Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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I guess it depends what you mean as "we". You or I might see our culture as benefiting from immigration. Steve from Harlow clearly perceives his culture as under threat.

And this thread has mistakenly largely painted the Brexit vote as almost wholly a protest vote confined to the old and the white working class but it's not as simple as that. There was a big British Asian vote for Brexit in some areas which doesn't tie into that narrative and highlights a diversity within the leave vote that gets overlooked and is therefore not understood.
Aye, the 'we' is ambiguous- I was meaning Brits in general.
A friend of Indian descent was genuinely appalled at how narrow the remain vote was in his home town of Leicester.
My wife is not white and she's African, so not sure Steve from Harlow will approve.
 
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So judging by David Davis's comments today it seems the UK are going to try and square the circle we discussed last week by pretending that they never made any of the promises they did last week. That's going to go well.
 
Davis says the agreement is non-binding. So was the referendum.

Why does he need to state the obvious, are people asking him about it? Without a comprehensive free trade deal, the agreement can't exist within WTO rules.
 
Why does he need to state the obvious, are people asking him about it? Without a comprehensive free trade deal, the agreement can't exist within WTO rules.
I think they're still trying to ride two horses with one ass. Stave off Farage, Gove and Johnson, keep "the people" on board and make the right noises to the EU.
 
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Gove and Davis are doing a great job of inspiring confidence into business, investors and the City, they will be deciding what to do very soon. Do they trust the UK government, the EU certainly doesn't.

There are three choices as there always has been:
1. Hard Brexit, no deal, hard border, WTO rules and the consequences of that
2. Soft Brexit, customs union and some form of deal of one of the models e.g. Norway
3. Call the whole thing off

They are just continuing with same lies as they have done for the past two years.
 
Gove and Davis are doing a great job of inspiring confidence into business, investors and the City, they will be deciding what to do very soon. Do they trust the UK government, the EU certainly doesn't.

There are three choices as there always has been:
1. Hard Brexit, no deal, hard border, WTO rules and the consequences of that
2. Soft Brexit, customs union and some form of deal of one of the models e.g. Norway
3. Call the whole thing off

They are just continuing with same lies as they have done for the past two years.

I agree it's a fudge and think with former soviet states refusing to accept asylum seekers to the point of being fined means both sides were happy to get small wins with some concessions. This way it keeps the markets calm with the promise of more heated debates post February.

Of course one of the other 27 nations could throw a spanner into the works by not agreeing to this.

Re your point two I believe the model we are seeking is not Norway more like Canada.
 
I agree it's a fudge and think with former soviet states refusing to accept asylum seekers to the point of being fined means both sides were happy to get small wins with some concessions. This way it keeps the markets calm with the promise of more heated debates post February.

Of course one of the other 27 nations could throw a spanner into the works by not agreeing to this.

Re your point two I believe the model we are seeking is not Norway more like Canada.

If it's Canada though then we're back into the Irish border being an issue. They really don't have many options available, and even fewer that resolve the border problem.
 
I agree it's a fudge and think with former soviet states refusing to accept asylum seekers to the point of being fined means both sides were happy to get small wins with some concessions. This way it keeps the markets calm with the promise of more heated debates post February.

Of course one of the other 27 nations could throw a spanner into the works by not agreeing to this.

Re your point two I believe the model we are seeking is not Norway more like Canada.

But it can't keep markets calm for too long, the institutions I mentioned can't wait forever, they have got to know what to do and they will make decisions.
There is no choice, there never has been, other than either it's customs union and open NI border or closed and WTO.
It's not a question of the people being happy or not and whether Brexit is right or wrong but to continue to pretend that you can have an open NI border and be able to conduct your own deals is pure lies.
 
Aye, the 'we' is ambiguous- I was meaning Brits in general.
A friend of Indian descent was genuinely appalled at how narrow the remain vote was in his home town of Leicester.
My wife is not white and she's African, so not sure Steve from Harlow will approve.

Exactly, when I refer to British people I mean all British people, not just white Christians as some people think.
There are racists and xenophobes in all countries and all religions and all ethnic backgrounds.

How many brown skinned Polish or Bulgarian people are there in the UK then?

I would love someone to tell me which language I can speak in and then I would really be unpleasant.
 
Gove and Davis are doing a great job of inspiring confidence into business, investors and the City, they will be deciding what to do very soon. Do they trust the UK government, the EU certainly doesn't.

There are three choices as there always has been:
1. Hard Brexit, no deal, hard border, WTO rules and the consequences of that
2. Soft Brexit, customs union and some form of deal of one of the models e.g. Norway
3. Call the whole thing off

They are just continuing with same lies as they have done for the past two years.

The problem is that the Brexiteers promised they could get the benefits of soft Brexit, which beating the jingoistic drum of Nationalism - so no bloody foreigners, and certainly no European courts and regulations.. but you can't have the free market/customs without the oversight and freedom of movement.

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Exactly, when I refer to British people I mean all British people, not just white Christians as some people think.
There are racists and xenophobes in all countries and all religions and all ethnic backgrounds.

How many brown skinned Polish or Bulgarian people are there in the UK then?

I would love someone to tell me which language I can speak in and then I would really be unpleasant.
You're obviously right, what 'we' means shouldn't be ambiguous, but different people certainly have their own interpretation. Davis was showing his knowledge and understanding of the Brexit process once again, calling for the 'Canada plus, plus, plus' deal to be signed upon leaving, when negotiations will be just starting when we leave. I guess we go WTO in the interim at least by default.
 
So David Davis thinks that publicly stating he might renage on any deal is good preparation for entering into protracted trade negotiations with multiple countries....

What a muppet!

Will he be telling the EU that the "cheque is in the post"?
 
So David Davis thinks that publicly stating he might renage on any deal is good preparation for entering into protracted trade negotiations with multiple countries....

What a muppet!

Will he be telling the EU that the "cheque is in the post"?

Amazing how publishing any kind of information about what we actually want from the negotiations or anything about potential impact is seen as 'damaging our negotiating position', but acting like some kind of rogue nation doesn't..

When will Davis realise that we need the deal more than they do- so swallow your pride, get on with getting whatever little you can from it and hope the knuckle draggers are too distracted by Eastenders or X-factor to notice that anythings changed.

/talkingthecountrydown
 
So David Davis thinks that publicly stating he might renage on any deal is good preparation for entering into protracted trade negotiations with multiple countries....

What a muppet!

Will he be telling the EU that the "cheque is in the post"?

We don't have a deal, we have agreed to a huge pay off fee providing we get a favourable trade deal. There's no point in paying the EU a huge pay off for a poor trade deal. If there's not a favourable trade deal we don't pay the divorce pay off, it's simple negotiation. The pay off divorce fee is simply a dangling carrott during negotations, it's no obligation to the UK otherwise.
 
We don't have a deal, we have agreed to a huge pay off fee providing we get a favourable trade deal. There's no point in paying the EU a huge pay off for a poor trade deal. If there's not a favourable trade deal we don't pay the divorce pay off, it's simple negotiation. The pay off divorce fee is simply a dangling carrott during negotations, it's no obligation to the UK otherwise.

I am pretty sure that the EU made sure that they tied the UK on these obligations. Till now the EU had been winning one battle after another, there's nothing to suggest that the UK can outwit the EU on this detail.
 
I am pretty sure that the EU made sure that they tied the UK on these obligations. Till now the EU had been winning one battle after another, there's nothing to suggest that the UK can outwit the EU on this detail.

It's an international trade deal, who are they going to appeal to if the UK doesn't honour the deal, the European Court of Human Rights? Davis is correct in that the EU can't strike a divorce deal and then think they can offer a worthless trade deal with any chance of having the UK honouring the divorce payments in any settlement.
 
You're obviously right, what 'we' means shouldn't be ambiguous, but different people certainly have their own interpretation. Davis was showing his knowledge and understanding of the Brexit process once again, calling for the 'Canada plus, plus, plus' deal to be signed upon leaving, when negotiations will be just starting when we leave. I guess we go WTO in the interim at least by default.

I've just managed to watch the whole Marr interview. Either Davis doesn't understand one thing about what is happening or he is lying about every detail. I thought Johnson was incompetent, this surpasses even him.

You wouldn't buy a second hand car from this lot, never mind do a trade deal. How the hell does he get away with this.
 
It's an international trade deal, who are they going to appeal to if the UK doesn't honour the deal, the European Court of Human Rights? Davis is correct in that the EU can't strike a divorce deal and then think they can offer a worthless trade deal with any chance of having the UK honouring the divorce payments in any settlement.

It's not. The trade deal isn't being negotiated yet.

We're currently talking about current financial obligations to the EU for past commitments which we jointly agreed to. Once we agree on that, there are a million questions to answer before the EU will then discuss trade.

If we have agreed regulatory alignment then getting access to the single market and customs union will be more straightforward, though it will mean oversight from EU courts
and open migration, plus additional financial contributions to the EU.
 
I've just managed to watch the whole Marr interview. Either Davis doesn't understand one thing about what is happening or he is lying about every detail. I thought Johnson was incompetent, this surpasses even him.

You wouldn't buy a second hand car from this lot, never mind do a trade deal. How the hell does he get away with this.
Yep, I've no idea if he is super-lazy, as the persistent rumour suggests, or a moron. Maybe a combo of the two. I'm just writing up his interview for our news alert in the morning. I normally always try to write everything dead straight, but I think this may be somewhat barbed- will rile some of our readers and get a reaction though.

As an investment mag, our readers are predominantly Tory-voting late 40 to early 50-something white wealthier individuals running money.

However, he insisted the agreement so far is ‘non-binding’, much like the EU referendum, in an irony lost on him.
 
Yep, I've no idea if he is super-lazy, as the persistent rumour suggests, or a moron. Maybe a combo of the two. I'm just writing up his interview for our news alert in the morning. I normally always try to write everything dead straight, but I think this may be somewhat barbed- will rile some of our readers and get a reaction though.

As an investment mag, our readers are predominantly Tory-voting late 40 to early 50-something white wealthier individuals running money.

Don't envy your job, does he realise that being idiotic or a downright liar might wash with the public but it won't wash with businesses, banks and investors nor with the EU. I still can't believe I watched what I did.
 
Don't envy your job, does he realise that being idiotic or a downright liar might wash with the public but it won't wash with businesses, banks and investors nor with the EU. I still can't believe I watched what I did.
I can't figure out if he's lying or just inept. I'm also not quite sure which is more worrying.
 
It's an international trade deal, who are they going to appeal to if the UK doesn't honour the deal, the European Court of Human Rights? Davis is correct in that the EU can't strike a divorce deal and then think they can offer a worthless trade deal with any chance of having the UK honouring the divorce payments in any settlement.

Since time immemorial most decent political leaders in the world has governed through something called reputation and legal claim. The medieval world called it casus belli. Before the agreement the money the UK owed the EU was a grey area. I suspect that the EU has learnt from its mistake of trusting the UK and made such commitment in writing. If the UK now bails out than the EU is free to use tactics that the Brexiters call vindictive without hindering its own reputation in the process. That may mean, that the UK will find it hard to fly its own planes over Europe, goods will get stuck at Dover for hours if not days, UK company will be submerged in ridiculous expenses and beurocracy just to sell their services in Europe

There's a reason why the likes of Davies, Johnson and co had toned down. The UK is in a no win situation here. It can either pay its bills or the EU will recoup the money thanks to the massive exodus of companies fleeing a pariah country who can't honour its dues.
 
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This noble continent, comprising on the whole the fairest and the most cultivated regions of the earth; enjoying a temperate and equable climate, is the home of all the great parent races of the western world. It is the fountain of Christian faith and Christian ethics. It is the origin of most of the culture, arts, philosophy and science both of ancient and modem times.

If Europe were once united in the sharing of its common inheritance, there would be no limit to the happiness, to the prosperity and glory which its three or four hundred million people would enjoy. Yet it is from Europe that have sprung that series of frightful nationalistic quarrels, originated by the Teutonic nations, which we have seen even in this twentieth century and in our own lifetime, wreck the peace and mar the prospects of all mankind.

And what is the plight to which Europe has been reduced?

Some of the smaller States have indeed made a good recovery, but over wide areas a vast quivering mass of tormented, hungry, care-worn and bewildered human beings gape at the ruins of their cities and homes, and scan the dark horizons for the approach of some new peril, tyranny or terror.

Among the victors there is a babel of jarring voices; among the vanquished the sullen silence of despair.

That is all that Europeans, grouped in so many ancient States and nations, that is all that the Germanic Powers have got by tearing each other to pieces and spreading havoc far and wide.

Indeed, but for the fact that the great Republic across the Atlantic Ocean has at length realised that the ruin or enslavement of Europe would involve their own fate as well, and has stretched out hands of succour and guidance, the Dark Ages would have returned in all their cruelty and squalor.

They may still return.

Yet all the while there is a remedy which, if it were generally and spontaneously adopted, would as if by a miracle transform the whole scene, and would in a few years make all Europe, or the greater part of it, as free and as happy as Switzerland is today.

What is this sovereign remedy?

It is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom.

We must build a kind of United States of Europe.
 
So David Davis thinks that publicly stating he might renage on any deal is good preparation for entering into protracted trade negotiations with multiple countries....

What a muppet!

Will he be telling the EU that the "cheque is in the post"?
To be fair, not paying this £Xbn settlement is our only card in the negotiations. Of course the Govt is going to threaten to use it. If its legal or not i have no idea..
 
This noble continent, comprising on the whole the fairest and the most cultivated regions of the earth; enjoying a temperate and equable climate, is the home of all the great parent races of the western world. It is the fountain of Christian faith and Christian ethics. It is the origin of most of the culture, arts, philosophy and science both of ancient and modem times.

If Europe were once united in the sharing of its common inheritance, there would be no limit to the happiness, to the prosperity and glory which its three or four hundred million people would enjoy. Yet it is from Europe that have sprung that series of frightful nationalistic quarrels, originated by the Teutonic nations, which we have seen even in this twentieth century and in our own lifetime, wreck the peace and mar the prospects of all mankind.

And what is the plight to which Europe has been reduced?

Some of the smaller States have indeed made a good recovery, but over wide areas a vast quivering mass of tormented, hungry, care-worn and bewildered human beings gape at the ruins of their cities and homes, and scan the dark horizons for the approach of some new peril, tyranny or terror.

Among the victors there is a babel of jarring voices; among the vanquished the sullen silence of despair.

That is all that Europeans, grouped in so many ancient States and nations, that is all that the Germanic Powers have got by tearing each other to pieces and spreading havoc far and wide.

Indeed, but for the fact that the great Republic across the Atlantic Ocean has at length realised that the ruin or enslavement of Europe would involve their own fate as well, and has stretched out hands of succour and guidance, the Dark Ages would have returned in all their cruelty and squalor.

They may still return.

Yet all the while there is a remedy which, if it were generally and spontaneously adopted, would as if by a miracle transform the whole scene, and would in a few years make all Europe, or the greater part of it, as free and as happy as Switzerland is today.

What is this sovereign remedy?

It is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom.

We must build a kind of United States of Europe.
If that is what he wants it means bailing out the Greek government.
 
To be fair, not paying this £Xbn settlement is our only card in the negotiations. Of course the Govt is going to threaten to use it. If its legal or not i have no idea..

If we want to be an economic pariah with no credit rating and a business reputation like Greece, then sure we could not pay our bills.
 
David Davis has clashed with the Irish government after claiming that the Brexit divorce agreement between Britain and the EU was a “statement of intent” rather than something legally enforceable.

The Brexit secretary’s comments came after it was reported that Downing Street advisers had told cabinet ministers who campaigned to leave the EU that promises around full regulatory alignment were “meaningless”.

Theresa May also appeared to suggest there was still some flexibility in the deal reached at the end of last week, writing to all Tory MPs – in a letter seen by the Guardian – to set out the details of the agreement but promising that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.

In a statement issued after Davis had made his remarks to the BBC, the Irish government warned: “Both Ireland and the EU will be holding the UK to the phase one agreement.”

I can't decide whether they're lying to the Eurosceptics or the EU. If its the EU then we're utterly, utterly fecked.
 
If we want to be an economic pariah with no credit rating and a business reputation like Greece, then sure we could not pay our bills.
As i have said, ive no idea of the legality or otherwise. The credit rating angle is interesting - it would certainly be messy!
 
As i have said, ive no idea of the legality or otherwise. The credit rating angle is interesting - it would certainly be messy!

While the commitments have a legal existence, as far as I can remember there is no legal recourse for the EU. They can't force anyone to pay and that's true for all countries, in that scenario the UK can just pretend that they don't have the money. The problem now is that it damages your reputation at every level and it's a big problem for businesses, international organizations and other countries.
 
I dont think there is any doubt the UK will pay an exit bill, which of course isnt really an exit bill at all but a settling up. The question is the amount. If the trade talks dont go well and the whole thing breaks down in acrimony I can see the UK refusing to accept the EU's calculations of what we owein which case it might insist on an independent arbiter calculating the cost of the UK's liabilities.