Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Well, With that decision I change my opinion on Revoking art 50 on 99.9% to 0.01% . If I am not wrong, after the 29, whichever is the extension, the UK can't revoke art50 (please, someone to correct me). SO yes, now, the default will be No Deal, because, the morons, will feel like they still have 14 days more to do something if they reject May's deal....but sure is not revokation. Now it is May's deal or No deal
 
Well, With that decision I change my opinion on Revoking art 50 on 99.9% to 0.01% . If I am not wrong, after the 29, whichever is the extension, the UK can't revoke art50 (please, someone to correct me). SO yes, now, the default will be No Deal, because, the morons, will feel like they still have 14 days more to do something if they reject May's deal....but sure is not revokation. Now it is May's deal or No deal
We might not have the automatic right to revoke A50, but it would still be possible by agreement. So not 99.9% or 0.01%, but something in between. 99.9% was a bit odd anyway to be honest, but each to their own.
 
We might not have the automatic right to revoke A50, but it would still be possible by agreement. So not 99.9% or 0.01%, but something in between. 99.9% was a bit odd anyway to be honest, but each to their own.

Well, my 99.9% was because brexit is not ready for a No Deal, whatever the MP say. Not by legislation, not in contingency.

Asking the EU to be back is quite different than revoking article 50. If the latest would be swallowing UK MPs pride, would be under the UK control. Begging the EU to be in again (and of course re-trigger article 50 even less unlikely), bretraying the "will of the people" and so, would be something worth to behold. And still, would not be revocation
 
By the way, said extension shouldn't be approved by the UK parliament? the HoC only voted on an extension to the 30th of June
 
Well, With that decision I change my opinion on Revoking art 50 on 99.9% to 0.01% . If I am not wrong, after the 29, whichever is the extension, the UK can't revoke art50 (please, someone to correct me). SO yes, now, the default will be No Deal, because, the morons, will feel like they still have 14 days more to do something if they reject May's deal....but sure is not revokation. Now it is May's deal or No deal

No you're wrong, it can be done until the withdrawal agreement comes into force. So we either have until April 12th or for how long the 'long delay' is agreed to be.
 
No you're wrong, it can be done until the withdrawal agreement comes into force. So we either have until April 12th or for how long the 'long delay' is agreed to be.

So if Theresa May can't get the WA, so there is an extension till the 12th of April, the UK can revoke article 50 even if that right was during 2 years, not during 2 years and 14 days? or those 14 days are just for preparations for No deal?
 
So assuming the deal either gets voted down again or isn't changed so no vote can take place what then happens on 12th April?

We agree to a long extension including taking part in European elections?

Or?
Long Extension with a GE / 2nd ref / Norway+ compromise

Or No Deal

Or Revoke & remain.

That last option still seems the least likely (but most appealing).
 
Long Extension with a GE / 2nd ref / Norway+ compromise

Or No Deal

Or Revoke & remain.

That last option still seems the least likely (but most appealing).

I've come to accept that it's not happening. As shit as it is I'd prefer a Norway+ at this point, although it seems like spiting yourself for zero reason, no deal is just doing it to a worse extent
 
May said about 3/4 times she didn't want to take part in the European elections when she just spoke, and she made is explicitly clear we're definitely still leaving.

That only leaves her deal or no deal. And we all know her deal will be shot down so...
She would get overthrown if she tried to take us down the no-deal route. Lets get MV3 out of the way early and work on Plan B.
 
I've come to accept that it's not happening. As shit as it is I'd prefer a Norway+ at this point, although it seems like spiting yourself for zero reason, no deal is just doing it to a worse extent
Norway + (Brexit in name only) seems like the least worst solution if we cannot remain.
 
Open Extension is the solution! :)

The article 50 will remain invoked, and the UK will definitely leave the EU ... when it is ready.
 
Gut feel... Mv3 will be very hard to win now as the date of the 12th leaves open no deal for the erg and leaves open long extension for remainers

Mv3 I think now fails...

I don't think she will authorize a referendum so my guess is she calls a ge the evening that mv3 fails... Could this be organised in time to have the votes at the same time as EU elections as well?

Edit... I'll also add I think the conservatives win the election... Fptp and they will be the ones pushing for a hard brexit whilst the rest of the votes are split.

Then post election with a decent majority it's perhaps one more try at mv4 or straight to managed no deal... Aka hard brexit... And a leadership election consisting of who says the nastiest things about the eu
 
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Gut feel... Mv3 will be very hard to win now as the date of the 12th leaves open no deal for the erg and leaves open long extension for remainers

Mv3 I think now fails...

I don't think she will authorize a referendum so my guess is she calls a ge the evening that mv3 fails... Could this be organised in time to have the votes at the same time as EU elections as well?

I think long term the EU are now starting to believe that No Deal will work out better for them than the current WA.

We will be in a much weaker position than the EU, struggling to form beneficial deals with meaningful trading partners. They know we won’t be able to hard ball from a position of weakness.
 
So the presenter of Sky News said he got a message from an MP and thinks the following will happen:

Her deal will get beaten next week
Parliament ask for a long extension
She resigns
 
So the presenter of Sky News said he got a message from an MP and thinks the following will happen:

Her deal will get beaten next week
Parliament ask for a long extension
She resigns

In my opinion it would be a huge mistake for the EU if it grants the long extension. Europe needs to move on from Brexit and forcing the UK in after voting out would be madness. Let the UK crush, let them face the consequences of their delusions and if they want to return back to the EU then offer them a fast track way in (on terms offered to new members)
 
So the presenter of Sky News said he got a message from an MP and thinks the following will happen:

Her deal will get beaten next week
Parliament ask for a long extension
She resigns
Well, she has to go - but who'll be the new leader? It's going to be someone far more Brexity with much more cunning and guile, which will probably be disastrous for the outcome of all of this.
 
In my opinion it would be a huge mistake for the EU if it grants the long extension. Europe needs to move on from Brexit and forcing the UK in after voting out would be madness. Let the UK crush, let them face the consequences of their delusions and if they want to return back to the EU then offer them a fast track way in (on terms offered to new members)

They won’t grant it without good reason. Hopefully that good reason is a second referendum with the vote on a tangible deal.
 
In my opinion it would be a huge mistake for the EU if it grants the long extension. Europe needs to move on from Brexit and forcing the UK in after voting out would be madness. Let the UK crush, let them face the consequences of their delusions and if they want to return back to the EU then offer them a fast track way in (on terms offered to new members)
I'm sure they'd have no problem doing that if it wasn't for the small matter of the little island to the left of it.
 
They won’t grant it without good reason. Hopefully that good reason is a second referendum with the vote on a tangible deal.

I still think that from the EU perspective it would be a mistake. This anti European hatred and mania of grandeur are well embedded in the British psyche. They need to test what it means going solo else this problem will pop up again in 5-10 years time. The EU can't afford having Brexiteers blaming the EU as the reason why Brexit never occurred.
 
If this is real, I think either;

a) May scares enough MPs into voting for her deal.
b) It fails, May is forced out of No. 10. And then...? The stat posted today that 70ish% of Tories now prefer a no deal outcome terrifies in all honesty. Could be dreadful at this point.
It is just that they can't torelate uncertainty very well and also scared a delay will mean no Brexit. I cannot believe people are increasingly buying into the idea of no deal being better than a deal of some sort.
 
So if Theresa May can't get the WA, so there is an extension till the 12th of April, the UK can revoke article 50 even if that right was during 2 years, not during 2 years and 14 days? or those 14 days are just for preparations for No deal?

There's no time limit on the ability to revoke, as long as we're still in we can withdraw it yes.
I think you're probably thinking of discussions around the WA transition as it's during that period we'll be left in limbo unable to revoke and slowly heading to our doom.
 
I still think that from the EU perspective it would be a mistake. This anti European hatred and mania of grandeur are well embedded in the British psyche. They need to test what it means going solo else this problem will pop up again in 5-10 years time. The EU can't afford having Brexiteers blaming the EU as the reason why Brexit never occurred.
Ten years after leaving without a deal, Brexiteers will still blame the EU for everything. There's no way around that.
 
If the UK leaves the EU then I doubt they can.
You underestimate their... mental flexibility.

"We're in the deep shit because the EU bullied us, because they were afraid of the proud British nation! They are still undermining us at every turn because they are TERRIFIED OF US!"
 
You underestimate their... mental flexibility.

"We're in the deep shit because the EU bullied us, because they were afraid of the proud British nation! They are still undermining us at every turn because they are TERRIFIED OF US!"

If that's the case then the UK won't be joining the organisation that bullied them and the UK would remain a third country. Which would mean it won't be an EU problem. As Barnier said, the EU needs to stop being idealistic and naive. There are countries who might say one thing and act in another way. The UK in this mindset is a competitor at best and an enemy of the union at worst. It can't be allowed to keep its vote and veto.
 
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It is just that they can't torelate uncertainty very well and also scared a delay will mean no Brexit. I cannot believe people are increasingly buying into the idea of no deal being better than a deal of some sort.
Err, do you remember the 2017 election?
no-deal1.jpg


:nervous:
 
Gut feel... Mv3 will be very hard to win now as the date of the 12th leaves open no deal for the erg and leaves open long extension for remainers

Mv3 I think now fails...

I don't think she will authorize a referendum so my guess is she calls a ge the evening that mv3 fails... Could this be organised in time to have the votes at the same time as EU elections as well?

Edit... I'll also add I think the conservatives win the election... Fptp and they will be the ones pushing for a hard brexit whilst the rest of the votes are split.

Then post election with a decent majority it's perhaps one more try at mv4 or straight to managed no deal... Aka hard brexit... And a leadership election consisting of who says the nastiest things about the eu
Potentially.

Though I think more likely is that she resigns/ is pushed out after MV3 fails. At that point I’ve no idea.

A Tory leadership election where the only way to win over their old, Brexit-y membership base is to promise a no deal exit?
 
Potentially.

Though I think more likely is that she resigns/ is pushed out after MV3 fails. At that point I’ve no idea.

A Tory leadership election where the only way to win over their old, Brexit-y membership base is to promise a no deal exit?

That's my worry. Ideally there's a genuine cross-party effort to sort out the options with indicative votes however i have a feeling nothing will happen until the new leader is appointed and it'll end up being Leadsom and the same shit.
 
The only way May's deal gets voted through is if she does a deal with Corbyn. She could have already done that.

1 Labour remove the whip and her deal gets through
2 She says some more stuff to piss off her own MP's
3 Corbyn Tables VoNC
4 Her MP's abstain and VoNC is upheld
5 GE called.
6 Further Brexit extension
7 May resigns
8 Tory leadership contest
9 GE Election run
10 Winner gets to negotiate future relationship (and run the country)