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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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If you believe that then there was no point in Tony Blair working his socks off trying to get us into the Euro! Come on lets talk sense here, the euro zone countries within the EU will determine the future path of the EU, in particular one that allows Germany to keep its products competitive, sure some of it may assist the UK, but not at the expense of the German economy. We have lost this battle with Germany, they are now the superpower in the EU, with Macron scrabbling like mad to hold on to their coat tails, the only chance he's got is the rise of the right in Germany will become a distraction for Merkel and she may take her eye off the ball, but I wouldn't count on it!


Not too sure what the current situation is in 2017 and with BREXIT on the horizon, but even without being in the Euro the UK had contingent liabilities and exposure of almost €150 billion to support the Euro and the ECB in 2012 according to this Research Paper of the Bruges Group.

Think about that !! €150 billion to get the EU off the hook if their Ponzi Schemes with the Greeks and the Italian Banks finally grind to a halt.

And yes, I know - the UK no longer has a AAA Rating, but after March 2019 will not have €150 billion of potential pay outs for a currency of which it isn't a member.



This Bruges Group paper by Bob Lyddon, who is an independent management consultant specializing in European banking, exposes the fact that the UK has a Maximum Possible Loss of €149.2 billion on current capital and commitments to the institutions involved in the financing of the EU and the euro. That does not include any exposure through the International Monetary Fund.


As one of two remaining large EU Member States with a AAA-rating the UK plays an important role in back-stopping the EU and the euro.


The largest exposure is €110 billion to the European Union, including a €60 billion exposure to the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism. A Member State’s guarantee of the European Union’s debts is joint and several, so if 26 Member States fail, the 27th pays everything.


The second largest exposure is to the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, €1.9 billion of paid-in capital and €35.7 billion of immediately callable, subscribed capital. The EIB views the UK’s contribution of €37.6 billion as representing 39.6% of its “Broad risk-bearing capacity”, even though the UK is only a 16% shareholder.


The third area of exposure is to the European Central Bank. The UK – through the Bank of England – has a risk on paper of only €1.6 billion, but the ECB counts the bullion and currency reserves of the National Central Banks into its own reserves and it spins a very large wheel in its operations. Those operations, it appears, are executed by National Central Banks as the ECB’s agent, whereby any losses are taken by the ECB. Losses of over €10 billion would eliminate the ECB’s capital: the ECB reportedly owns €40 billion of Greek government bonds, so a haircut of any size would eliminate its capital and cause it to call upon its shareholders. As such the UK, as an EU Member State, may have to bailout the ECB which would imperil the UK’s AAA rating.


The extra €35.7 billion of uncalled capital to the European Investment Bank is an on-going, unconditional and irrevocable commitment and a call upon all or part of it can be considered likely. As well as this, the exposure to the European Central Bank is a wild card risk to the United Kingdom.


 
We have a comparable voice and comparable financial contribution to the EU as Germany

No, we don't have the same voice because we are not in the euro zone, all the countries in the euro zone will set the agenda and pull in the same direction, it makes sense, if it happens to benefit us as well 'Yiphee' we've got some of the crumbs off the table lads lets go on the p***!.
Its true like Germany and I think Slovakia, we are the only countries who pay in more than we get out, we are not 'slurping much of the gravy', but we are making most of it!

This paranoia that Germany are running things for their own ends is all a bit sad really, where are they doing our businesses down through their aggressive and ruthlessly efficient business practices?

Sad but true!
The Germans are not doing our businesses down, in some cases they are helping to support them and they will do so after we've left the EU because its in their own interests but in other cases they are beating us to the punch (as they tend to do in football terms, in case you hadn't notice).
This is not a case of anyone doing us down, we do that quite well on our own, decades of serious under investment, in particular in training, years of chronic poor management, of companies rewarding senior management inefficiency, being unable to get to grips with the fundamentals of productivity, these are the things doing us down, not the Germans! All this will have to change after Brexit and as a country we tend to excel when our backs are to the wall Yes, its a risk leaving the EU, but its an even bigger risk, no its a certainty, that to remain we are committing ourselves to everlasting second division status in the EU.
 
Its true like Germany and I think Slovakia, we are the only countries who pay in more than we get out, we are not 'slurping much of the gravy', but we are making most of it!
I have no idea where you're pulling that from (somewhere the sun don't shine) but it's not true.

Sweden, France (who pay more than the UK), the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Austria, and Denmark are all net contributors. Slovakia is not. Ireland was also a (very minor) net contributor in 2016.
 
Slovakia is not

Said I wasn't sure about Slovakia! According to Macron's own publicity France net is zero, as much in as they get out, which he wants to improve!
Have you been looking at the EU's Court of Auditors reports? they rank alongside 'Hanzel and Gretal' as great European fairy-tales. Look at the independent figures... if you can find any!
 
Said I wasn't sure about Slovakia! According to Macron's own publicity France net is zero, as much in as they get out, which he wants to improve!
Have you been looking at the EU's Court of Auditors reports? they rank alongside 'Hanzel and Gretal' as great European fairy-tales. Look at the independent figures... if you can find any!
I've seen the financial report for 2016 which doesn't have that. Perhaps you can share where you saw that the UK and Germany are the only net contributors?
 
Perhaps you can share where you saw that the UK and Germany are the only net contributors?

Apologies, I was not being precise, I should have said the top two net contributors.

However my observation still stands though, we are making more of the gravy running in the gravy train, than we are at slurping it!

(my source was BBC News Channel, EU BUDGET page, under NET CONTIBUTIONS)
 
Apologies, I was not being precise, I should have said the top two net contributors.

However my observation still stands though, we are making more of the gravy running in the gravy train, than we are at slurping it!

(my source was BBC News Channel, EU BUDGET page, under NET CONTIBUTIONS)
Eh no, you were wrong, not "not being precise".
 
Apologies, I was not being precise, I should have said the top two net contributors.

However my observation still stands though, we are making more of the gravy running in the gravy train, than we are at slurping it!

(my source was BBC News Channel, EU BUDGET page, under NET CONTIBUTIONS)
You would still be wrong thought wouldn't you... Germany and France contribute more net than us... oh and our net contributions are like 0.25% of Gross national income - and I think its pretty reasonable to think any deal in the future is going to cost us at least that - infact the tumbling value of the pound has almost certainly cost us a lot more than that so far but hey rule britania and fek the facts and all that
 
Hi Paul, click bait got you again!

I can see you've obviously circled the date on your calendar, bet you can't wait, better order the brass bands now to avoid disappointment.

See everything's going as planned , another month's talks gone, no progress (except in Davis's pea-brain) as I said it would be. Tick tock.
 
Germany and France contribute more net than us...

Germany, France and Italy contribute more of the total EU budget, mainly because of the rebate, but the two biggest NET contributors are Germany and Britain, (according the BBC News Channel) at least for another 18 months, unless The EU agrees to a transition period, which probably they won't.
 
See everything's going as planned

Not sure its as planned, for most Brexiteers we should be out now, but Theresa has to put on a show to demonstrate how those nasty EU people are wanting to throw us out without a penny to our name, so in that sense it probably is going to plan.

Don't forget the British love an 'underdog' and where it started with us being portrayed as being unfriendly to the European's for wanting to leave our 'bosom buddies', now its becoming those nasty unelected EU Commissioners, wanting to 'tie us to the stake and give us a good lashing', what's the betting there will be a call here for a boycott of EU goods long before we leave, also just heard the White Cliffs of Dover have been saved for the Nation.
 
The UK is involved with 759 different cross-border treaties as a member of the EU.

Anyone who thinks we should be out by now is clearly someone who has no fecking clue just how difficult it is, and likely no real idea of how much a hard brexit will affect them personally.

And by anyone, I obviously mean you.
 
Not sure its as planned, for most Brexiteers we should be out now, but Theresa has to put on a show to demonstrate how those nasty EU people are wanting to throw us out without a penny to our name, so in that sense it probably is going to plan.

Don't forget the British love an 'underdog' and where it started with us being portrayed as being unfriendly to the European's for wanting to leave our 'bosom buddies', now its becoming those nasty unelected EU Commissioners, wanting to 'tie us to the stake and give us a good lashing', what's the betting there will be a call here for a boycott of EU goods long before we leave, also just heard the White Cliffs of Dover have been saved for the Nation.

It has always been the nasty people from the EU, that's what the government have used for years to conceal their own incompetence and the public lap it up because of their dislike of foreigners - yet another fly in the ointment is that when the Uk is finally out they are running out of people to blame.
 
Not sure its as planned, for most Brexiteers we should be out now, but Theresa has to put on a show to demonstrate how those nasty EU people are wanting to throw us out without a penny to our name, so in that sense it probably is going to plan.

Don't forget the British love an 'underdog' and where it started with us being portrayed as being unfriendly to the European's for wanting to leave our 'bosom buddies', now its becoming those nasty unelected EU Commissioners, wanting to 'tie us to the stake and give us a good lashing', what's the betting there will be a call here for a boycott of EU goods long before we leave, also just heard the White Cliffs of Dover have been saved for the Nation.

"Tieing us to the stake and give us a good lashing" - Seriously?

The UK can leave the negotiation table whenever they wanted. No one is forcing it to stay. Its not the EU's fault that Brexit is such a bad idea that needs to be postponed through a transitional period.
 
that when the Uk is finally out they are running out of people to blame.

Exactly Paul, you've hit the nail on the head, got it at last, well done. Successive British Governments over the last forty years have said, "its not us that's doing this its the EU" relatively recently of course "Its not us giving unrestricted access to anybody in the EU who fancies coming here.. its the EU", "its not us... its... not us.... oh shit, yes it is us now!
 
when the Uk is finally out they are running out of people to blame.

Don't be ridiculous Paul, there's single mums, benefit scroungers, the old, the fat, smokers, drinkers, drivers and the politically correct liberal left who can take the blame for anything we can no longer chuck at Europe.
 
Exactly Paul, you've hit the nail on the head, got it at last, well done. Successive British Governments over the last forty years have said, "its not us that's doing this its the EU" relatively recently of course "Its not us giving unrestricted access to anybody in the EU who fancies coming here.. its the EU", "its not us... its... not us.... oh shit, yes it is us now!

Exactly, no-one has unrestricted access to the UK, glad you finally admit it is all a lie and the biggest liar of all is May , the Home Secretary who wouldn't enforce the rules. Better tell the Brexiteers that they were lied to, they won't believe you though.
 
The UK can leave the negotiation table whenever they wanted. No one is forcing it to stay

Oh yes they are, all the remoaners are desperate for Davis and co. to hang on in there, remember Theresa herself voted to stay, so did Philip Hammond, they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea (well the Channel anyway). This is what's giving Barnier the edge, Theresa talks a good 'no deal better than a bad deal', but she doesn't believe it. She will cave in at some point and then come back home and fall on her sword, if that is done quickly say within twelve months) Jeremy Corbin will become British PM and Angela Merkel and Mr Macron will be pulling their hair out, not over trade, but defence! Out of the frying pan into the fire! If only a deal had been done with Cameron!
 
Exactly Paul, you've hit the nail on the head, got it at last, well done. Successive British Governments over the last forty years have said, "its not us that's doing this its the EU" relatively recently of course "Its not us giving unrestricted access to anybody in the EU who fancies coming here.. its the EU", "its not us... its... not us.... oh shit, yes it is us now!
Nah... the eu will have crippled us with a bad deal... it will still be their fault somehow
 
Don't be ridiculous Paul, there's single mums, benefit scroungers, the old, the fat, smokers, drinkers, drivers and the politically correct liberal left who can take the blame for anything we can no longer chuck at Europe.

I would like to see the benefit scroungers forced to go to work to fill the gaps left by the EU citizens that will leave, poetic justice
 
Oh yes they are, all the remoaners are desperate for Davis and co. to hang on in there, remember Theresa herself voted to stay, so did Philip Hammond, they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea (well the Channel anyway). This is what's giving Barnier the edge, Theresa talks a good 'no deal better than a bad deal', but she doesn't believe it. She will cave in at some point and then come back home and fall on her sword, if that is done quickly say within twelve months) Jeremy Corbin will become British PM and Angela Merkel and Mr Macron will be pulling their hair out, not over trade, but defence! Out of the frying pan into the fire! If only a deal had been done with Cameron!

That's the UK prorogative though. The EU has nothing to do with it.
 
Better tell the Brexiteers that they were lied to, they won't believe you though.
No Paul, for one moment there I honestly thought you had got it!.. The Brexiteers know they have been lied to, for years that's why 90% of them they voted for out! Its not rocket science, really its not!
 
Oh yes they are, all the remoaners are desperate for Davis and co. to hang on in there, remember Theresa herself voted to stay, so did Philip Hammond, they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea (well the Channel anyway). This is what's giving Barnier the edge, Theresa talks a good 'no deal better than a bad deal', but she doesn't believe it. She will cave in at some point and then come back home and fall on her sword, if that is done quickly say within twelve months) Jeremy Corbin will become British PM and Angela Merkel and Mr Macron will be pulling their hair out, not over trade, but defence! Out of the frying pan into the fire! If only a deal had been done with Cameron!
Nah... Corbyn will just hand over the armed forces and trident to the eu army as he will never use them anyway.... Merkel and macron will be over the moon
 
Its seems that the UK close relationship with the US has just been bombardiered. Is that the anomaly or is it an early sign of what's in store?

This is not so much about Brexit as about international corporate warfare when big corporates see their interests being threatened.

Our ministers got involved because of the jobs in N.I and reminded Boeing we had used them for our military defence contracts and that might have a future bearing. Boeing replied the UK might want to have pause and consider Boeing employs 16k workers in the UK for supply chain jobs. The jobs in N.I are 4k yet very important locally.

I am thinking the WTO might not be such a friendly place yet even without this there would have been an EU - US spat over Bombardier, a French aircraft concern. I think the EU is more relaxed as it is UK jobs at risk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bs-bombardier-hit-massive-us-tariffs-subsidy/
 
Fantastic... its sinking in at last! wowee!!

I've been saying that from day 1. The UK can leave the EU in a second. However the economy will be so devastated that no one apart from the hardest of Brexiteers would contemplate doing it. May I remind you that

a- unrestricted access to the single market was not a remainer's promise but a brexiter's promise. Boris said time and time again that the EU will be so desperate to sell prosecco and BMWs that the EU will be begging the UK to keep the status quo

b- TM ended up in power because the most prominent Brexiters in the tory party ended up backstabbing one another. Meanwhile the first thing Farage did was to resign from UKIP and go to Germany's embassy.
 
This is not so much about Brexit as about international corporate warfare when big corporates see their interests being threatened.

Our ministers got involved because of the jobs in N.I and reminded Boeing we had used them for our military defence contracts and that might have a future bearing. Boeing replied the UK might want to have pause and consider Boeing employs 16k workers in the UK for supply chain jobs. The jobs in N.I are 4k yet very important locally.

I am thinking the WTO might not be such a friendly place yet even without this there would have been an EU - US spat over Bombardier, a French aircraft concern. I think the EU is more relaxed as it is UK jobs at risk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bs-bombardier-hit-massive-us-tariffs-subsidy/

It has everything to do with business. That's something Brexiters can't comprehend. The US means business and can't care less of 'alliances' and 'friendships'. Just ask the South Vietnamese, Saddam Hussein or the Kurds of what a great friend the US can be in times of need. Hell, you can even ask the British politicians involved in the Suez canal mess while at it too.
 
There's no hope for you, is there.

Quite the contrary Paul 'We get our country back' (in more ways than one!).

Politicians in Britain for the first time since the second world war now after Brexit will have to act truthfully and on behalf of the people, not sticking it to the people because we/they are intelligent and the rest of you are just morons) and the first party or organisation that realises this will clean up. Jeremy Corbyn whilst I fundamentally disagree with his view of the world, at least when you vote for that guy (I wouldn't) you know what you are getting, that's what's making him appealing.
If anyone needs convincing look at 'project fear' that the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor both colluded in, and still are in some quarters, although to be fair Mark Carny has admitted we can not only survive outside the EU, but heaven forbid, even prosper.

It's a 'watershed' that's been a long time coming, but it will change politics in the UK for a long, long, time. If the EU and I admit that with Theresa and Phillip Hammond in charge they are likely to get the upper hand, but if they do seek to punish Britain, they also will be sorry for many decades to come!
 
This is not so much about Brexit as about international corporate warfare when big corporates see their interests being threatened.

Our ministers got involved because of the jobs in N.I and reminded Boeing we had used them for our military defence contracts and that might have a future bearing. Boeing replied the UK might want to have pause and consider Boeing employs 16k workers in the UK for supply chain jobs. The jobs in N.I are 4k yet very important locally.

I am thinking the WTO might not be such a friendly place yet even without this there would have been an EU - US spat over Bombardier, a French aircraft concern. I think the EU is more relaxed as it is UK jobs at risk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bs-bombardier-hit-massive-us-tariffs-subsidy/

Bombardier is Canadian (Quebec), not French. Another example of how it is "America first" in these types of scenarios (even with its friendly neighbour) and how deluded the likes of Liam Fox are. And I doubt the Chinese or the Indians will be exactly cuddly when we try to do a deal with them.
 
Bombardier is Canadian (Quebec), not French. Another example of how it is "America first" in these types of scenarios (even with its friendly neighbour) and how deluded the likes of Liam Fox are. And I doubt the Chinese or the Indians will be exactly cuddly when we try to do a deal with them.

this
 
Quite the contrary Paul 'We get our country back' (in more ways than one!).

Politicians in Britain for the first time since the second world war now after Brexit will have to act truthfully and on behalf of the people, not sticking it to the people because we/they are intelligent and the rest of you are just morons) and the first party or organisation that realises this will clean up. Jeremy Corbyn whilst I fundamentally disagree with his view of the world, at least when you vote for that guy (I wouldn't) you know what you are getting, that's what's making him appealing.
If anyone needs convincing look at 'project fear' that the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor both colluded in, and still are in some quarters, although to be fair Mark Carny has admitted we can not only survive outside the EU, but heaven forbid, even prosper.

It's a 'watershed' that's been a long time coming, but it will change politics in the UK for a long, long, time. If the EU and I admit that with Theresa and Phillip Hammond in charge they are likely to get the upper hand, but if they do seek to punish Britain, they also will be sorry for many decades to come!

No one is punishing anybody. Its business. They are only flexing their muscles (ie a far bigger market) to get a better deal. Rest assured that the US, India and co will do the same or even worse.

The US has just slapped a huge tariff on bombardier planes despite Canada/UK are their 'historical allies' and 'friends'. That's how the world works buddy.
 
Quite the contrary Paul 'We get our country back' (in more ways than one!).

Politicians in Britain for the first time since the second world war now after Brexit will have to act truthfully and on behalf of the people, not sticking it to the people because we/they are intelligent and the rest of you are just morons) and the first party or organisation that realises this will clean up. Jeremy Corbyn whilst I fundamentally disagree with his view of the world, at least when you vote for that guy (I wouldn't) you know what you are getting, that's what's making him appealing.
If anyone needs convincing look at 'project fear' that the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor both colluded in, and still are in some quarters, although to be fair Mark Carny has admitted we can not only survive outside the EU, but heaven forbid, even prosper.

It's a 'watershed' that's been a long time coming, but it will change politics in the UK for a long, long, time. If the EU and I admit that with Theresa and Phillip Hammond in charge they are likely to get the upper hand, but if they do seek to punish Britain, they also will be sorry for many decades to come!

Brexit really is a panacea, isn't it? Once again, I get the impression of zealots defending an article of faith. The shining city on the hill free of condescending elites. And Corbyn is as prone to obfuscate and make unrealistic promises as the rest, he just targets a different audience with his electoral bribes.
 
Quite the contrary Paul 'We get our country back' (in more ways than one!).

Politicians in Britain for the first time since the second world war now after Brexit will have to act truthfully and on behalf of the people, not sticking it to the people because we/they are intelligent and the rest of you are just morons) and the first party or organisation that realises this will clean up. Jeremy Corbyn whilst I fundamentally disagree with his view of the world, at least when you vote for that guy (I wouldn't) you know what you are getting, that's what's making him appealing.
If anyone needs convincing look at 'project fear' that the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor both colluded in, and still are in some quarters, although to be fair Mark Carny has admitted we can not only survive outside the EU, but heaven forbid, even prosper.

It's a 'watershed' that's been a long time coming, but it will change politics in the UK for a long, long, time. If the EU and I admit that with Theresa and Phillip Hammond in charge they are likely to get the upper hand, but if they do seek to punish Britain, they also will be sorry for many decades to come!

If the UK doesn't get a deal - they're on their own and if they think anyone outside the UK cares, they don't - if this happens all the doomsday scenarios and worse will happen. So to stop this happening they have to do a deal with the EU, so there goes "getting your country back" - as you said "devil and deep blue sea".
I have no more regard for Corbyn than I have for the Tory lot - I wouldn't trust him either.

The problem with Project Fear is that Brexiteers think any damage that could have happened because of the vote should have already happened by now and thus think they now are in the clear. Some of the bad things that have been forecast, like some devaluation, slowing down of growth ,inflation gathering pace etc have happened but this is only the tip of the iceberg if it is a hard Brexit. If the Uk get a deal you will see the economy improving, the pound regaining value - if on the other hand it is a cliff edge no deal , there can be no other outcome than "You ain't seen nothing yet".
 
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This is not so much about Brexit as about international corporate warfare when big corporates see their interests being threatened.

Our ministers got involved because of the jobs in N.I and reminded Boeing we had used them for our military defence contracts and that might have a future bearing. Boeing replied the UK might want to have pause and consider Boeing employs 16k workers in the UK for supply chain jobs. The jobs in N.I are 4k yet very important locally.

I am thinking the WTO might not be such a friendly place yet even without this there would have been an EU - US spat over Bombardier, a French aircraft concern. I think the EU is more relaxed as it is UK jobs at risk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...bs-bombardier-hit-massive-us-tariffs-subsidy/

If the US could extend that tarrif to all Bombardier's products, France would like it very much. They are the competition of Alstom and Dassault.
 
No one is punishing anybody. Its business. They are only flexing their muscles (ie a far bigger market) to get a better deal. Rest assured that the US, India and co will do the same or even worse.

The US has just slapped a huge tariff on bombardier planes despite Canada/UK are their 'historical allies' and 'friends'. That's how the world works buddy.
It has everything to do with business. That's something Brexiters can't comprehend. The US means business and can't care less of 'alliances' and 'friendships'. Just ask the South Vietnamese, Saddam Hussein or the Kurds of what a great friend the US can be in times of need. Hell, you can even ask the British politicians involved in the Suez canal mess while at it too.

I get the feeling we are going to have some fireworks with this Brexit business and it could become trade wars and protectionist because everyone is out for themselves.
So Jesus Corbyn comes in with his promises, the pound plummets, taxes up for the middle and to get his new tech industries off the ground we will need to stay out of the EU.
If they sincerely try our National Debt may well increase. It is not going to be pretty. Small manufacturers might fare ok yet watch those house prices!

@MoskvaRed - thks for putting me straight on Bombardier.
@JPRouve - good to know about Alstom and Dassualt, I think the latter makes Mirage Jets which are highly rated in military circles, at least when compared to the US F-35!
 
@Penna

I really enjoy this thread, we may all see things differently yet argue with logic and a minimum of baiting.
I expect that may be because of the 10 likes that are required to reach the main forum.
 
I get the feeling we are going to have some fireworks with this Brexit business and it could become trade wars and protectionist because everyone is out for themselves.
So Jesus Corbyn comes in with his promises, the pound plummets, taxes up for the middle and to get his new tech industries off the ground we will need to stay out of the EU.
If they sincerely try our National Debt may well increase. It is not going to be pretty. Small manufacturers might fare ok yet watch those house prices!

@MoskvaRed - thks for putting me straight on Bombardier.
@JPRouve - good to know about Alstom and Dassualt, I think the latter makes Mirage Jets which are highly rated in military circles, at least when compared to the US F-35!

Europe wont be on its own because we have each other. As a unified front we are in a better position to make trade deals from a position of strength.