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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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balaks said:
From a practical standpoint they absolutely cannot do it - the border would be impossible to maintain in a 'hard' way - there essentially is no border between NI and ROI as anybody who has been here will know so to try and set-up checkpoints, etc. would be virtually impossible to do - and no I do not believe there is a technical solution to it. If they ripped up the Good Friday Agreement it would be political suicide and would cause civil unrest - not only that it would be illegal as I've already said.

Believe me - a hard border is an impossiblity even if that is what the UK government wanted to do (which I do not think they do). They will fudge it and continue with some sort of customs union.
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What are you arguing about? They can violate it, the only question is whether they are willing to pay the financial and political price, that's the doubtful part.
 
JPRouve said:
What are you arguing about? They can violate it, the only question is whether they are willing to pay the financial and political price, that's the doubtful part.
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Did you even read what I said? They can't for a variety of reasons I have outlined.

It's like saying Trump can nuke the entire world - yes he could but in reality he can't/won't.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The GFA was done in the context of both the UK and Ireland being part of the EU.
Can the UK legally actually do a Brexit?

Whether morally or legally countries could object to the UK becoming a member of the WTO for a start.
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Which is why I said that it was a bad agreement from a legal standpoint. You can't have an agreement that relies on a status quo that has nothing to do with the actual agreement, at least not without agreeing on an alternative. Now like several Irish posters pointed out, the very mention of an alternative would have made the agreement impossible.
 
balaks said:
Did you even read what I said? They can't for a variety of reasons I have outlined.

It's like saying Trump can nuke the entire world - yes he could but in reality he can't/won't.
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I know exactly why it's unlikely but being unlikely is different from being impossible. Won't isn't equal to can't.
 
JPRouve said:
Which is why I said that it was a bad agreement from a legal standpoint. You can't have an agreement that relies on a status quo that has nothing to do with the actual agreement, at least not without agreeing on an alternative. Now like several Irish posters pointed out, the very mention of an alternative would have made the agreement impossible.
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Whether it was a good or bad agreement is utterly irrelevant. The fact is the agreement is in place and as such the UK is bound by it despite what you may believe.
 
balaks said:
You can't debate with anybody using that kind of logic.
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There is nothing to debate, it's a fact. The GFA is literally and legally built around the EU legal framework when the UK triggered article 50 they were already in breach of the GFA.
 
JPRouve said:
There is nothing to debate, it's a fact. The GFA is literally and legally built around the EU legal framework when the UK triggered article 50 they were already in breach of the GFA.
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The GFA is not legally built around the EU legal framework. It is an agreement between UK and ROI. The terms do not relate to being in Europe they relate to parity between NI and ROI which leaving the customs union will break. The UK has not yet left the EU and until they do so they have a legal requirement to create the same trading conditions within NI as there is in ROI once the UK leaves the EU. Which is why as I've already said they will have to either give special status to NI that enables the current customs union to remain there or they will have to create another 'customs union' but call it something different.
 
balaks said:
The GFA is not legally built around the EU legal framework. It is an agreement between UK and ROI. The terms do not relate to being in Europe they relate to parity between NI and ROI which leaving the customs union will break. The UK has not yet left the EU and until they do so they have a legal requirement to create the same trading conditions within NI as there is in ROI once the UK leaves the EU. Which is why as I've already said they will have to either give special status to NI that enables the current customs union to remain there or they will have to create another 'customs union' but call it something different.
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In the GFA, it is literally stated that both countries wish to develop a unique relationship as partners in the EU. The absence of borders is based on the fact that as partners in the EU they share the same custom and trade areas which is the condition sine qua non for the absence of controlled borders and tariffs, if you don't want to be in breach of WTO rules who are also international agreements. So yes, the GFA is based on the fact that both countries shared the same legal framework aka the EU.

Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union;
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This isn't random, the GFA is based on the legal reality of 1998, that's how they managed to have no borders without having to deal with WTO within the agreement.
 
JPRouve said:
In the GFA, it is literally stated that both countries wish to develop a unique relationship as partners in the EU. The absence of borders is based on the fact that as partners in the EU they share the same custom and trade areas which is the condition sine qua non for the absence of controlled borders and tariffs, if you don't want to be in breach of WTO rules who are also international agreements. So yes, the GFA is based on the fact that both countries shared the same legal framework aka the EU.
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Northern Ireland can have a unique relationship as partners in the EU by matching the trade and custom requirements of the EU which is in my view exactly what will happen. The UK leaving the EU does not necessarily mean the GFA is broken - a hard border will though - essentially NI will remain in the EU in all but name. I honestly can't see how any other option currently being looked at would work.
 
balaks said:
Northern Ireland can have a unique relationship as partners in the EU by matching the trade and custom requirements of the EU which is in my view exactly what will happen. The UK leaving the EU does not necessarily mean the GFA is broken - a hard border will though - essentially NI will remain in the EU in all but name. I honestly can't see how any other option currently being looked at would work.
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I'm not sure if I follow you, "in the EU" has a legal meaning it means that Northern Ireland are by law members of the EU, matching requirements has zero value and bounds no one. NI and ROI needs to be in the same trade and custom area, from a legal standpoint, that's how you have no borders and no custom checks.

And by the way the ECHR is also a legal basis in the GFA, so when UK politicians entertain the idea of leaving it and potentially not respecting it, they go against the GFA.
 
How would Brits feel if NI was removed from the UK in order for the Belfast Agreement to be honoured?

I suppose if NI is no longer part of the UK thrn there is no need for a Belfast Agreement...
 
JPRouve said:
I'm not sure if I follow you, "in the EU" has a legal meaning it means that Northern Ireland are by law members of the EU, matching requirements has zero value and bounds no one. NI and ROI needs to be in the same trade and custom area, from a legal standpoint, that's how you have no borders and no custom checks.

And by the way the ECHR is also a legal basis in the GFA, so when UK politicians entertain the idea of leaving it and potentially not respecting it, they go against the GFA.
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It is an agreement between the UK and Ireland - if Ireland agreed to the terms I have highlighted (which they already have said they would) then it would be fine - as long as it is within the 'spirit' of the GFA. The reality is that there is a way through Brexit that maintains the GFA and that is for NI to remain in EU in all but name. That is all that matters.
 
Green_Red said:
How would Brits feel if NI was removed from the UK in order for the Belfast Agreement to be honoured?

I suppose if NI is no longer part of the UK thrn there is no need for a Belfast Agreement...
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I'd imagine most 'brits' couldn't give a fiddler's f*ck what happens to NI. The Brexiteers didn't give us one thought.
 
balaks said:
I think it was more that most people were prepared to break up the UK - NI mainly and Scotland possibly - as long as Brexit goes through.
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Wow, surprised by that tbh. Scotland would be a shock given they lost the last independence referendum. I know theres the argument for Brexkt wasnt an issue then but typically relationships are through thick and thin...
 
Silva said:
As in, Leave the EU even if Scotland and NI leave the UK.
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Oh ok I get it. English poll. Thats a big portion. Surprised that even still Brits are sticking to their Brexit opinions. My gf is English and her family think UK will be fine. Theres the "stiff upper lip" mentality amongst some I guess.
 
Green_Red said:
Wow, surprised by that tbh. Scotland would be a shock given they lost the last independence referendum. I know theres the argument for Brexkt wasnt an issue then but typically relationships are through thick and thin...
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Brexit is an English thing mainly (and Welsh) - generally Scotland and NI voted against it so already we are all pissed off with it and are getting increasingly so as the calls for a harder Brexit get louder and we are pulled into something we don't want and something (in NI) that could potentially destabilise the region again or economically destroy us. This heightens tensions and may lead to more people asking themselves 'do I really want to be part of a UK that does this?' so it may indirectly lead to more support for a united Ireland or an independant Scotland.
 
balaks said:
It is an agreement between the UK and Ireland - if Ireland agreed to the terms I have highlighted (which they already have said they would) then it would be fine - as long as it is within the 'spirit' of the GFA. The reality is that there is a way through Brexit that maintains the GFA and that is for NI to remain in EU in all but name. That is all that matters.
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The problem here is with WTO and it also concerns the EU because without FTA and CU the absence of borders and potentially tariffs means that both the EU and the UK are in breach of the rules.
 
balaks said:
Northern Ireland can have a unique relationship as partners in the EU by matching the trade and custom requirements of the EU which is in my view exactly what will happen. The UK leaving the EU does not necessarily mean the GFA is broken - a hard border will though - essentially NI will remain in the EU in all but name. I honestly can't see how any other option currently being looked at would work.
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NI will prosper if this happens, unfortunately the DUP dont want that.
 
Green_Red said:
Is that view of leaving the UK a view held primarily by nationalists or are Unionists starting to think in those terms too? Do you know?
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I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
 
balaks said:
I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
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What about elected MPs? Are there any making noises for that?

I guess it doesnt have to be United Ireland, it can just be a pro European NI.
 
balaks said:
Don't even start me on the DUP.... this could actually be a fantastic opportunity for NI's economy if we played it right.
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Yeah it would be great for you. Right now you're in a really tough situation, over reliant on the UK to the point that leaving the UK would be disastrous for you, and given the UK's current trajectory, not exactly in a great position if you stay either.

Essentially this would give you the best of both worlds, access to both the UK and EU market from multi-nationals perspective, it'd be a dream for Belfast.

oh, and you know, no hard border, which would be nice.
 
balaks said:
I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
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No disrespect but there isn't a hope in hell ROI would agree to a united Ireland any time in the next 10-15 years. NI would need to seriously improve it's economy and become far less reliant on the UK for it to even be considered. Plus, I think if NI reached that stage they probably wouldn't want to anyway.
 
Massive Spanner said:
No disrespect but there isn't a hope in hell ROI would agree to a united Ireland any time in the next 10-15 years. NI would need to seriously improve it's economy and become far less reliant on the UK for it to even be considered. Plus, I think if NI reached that stage they probably wouldn't want to anyway.
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I think that depends on what would be proposed if it was happening. I think if Northern Ireland was to enter a United Ireland, then i imagine there would be a change over period where Britain would still be financially supporting the area for a set number of years. Also possible the EU could help fund the area until the economy grows, i think they might have done something similar with east germany when germany reunited.
 
Green_Red said:
How would Brits feel if NI was removed from the UK in order for the Belfast Agreement to be honoured?

I suppose if NI is no longer part of the UK thrn there is no need for a Belfast Agreement...
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Arlene Foster is still alive.
I do agree with @balaks that people here don't really give a crap about NI, u less it starts affecting our peace.
 
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