Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I mean if sense prevails we'll avoid all that stuff but we've already seen prospective problems with vital medicines in the case of a No Deal Brexit. Some people don't seem to understand how genuinely disastrous a No Deal Brexit could actually be.

Read up on how supermarket supply chains work, then it might not seem quite as unbelievable.

Wasnt it already discussed that the only option in such case is to basically wave every EU shipment through? Deal or no deal.
 
By waving through I meant ignoring the paperwork, i.e pretending the UK is in the EU. Surely there has to be a way that with some emergency government order that can be achieved.

All the taxes have to be paid, possibly tariffs as well plus standards, list is endless. When I say coming back , they've got to return to the EU and they won't be waved through. Plus if it's no deal the UK will have very few licenced drivers/trucks and Europeans will be loathe to have their trucks stuck in the UK. It's fantasy talk by the Brexiters to think there will not be huge disruption.
So much depends on smoothness and no disruption.
The smallest disruption will have a major effect.

Additionally imagine if the UK did avoid all checks , physical and paperwork, it would be out of control in a very short space of time not withstanding counterfeit, smuggling etc.
 
All the taxes have to be paid, possibly tariffs as well plus standards, list is endless. When I say coming back , they've got to return to the EU and they won't be waved through. Plus if it's no deal the UK will have very few licenced drivers/trucks and Europeans will be loathe to have their trucks stuck in the UK. It's fantasy talk by the Brexiters to think there will not be huge disruption.
So much depends on smoothness and no disruption.
The smallest disruption will have a major effect.

Additionally imagine if the UK did avoid all checks , physical and paperwork, it would be out of control in a very short space of time not withstanding counterfeit, smuggling etc.
I understand , but to not be a plan for this when no deal was in fact a very likely option for a considerable time is extremely damning for the entirety of government and legislation. It's just baffling that it is indeed plausible nobody knows what they are doing.
 
Shenanigans again:
Guardian said:
Obscure pro-Brexit group spends tens of thousands on Facebook ads
Britain’s Future has spent £88,000 on pro-Brexit ads despite Facebook transparency promises
 
I understand , but to not be a plan for this when no deal was in fact a very likely option for a considerable time is extremely damning for the entirety of government and legislation. It's just baffling that it is indeed plausible nobody knows what they are doing.

I couldn't agree more.

Brexit has brought into focus the ability of the politicians and they're under so much more scrutiny than ever before. Very few seem to know what they are doing. Amateurish is too flattering.
 


I don't get this argument, it's a vote on her deal by proxy and would still be a humiliation. They can't be so deluded to think people will think otherwise.

Spending 2 years getting a deal to not put it to a vote is surely an even bigger feck up anyway
 
I couldn't agree more.

Brexit has brought into focus the ability of the politicians and they're under so much more scrutiny than ever before. Very few seem to know what they are doing. Amateurish is too flattering.
I feel like the actual cast of Yes Minister would be doing a better job today.
 
I feel like the actual cast of Yes Minister would be doing a better job today.

They couldn't do much worse.
The other problem is that as Brexit has been one lie after the other from start to finish, how could they admit openly that there was a problem even if they did realise there were problems.

Brexit is supposed to deliver their fantasy, how could they admit that it will be a nightmare. Most of them are still in denial now, not only the government but the opposition as well.
 
Benn supposedly pulling his amendment in the morning to ensure the government lose their vote. A real chance to avoid a hard Brexit and they’re throwing it away to try and force an election.
 
Benn supposedly pulling his amendment in the morning to ensure the government lose their vote. A real chance to avoid a hard Brexit and they’re throwing it away to try and force an election.

527 MPs ish MPs against no deal.

Need the WA voted down and Parliament to take control of the process. Hopefully they then will do the right thing and withdraw article 50.
 


Excuse my ignorance, but does this mean the the House of Lords will reject any motion towards a No Deal outcome?

If this is the case, can/will House of Lords be able to actually and legally prevent the No Deal scenario from happening? If this is the case then either we have May's deal, a new renegotiated deal or we stay in EU?
 
Excuse my ignorance, but does this mean the the House of Lords will reject any motion towards a No Deal outcome?

If this is the case, can/will House of Lords be able to actually and legally prevent the No Deal scenario from happening? If this is the case then either we have May's deal, a new renegotiated deal or we stay in EU?

I'm no expert but it just seems stupid in a sense that it's completely pointless. Unless a deal can be agreed which the EU accepts then no deal is always an option.

I don't know what the point of all this is. Is it just a politician filing a motion to protect their image in amongst all the bollocks going on? Because it all seems pointless to me.
 
If they cannot agree a deal and no deal has to be legally rejected aren't the options to extend Article 50 or not leave?

Why wasn't this opposition to No Deal stronger a year or so ago, they all let May vomit out "No deal is better than a bad deal"?
 
I'm no expert but it just seems stupid in a sense that it's completely pointless. Unless a deal can be agreed which the EU accepts then no deal is always an option.

I don't know what the point of all this is. Is it just a politician filing a motion to protect their image in amongst all the bollocks going on? Because it all seems pointless to me.

It's pointless unless whatever decision is made in the Commons has to go to Lords for approval before proceeding. If that is the case and Commons vote for No Deal, then Lords reject it, then it has to go back to Commons until they come up with something suitable, which can only mean extension to A50 or we remain. Of course if this Lords thing means nothing and it cannot be implemented then it's a complete non-story :wenger:
 
Business for Tuesday 15 January 2019
SUMMARY AGENDA: CHAMBER
11.30am

Prayers

Afterwards

Oral Questions: Health and Social Care

12.30pm

Urgent Questions, Ministerial Statements (if any)

No debate

Presentation of Bills

Up to 20 minutes

Ten Minute Rule Motion: Public Sector Supply Chains (Project Bank Accounts) (Debbie Abrahams)

Until 7.00pm

Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Adjourned debate on Question (14 January))

No debate

Statutory Instruments (Motions for approval)

No debate

European Union document (UK Participation in the EU Agency For Criminal Justice Cooperation (Eurojust): Post-Adoption Opt-in Decision) (Motion)

Until 7.30pm or for half an hour

Adjournment Debate: Rail services at Chester-le-Street station (Mr Kevan Jones)
 
It's pointless unless whatever decision is made in the Commons has to go to Lords for approval before proceeding. If that is the case and Commons vote for No Deal, then Lords reject it, then it has to go back to Commons until they come up with something suitable, which can only mean extension to A50 or we remain. Of course if this Lords thing means nothing and it cannot be implemented then it's a complete non-story :wenger:

Or we leave with no deal.
 
Assuming May looses the vote (which seems almost certain)
and Assuming Labour finally call a confidence motion (which again seems like it will have to happen)
lets also assume they loose the confidence motion (which again seems most likley)

What will Corbyn's policy be then - will he switch his support for a second referendum (which it seems pretty clear he does not want) and if not will Labour basically fall into as big a mess as the conservatives?

In reality the confidence motion will probably be called wendesday and debated (and defeated) thurdsay or friday - so he will also have to have a plan B to present on Monday ... it really is a big mess isnt it
 
Assuming May looses the vote (which seems almost certain)
and Assuming Labour finally call a confidence motion (which again seems like it will have to happen)
lets also assume they loose the confidence motion (which again seems most likley)

What will Corbyn's policy be then - will he switch his support for a second referendum (which it seems pretty clear he does not want) and if not will Labour basically fall into as big a mess as the conservatives?

In reality the confidence motion will probably be called wendesday and debated (and defeated) thurdsay or friday - so he will also have to have a plan B to present on Monday ... it really is a big mess isnt it

Yeah they will. People keep skipping over the fact Labours approach on this was agreed by delegates at conference. Everyone knows the order, half of the peoples vote lot probably voted for it!
 
Yes, around 7pm.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46868194

Benn's amendment is withdrawn too I see. Interesting very conflicted reactions to that on twitter

so its more important to play party politics (and hand may a bigger defeat) than it is to block no deal

yeah I think Corbyn and Labour are gonna get crucified in the long term over that one.

They will hand may a bigger defeat but they have also lost a big opportunity to do what they said was important which was stop us crashing out without a deal - its hypocrisy at best and downright pathetic partisan politic if we are being honest

i do think it will force labours hand ultimatley as well as after the big defeat they will have to call the no confidence motion - which they most probably loose and then they will have 2 days to formulate a new plan having thrown away the chance to force a motion blocking no deal - so basically its going to put corbyn in a position where he has to make a decision on officially backing a second referendum or not
 
Not surprised. If we end up crashing out without a deal, that one decision could have been exceedingly costly.

Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
 
I also don't get the HoL motion. The position seems to be 1 - we are not leaving without a deal, but 2 - we are definitely leaving on 29 March, and 3- we are not accepting the only deal on offer.

Baffling stupidity.

How are the EU supposed to deal with this idiocy?
 
Yeah they will. People keep skipping over the fact Labours approach on this was agreed by delegates at conference. Everyone knows the order, half of the peoples vote lot probably voted for it!
technically they voted to keep all options on the table - I'm not sure corbyn will switch to supporting a second ref if he does not get the election (which looks very unlikely) - probably carry on trying to keep all options open still somehow which as I say will be tough to hold the party together with that.

Perhaps May is gambling he will have to switch to supporting a second referenndum at which point she might call an election (to end the impasse) herself having basically forced labors manifesto to be apply to EU to extend A50 to run a second referendum - which to be honest might not be the most popular position in a number of labour seats.

that said the internal fights and splits (in both parties) over what their policy would be would be so fractious I wouldnt like to bet on the outcome as I could see many incumbents on both sides standing as independents