...except them.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
JMR just saying on C4 news that 'no government would take self-harming acts'...and we're still in denial.
It's actually extremely debatable and "all" is definitely wrong. Abolishing tariffs is only a good thing if you definitely have the upper hand, you basically need to be at a point where your industry has almost all the advantages possible on its competition in terms of price, quality and capacity, you also need to have all the advantages in terms of R&D. That's almost never the case.
all three claims are unambiguously false. It sounds like a mercantilist way of looking at trade and we are over 200 years past that. The beauty of free trade is that you need non of these things and its still win/win.
Who exactly wins in your free trade scenario?
Not even debatable? Do you have any idea of economics? Sorry, not economics. Do you have any idea of common sense?
Can you expand on that? How does a smaller underdeveloped country that abolishes all tariffs benefit? Yes, they'll have cheaper superior imports than their homemade goods in the beginning, but what will keep their currency afloat once their own economy is dead (beyond retail) and all the land is sold?
I generally agree that free trade is a win/win between developed economies by the way, just don't agree that it is for everybody/everywhere/all the time.
in aggregate both countries gain wealth compared to a counterfactual where trade is hindered due to tariffs. My initial statement was a provocative one-liner, that lacks any nuance. Its still true to the extend that such a broad generalization can be true. I don't think that the brexit thread is the correct place to argue about the economics of trade in detail especially because most of this is pretty much basic stuff. Additionally I am in agreement with anyone who finds this "World Trade Deal" and generally the political leadership of Brexiteers ridiculous. Their numbers are plugged out of thin air, they are in denial about the political reality, they don't seem to understand what dropping out of the EU even means, they certainly don't understand the reality of FTAs and they don't even seem to understand what non-tariff barriers are.
The whole reason why I wrote this one sentence is because it irritates me, that there is so much opposition to free trade despite the unambiguous evidence that free trade is pretty freaking great.
And my issue was with the unambiguous nature of the statement and your first sentence is still wrong, it depends on the countries and their respective industries, education systems, level of infrastructure, among other things. Free trade is a good thing but it's not applicable to everything and everyone at every moment, it's a case by case consideration. It's like protectionism, sometimes it's good other times it's bad.
1) If every country in the world would drop all tariffs, every country would benefit. Thats not a controversal statement and backed up by the literature and understanding of the topic.
2) Doing it unilateral is somewhat different and slightly more nuanced.
feel free to question the second point. Thats fair enough. If you doubt the first statement, just read the mainstream literature about free trade. The benefits of free trade is one of the few unambiguous findings of economics.
Now we can to some extent agree but that's a significantly different statement, unilateral was a key point.
Point 1 only applies if everyone starts on a level playing field or reasonably level which is not the case worldwide.
Point 2 is suicidal doing it unilaterally.
Don't need theory - practical experience is much more useful. Minford is using theory. Let's all live in the real world.
Point 1 is "easily" fixable by requiring licenses/quotas for every domestic production that you deem vulnerable or crucial, domestically.
We're into non-tariff barriers territory there.
And you'd be talking about free trade agreements
Having purely a blanket no tariff scenario is suicidal as everyone would have to agree and in the real world they won't.
Fiscal differences, quality differences, cultural differences, Educational differences, key product constrains, economic cylcles, peace-war situations, etc...
Worldwide free trade is bollocks
Worldwide free trade is bollocks
Enjoyed this
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal
28 more no deal preparation documents published
28 more no deal preparation documents published
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...al/driving-in-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal
Quick look at the driving in the EU document, no mention of insurance which would surely no longer be valid, I remember Green cards from days of yore, what about the MOT , would this still be recognised?
What I especially like is each document starts with "in the unlikely event of no deal..."
At this moment in time it is about a 99.9% chance there is no deal.
Quick look at the driving in the EU document, no mention of insurance which would surely no longer be valid, I remember Green cards from days of yore, what about the MOT , would this still be recognised?
What I especially like is each document starts with "in the unlikely event of no deal..."
At this moment in time it is about a 99.9% chance there is no deal.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...13-4E9AC0DA923C/VoteLeaveCampaignElectoralLaw
Interesting debate to read, although typically no leavers turned up.
Interesting debate to read, although typically no leavers turned up.
At this point it doesn't really matter how anti brexit Labour is. I think at the end of the day, the Tories will vote for whatever agreement May comes up with. I have no doubt that some Labour MPs will vote with the government.
@Sweet Square tweet won't matter because I think the government will come up with the numbers eventually.
@Sweet Square tweet won't matter because I think the government will come up with the numbers eventually.
Corbyn and Labour are now totally irrelevant to Brexit. Too late.
If May sticks with Chequers there's no deal, if Mogg gets his way, no deal, even if Corbyn had a say he wants to leave the SM and CU which is another version of Chequers which also equals no deal.
The only way to have a deal is for the UK to cave in on its red lines and get that through parliament. No deal.
If May sticks with Chequers there's no deal, if Mogg gets his way, no deal, even if Corbyn had a say he wants to leave the SM and CU which is another version of Chequers which also equals no deal.
The only way to have a deal is for the UK to cave in on its red lines and get that through parliament. No deal.
Just 6 months.
IMO, the only 2 options is or no deal, or May saying "We were kidding! can we stay?"
Just watched this clip, had me chuckling:
Yes agree, they are realistically the only options left.
Corbyn's only hope of power is for the UK to crash out in March, the government to collapse and an election is called when it becomes apparent how many problems they have. So his strategy is for the UK to fail miserably and he picks up the pieces? Even then he's not guaranteed because he was pro-Brexit so the blame would also be on him as well as the Tories.
People over 50 shouldn't be able to access the internet.
If may stays through the brexit process she won't call an election
If may gets ousted then Johnson or mogg Or whoever will say there is no time for an election.... Preparing for brexit etc
Post brexit neither may or Johnson etc would call an election... They will be too busy "enacting the will of the people and making a success of brexit" (or some similar wording)
If there is / isn't .deal probably won't become clear till November / December...
Westminster will close for Xmas and by the time any deal / no deal is properly scrutinised the calls for a second vote will be useless as there won't be time to have the vote and any renegotiation so yeah it's either some very fragmented botched together last minute deal... Or more likley no deal and no immediate election
okDoes the deal need to ratified by all 27 other countries? And if even 1 rejects, the deal is off? Is that correct?
Yes, there will not be time for an election or a second referendum before March.
I was thinking a few months after March next year, if things get so bad after a no deal exit the government would be in such a poor position they may be forced to call an election. Who would really then want such a poisoned chalice?
I believe so... And as such probably some last minute bargaining is inevitable as well
Hungary might want some of the recent criticism rolled back... Quitaly might have some tweaks financially as may Greece... Perhaps Spain will throw a gibralta shaped spanner into the mix
I would say though if the deal gets that close extending article 50 by a few months to iron out any last issue might be an easy fix
Last edited:
Correct
haha omg how is everyone so relaxed about that then. It’s almost 100% not going to be passed (by all 27). To the point above, either going to be used to get some personal concession to vote yes, or just hold it all up to create a scene / prove a point / ‘punish’ the UK etc
I'm not relaxed about it - i think no deal is the most likely outcome at this stage which is an absolute disaster.
Genuine question, given what you know now, and what has happened since, would you still vote to leave?
Yeah and that’s not even taking anything the UK are (or aren’t) doing. Even if negotiations had gone swimmingly well, there would’ve still been minimal chance it would be agreed by all 27 other countries IMHO.
Well it may have been accepted by all members if the UK went into negotiations with a realistic approach to their negotiations - instead they have acted like the EU owes them something and have pranced about basically with no plan at all for months. It has been absolutely shambolic.
Tough one and I still ask myself this very often. I was a Leaver but marginally (yes I may have come across a very very strong aggressive leaver but that was for effect and for debate, I thought all debates were being stupidly shut down too quickly IMHO).
Depends is my answer, I genuinely am shocked at how incompetently it has been executed. I think Boris would’ve been a better PM in immediate aftermath IMHO, at least held to account too, it’s all too easy for Brexiteers now, they (politicians) can say ‘well we would’ve made it work, but process was held to randsom’.
If you’re telling me let’s reverse time, I think I’d still vote Leave because I’d bet on May not being PM in the new version of events. If there was another vote now, I’d definitely vote Leave (and would vote Leave now I think even if I had originally voted Remain), because I think not leaving now would tear the country apart.
Christ on a bike you have lost all credibility with that statement. fecking hell.
Same could be said about EU tbh. They’re acting as if it’s all going swimmingly with them. I told colleagues here in Canada who are intrigued, I said Feb 2016 swung it for me, when Cameron begged for some consessions (or even agreement that things need to be looked-at), and the EU basically laughed him out of the room. And now with Brexit and recent national elections they’re all suddenly talking seriously and finally admit they need a few rethinks. Raw arrogance.