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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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MadMike said:
Absolutely. Part of the reason why I'm also pro-European and a remainer. EU membership has some pros and cons, but in my simple head the pros surpass the cons. The EU has many issues that still needs to resolve though, with or without the UK.

Having a central currency but with different economies of different gears and no centralised fiscal policy is, in the long term, a recipe for disaster. The inability for certain countries to devalue the currency by printing money (like the UK did) in the face of financial crises, nearly sunk the Med region. Interests among members conflict and they appear more competitors than partners at times.

Migration is another big problem. Both the legal and the illegal kind. A lot of people don't generally like the racial/ethnic profile of their country changing too fast. Change is inevitable, but the faster the rate of change the more people will kick back. Especially if there are financial crises when migrants will get inevitably scapegoated for it.

Call it xenophobia, racism, bigotry, or lack of education if you want... it's still a factor you can't ignore. It's a reality. We don't live in a Utopia. If we did Communism might have worked. Currently Schengen is under threat, borders are shutting across Europe and right-wing parties are gaining massive ground everywhere. We can keep harping on about how migration is beneficial all the way till the EU collapses and it won't matter one jot.
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The scales are tipped drastically towards the Pro side for Ireland.
Whatever about the problems of migration today it'll become a problem won't it? With the rising temperatures large parts of the World will become uninhabitable and immigration to northern europe will explode you'd expect. From a humanitarian side you'd want to say take them in and do your best for them. From a selfish side ... it'd probably be tempting to lock a lot out and basically leave them to die
 
MadMike said:
Tell that to the Irish, yeah? Seems to work a treat for them. From one of the poorest to one of the richest in Europe thanks to basically not asking businesses to pay corporation tax.

Don’t want to derail the thread further though. This is about Brexit. Happy to discuss this at length in another thread
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Stealing other nations taxes isn't the most amazing trick and a uniform corporation tax across Europe would put an end to it
 
Steven Seagull said:
I think millions of people don’t want to be part of a supranational dictatorship they know little about and don’t want to be part of the “ever closer union.” Lots of people want more control over immigration which they probably won’t get yet but leaving the EU in a sensible manner is a starting point.
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Steven Seagull said:
Been very confident thus far we would be heading toward a Norway style deal. Seemed the only common sense option.

Sad to see ultra brexiters get their own way as ramainers do nothing but gnash their teeth and complain. Very disappointing
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In fairness it is hard to stop gnashing teeth when we're told that we left to have more control over our borders and then the people who make that case then cite the 'Norway option', a country that is also signed up to freedom of movement and is also part of the Schengen agreement.

If all Remainers do is gnash their teeth I think you could class that as being extremely fecking polite.
 
Oscie said:
In fairness it is hard to stop gnashing teeth when we're told that we left to have more control over our borders and then the people who make that case then cite the 'Norway option', a country that is also signed up to freedom of movement and is also part of the Schengen agreement.

If all Remainers do is gnash their teeth I think you could class that as being extremely fecking polite.
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Is schengen part of the EEA agreement or something separate?
 
Steven Seagull said:
Is schengen part of the EEA agreement or something separate?
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Schengen is the open border agreement, it's included for new members even though some are currently out of it(Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia).
 
Mozza said:
Stealing other nations taxes isn't the most amazing trick and a uniform corporation tax across Europe would put an end to it
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Might not be the most amazing one but it’s certainly the oldest one and the chance of uniform corporation tax in EU is precisely 0%. It’s a pipe dream. Bear in mind we don’t even have uniform corporate taxes within the same country, think Isle of Man.

With no centralised federal budget and no large subsidies to the poorer regions, nations that already struggle to attract corporations would be fecked even harder as most of those corporations will set up in the countries with the best infrastructure to support them. I.e the more industrialised North. The South and the East would be fecked. They would rightfully never sign up to it.

Those subsidies exist in any country including the UK. It’s well known that money generated in London gets funnelled out to finance other parts of the country and subsidies are paid to Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the poorer regions of England. Which is fair of course.

However in the EU this would be politically very tricky. Public would detest it (“why are we funding the lazy X”) and right wing politicians would attack it for their personal gain. Something that happens when there’s no homogeneity and nationalism still exists within the Union. Also people would then point to the unevenness of income tax and the existence of personal tax havens as opposed to corporate tax havens. Will that become uniform too?

Let me put it this way. The state things are at now, it’d be far far FAR more likely that EU breaks up than such extreme steps to integration are taken. There's no appetite for tighter integration at the moment.
 
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caid said:
Tbh misleading people in the manner many of your politicians did should be criminalised imo. Borderline traitorous imo.
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Agreed. The fact they can barefaced lie and face no consequences, not even be called out on it, is baffling
 

This is what I was trying to explain to @JPRouve Think this will be the language on all these issues before we surrender.
 
Henrik Larsson said:
That's a really good point!



Well I'm pretty sure it was just another version of 'why are those foreigners taking over our jobs'. And it's exactly this irrational sentiment being used until infinity that has killed the more valid discussions.
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Well while there is unemployment there should be no need to recruit from outside, how is that not glaringly obvious ?
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Massive oversimplification. You need to match skills (and other factors) of the unemployed to the jobs available.
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On top of the fact that not all unemployed people can do all jobs, there's also the fact that not all unemployed people want to do all jobs. It might be a very small percentage of the population but there's always the people who'd rather be on the dole than do menial jobs for little money. Or people who's choice is forced by logic, like single mothers of little-to-none job qualifications that are better off being at home with kids than paying child minders or day care, while they go out to do menial jobs.

Then there's also the people in transition. If I lose my job in IT, I'd rather spend 2-3 months on the dole while I'm preparing for/attending interviews and training myself in the new tech that's in high demand. Much much better investment of my time in the long term than going at McDonald's to work as a burger flipper for 3 months. Something that has shitty pay, I can't really put in my CV and will also restrict my availability for interviews.

There'll always be a percentage of unemployed people and they'll always be some sectors with shortage. We've have a had shortage of medical staff (importing from abroad) for a couple of decades at least.
 
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.
 
Stanley Road said:
How long does it take to train someone to make a cappuccino? Pour a beer? Make hotel beds?
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By your simplistic process anyone unemployed would be given a job as brain surgeon ahead of a skilled migrant.

Likewise an unemployed brain surgeon would be expected to fill a barrista role on the oher side of the country ahead of a migrant.
 
MadMike said:
On top of the fact that not all unemployed people can do all jobs, there's also the fact that not all unemployed people want to do all jobs. It might be a very small percentage of the population but there's always the people who'd rather be on the dole than do menial jobs for little money. Or people who's choice is forced by logic, like single mothers of little-to-none job qualifications that are better off being at home with kids than paying child minders or day care, while they go out to do menial jobs.

Then there's also the people in transition. If I lose my job in IT, I'd rather spend 2-3 months on the dole while I'm preparing for/attending interviews and training myself in the new tech that's in high demand. Much much better investment of my time in the long term than going at McDonald's to work as a burger flipper for 3 months. Something that has shitty pay, I can't really put in my CV and will also restrict my availability for interviews.

There'll always be a percentage of unemployed people and they'll always be some sectors with shortage. We've have a had shortage of medical staff (importing from abroad) for a couple of decades at least.
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Fully agree.
 
Cheesy said:
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.
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The politicians are only advocating ending it because they know its all that is left to keep the public on their side.
 
horsechoker said:
The politicians are only advocating ending it because they know its all that is left to keep the public on their side.
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Pretty much.

Funny thing is...much as I don't think immigration is as pressing a problem as others would argue, I can sort of sympathise with the complaints of the right on this one. Yes, they're telling some fairly blatant lies, in that we do currently have control over non-EU migration and there are more balances available than they'd admit to the EU's freedom of movement, but I can have a vague hint of sympathy with the fact that, to an extent, Britain is very limited in how it controls EU migration.

But, at the same time, my sympathy has mostly fallen away due to the fact that it's clear those who advocate an end to freedom of movement just haven't thought out their position logically in terms of how it'll work economically and socially. Yes, they may want that to happen, but wanting something to work politically isn't an automatic guarantor of it happening...often sacrifices need to be made, and if we want to end freedom of movement we'd need to take an economic hit by severing ties with the EU, while risking increased violence in NI. Conditions which I'd say nullify any of the supposed benefits.
 
Cheesy said:
Pretty much.

Funny thing is...much as I don't think immigration is as pressing a problem as others would argue, I can sort of sympathise with the complaints of the right on this one. Yes, they're telling some fairly blatant lies, in that we do currently have control over non-EU migration and there are more balances available than they'd admit to the EU's freedom of movement, but I can have a vague hint of sympathy with the fact that, to an extent, Britain is very limited in how it controls EU migration.

But, at the same time, my sympathy has mostly fallen away due to the fact that it's clear those who advocate an end to freedom of movement just haven't thought out their position logically in terms of how it'll work economically and socially. Yes, they may want that to happen, but wanting something to work politically isn't an automatic guarantor of it happening...often sacrifices need to be made, and if we want to end freedom of movement we'd need to take an economic hit by severing ties with the EU, while risking increased violence in NI. Conditions which I'd say nullify any of the supposed benefits.
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The problem with the sympathy is that it should end when you take into account that it's a choice made by national politicians, it's not as if they were forced to join agreements or unions.
 
Stanley Road said:
Well while there is unemployment there should be no need to recruit from outside, how is that not glaringly obvious ?
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Because it is untrue.

We don't have zero unemployment here in Australia at 5.6% just as there is 4.1% unemployment in the UK plus the 5-10% hidden unemployment due to government regulations designed to drive people of unemployment payments to make the figures look better.

In both countries there are jobs that locals often won't touch either due to the pay, the conditions or the location. Either you raise the minimum wage considerably or you get people from other countries in to do these jobs.
 
Wibble said:
Because it is untrue.

We don't have zero unemployment here in Australia at 5.6% just as there is 4.1% unemployment in the UK plus the 5-10% hidden unemployment due to government regulations designed to drive people of unemployment payments to make the figures look better.

In both countries there are jobs that locals often won't touch either due to the pay, the conditions or the location. Either you raise the minimum wage considerably or you get people from other countries in to do these jobs.
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This for me is key. In France for example unemployment is fairly high but there is a lot of available jobs, the problem is that a lot of these jobs are in Iles-De France, basically Paris, and the wages make it near impossible for someone that is single and in province to move to Paris and find a place to live decently.
 
Cheesy said:
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.
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Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
 
MadMike said:
How exactly?
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We have the right to refuse anyone entry to be UK, EU national or otherwise on the grounds of public policy, safety or health.

We have a physical barrier with the rest of the world due to being an Island surrounded by water.

We choose not to do so because it benefits us to let people in. Those in power know this and it won't change post-Brexit.
 
Boogie Man said:
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
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Other EU countries because by extension it is their border too?
 
Boogie Man said:
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
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The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:
 
Cheesy said:
The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:
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:lol: Also surely you've in effect kept freedom of movement by doing that as your average European could just go to Ireland, go across the border to NI and hey presto they are now in the UK.
 
Boogie Man said:
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
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Probably never been to Ireland north or south at all
 
Rajma said:
Other EU countries because by extension it is their border too?
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Cheesy said:
The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:
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But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.
 
Boogie Man said:
But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.
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Because Ireland is an EU nation. If someone is still allowed to freely move between NI and ROI, then they can then freely move between Ireland and the rest of the EU. There's no reason for the EU to allow us to have this loophole while simultaneously ending freedom of movement with them.
 
matherto said:
We have the right to refuse anyone entry to be UK, EU national or otherwise on the grounds of public policy, safety or health.

We have a physical barrier with the rest of the world due to being an Island surrounded by water.

We choose not to do so because it benefits us to let people in. Those in power know this and it won't change post-Brexit.
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Nonsense, don't be obtuse.

The cases you describe hardly affect the volumes of migration we're talking about. The UK has a net migration of 300k people a year. The number of cases that fall into the "public safety" (mostly suspected terrorists, ex-convicts and the like) that you're talking about are maybe a handful of people per year.

You can call it "very limited control" if you will, but that's not what we mean by being in control. I'd suspect you knew that before I guess.
 
Boogie Man said:
But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.
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It's not about people, it's about goods and it's not about hard borders but controlled borders.
 
MadMike said:
Nonsense, don't be obtuse.

The cases you describe hardly affect the volumes of migration we're talking about. The UK has a net migration of 300k people a year. The number of cases that fall into the "public safety", mostly suspected terrorist and the like, that you're talking about are about a handful of people a year.

You can call it "very limited control" if you will, but that's not what we mean by being in control.
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Absolute twaddle you have had the ability to control your immigration fully. You know immigration is used as a prod to stir up the pleb population anytime an election or referendum needs to be won. Stop trying to gloss over that
 
Cheesy said:
Because Ireland is an EU nation. If someone is still allowed to freely move between NI and ROI, then they can then freely move between Ireland and the rest of the EU. There's no reason for the EU to allow us to have this loophole while simultaneously ending freedom of movement with them.
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They can't though. It doesn't matter if I'm flying from Dublin to Paris or London to Paris, I'd still have to jump through the exact same hoops!
 
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