovation. I was ecstatic when it came into being, life became so much simpler, then we had borderless trading , oh joy! Until you've lived through the previous incarnation close up you don't appreciate it.
If what you say is true why are you so worried about Germany taking the strain.

We're back to who's going to lose the most - at least you've recognised that the Uk will lose more than the EU, now as I said before - the UK will lose over 50% of its customers if trade stops. So assuming that happens to maintain the same level it has to find double the customers it has left.
Now to give a few ideas of countries that supply the UK, I've already said that Germany is the top one with 7.6% so all it needs to do is replace the 7.6% with other customers.
France is 7.1%, Italy is 5.1%, Spain is 4.1% it's miniscule in comparison , that's all they have to replace the Uk trade with - how can a country survive a 50% loss of customers, if it was a company it would go bust overnight.

Your basket case southern economies could be dreamland if the Uk commits suicide.

I didn't say the Eurozone was the saviour of the pound, I said the Uk flourished for the most part while the Eurozone existed despite not being in the Euro and had done very well coming out of the crash..

So by you voting to leave, you have effectively voted for two options - 1 - not EU members but still want single market etc which in reality means you pay more but have no say which is exactly what you don't want - which leaves the second option which is a crash out of the EU and longterm severe economic damage, also which I presume you don't want

 

[Full bodied red]

Last one for a couple of weeks....

I think we should add the CHF and, perhaps, the YEN to the major currencies - the CHF because it always has been and always will be a ' safe haven ' and the YEN because the Japanese economy is right up there with the world's biggest, even if not the ' best performing '....

Having said all that - I've always believed that currency rates ( whichever ) are controlled more by spivs and speculators than economic fundamentals, so although Wilson's famous ' pound in your pocket ' explanation doesn't hold water when it comes to actually paying for imported things, it's the spivs and speculators who are mostly to blame for ALL currency fluctuations.

 

[JPRouve]

Last one for a couple of weeks....

I think we should add the CHF and, perhaps, the YEN to the major currencies - the CHF because it always has been and always will be a ' safe haven ' and the YEN because the Japanese economy is right up there with the world's biggest, even if not the ' best performing '....

Having said all that - I've always believed that currency rates ( whichever ) are controlled more by spivs and speculators than economic fundamentals, so although Wilson's famous ' pound in your pocket ' explanation doesn't hold water when it comes to actually paying for imported things, it's the spivs and speculators who are mostly to blame for ALL currency fluctuations.

Finally, we are on the same side.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Last one for a couple of weeks....

I think we should add the CHF and, perhaps, the YEN to the major currencies - the CHF because it always has been and always will be a ' safe haven ' and the YEN because the Japanese economy is right up there with the world's biggest, even if not the ' best performing '....

Having said all that - I've always believed that currency rates ( whichever ) are controlled more by spivs and speculators than economic fundamentals, so although Wilson's famous ' pound in your pocket ' explanation doesn't hold water when it comes to actually paying for imported things, it's the spivs and speculators who are mostly to blame for ALL currency fluctuations.

Wilson's pound in your pocket doesn't hold water because he said it after he'd just devalued the pound and imports did cost a lot more, it's the timing.
Enjoy your trip.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

What are they being deprived of? Paying an exorbitant fee for something they will still get for free post Brexit.

The EU prevents independent trade deals I would have thought you knew that already Paul, seems you re not keeping up!

The EU fee is less than 0.5% of our GDP.

And it won't be free post brexit either..

On WTO tariffs alone, we will pay more, a lot more. WTO tariff for the majority of fresh food is 35%. We import 40% of our daily food intake, most from the EU, around £40 billion a year.. The cost of those tariffs alone would be 14 billion, which is, I am sure you are aware, more than we pay in EU fees.

Free? Bullshit.

Not sure why I was tagged in here, but as you like to shout about facts, you ignored me last time.


Lets go again with your bullshit.

 

[C3Pique]

Exactly that is my point we would no longer be one of the big 4, if we remain inside the EU and retain Sterling as our currency, can you imagine the jollification around the EU when Mrs Merkel and Macron in particular have to tell their respective populations, "sorry folks we cannot do x, y or z because Britain objects that such actions will devalue the pound, so we are not taking this action and instead its the Euro that's being devalued, so be careful where you choose to

And thus we come to the crux of the situation: this, as most of your 'facts', is pulled from your imagination, and has no basis in reality.

 

[I Believe]

as most of your 'facts'

Read the rest of the posts, this is an opinion, not a fact, I said that earlier, do keep up!

 

[C3Pique]

Read the rest of the posts, this is an opinion, not a fact, I said that earlier, do keep up!

I regard both with the same level of credibility.

 

[I Believe]

you ignored me last time.

Yes no wonder!

The British EU fee is slightly higher than 0.5% of GDP, but I wont argue with that as its in the right ball park!

The rest involves speculation and does not take into consideration the British 'take' on tariffs that we would charge in return, net values are required, so go away and sort that one out, then it might be worth listening to what you have to say.

 

[I Believe]

I regard both with the same level of credibility.

Then what's your beef?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Yes no wonder!

The British EU fee is slightly higher than 0.5% of GDP, but I wont argue with that as its in the right ball park!

The rest involves speculation and does not take into consideration the British 'take' on tariffs that we would charge in return, net values are required, so go away and sort that one out, then it might be worth listening to what you have to say.

You do realise the tariffs are the tax paid by the purchaser of the goods, ie UK companies who will charge their customers in the UK - I think Brexiters continue to make this mistake, heard this so many times on here. The British Brexit public are being conned yet again with more lies and they're too stupid to realise.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Another old chestnut from David Davis today. 90% of world growth will be outside the EU.
BongoBongo Land has increased its annual GDP from $100 to $150 a whopping 50% increase.

BongoBongo Land are selling a product at £100 with a 50% discount
The EU are selling the same product at £52 with a 10% discount

Where do you buy the product:
Leavers: BongoBongo Land of course, they offer a bigger discount
Remainers: the cheapest of course, the EU

 

[I Believe]

The Euro was a fantastic innovation

I'm sure it was, even the EU wouldn't invent a new currency for the hell of it... or would they?

why are you so worried about Germany taking the strain.

I'm not, but I think the Germans may do if they cannot get the Southern Economies operating effectively and they can't get Macron to deliver in France!

at least you've recognised that the Uk will lose more than the EU,

I accept initially, unless there is a transition period, that may happen, but the losses to the EU overall is still significant, yes Germany might be able to stand 7.6% loss but I seriously doubt, France, Italy and Spain will be dancing up and down with what their losses would be? As Tusk said 'no winners, only losers" Once again a transition period might be the answer, how long I don't know, how longs a piece of string?

Personally if there is a transition involving payments and EJC oversight etc., then I'd walk away, but as you say wiser heads may prevail, even if they get 'lopped-off' afterwards by the 'angry mob' (as you described them).

Brexit is a watershed moment for all concerned, as a result Britain will come to grips with an idea whose time has come, the EU might at last begin the internal and necessary reforms it needs, especially if it truly does want further integration. Then the various economies of the 27 countries will have to have a better balance between them, if not the then new Euro State will become effectively in all but name, a new Franco/German Empire, or possibly, if Macron bites the dust, a 'Greater Germany', and to be fair the Germans will deserve it, they do everything better than everyone else, especially penalty shoot outs

Both of the above in Britain and the EU, will of course be under new management.

 

[I Believe]

You do realise the tariffs are the tax paid by the purchaser of the goods

And this is not the case in the EU? give it a rest Paul!

 

[I Believe]

Another old chestnut from David Davis today. 90% of world growth will be outside the EU.
BongoBongo Land has increased its annual GDP from $100 to $150 a whopping 50% increase.

BongoBongo Land are selling a product at £100 with a 50% discount
The EU are selling the same product at £52 with a 10% discount

Where do you buy the product:
Leavers: BongoBongo Land of course, they offer a bigger discount
Remainers: the cheapest of course, the EU

Price isn't everything is it Paul, quality, delivery, aftersales service, all count as well don't they, you really are losing your touch!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I'm sure it was, even the EU wouldn't invent a new currency for the hell of it... or would they?



I'm not, but I think the Germans may do if they cannot get the Southern Economies operating effectively and they can't get Macron to deliver in France!



I accept initially, unless there is a transition period, that may happen, but the losses to the EU overall is still significant, yes Germany might be able to stand 7.6% loss but I seriously doubt, France, Italy and Spain will be dancing up and down with what their losses would be? As Tusk said 'no winners, only losers" Once again a transition period might be the answer, how long I don't know, how longs a piece of string?

Personally if there is a transition involving payments and EJC oversight etc., then I'd walk away, but as you say wiser heads may prevail, even if they get 'lopped-off' afterwards by the 'angry mob' (as you described them).

Brexit is a watershed moment for all concerned, as a result Britain will come to grips with an idea whose time has come, the EU might at last begin the internal and necessary reforms it needs, especially if it truly does want further integration. Then the various economies of the 27 countries will have to have a better balance between them, if not the then new Euro State will become effectively in all but name, a new Franco/German Empire, or possibly, if Macron bites the dust, a 'Greater Germany', and to be fair the Germans will deserve it, they do everything better than everyone else, especially penalty shoot outs

Both of the above in Britain and the EU, will of course be under new management.

And this is not the case in the EU? give it a rest Paul!

You keep ignoring facts, why, you really can't be this stupid, nobody can be this stupid. You just don't like what you're reading. It's pointless, Farage has brainwashed you and there's no hope.

And there's only one o in losing!

 

[I Believe]

You keep ignoring facts, why, you really can't be this stupid, nobody can

Right back at you Paul

Thanks for the spelling tip!

 

[Stanley Road]

This is simply untrue, the UK has never had to adopt the Euro - if it decides to reapply to the EU it will. It has not suffered because it is not in the Eurozone.
Sorry but this is a weak excuse to justify the referendum result .
The Pound remaining as one of the three major currencies is highly debatable with a cliff edge departure so there you go again - the UK shooting itself in the foot again.

Look back to the 50s and 60s and see what happened to the pound then.

The USD and the Euro are by far the major world currencies, the pound has been competing with the Yen for quite some time for 3rd and then the CAD and AUD have emerged plus the Chinese Yuan. The Uk seems determined to drop down the ladder, it has to stop living in the past.

Re the first pargraph, the general consensus in this forum just after the crash ended was that the uk was being held back by the eurozone. Jaz was a big champion if this thought and so were other people that worked in the city / finance who posted on here.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Right back at you Paul

Thanks for the spelling tip!

This Brexit business reminds me of someone I worked closely with. He was a multi - millionaire , doing well , one day he decided to make a monumental change because he thought the grass was greener. I said you would be mad to do what you're planning, no you're wrong he says, dozens of other people told him he was making a mistake - but he got enough "yes men" around him to give him peace of mind that he was doing the right thing. His initial attempts fortunately came to nothing and everyone thought he had given up. Suddenly a couple of years later he announced out of nowhere that he had done the dreadful deed.
Within 3 years he had lost everything and will be paying back to the banks for the rest of his life.

Have seen similar stories quite often over the years, Brexit is not a gamble that things can be better, it is a certainty that it won't - you can quote me on that in a few years.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

The British EU fee is slightly higher than 0.5% of GDP, but I wont argue with that as its in the right ball park!

The rest involves speculation and does not take into consideration the British 'take' on tariffs that we would charge in return, net values are required, so go away and sort that one out, then it might be worth listening to what you have to say.

So you don't understand the WTO, another one to add to the list of things you make up as you go along.

The WTO has a list of tariffs, its all freely available for download. If we go through the WTO, our IMPORTS will go up by fixed amounts. I used a simple one, the 35% is not up for negotiation, that is the WTO tariff for fresh food. That is, under wto, our food will go up by that amount (and because importers will want more profit, more than the 35% tariff they pay).

That is just food. I use that one because, unless you plan on starving, that is one we will be paying without question. And its more than we currently pay.

So again your claim we get trade for free is utter bollocks.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Re the first pargraph, the general consensus in this forum just after the crash ended was that the uk was being held back by the eurozone. Jaz was a big champion if this thought and so were other people that worked in the city / finance who posted on here.

Sounds like before my time on here but if that was the case how were the Uk posting much better figures than the EU much more quickly. Which way will the figures go after the Uk leaves, I know where my money would be.

 

[I Believe]

Brexit is not a gamble that things can be better

No I agree.. IN MY OPINION, its a gamble to prevent things getting worse.

That's why people millions listened to Farage (and you could argue to Trump).

Brexit means different things to different people, personally I don't want to stay on a bus that is going where I don't think the country should go and it seems the majority in the country also don't want it to go, so we have to get off!

Referendums rarely solve anything in a fair and just manner, they just settle things!

To me this is not about losing some business, over a short period, its about where we expect to be in 30 or even 40 years time. One of the things that is of great advantage to the Chinese system is they don't have fundamental changes of government, every five years, so they can think and plan in fifty or even a hundred year cycles, they know on their present pathways, they will be leading the US in economic terms by the end of this Century, unless Trump pulls the plug (intentionally or by accident), its done now, or it won't get done.

Despite the EU's aim to develop towards an integrated super-state and towards being an economic block to rival the US and China and/or South East Asia, it can't do it, because its own inertia as much as anything stops it happening, it needs a superpower (like Germany) to grab it by the scruff of the neck and make it work, but even if it were to get there, I suspect it will be too late, the US may slip back bit but there will be no stopping China.

You may be enjoying the good life, in France I take it, and others on here, are in other EU countries, well good luck to you \all, I have no gripe about that, you've left Britain, presumably from choice, if you were thrown out or forced out then perhaps a different story emerges, but you've made your choice, so now have 17.4 m others.

 

[I Believe]

So you don't understand the WTO, another one to add to the list of things you make up as you go along.

The WTO has a list of tariffs, its all freely available for download. If we go through the WTO, our IMPORTS will go up by fixed amounts. I used a simple one, the 35% is not up for negotiation, that is the WTO tariff for fresh food. That is, under wto, our food will go up by that amount (and because importers will want more profit, more than the 35% tariff they pay).

That is just food. I use that one because, unless you plan on starving, that is one we will be paying without question. And its more than we currently pay.

So again your claim we get trade for free is utter bollocks.

What if we import less food, by investing more in arable land, genetic crops, use of non nuclear power for running mass farming?

notice we are still using terms like bollocks, I thought we'd got past that phase, all you have to say is you disagree..simples!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No I agree.. IN MY OPINION, its a gamble to prevent things getting worse.

That's why people millions listened to Farage (and you could argue to Trump).

Brexit means different things to different people, personally I don't want to stay on a bus that is going where I don't think the country should go and it seems the majority in the country also don't want it to go, so we have to get off!

Referendums rarely solve anything in a fair and just manner, they just settle things!

To me this is not about losing some business, over a short period, its about where we expect to be in 30 or even 40 years time. One of the things that is of great advantage to the Chinese system is they don't have fundamental changes of government, every five years, so they can think and plan in fifty or even a hundred year cycles, they know on their present pathways, they will be leading the US in economic terms by the end of this Century, unless Trump pulls the plug (intentionally or by accident), its done now, or it won't get done.

Despite the EU's aim to develop towards an integrated super-state and towards being an economic block to rival the US and China and/or South East Asia, it can't do it, because its own inertia as much as anything stops it happening, it needs a superpower (like Germany) to grab it by the scruff of the neck and make it work, but even if it were to get there, I suspect it will be too late, the US may slip back bit but there will be no stopping China.

You may be enjoying the good life, in France I take it, and others on here, are in other EU countries, well good luck to you \all, I have no gripe about that, you've left Britain, presumably from choice, if you were thrown out or forced out then perhaps a different story emerges, but you've made your choice, so now have 17.4 m others.

Everyone's free to make a choice, or at least should be. If you've done this to get to somewhere in 30/40 years time I'm sure the young people on here will be forever grateful that the older people who are mainly responsible for the Uk leave vote even though they won't be around, very selfless I must say.

So if you think China is the big threat, why leave a union that protects its members and go out on it's own against a much larger problem, don't count on the USA, they really don't care about anyone other than themselves.

As I said, nothing is emotional about my opinion, its purely logical and imo the Uk are making the biggest mistake in the last 80 odd years.

 

[C3Pique]

With what labour?

Not to mention the fabled WTO, whose quotas which when be forced upon us will put a swift end to much of our own agriculture.