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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Maybe, maybe not, but whatever happens, the same is going to be true whether there is an open border with NI or not, which is what my charming Irish friend doesn't seem to understand.

If there is no open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit I wouldn't be so sure you'll only need a passport to get to Paris.
 
It would be like the equivalent of me caring whether there was a hard border between northern Cyprus and southern Cyprus. It makes no difference to me, or anyone else!

It matters to the WTO, which you'll be trading under if you leave the SM. Maybe it shouldn't but it does. You could make a deal with Ireland specifically but the EU negotiates as a bloc, so any exceptions you make for Ireland (like free movement or trade across the border) will have to be given to all 27 member states. Similar issue with the WTO, you can't make exceptions for one country and not apply them to all trading partners. So you either need to make a deal with all 27 EU members or just drop any and all borders to every country in the world. Or else its a hard border.
 
Well while there is unemployment there should be no need to recruit from outside, how is that not glaringly obvious ?

Context is everything. Have you ever heard of 0% unemployment?

Currently it seems the 4.2% unemployment rate in the UK is the lowest since 1975. Record lowest is 3% in 1971.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate

How come there is no 0% unemployment?

Because the economy is dynamic, there is always some level of frictional and structural unemployment, which is known as the natural rate of unemployment. However, there is a major difference between frictional and structural unemployment. Those who are frictionally unemployed have useful, transferable skills. Those who are structurally unemployed do not.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/pub...hy-scarce-resources-are-sometimes-unemployed/

On the most basic level you can imagine a guy who’s physically able and willing to work, but he is also a complete moron with zero education or skills, and literally no company would take him because of his (past) behaviour/demanour.

How about a family where the man works and the woman is also available and willing to work, but only in the city she lives because her kids go to school there and she doesn’t want to move to another part of the country.

Those kind of situations account for that last 1-3% of unemployment, and scenarios like that are always going to be there.

But based on what you say in the quoted, it seems you would rather employ the native born former drug addict and convict with facial tattoos in your restaurant than a foreign well trained guy with loads of experience?

No sane business owner In the real world would want to do that though...
 
It would be like the equivalent of me caring whether there was a hard border between northern Cyprus and southern Cyprus. It makes no difference to me, or anyone else!

Hi - I'm a real person and it makes an enormous difference to me. Thanks for totally ignoring me and everybody I care about. Your famed empathy you harp on about doesn't appear to stretch to Ireland.
 
Guided by these principles, the Government is determined to build a new relationship that works for both the UK and the EU. One which sees the UK leave the Single Market and the Customs Union to seize new opportunities and forge a new role in the world, while protecting jobs, supporting growth and maintaining security cooperation.

...

The future relationship also needs to be informed by both the UK and the EU taking a responsible approach to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, in a way that respects the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK and the autonomy of the EU.
Face..fecking..palm.

Two years, 94 pages later and their solution to the border is still.. "errrm... we'll work on it together, guys?"
 
It matters to the WTO, which you'll be trading under if you leave the SM. Maybe it shouldn't but it does. You could make a deal with Ireland specifically but the EU negotiates as a bloc, so any exceptions you make for Ireland (like free movement or trade across the border) will have to be given to all 27 member states. Similar issue with the WTO, you can't make exceptions for one country and not apply them to all trading partners. So you either need to make a deal with all 27 EU members or just drop any and all borders to every country in the world. Or else its a hard border.

And what, hypothetically, would be the ramifications if we kept an open border and told the EU to go feck itself? War? :D
 
Face..fecking..palm.

Two years, 94 pages later and their solution to the border is still.. "errrm... we'll work on it together, guys?"

To be fair, squaring a circle takes a while.

The purpose of the White Paper is to (just about) hold the Tory party together rather than a serious basis for a future relationship with Europe.
 
And what, hypothetically, would be the ramifications if we kept an open border and told the EU to go feck itself? War? :D

France could just start putting one guy managing the customs at Calais and sit and watch the line of lorries start backing up across Kent. We’d cave in a week at most.
 
A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.
 
A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.

She might be able to sell it to the country but she couldn’t sell it to the members of her own party.
 
France could just start putting one guy managing the customs at Calais and sit and watch the line of lorries start backing up across Kent. We’d cave in a week at most.

Good point. Damn shame we let France get hold of nukes really, otherwise we could have nipped that in the bud before tea time.
 
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A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.
They tried that in their ref campain, only 48% bought it.

If her party were onside she could just cancel it, i mean when has a tory party ever cared what joe soap thinks?
 
Context is everything. Have you ever heard of 0% unemployment?

Currently it seems the 4.2% unemployment rate in the UK is the lowest since 1975. Record lowest is 3% in 1971.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate

How come there is no 0% unemployment?

Because the economy is dynamic, there is always some level of frictional and structural unemployment, which is known as the natural rate of unemployment. However, there is a major difference between frictional and structural unemployment. Those who are frictionally unemployed have useful, transferable skills. Those who are structurally unemployed do not.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/pub...hy-scarce-resources-are-sometimes-unemployed/

On the most basic level you can imagine a guy who’s physically able and willing to work, but he is also a complete moron with zero education or skills, and literally no company would take him because of his (past) behaviour/demanour.

How about a family where the man works and the woman is also available and willing to work, but only in the city she lives because her kids go to school there and she doesn’t want to move to another part of the country.

Those kind of situations account for that last 1-3% of unemployment, and scenarios like that are always going to be there.

But based on what you say in the quoted, it seems you would rather employ the native born former drug addict and convict with facial tattoos in your restaurant than a foreign well trained guy with loads of experience?

No sane business owner In the real world would want to do that though...
A mate of mine was in a team of 3 mechanics in Haarlem, they were all let go and replaced with eastern europeans. He now has to commute to Breda every single day of the week.

So when people tell me this shit dies not gi on they deluded.

People can also be retrained, its something the gov't should provide. If Jamie Oliver can get a bunch of half wits to run kitchens then anyone should be able to. But no, instead a slave economy has been created and the race is underway.
 
A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.
Perhaps agree a "transition period" where everything goes horribly wrong and the population changes their mind.
 
And what, hypothetically, would be the ramifications if we kept an open border and told the EU to go feck itself? War? :D

You'd be telling the WTO to feck off. You'd have no international trade whatsoever and be international pariah's. Ireland isn't stupid enough to follow you into oblivion, we'd just facepalm and wait for you to come to your senses and start dealing with reality as opposed to your naive, childish little fantasy.
 
Might not be the most amazing one but it’s certainly the oldest one and the chance of uniform corporation tax in EU is precisely 0%. It’s a pipe dream. Bear in mind we don’t even have uniform corporate taxes within the same country, think Isle of Man.

With no centralised federal budget and no large subsidies to the poorer regions, nations that already struggle to attract corporations would be fecked even harder as most of those corporations will set up in the countries with the best infrastructure to support them. I.e the more industrialised North. The South and the East would be fecked. They would rightfully never sign up to it.

Those subsidies exist in any country including the UK. It’s well known that money generated in London gets funnelled out to finance other parts of the country and subsidies are paid to Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the poorer regions of England. Which is fair of course.

However in the EU this would be politically very tricky. Public would detest it (“why are we funding the lazy X”) and right wing politicians would attack it for their personal gain. Something that happens when there’s no homogeneity and nationalism still exists within the Union. Also people would then point to the unevenness of income tax and the existence of personal tax havens as opposed to corporate tax havens. Will that become uniform too?

Let me put it this way. The state things are at now, it’d be far far FAR more likely that EU breaks up than such extreme steps to integration are taken. There's no appetite for tighter integration at the moment.

Money is being funnelled to poorer regions by the EU already
 
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.

Then your having border checks between NI and the mainland, a 'no no' for the DUP
 
I'm not glossing at all over the that, you're probably referring at some other unspecified poster, I've been highlighting that if anything. But also, absolute twaddle back at you about Britain being able to control immigration fully. They don't. Linking me some article about illegal immigrants in the Calais camp does nothing.

UK has the ability to control non-EU immigration, always had. But not EU immigration. Admittedly, based on how non-EU immigration was handled there was never any genuine attempt by politicians to reduce immigration or net migration numbers. Those bothered by the levels of immigration (not me) should take the Government to task about that. But let's not pretend that there is any genuine control over EU immigration.

If I were to accurately describe the situation, I'd say Britain has partial control over its immigration. A large percentage of the public wants full control and a massive reduction of net migration. It might stupid, or irrational or whatever but it's a very strong current at the moment.

Nonsense, trying to get visas for non eu migrants was a fecking nightmare , and have you not heard of Windrush? This government, and especially May, have been right bastards
 
A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.

I'd probably start with a judicial enquiry into Vote Leave, Cambridge Analytica and Russian interference. It would likely end with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove facing some hefty legal issues so she wouldn't have the guts to do it.

An optimistic 1% of me thinks that May is dragging this out as long as possible for the Mueller investigation to entrap Farage and suspend the whole farce as a result. But I think the Tories' link to Russian donations will mean that any such justice would be buried.
 
A mate of mine was in a team of 3 mechanics in Haarlem, they were all let go and replaced with eastern europeans. He now has to commute to Breda every single day of the week.

So when people tell me this shit dies not gi on they deluded.

People can also be retrained, its something the gov't should provide. If Jamie Oliver can get a bunch of half wits to run kitchens then anyone should be able to. But no, instead a slave economy has been created and the race is underway.

Wait, you're saying he already found another job? And now he has to go on a daily commute? Ain't that some modern day slavery.

Seriously though, since you're in IT you must be well aware of the technological advancement all across the world. 1.4 billion people in China and 1.3 billion people in India are making huge steps. If you genuinely think freedom of workers throughout Europe isn't essential for the development of Europe in the next 30 years to stay competitive, then fair enough.

But don't forget that instead of completely dismissing a united Europe with free movement of labour and letting bitterness fuel your political views to a point where someone would rather sabotage their own country than bring it forward, you can also focus on the possibilities. Believe it or not, with some focus and good political discussions on regulation you can actually find tailor made solutions for a lot of problems.

What do you think about this?

Corporations will no longer be able to undercut local workers by exploiting migrants. Looking beyond Brexit, this law will make a big difference regardless of the option chosen for our future relationship with the EU

Thus far, exploitative employers have been able to take advantage of out of date legislation regarding so-called “posted workers” – when an employee from one EU member state is sent by their employer to carry out a service in another temporarily. Despite obligations for employers to pay workers the minimum wage of the country in which they are working, loopholes in the legislation and enforcement have allowed undercutting, including the deduction from wages for travel and accommodation

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-brexit-uk-labour-laws-migrant-workers-a8375836.html
 
A question for everyone, if you were Theresa May, and you decided "this shite is not worth it, let's just stay in the EU, much less hassle", how would you go about selling it to the UK? Must be something they've thought/thinking about. Would need to be pretty creative.

I would call a pause for a "national debate", revoke Article 50 and pledge that as PM the government would spend the next 3-4 years getting it "absolutely right" and then at the next general election present as part of our manifesto whether we as the Conservative party will endorse the deal that has been negotiated or whether at that point we feel it's right to think again, in which case a vote for us (Tories) will be to reject to deal and continue with membership as on current (July 2018) terms.

If I was May I'd feel emboldened to do that as she's damned as she does and damned if she doesn't now anyway. There is no party to lose. No rebellion avoidable. So why the feck not?
 
Wait, you're saying he already found another job? And now he has to go on a daily commute? Ain't that some modern day slavery.

Seriously though, since you're in IT you must be well aware of the technological advancement all across the world. 1.4 billion people in China and 1.3 billion people in India are making huge steps. If you genuinely think freedom of workers throughout Europe isn't essential for the development of Europe in the next 30 years to stay competitive, then fair enough.

But don't forget that instead of completely dismissing a united Europe with free movement of labour and letting bitterness fuel your political views to a point where someone would rather sabotage their own country than bring it forward, you can also focus on the possibilities. Believe it or not, with some focus and good political discussions on regulation you can actually find tailor made solutions for a lot of problems.

What do you think about this?



https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-brexit-uk-labour-laws-migrant-workers-a8375836.html
You ignored the first part of my post.

Breda is a 2 hour drive each way.

I work with foreigners from all over the world, they had to get paperwork done but whats wrong with that. Its not like they were entitled to go anywhere. Why should we not have visa systems? I had a police check every 3 months when i got to nl, not exactly a laborious experience. feck knows why people on here get so upset about it. When a company wants you they will do most of the grunt work for you.
 
You ignored the first part of my post.

Breda is a 2 hour drive each way.

I work with foreigners from all over the world, they had to get paperwork done but whats wrong with that. Its not like they were entitled to go anywhere. Why should we not have visa systems? I had a police check every 3 months when i got to nl, not exactly a laborious experience. feck knows why people on here get so upset about it. When a company wants you they will do most of the grunt work for you.

Its called progress, things getting better and people don't have to waste time with visas. Or are you wedded to the past? Do you think we should return to outside toilets as that's all we had in the past?
 
Its called progress, things getting better and people don't have to waste time with visas. Or are you wedded to the past? Do you think we should return to outside toilets as that's all we had in the past?

You have to admit that it would reduce the Febreze budget.
 
Its called progress, things getting better and people don't have to waste time with visas. Or are you wedded to the past? Do you think we should return to outside toilets as that's all we had in the past?
Yes, yes i do. I can never find an outside bog and pissing on a bush gets you a fine. Applying for a visa is not an issue, its just paperwork usually done by hiring company.
 
You might not get tired of saying it and I won't get tired of calling it one of the most laughable arguments ever in the history of argumentation.


Lets laugh all together then, I doubt many people from this forum has much more personal experience immigrating than me, including deportation. But hey. Laughter is always good specially when you don't have idea about what you are laughing about.

The stupid things that local people complains about and blames to immigrants when is that they are or unprepared or lazy is staggering. As well the sense of entitlement that they deserve a better job or a higher salary just because they are born by sheer luck in a random country. Yes, locals don't deserve a job if they lose against an immigrant. Basically because that immigrant has worse conditions for starters
 
Wait, you're saying he already found another job? And now he has to go on a daily commute? Ain't that some modern day slavery.

Seriously though, since you're in IT you must be well aware of the technological advancement all across the world. 1.4 billion people in China and 1.3 billion people in India are making huge steps. If you genuinely think freedom of workers throughout Europe isn't essential for the development of Europe in the next 30 years to stay competitive, then fair enough.

But don't forget that instead of completely dismissing a united Europe with free movement of labour and letting bitterness fuel your political views to a point where someone would rather sabotage their own country than bring it forward, you can also focus on the possibilities. Believe it or not, with some focus and good political discussions on regulation you can actually find tailor made solutions for a lot of problems.

What do you think about this?



https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-brexit-uk-labour-laws-migrant-workers-a8375836.html
Corporations arent a problem, small companies are. And who takes notice of eu rules? Not Germany. EU rules, for the few not the many.
 
You don't need ANY ID to cross a EU country to another. None. Absolutely none.

As Spanish I can go anywhere without showing any ID. IF brits needs to show the passport, is because you are picking a plane. Is safety reason, nothing else. Also, from spain to UK, to UK to Spain, with the spanish ID is enough, not passport. But as I repeat, is because you are picking a plane. If a brit is in Belfast (UK) and want to cross to Irleand, they don't need ID because the "border crossing" is by land. If a brit wants to cross by land France to Germany, they don't need an ID at all but they need it if they fly

Also, freedom of movement is not only the right to go to a country without an ID, is the right to stay if you have some requisites to stay (and work, and vacations, etc...), without freedom of movement, this requisites will be much more restrictives
 
You don't need ANY ID to cross a EU country to another. None. Absolutely none.[/B]

As Spanish I can go anywhere without showing any ID. IF brits needs to show the passport, is because you are picking a plane. Is safety reason, nothing else. Also, from spain to UK, to UK to Spain, with the spanish ID is enough, not passport. But as I repeat, is because you are picking a plane. If a brit is in Belfast (UK) and want to cross to Irleand, they don't need ID because the "border crossing" is by land. If a brit wants to cross by land France to Germany, they don't need an ID at all but they need it if they fly

Also, freedom of movement is not only the right to go to a country without an ID, is the right to stay if you have some requisites to stay (and work, and vacations, etc...), without freedom of movement, this requisites will be much more restrictives
You need either an EU approved Id or a passport to go from UK -> France... So that's not true

We've gone from one incorrect extreme to another
 
Lets laugh all together then, I doubt many people from this forum has much more personal experience immigrating than me, including deportation. But hey. Laughter is always good specially when you don't have idea about what you are laughing about.

The stupid things that local people complains about and blames to immigrants when is that they are or unprepared or lazy is staggering. As well the sense of entitlement that they deserve a better job or a higher salary just because they are born by sheer luck in a random country. Yes, locals don't deserve a job if they lose against an immigrant. Basically because that immigrant has worse conditions for starters

Buddy the world ain't a fair place. Anybody born in privilege will never willingly surrender it and anyone born outside of it will strive to get there and then fight to protect it. The same way I hold absolutely nothing against the people who migrate to better their lives, I also hold nothing against the people who want to protect the privilege they are born in. It's the way of life.

There is solid evidence that migration (at least in the UK's case) is good for the economy, but equally there's evidence that it creates pressure on the incomes of the lowest skilled people. The "lazy or unprepared" as you decided to call them, as if that's a fair description on anyone caught at the bottom. And those people have every right to request the protection from their Government because that Government is there to work for the betterment of the lives of its people. Not all the people of the world. Its mission is not world fairness.

We don't live in some sort of meritocratic utopia up in the clouds where the Angels sing and the Cherubs play. Humans neither act rationally, nor care for fairness a lot of the times. If that makes you angry, be prepared to be angry for the rest of your life.
 
Yes, yes i do. I can never find an outside bog and pissing on a bush gets you a fine. Applying for a visa is not an issue, its just paperwork usually done by hiring company.

What about people who don't have a company to pay for them? And doesn't applying for Visas cost money? It's ultimately payed by the customer.

I knew a girl at work, not super bright but sparky personality. Went on holiday to Greece one week, came home and was offered a job at the hotel on the Wednesday and was working there by Saturday. Do you think that would be as easy if she had to apply for a visa for the holiday and again for employment?
 
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You need either an EU approved Id or a passport to go from UK -> France... So that's not true

We've gone from one incorrect extreme to another
Yes, you need a passport to leave and enter Britain. After that, you can drive all across Europe with no checks whatsoever - we do it a lot.

The only real attention you get is at the Swiss border, Switzerland being one of the countries where you need to buy an annual vignette to drive on their motorways. Once they see you've got the sticker on your windscreen, that's it.
 
What about people who don't have a company to pay for them? And doesn't applying for Visas cost money? It's ultimately payed by the customer.

I knew a girl at work, not super bright but sparky personality. Went on holiday to Greece one week, came home and was offered a job at the hotel on the Wednesday and was working there by Saturday. Do you think that would be as easy if she had to apply for a visa for the holiday and again for employment?
Was she paying tax? Were the hotel even?
 
Yes, you need a passport to leave and enter Britain. After that, you can drive all across Europe with no checks whatsoever - we do it a lot.

The only real attention you get is at the Swiss border, Switzerland being one of the countries where you need to buy an annual vignette to drive on their motorways. Once they see you've got the sticker on your windscreen, that's it.

So do extremists