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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
AV ref had a supermajority for No, 75 single market ref got a supermajority for yes. Indyref was a ten point win for No and that's not ended the discussion. EUref was a 3.78 point win for leave and has caused a pretty much unrelenting mentalness for two and a half years, so I think this one has a decent argument for re-running compared to the others.

US democracy is a basket case in a lot of ways, but I think requiring constitutional changes to face a bigger hurdle than pure majority consent is looking quite well justified.

I dunno, it's a nice idea in principle but I'd argue it can end up being overly conservative in how it can prohibit necessary changes to society that lack just enough support to pass through. If, say, 60% of the country want something to happen but can't reach a two-thirds threshold then you're in a situation where the majority of the country clearly want something to be implemented, and will continue pushing for it to happen until it does. The issue doesn't really go away (if it's important) but just finds itself being continually contested instead. Imagine if, for example, a two thirds threshold had been there in 2016 and Leave had won with 58%. Farage and co would've been outraged and wouldn't have stopped going on about it.

For me the problem with the EU ref was that the question itself was so ill-defined as to what Brexit would mean, allowing people to project their own perceptions onto the vote. The question should have specifically been either to Leave but remain in the SM/CU, or leave everything. The problem is the Leave side would've never opted for that because they know it would've failed: the latter would've been too minimal to campaign strongly on, while the latter would've been rejected as being too radical.
 
Really? Leaving aside the UK's longstanding euroscepticism, UKIP actually came third, then second, then first in European elections between 2004 and 2014. The UK then willfully voted for a party & leader that was promising a referendum. That's hardly no voter movement. If people vote for things then those things might happen.
Yeah, really.

There sure was Euroscepticism, but it was never a majority sentiment, a ground swell. Leave winning was, to most, unexpected. If that was really voter movement for the referendum, then there is surely even more voter movement for a second referendum?
 
Agree with this but also think Brexit is a special case and it was only a marginal majority. Given how consequential Brexit will be, it seems crazy that the electorate cannot be given a second chance to confirm if this is what they really want. Is this how democracy is intended to work? You get one chance and one chance only? If you should regret your choice, tough.
I personally agree... I just think some Calling for a second referendum don't realise how divisive it would be... How hard it would be to structure... how unusual it would be not to enact the first referendum and mostly just how close it would probably be... Then what round 3?
 
Movement has been scarce but support for remaining within the EU has generally been higher than support for leaving for most of this year. That's fairly significant considering we're currently in the process of leaving, with that same process being highly criticised. It's also fairly notable considering neither of the main two parties are advocating remaining within the EU currently: the government continue to advocate a well-managed exit (even if they're incapable of it) and the opposition are at best tacitly wary of leaving, and generally supportive of doing so.
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But both are polling at around 40%. If people actually care about staying in the EU or changing both parties stances than there's this awful little liberal party that people can vote for. But no one is.
I do think there's something strange in those on the left defending Labour's stance on this based on polling when it was perfectly convenient for that to be ignored when Corbyn first came to power. Or when the country was keen on austerity. Obviously Labour need to be smart in their actions and there are risks in going against the vote itself, but the consistent argument from them under Corbyn has been to try and change the outlook of the British public on key issues instead of moving to the centre to accommodate such views. Yet on Brexit, an issue which will inherently impact everything a Corbyn government wants to do, they're fine to use the polling argument.

Your right but there's nothing particular left wing about the EU at all, the left isn't going to get be hide something like those awful god EU marches. So there's simply isn't the energy for changing people minds on EU membership as there was with the fight against austerity(Your pretty much asking the left to actively campaign to join a club that will completely feck you over once your in government.)


Ft

Well, I don't recall there being much of a voter movement for Brexit before Brexit and yet we had the referendum.
UKIP won about 1 million votes in the European election and more important the tories won a election with manifesto that included a referendum on EU membership.
 
Yeah, really.

There sure was Euroscepticism, but it was never a majority sentiment, a ground swell. Leave winning was, to most, unexpected. If that was really voter movement for the referendum, then there is surely even more voter movement for a second referendum?

I think people repeatedly voting for parties that either advocate Brexit or promise the opportunity for Brexit is a fair sign of voter movement, a sign validated by Leave then actually winning the popular vote when it came around. I mean people could have voted for something else at any point but they didn't.

As for a Leave win being unexpected, it shouldn't have been that unexpected given that polling prior to the vote showed that there was a very real possibility of that outcome happening. If people were deeply surprised it was because they misread the situation.

There may well be a similar sentiment for reversing the vote. Unfortunately no major party seems keen to give a re-vote the platform that the Tories gave to Brexit.
 
I dunno, it's a nice idea in principle but I'd argue it can end up being overly conservative in how it can prohibit necessary changes to society that lack just enough support to pass through. If, say, 60% of the country want something to happen but can't reach a two-thirds threshold then you're in a situation where the majority of the country clearly want something to be implemented, and will continue pushing for it to happen until it does. The issue doesn't really go away (if it's important) but just finds itself being continually contested instead. Imagine if, for example, a two thirds threshold had been there in 2016 and Leave had won with 58%. Farage and co would've been outraged and wouldn't have stopped going on about it.

For me the problem with the EU ref was that the question itself was so ill-defined as to what Brexit would mean, allowing people to project their own perceptions onto the vote. The question should have specifically been either to Leave but remain in the SM/CU, or leave everything. The problem is the Leave side would've never opted for that because they know it would've failed: the latter would've been too minimal to campaign strongly on, while the latter would've been rejected as being too radical.
I agree with your worries tbf. I just think something so deliberately polarising as a referendum, on something so fundamental to a country as how it functions legally, politically and economically, is always going to lead to the kind of ructions and ridiculousness that we have now. We're 6 months from leaving and it gets worse by the week.

I realise you're likely thinking of Scotland and that it would make independence that much harder, and it's an interesting case given the SNP are literally a party founded upon the idea and had won parliamentary elections multiple times before the vote. It's tough to strike a balance, but it just seems to me that the current way of doing it is insane :lol: It would also doom any chances of electoral reform here, but let's be honest, that's not happening anyway.
 
But both are polling at around 40%. If people actually care about staying in the EU or changing both parties stances than there's this awful little liberal party that people can vote for. But no one is.


Your right but there's nothing particular left wing about the EU at all, the left isn't going to get be hide something like those awful god EU marches. So there's simply isn't the energy for changing people minds on EU membership as there was with the fight against austerity(Your pretty much asking the left to actively campaign to join a club that will completely feck you over once your in government.)



UKIP won about 1 million votes in the European election and more important the tories won a election with manifesto that included a referendum on EU membership.
UKIP winning a million votes isn't a voter movement. I don't think Tories won in 2015 because they had the referendum in the manifesto.
 
Really? Leaving aside the UK's longstanding euroscepticism, UKIP actually came third, then second, then first in European elections between 2004 and 2014. The UK then willfully voted for a party & leader that was promising a referendum. That's hardly no voter movement. If people vote for things then those things might happen.

MEP elections had shockingly low turnout though didn’t they? The eurospectics were mainly the only ones who cared enough to vote, because we did such a shit job of explaining to people what the EU actually does for us.
 
I don't wish to panic anyone, but I just had a horrible thought that those who've been fighting to leave the EU for most of their political lives may actually be morons



According to Brexiters the UK never have had any representation in the EU, it's all run by Bureaucrats, not the time to suddenly realise they did.
 
UKIP winning a million votes isn't a voter movement. I don't think Tories won in 2015 because they had the referendum in the manifesto.
So a anti eu party winning seats and a election wining manifesto that included a eu referendum isn't movement ?
 
Ken’s right. Barely anyone voted in the MEP elections besides those with a vested interest in Europe i.e. UKIP voters.

I have never voted in a European election and don’t recall ever even knowing when a vote happened.
 
So a anti eu party winning seats and a election wining manifesto that included a eu referendum isn't movement ?

It is, but it was fuelled by both Labour and the Tories using the EU as a punching bag for everything, especially blaming it for voters concerns about immigration and both parties failure to take sensible and legal measures which other EU states did.
 
So a anti eu party winning seats and a election wining manifesto that included a eu referendum isn't movement ?
No. Not in my view. If your argument is there was a movement for a Brexit referendum, then there is also a movement for a second referendum, if not more so.
 
I personally agree... I just think some Calling for a second referendum don't realise how divisive it would be... How hard it would be to structure... how unusual it would be not to enact the first referendum and mostly just how close it would probably be... Then what round 3?

Why would it be hard to structure? Two part question, part one ‘Do you want to leave the EU or remain?’ part two ‘If Leave do want to leave with May’s deal or leave with no deal’. Simple.
 
Why would it be hard to structure? Two part question, part one ‘Do you want to leave the EU or remain?’ part two ‘If Leave do want to leave with May’s deal or leave with no deal’. Simple.
Why would it be that and not for example
3 picks... Leave no deal leave with Mays deal or remain

Why in your option do only those that pick to leave get to pick the nature of any deal

Why wouldn't it be a we decided to leave so pick if we leave with Mays deal or no deal and that's the only option

Why not a direct rerun of the previous question

Why not Mays deal or remain

You might think it's simple but I'm sureany would disagree

Av system with multiple options for example

I believe it won't happen anyway but your simple idea instantly throws up the why do only leavers get a say on deal / no deal?

Why not a second option is remain pursue reforms or not?

It's not simple and with the timescales involved I simply don't see it happening

Personally I'd love it to and I'd vote reminder but can't see it

If there was one I wouldn't put it past may to have 3 options
1 leave with no deal
2 leave with Mays deal
3 remain

But you have to put two X.... The option with the most wins .... If you only put one vote it's discounted... (Basically trying to ensure her option wins)
 
McDonnell has u-turned on this. Before the party conference the Labour leadership was very much against a second referendum, and after great pressure from the rank and file to call for one they eventually weaseled a 'we're not ruling one out'. This morning on radio 4 he clearly said 'our preferred choice is a general election, but if not we want a second referendum. Could be different again next week though.

He's been saying that for weeks, in fact that is all he's been saying. It doesn't matter what the question, that's all he says.
 
No that's nonsense. To overturn a democratic vote is very serious. There's nothing wrong in having a second vote, and if remain wins, then the result should be honoured by leavers. However, that doesn't stop people being against EU membership.

I’m not sure I understand - if you say there is nothing wrong with a second vote (and I am not advocating reversing Brexit without such a vote), then why is it so “serious”? The vote was incredibly close first time around (despite May initially acting like it was 80:20) and material new facts have emerged (or at least can no longer be denied), principally the fact that tbe EU is not going to give the UK a fantastic, cake and eat it deal. Therefore, as in every other area of life when circumstances change, the right course is to reassess whether we still want to proceed on that basis, knowing that the alternatives are not a bucaneering Britannia unchained but either chaos or an inferior version of the status quo.
 
Movement has been scarce but support for remaining within the EU has generally been higher than support for leaving for most of this year. That's fairly significant considering we're currently in the process of leaving, with that same process being highly criticised. It's also fairly notable considering neither of the main two parties are advocating remaining within the EU currently: the government continue to advocate a well-managed exit (even if they're incapable of it) and the opposition are at best tacitly wary of leaving, and generally supportive of doing so.

I do think there's something strange in those on the left defending Labour's stance on this based on polling when it was perfectly convenient for that to be ignored when Corbyn first came to power. Or when the country was keen on austerity. Obviously Labour need to be smart in their actions and there are risks in going against the vote itself, but the consistent argument from them under Corbyn has been to try and change the outlook of the British public on key issues instead of moving to the centre to accommodate such views. Yet on Brexit, an issue which will inherently impact everything a Corbyn government wants to do, they're fine to use the polling argument.

Maybe you are right but why would there be movement by Leavers, they already have the decision they were after (whether the deal is what they want is clearly another matter)? I think the country is still very much divided.

I wish the referendum never happened, hearing the word Brexit pretty much everyday for 2 years has become unbearable.
 
Movement has been scarce but support for remaining within the EU has generally been higher than support for leaving for most of this year. That's fairly significant considering we're currently in the process of leaving, with that same process being highly criticised. It's also fairly notable considering neither of the main two parties are advocating remaining within the EU currently: the government continue to advocate a well-managed exit (even if they're incapable of it) and the opposition are at best tacitly wary of leaving, and generally supportive of doing so.

I do think there's something strange in those on the left defending Labour's stance on this based on polling when it was perfectly convenient for that to be ignored when Corbyn first came to power. Or when the country was keen on austerity. Obviously Labour need to be smart in their actions and there are risks in going against the vote itself, but the consistent argument from them under Corbyn has been to try and change the outlook of the British public on key issues instead of moving to the centre to accommodate such views. Yet on Brexit, an issue which will inherently impact everything a Corbyn government wants to do, they're fine to use the polling argument.
Great post. Have found Sweet Square’s recent posts in this thread to be particularly infuriating.
 
Why would it be that and not for example
3 picks... Leave no deal leave with Mays deal or remain

Why in your option do only those that pick to leave get to pick the nature of any deal

Why wouldn't it be a we decided to leave so pick if we leave with Mays deal or no deal and that's the only option

Why not a direct rerun of the previous question

Why not Mays deal or remain

You might think it's simple but I'm sureany would disagree

Av system with multiple options for example

I believe it won't happen anyway but your simple idea instantly throws up the why do only leavers get a say on deal / no deal?

Why not a second option is remain pursue reforms or not?

It's not simple and with the timescales involved I simply don't see it happening

Personally I'd love it to and I'd vote reminder but can't see it

If there was one I wouldn't put it past may to have 3 options
1 leave with no deal
2 leave with Mays deal
3 remain

But you have to put two X.... The option with the most wins .... If you only put one vote it's discounted... (Basically trying to ensure her option wins)

You’re right that the second part should have just been ‘if the vote is leave, would you prefer May’s deal or no deal’. As for all the ‘why nots’ you posed, I’m just interested in the simplest most effective answer. You could quibble about variations until the cows come home, but the one I suggested covers the bases in a way that would be fair to both sides. You certainly can’t have a 3 answer question like the one you suggested because it would be a flagrant attempt to rig the vote for Remain.
 
There's going to what 70-80 (ERG + Boris' posse?) Tory votes against the deal? So they'll need somewhere in the region of 70 votes from opposition parties to pass the vote, maybe less if the LDs keep up their form and forget to vote.
 
Great post. Have found Sweet Square’s recent posts in this thread to be particularly infuriating.

Yep, it's another version of what I'm calling 'Schrödinger's Corbyn' where his incompetence is passed off as a breath of fresh air because he's 'genuine' and 'not a normal politician' when he's scoring own goals like changing his story about why he was laying a wreath, but also where he's a machiavellian, political savvy schemer who isn't interjecting into the Brexit debate because he has a cunning plan.
 
There's going to what 70-80 (ERG + Boris' posse?) Tory votes against the deal? So they'll need somewhere in the region of 70 votes from opposition parties to pass the vote, maybe less if the LDs keep up their form and forget to vote.

Surely they can’t get that many. Labour can’t capitulate that hard without tying themselves to the consequences.
 
You'd think so. The majority of Labour Brexil rebels are full on remainers and would rather a second referendum.

Yeah I can’t think of more than about half a dozen like Field, Mann and Hoey who might go along with it.
 
Yeah I can’t think of more than about half a dozen like Field, Mann and Hoey who might go along with it.
They're no dealers anyway, it's unlikely they'll vote for the deal. The government needs to turn remainer opposition MPs to dealers. The SNP are a no because they want the Scottish parliament to get a say. Lib Dems want a second referendum. And Labour wants another general election. It's really hard to see where the votes come from unless the ERG capitulates after they lose the vote of no confidence against May.
 
They're no dealers anyway, it's unlikely they'll vote for the deal. The government needs to turn remainer opposition MPs to dealers. The SNP are a no because they want the Scottish parliament to get a say. Lib Dems want a second referendum. And Labour wants another general election. It's really hard to see where the votes come from unless the ERG capitulates after they lose the vote of no confidence against May.
My assumption is that a version of May’s deal ultimately passes.

The first vote will obviously fail. After that, either the EU gives May something that she can take home/ makes the deal optically easier to swallow for the Brexiteers, or they refuse to negotiate, and May’s negotiating position in the commons becomes stronger as the countdown to no-deal gets ever closer. The latter seems more likely, though completely terrifying.