General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I know Labour have had a recent surge but I think there might be a even bigger climb-down come election night than in 2015.
I just feel the narrative of Jeremy Corbyn appealing to huge swathes of the same people in the same place is the most likely case given doorstep anecdotes.
And it will leave us with the biggest ever political lottery winner May as PM.
I just feel the narrative of Jeremy Corbyn appealing to huge swathes of the same people in the same place is the most likely case given doorstep anecdotes.
And it will leave us with the biggest ever political lottery winner May as PM.
Talking to people in Hull at the weekend i am confident in saying he has no chance.
She was being set up and still fell for it. It was so obvious what was going to happen, and yet... it happened.
Truthfully i am hoping that corbyn wins and starts a reshuffle of the party straight away.
In the interest of depressing everyone, these crude tools you get for seat predictions still give the Tories about a fifty seat lead (but no majority) with those figures.
I don't think anyone's genuinely expecting a Labour victory as such, to be fair...simply not getting a Tory majority would be absolutely massive for all its implications during Brexit etc. Still doubt it'll happen but if there's movement in other polls they'll be extremely worried.
So they've got the same margin with their phone poll as their online one, interesting as there's usually a bit of a gap. ICM had one out today with broadly the same dates that was at +11 still, so the methodology gap remains. This time in three days time we should have an idea who was closest.
Still expect Conservatives to win with a slightly bigger majority.
Too many "shy tories".
I fear a lot of my friends are hopeful.
I think I read on another forum that ICM make the crude assumption that roughly 50% of UKIP vote is going to the Tories which drives the large gap.
When we say high, how high are we talking? There'll almost certainly be an increase but if it was around 40% (I think in 2015) then it'll maybe just bridge 50% this time. So I'd be interested to see what they mean by a high turnout.
I'd say that's a reasonable assumption from them. Surprised it's as low as 50% actually, to be honest.
Low youth turnout has been typical for basically every election in the last 30 years.
Whether or not they'll turn out because there's something different to vote for this time remains to be seen.
Whether or not they'll turn out because there's something different to vote for this time remains to be seen.
It's amazing how the youth of this country shoot themselves in the foot by not voting. You cannot whinge if you refuse to take destiny in your own hands.
It's particularly infuriating for me since I cannot vote but really wanted to in the general elections. I just didn't expect May to u-turn that soon and was late in going for citizenship.
Also, from what I've read about the high youth turnout, I think it usually means in line with other voting groups e.g. c.70%.
It's particularly infuriating for me since I cannot vote but really wanted to in the general elections. I just didn't expect May to u-turn that soon and was late in going for citizenship.
Also, from what I've read about the high youth turnout, I think it usually means in line with other voting groups e.g. c.70%.
As I said above, I think there'll be an increase but it'll probably be a fairly slight one.
I'll eat Paddy Ashdown's entire collection of hats if it's that high.
Yup, Survation had a very bad end to the 2015 election as well so will be bricking it that bit more. ICM at least got the EU referendum about right. ComRes need a win.Someone's reputation will be down the shiter.
Not that I'm aware of, the difference is that they model turnout based on the past voting behaviour of each respondent, whereas Survation go by how likely the respondent says they are to vote on a scale of 0-10.
I might put some money on a Cons landslide. At least then there'll be something positive for Friday morning.
I think you might be surprised as there's been more social media buzz this time round. More than Brexit imo too and I think young people who were pissed at the Brexit result will want to vote this time round. It'll be the highest turn out for generations imo.
Nevertheless, I'm predicting this to be closer than expected - and no Tory landslide. Maybe even a hung parliament with a Tory minority government or the return of coalition
Not because of the youth vote, but just because of how terrible a campaign the Tories have fought. I've always been blue or yellow, never red, but on balance, it's hard to think of much that Corbyn has done wrong since the snap election was declared - he's been reasonable, humble and just gone on the attack just the right amount. Even I'm curious to see what he'd achieve in power.
May on the other hand, has seemed pretty damned wobbly, I don't even really understand what she stands for now.
The Conservative back benches must be crying out David Cameron - she makes him look like a class act with hindsight.
This has been a big factor regarding the surge in the polls for Labour. A lot of young remain voters jumped on the Lib Dems train at the start of the election because of their pro EU stance and a lot thought Labour were done for under Corbyn but as the election draws near the support for Lib Dems amongst young remainers has died down and most have switched to Labour now.
The referendum last year probably made a lot of younger people become politically motivated.
This guy got the last election result pretty spot on.
If he's right again, I fear the next 5 years http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/0...inal-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on.
If he's right again, I fear the next 5 years http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/0...inal-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on.
Totally agree with you here.
The problem is though that social media is never as representative as you think of the wider population. And while it is far, far more left-leaning and liberal than the general population as a whole, our perceptions of just how strong support for left-wing parties on it will also be slightly distorted because we're probably not following as many right-wing accounts. The youth vote will increase but it'll almost certainly still be a fair under the general turnout as a whole. Us politically engaged young people will always forget that there's plenty who don't care enough to vote on the day.
I do sense that the tide has turned with the youth this election.
It happened with the hype around Clegg but this time, it feels like its on a significantly larger scale.
I think its happening because of a few reasons
1) Trump victory
2) Brexit
3) Finally getting a candidate like Corbyn who they are excited by
4) They feel like they're being listened to and are being represented by a party leader who is different and not like the rest.
It happened with the hype around Clegg but this time, it feels like its on a significantly larger scale.
I think its happening because of a few reasons
1) Trump victory
2) Brexit
3) Finally getting a candidate like Corbyn who they are excited by
4) They feel like they're being listened to and are being represented by a party leader who is different and not like the rest.
Normally i'd agree, but there's been so much political talk since Brexit that I feel this is not a usual election. Those young people who didn't vote in Brexit and got their voice ignored will not be wanting to make the mistake again imo and it's still fairly recent so it's not like they will have forgotten about it. I'm probably over estimating the young and they'll disappoint us as normal, but I still think it will be a much higher turnout than normal (it won't be enough, but might help stop a Tory majority).
Election Data (Ian Warren) also did some great numbers today on the constituencies where under 50s outnumbered the over 50s. Labour already holds most of them with massive majorities.
But the youth turnout is going to be the most interesting thing by far. If they can turn out, and do so regularly in future when it's not just tuition fees on the line, it changes calculations by a lot.
But I'm not overly encouraged by the electorate only being around 500k bigger than 2015 on first estimates.
But the youth turnout is going to be the most interesting thing by far. If they can turn out, and do so regularly in future when it's not just tuition fees on the line, it changes calculations by a lot.
But I'm not overly encouraged by the electorate only being around 500k bigger than 2015 on first estimates.
I'd agree with that.
Yup, as would I.
So are phone polls supposed to be more accurate?
I don't represent youth per se (27 years old) but I'm voting in a general election for the first time ever for these reasons.
They are but if they're combined with unrealistic assumptions on turnout, they're just as useless.
No, they sucked so badly during the EU referendum that most have stopped using them now and gone online.
Would be hilarious if somehow....just somehow, JC becomes PM!
My popcorn would be out!
My popcorn would be out!
Didn’t they correctly predict the 2015 GE?