Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Whatever ones will keep the UK happy? Maybe let them have their stricter immigration rules that they wanted in 2015? I'm not sure, that's for the EU and UK to figure out. I don't think the EU will budge (nor should they, really) so it's all pointless anyway.

What is the point for the other 26 countries, what concessions the UK offers? I'm not against the idea but in that case I would ask for zero rebate and no access to the service market.
 
Whatever ones will keep the UK happy? Maybe let them have their stricter immigration rules that they wanted in 2015? I'm not sure, that's for the EU and UK to figure out. I don't think the EU will budge (nor should they, really) so it's all pointless anyway.

They couldn't even bother using the tools the EU already gives to try and control EU immigration.

The reality is quite simple. The UK had been incompetent on immigration and it had hidden such incompetence by shifting all the blame on the EU.
 
The point is to avoid a fecking hard border with Ireland.

the single market is the EU. A breach in its integrity would mean the end of the EU. The EU is doing its very best to sign a good deal for Ireland but the other side seem not caring at all. If hard borders are up then unfortunately Ireland will have to choose between staying in the EU with hard borders with the UK or leaving the EU altogether and sign a trade deal with the UK on a disadvantaged position
 
The point is to avoid a fecking hard border with Ireland.
There's enough concern across the bloc about immigration for the EU to look at again it in all honesty.

Maybe some reform like net migration quotas for each country instead of open door.

That could be a justifiable reason to call a 2nd referendum - considering the 1st was pretty much solely about immigration.
 
There's enough concern across the bloc about immigration for the EU to look at again it in all honesty.

Maybe some reform like net migration quotas for each country instead of open door.

That could be a justifiable reason to call a 2nd referendum - considering the 1st was pretty much solely about immigration.

There is barely any concern about EU immigration across the bloc, because there is barely any immigration.
 
There's enough concern across the bloc about immigration for the EU to look at again it in all honesty.

Maybe some reform like net migration quotas for each country instead of open door.

That could be a justifiable reason to call a 2nd referendum - considering the 1st was pretty much solely about immigration.

It's only the UK that objects to immigration of other Europeans , they are on their own. The EU won't make concessions on that.
 
The point is to avoid a fecking hard border with Ireland.

Let's be blunt, a hard border will have zero consequences on the other 26 countries, they didn't create the issue and have no problem with controlled borders(Belgium and France have partially reinstated some in the last years). So the only reason they are actually negotiating on that subject is because they are partners with Ireland who doesn't want nor need a controlled border. Due to the "The EU" narrative people seem to really forget that the UK and Ireland need to sell these negotiations to the rest of the EU member states because for them it's purely diplomatic. So when you suggest that the EU should offer anything that the UK would accept you are basically shitting on 26 sovereign countries.
 
If Brexit ends with a no deal and there is a hard border in N.I, what is the likeliness that IRA reactivates and starts violence again?
 
If Brexit ends with a no deal and there is a hard border in N.I, what is the likeliness that IRA reactivates and starts violence again?

I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.
 
If Brexit ends with a no deal and there is a hard border in N.I, what is the likeliness that IRA reactivates and starts violence again?

The actual provos? Not likely.

Brexit is one of the greatest gifts to republicans politically.
 
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.
That's interesting and somewhat hopeful at least. What would be the major items smuggled, and in which directions?
 
That's interesting and somewhat hopeful at least. What would be the major items smuggled, and in which directions?

Today it seems to be mainly cigarettes. Presumably after a no deal Brexit and implementation of a hard border you'll have everything from booze to humans.
 
Today it seems to be mainly cigarettes. Presumably after a no deal Brexit and implementation of a hard border you'll have everything from booze to humans.
Yeah thanks, I was wondering which way most of it would go really. Prices seem higher in Eire when I've been, but I don't know if that's taxes or what, pardon my ignorance. People would be the UK's worry of course, that's where all this began.

Thanks to the others too for their hilarious replies. :)
 
My original post made all this clear. Because of Ireland. The EU need to accept that Ireland and the border will have a very negative effect on a country that will still be in the EU should a deal not be reached. I don't disagree with what you're saying, the UK deserve to crash and burn for their stupidity but my country does not.

Look, it won't happen, unless the UK cave there will be a hard border, the EU won't budge on it, clearly. I just hope they're prepared for the consequences and don't leave us out on our arse.

Sea border...feck the DUP
 
Yeah thanks, I was wondering which way most of it would go really. Prices seem higher in Eire when I've been, but I don't know if that's taxes or what, pardon my ignorance. People would be the UK's worry of course, that's where all this began.

Thanks to the others too for their hilarious replies. :)

Prices higher but so are wages
 
Maybe there should be a referendum in NI on the matter... Do the people of NI want to be included in the EU customs area or do they want hard Brexit. Doesn't have to be an United Ireland deal. The fear for May is that if that happened, Scotland would probably want the same.
If NI and Scotland get to vote, London should get one too!
 
Which is fair. While as a Scot I understand that the NI situation is more perilous due to the genuine threat of violence, I'd also expect our thoughts to be taken into account if individual UK countries are getting a say when it comes to this. Especially when campaigning during the 2014 referendum continually stated again and again that our only guarantee of EU membership was to vote against independence.

It doesn't take anything from your point but while reading the GFA, I kept asking myself whether the right to self determination stipulated in the agreement could be used in favour of NI and ROI in the particular case of Brexit. While the term "United Ireland" was probably supposed to mean as a recognized nation, you could argue that "united" could also simply mean "not separated" and in that case the people of NI and ROI are the only one allowed to determine their fate, not Westminster.

Scotland right to self determination is outside of an agreement with Westminster, it makes it a little bit more difficult to put forward.
 
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.

It's the dissidents that are the issue though - they will be targeting some poor bugger at the border check for sure. They still have a lot of support up around Derry and in other spots.
 
I think it's unlikely that we'd see an immediate re-emergence of militancy. However there will be an immediate escalation in cross-border smuggling operations which tend to be linked to former militant networks, and so could feed into any growth in violence that does occur. Right now though there's no stomach for a return to violence, it would take a series of minor mutual provocations to potentially escalate into something bigger - this is actually what happened in the late 60s, but the political, demographic, economic and global context is a lot different now.

I beg to differ
 
It's the dissidents that are the issue though - they will be targeting some poor bugger at the border check for sure. They still have a lot of support up around Derry and in other spots.

You would also assume that the ability of security services on both sides of the border to co-operate would also be impacted by a no deal. I think things like the EAW are all caught up in these negotiations?

I would have thought that most of the damage of a no deal would likely be in the long term though. Pretty much every factor that might lead to a permanent increase in violence (be it political, economic, structural or cultural) would start heading in the wrong direction.
 
Can anybody answer a general question about the EU for me? I know from doing some digging recently that past labour politicians (1970's mostly) feared that a United Europe trading behemoth would be bad for workers rights. Has that come to be the case? Does the EU favour employers and boardrooms over worker protections, or is it the opposite?
 
Can anybody answer a general question about the EU for me? I know from doing some digging recently that past labour politicians (1970's mostly) feared that a United Europe trading behemoth would be bad for workers rights. Has that come to be the case? Does the EU favour employers and boardrooms over worker protections, or is it the opposite?

Workers have more rights but it's mainly down to national governments.
 
And that's why I'm baffled, the only alternative has been offered by the EU and was rejected, it was also a solution that respected the fact that NI voted to remain. As long as NI choose to stay with the UK and the UK rejects any option that would divide the Union, there is no solution that the EU can offer. The other solution only concerns the Republic of Ireland, they can decide to join the UK in a new block.
Have you read the guardian today? Apparently 'the worlds greatest trade deal maker' says it can be done and is done every day around the world. If so can we drop the feckin 'it cant be done' stance
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...to-drop-chequers-in-order-to-win-brexit-prize