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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
vidic blood & sand said:
The UK should tell Ireland, what is YOUR plan for a no deal brexit for the UK?
You wanna get tough with the EU?
You want to sell beef to us etc?
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Ireland doesn't have a solution for combining no deal Brexit and the GFA agreement because they thought it was a patently stupid idea that couldn't be done. This is one of the reasons the Irish government advised so heavily and repeatedly against Brexit.

Having unilaterally decided to push for that bad idea, the UK can't then turn to Ireland and expect them to come up with a solution. Ireland's solution was for the UK to either stay in the EU or stay so close to it as to make no difference.

Imagine you're on a lifeboat. You say "I think drilling a big hole in the bottom of the boat will help us move better" Your fellow passenger says "That's a terrible idea, there's no real benefit and we'll almost certainly drown, please don't do it". You say, "Don't worry, no matter what we definitely won't drown." Despite their protests, you drill the hole. You then immediately turn to them and say "well, what's your plan to save us from drowning then?"
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Duh, because a hard brexit massively affects them and their economy.



We don't see it as our mess. It's a joint mess with the EU because of all the problems the membership to the EU has caused us.
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Yeah but our stance is that we would prefer to stick with the EU where we have prospered and do much more trade with than the UK who will likely enter a massive recession if they go hard. The UK is the one who decided to make this choice, not us, not the EU. It's a no brainer. There's no point in us trying to play both sides, we are with the EU and thus will do what's in the best interest of us as an EU member.

And it is 100% your mess. Blaming the EU for your own mistakes is why you're in it.
 
As a side note, China opened its market to French beef this year, I'm sure that Ireland can do the same if it's not already the case.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Afraid not, he just doesn't want the job yet, he knows it's all turning to disaster and he doesn't want to be the one in charge when it does, he's only in it for the money and here's his lack of knowledge and still wanting to keep the benefits of the EU: "If you are in a negotiation for a free trade agreement, you can maintain your existing standards for ten years under WTO rules. So we have ten years from the point at which we leave the European Union to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU which would mean we can carry on with our zero tariffs."
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He has never said that he wanted the PM job while he is a backbencher. I think a backbencher has only gone straight into number 10 once. I could be wrong. Too say that JRMs motives are purely selfish regarding brexit, is ridiculous. He's a principled Catholic, and has come under fire for his religious views. He's also back May and her government.


What the wasted 2 years or the No deal - No deal is at about 99.9% at this moment
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Let's remember that "no deal" hurts both parties. The EU gets no money, and the trade arrangement will hurt them as much or more than us. We can trade with the EU under WTO rules, but both sides won't want this. The EU's biggest advantage is that Westminster is mostly for remain, and that's where the EU is wanting brexit to defeated. They want parliament to undermine brexit, and do their work for them.

But EU countries are getting ready for no deal - NL customs offices, Calais port buying land for lorry parks and customs buildings, Ireland planning to recruit customs personnel and so on. The Uk have done nothing.
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David Davies briefed government about a no deal brexit just before he resigned. There are pans in place on our side.

But if those relocating their factories, for example, move to within the EU, they not only produce for the domestic and EU market, they also produce for sales worldwide so if all the car manufacturers decided to move their plants to the EU all the trade deals with the USA, China , Australia would not only not happen, but the existing sales would also disappear. Cars are the UK's biggest manufacturing export worldwide.
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Do you think they'll really move?
Do you underestimate the size of the british economy?

But we do understand the complexity of the situation which is why a real Brexit cannot happen without catastrophic results.
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No, that's just your own fears telling you this, because you live abroad. The opportunities are exciting.
 
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vidic blood & sand said:
You're not thinking this through.

You're implying that the EU was expecting to kneecap the UK for leaving. How do you feel about an organisation that is basically trying to say that there is no way for the UK to leave the EU?
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You're not thinking this through. The UK had a choice to remain or leave , by leaving they are breaking the GFA. How are the EU kneecapping the UK. If the UK leaves the EU then by WTO rules the UK has to put up a hard border and its border is the Northern Irish border. That's what has to happen not what the EU says.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You're not thinking this through. The UK had a choice to remain or leave , by leaving they are breaking the GFA. How are the EU kneecapping the UK. If the UK leaves the EU then by WTO rules the UK has to put up a hard border and its border is the Northern Irish border. That's what has to happen not what the EU says.
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No. The EU has a choice to put up a hard border.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Let's remember that "no deal" hurts both parties. The EU gets no money, and the trade arrangement will hurt them as much or more than us. .
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Could you explain how a trade agreement would hurt the EU more? I'm just puzzled because I fail to see how it could hurt a bloc of 440m people with a GDP of 13bn more than it could hurt a country with 65m people and a GDP of 2bn. Can you explain?
 
vidic blood & sand said:
He has never said that he wanted the PM job while he is a backbencher. I think a backbencher has only gone straight into number 10 once. I could be wrong. Too say that JRMs motives are purely selfish regarding brexit, is ridiculous. He's a principled Catholic, and has come under fire for his religious views. He's also back May and her government.

Principled enough to vote against abortion and gay marriage but not quite enough to promote removing all foreign aid. Nice. He's also a hedge fund manager who stands to profit from the collapse of the pound he is trying to engineer.


Let's remember that "no deal" hurts both parties. The EU gets no money, and the trade arrangement will hurt them as much or more than us. We can trade with the EU under WTO rules, but both sides won't want this. The EU's biggest advantage is that Westminster is mostly for remain, and that's where the EU is wanting brexit to defeated. They want parliament to undermine brexit, and do their work for them.

Have you even seen WTO tariffs?

David Davies briefed government about a no deal brexit just before he resigned. There are pans in place on our side.

The only pan David Davis has in place is a bed pan. He doesn't have a clue about how the EU works.

Do you think they'll really move?
Do you underestimate the size of the british economy?

It's a bit smaller than the EU economy I've heard.

No, that's just your own fears telling you this, because you live abroad. The opportunities are exciting.

I hear the Americans are rubbing their hands in glee at the opportunities.
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Massive Spanner said:
Could you explain how a trade agreement would hurt the EU more? I'm just puzzled because I fail to see how it could hurt a bloc of 440m people with a GDP of 13bn more than it could hurt a country with 65m people and a GDP of 2bn. Can you explain?
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We import about £100 Billion more in goods than we sell to the EU. Therefore when we leave the EU, we become a bigger customer of the EU than America.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
He has never said that he wanted the PM job while he is a backbencher. I think a backbencher has only gone straight into number 10 once. I could be wrong. Too say that JRMs motives are purely selfish regarding brexit, is ridiculous. He's a principled Catholic, and has come under fire for his religious views. He's also back May and her government.
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What do his religious views have to do with it. If he was a mere backbencher why does he have so much influence and why is May so afraid of him.You haven't noticed his business interests?


What the wasted 2 years or the No deal - No deal is at about 99.9% at this moment

Let's remember that "no deal" hurts both parties. The EU gets no money, and the trade arrangement will hurt them as much or more than us. We can trade with the EU under WTO rules, but both sides won't want this. The EU's biggest advantage is that Westminster is mostly for remain, and that's where the EU is wanting brexit to defeated. They want parliament to undermine brexit, and do their work for them.
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No deal hurts both parties but hurts the UK approximately 7 or 8 times harder. There are 27 countries who will continue to trade with each other as before. The UK can trade with no-one as they did before. All agreements they have are as EU members.

Do you believe the EU wants the UK to stay?

David Davies briefed government about a no deal brexit just before he resigned. There are pans in place on our side.
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Am sure everyone will be keen to find out what these are but you've only got 8 months left.

Do you think they'll really move?
Do you underestimate the size of the british economy?
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Of course they will, if they cannot operate correctly they will move, not totally in one go but just phase it out over several years. Businesses have to operate without the restrictions UK will be imposing.
I think you're underestimating the size of the EU economy which is massive compared to the UK and all the deals the EU have with other countries, of which the UK will have none for many years and will undoubtedly be inferior.

No, that's just your own fears telling you this, because you live abroad. The opportunities are exciting.
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There's no fear just an analytical view. I'd be interested to know what exciting opportunities there will be that didn't already exist.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
We import about £100 Billion more in goods than we sell to the EU. Therefore when we leave the EU, we become a bigger customer of the EU than America.
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It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?
 
No answer? Ok let's look from the other side. How will the EU check regulatory compliance from a divergent country with no border? After all, we don't want to comply with their rules. Yet somehow expect to export to them without checks.
 
Massive Spanner said:
It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?
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It's around 65bn and it won't really change because people will still purchase these goods for the most part.
 
JPRouve said:
It's around 65bn and it won't really change because people will still purchase these goods for the most part.
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Obviously that money won't just disappear but it will become more expensive for both sides to purchase the goods now, and if it's hurting these companies they'll do what's best to stop that. Certain car companies already are and they haven't even left yet.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You do not understand. The UK and the EU have to have a hard border under WTO rules, there is no choice.
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No it depends on what agreements are in place regarding tariffs. Let's also not forget that Ireland have a say in this. Does the EU have Ireland's interests at heart?
 
Massive Spanner said:
It's about 80bn not 100bn.

And when you consider it's 65m people losing 240bn Vs 440m losing 320bn then which seems more significant?

And then when you consider the fact that so many of the main exporting companies from the UK to the EU are international companies who will want to retain tariff free exports to the EU, what happens then?

And about the US, are you saying they'll tailor their imports to meet that of an economy that has only a fraction of their imports from the EU, over the EU?
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Obviously the idea is for the UK to trade with other nations, and the EU to find alternative customers.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
No it depends on what agreements are in place regarding tariffs. Let's also not forget that Ireland have a say in this. Does the EU have Ireland's interests at heart?
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We're talking no deal scenario with no customs union and no single market thus WTO rules which means a hard border.

Tariffs are not going to be the UK's biggest problem, the consumers pay the tariffs. It's the disruption that will be the UK's problem.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
You're not thinking this through.

You're implying that the EU was expecting to kneecap the UK for leaving. How do you feel about an organisation that is basically trying to say that there is no way for the UK to leave the EU?
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They EU have four fundamental freedoms, to which we agreed. Either we follow those freedoms, or don't and face economic and political consequences because surprisingly those freedoms were beneficial for us. Why should the EU bend over to help a nation who seeks to disadvantage them?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
We're talking no deal scenario with no customs union and no single market thus WTO rules which means a hard border.

Tariffs are not going to be the UK's biggest problem, the consumers pay the tariffs. It's the disruption that will be the UK's problem.
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No. WTO rules do not allow special arrangements. Therefore it would be the EU's decision to force the UK into having to set tariffs, and thus affecting the nature of the border in Ireland. It would be the UK's desire to trade favourably with the EU, why wouldn't it be the EU's desire to do the same?
 
vidic blood & sand said:
We import about £100 Billion more in goods than we sell to the EU. Therefore when we leave the EU, we become a bigger customer of the EU than America.
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We export about £2,500 worth of goods per person to the EU. This equates to them importing around £370 per person.

We import about £3900 worth of goods per person from the EU. This equates to them exporting around £575 per person.

When taken as a whole it isn't difficult to see which economy has the most exposure.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
No. WTO rules do not allow special arrangements. Therefore it would be the EU's decision to force the UK into having to set tariffs, and thus affecting the nature of the border in Ireland. It would be the UK's desire to trade favourably with the EU, why wouldn't it be the EU's desire to do the same?
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Outside a customs union the Uk has to follow WTO rules, ie have a hard border and set the appropriate tariff. The UK are forcing this by leaving the customs union not the other way round.
 
JPRouve said:
And I only use a complete year, so 2017 and in that case it's 67.
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I see the error - you're talking about goods and services. I thought Vidic, Spanner and therefore you were talking about goods alone.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I see the error - you're talking about goods and services. I thought Vidic, Spanner and therefore you were talking about goods alone.
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I wasn't talking about goods alone but the entire balance, maybe I was the only one though.
 
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