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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Mb194dc said:
Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
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that said do you think there is a majority to unilaterally withdraw A50 without a second vote - Im genuinely not sure there is... equally Im not sure there is a majority for a second vote (though a switch in official labour policy would bring this closer) and Im not even sure there is a majority for remain if it goes to a second vote - I cant even imagine how they would structure a second vote (2 options... 3 options... more... alternative vote?... not a clue other than most people wont be happy with it)
 
sun_tzu said:
that said do you think there is a majority to unilaterally withdraw A50 without a second vote - Im genuinely not sure there is... equally Im not sure there is a majority for a second vote (though a switch in official labour policy would bring this closer) and Im not even sure there is a majority for remain if it goes to a second vote - I cant even imagine how they would structure a second vote (2 options... 3 options... more... alternative vote?... not a clue other than most people wont be happy with it)
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I am 99% sure that if the alternative to withdrawing article 50 is "no deal" a vote in parliament to withdraw article 50 would get 500+ votes.

A second referendum is an awful idea. Would not have legitimacy with leavers, what would the question be?, the campaign would be bitter beyond belief and make the 2016 one look like a picnic.

MPs are focussed on "delivering Brexit" and "implementing the 2016 referendum result" when none of the options in front of them actually do that and especially not the WA. In fact all the options are abysmal. First step is them growing a pair and admitting that.

Even if we did just withdraw article 50 and admit failure there is still hope for leavers. The question of the EU would have to be revisited the in future and depending on developments within the EU we might be in a much better position.
 
Mb194dc said:
Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
Click to expand...

The danger here isn't that parliament is suddenly going to vote for no-deal, it's that the rank incompetence, arrogance and abject stupidity of the government could make us stumble unwittingly into that outcome. No deal is the default outcome, and the government still has huge power over what can and cannot be debated and voted on. Oh and there's only 74 days left.
 
sun_tzu said:
technically they voted to keep all options on the table - I'm not sure corbyn will switch to supporting a second ref if he does not get the election (which looks very unlikely) - probably carry on trying to keep all options open still somehow which as I say will be tough to hold the party together with that.

Perhaps May is gambling he will have to switch to supporting a second referenndum at which point she might call an election (to end the impasse) herself having basically forced labors manifesto to be apply to EU to extend A50 to run a second referendum - which to be honest might not be the most popular position in a number of labour seats.

that said the internal fights and splits (in both parties) over what their policy would be would be so fractious I wouldnt like to bet on the outcome as I could see many incumbents on both sides standing as independents
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When May loses tonight’s vote by 100plus then she surely has to implement a no deal exit.
She has categorically stated time and time again that no deal is better than a bad deal, well if she can’t get her deal through and according to her and her sheep, sorry supporters there is no option as The EU will not reconsider or renegotiate with The UK.

So are we are looking at a no deal exit? Will May surprise us all and win tonight’s vote? Will she do the honourable thing and walk away when she loses? Will Corbyn cross over the floor, bend May over slip her a nasty and say,
“there how’s that for an unexpected bit of cross party input”?
So many questions so much head scratching.
 
The Firestarter said:
I understand , but to not be a plan for this when no deal was in fact a very likely option for a considerable time is extremely damning for the entirety of government and legislation. It's just baffling that it is indeed plausible nobody knows what they are doing.
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To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entail and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
 
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stevoc said:
To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited to before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entails and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
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Precisely.
 
stevoc said:
To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited to before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entails and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
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Brexit means Brexit
 
I'll never forgive the vacuous cnut for her 'If you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere' line. Few things have ever summed up the Little Englander mentality better than that moment.
 
Melville Red said:
When May loses tonight’s vote by 100plus then she surely has to implement a no deal exit.
She has categorically stated time and time again that no deal is better than a bad deal, well if she can’t get her deal through and according to her and her sheep, sorry supporters there is no option as The EU will not reconsider or renegotiate with The UK.

So are we are looking at a no deal exit? Will May surprise us all and win tonight’s vote? Will she do the honourable thing and walk away when she loses? Will Corbyn cross over the floor, bend May over slip her a nasty and say,
“there how’s that for an unexpected bit of cross party input”?
So many questions so much head scratching.
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The EU will renegotiate if the red lines change significantly they've said as much. Extend and arrange a permanent custom union is an option that may actually pass and what May if she had sense would do.

I don't know if it was possible but they should have negotiated various options at the start that could have been voted on before the detailed discussions began.
 
sun_tzu said:
Brexit means Brexit
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Indeed, and thats about as much as most people politicians included understood in 2016. Three years later most people and politicians still don't seem to have much of a clue.
 
stevoc said:
Indeed, and thats about as much as most people politicians included understood in 2016. Three years later most people and politicians still don't seem to have much of a clue.
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It'll be a blue, white and red Brexit.
 
Smores said:
The EU will renegotiate if the red lines change significantly they've said as much. Extend and arrange a permanent custom union is an option that may actually pass and what May if she had sense would do.

I don't know if it was possible but they should have negotiated various options at the start that could have been voted on before the detailed discussions began.
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Yes but not the Corbyn/Starmer version of it.

Not a Customs Union, the Customs Union.
Single Market access with the 4 freedoms.

Therefore no end to FoM, no individual trade deals and still overseen by the ECJ . Still paying contributions .What's the point of leaving?
Fantasyland has finished.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but not the Corbyn/Starmer version of it.

Not a Customs Union, the Customs Union.
Single Market access with the 4 freedoms.

Therefore no end to FoM, no individual trade deals and still overseen by the ECJ . Still paying contributions .What's the point of leaving?
Fantasyland has finished.
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Immigration is going to be a key part of any trade negotiations anyway. I mean, what bargaining chips can the UK being to the table in negotiations with, say, Japan other than the offer of visas?
 
Gee Male said:
Immigration is going to be a key part of any trade negotiations anyway. I mean, what bargaining chips can the UK being to the table in negotiations with, say, Japan other than the offer of visas?
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It will certainly play a part with India and China. Most countries are interested in access to the whole of the EU, if the UK has left this attraction is no longer there.
What completely bemuses me is why little old UK thinks it will get better deals with any country than they already have through the EU.
 
So does the Caf reckon there’s any chance of a surprise win for May or is it as obvious a defeat as it seems?

Is it more interesting what she decides to do after losing?
 
Relfy said:
Going back to my original post/quote, the House of Lords have passed something essentially blocking a no deal scenario. All depends whether what they wish to implement can be done or not....Feck knows
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They can't prohibit no deal as that is the default that will occur if we don't take the deal or delay leaving or revoke A50.
 
Minimalist said:
So does the Caf reckon there’s any chance of a surprise win for May or is it as obvious a defeat as it seems?

Is it more interesting what she decides to do after losing?
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She'll lose but whatever deal any government brings back it will be voted down, there are too many divisions and I can't see parliament agreeing on anything.
 
Wibble said:
They can't prohibit no deal as that is the default that will occur if we don't take the deal or delay leaving or revoke A50.
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They could just legislate that the default position is that Article 50 is revoked unless a deal is agreed upon.
 
Kentonio said:
They could just legislate that the default position is that Article 50 is revoked unless a deal is agreed upon.
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Or more likley just insert a clause insisting the government takes all action in its power to avoid no deal... So they could force them later to revoke a50 but really pressuring the government to do it without explicitly forcing a vote on it
 
sun_tzu said:
Or more likley just insert a clause insisting the government takes all action in its power to avoid no deal... So they could force them later to revoke a50 but really pressuring the government to do it without explicitly forcing a vote on it
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I may be wrong but I think while the Lords can propose an amendment to a bill, or reject it, the commons can eventually over-ride these and force their legislation through. Where it's interesting is that it takes a year or so to go through the procedures, and the deadline will pass meanwhile. So presumably a no-deal brexit would occur by default while this was going on?
 
711 said:
I may be wrong but I think while the Lords can propose an amendment to a bill, or reject it, the commons can eventually over-ride these and force their legislation through. Where it's interesting is that it takes a year or so to go through the procedures, and the deadline will pass meanwhile. So presumably a no-deal brexit would occur by default while this was going on?
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Not sure... Commons could pass the motion though and thus force the government (I think)
 
When Mrs May loses the vote tonight, especially if by a large number of votes, she will announce either that, "I have tried my best to implement the outcome of the referendum, but Parliament wont back me, so I will ask the EU to cancel Art 50 and thereby cancel Brexit" or "I have tried my best..etc...etc... now the Government will prepare in earnest for a No Deal scenario on the 29th March". She will then (in either case) hunker down in No.10 and await the onslaught, daring each side to do their worst!

My money's on the former statement cancelling Brexit, because May knows no matter how ardent the Tory 'Leavers' are they will not split the party... the country however could be in for a torrid time in terms of day to day politics!
 
Maticmaker said:
When Mrs May loses the vote tonight, especially if by a large number of votes, she will announce either that, "I have tried my best to implement the outcome of the referendum, but Parliament wont back me, so I will ask the EU to cancel Art 50 and thereby cancel Brexit" or "I have tried my best..etc...etc... now the Government will prepare in earnest for a No Deal scenario on the 29th March". She will then (in either case) hunker down in No.10 and await the onslaught, daring each side to do their worst!

My money's on the former statement cancelling Brexit, because May knows no matter how ardent the Tory 'Leavers' are they will not split the party... the country however could be in for a torrid time in terms of day to day politics!
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There is of course a third option which is to request a delay to Art 50 in order to give both sides the opportunity to improve the so called deal.

That doesn't mean that I think that the EU will play ball but it is nonetheless an option.
 
Buster15 said:
There is of course a third option which is to request a delay to Art 50 in order to give both sides the opportunity to improve the so called deal.

That doesn't mean that I think that the EU will play ball but it is nonetheless an option.
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I do wonder how that option works though... All 27 have to agree and presumably some might only want to extend a very short time in order to allow it not to interrupt the EU elections... Some may even think meh let them crash out then they will be more desperate for a deal on any terms we offer...

But whatever they think there will need to be some time allowed to let them form that opinion and pass the legistlation... It's a guess but I'd say at least a more month if not more.
As such we probably need to ask bloody quickly and I'm not sure the government will do that...more likley run the clock down as much as possible before trying the may deal on a second vote at which point it might be too late to even try to extend
 
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