North Korea

ICBMs aren't hard, it's 1950 technology based on what the Nazis did in 44 & 45.

Making a nuke small enough to fit on top of one was a solved problem 50 years ago. Any nation state that wants one can build them.
 
I'm really not comfortable with this situation at all.

Kim is an absolute moron but at least he's a (relatively) know quantity. By that, I mean we know what he's going to do. He'll do launch tests. He'll sabre rattle. He'll unleash torrents of abuse at the Americans, Japanese and South Koreans. We know he'll do that.

Trump...I'm really not sure what he'll do. Which is a big worry in this situation. This is not, of course, to say that I am in any way trying to say Trump is as bad as Kim. Just that he makes this whole situation even more dangerous than it already is.
 
Worrying development.

They've managed to built this way before the experts predicted it would happen.
 
What do we think the odds are that Kim wants to feck up the life of absolute luxury and power that he has to start an unwinnable war?
 
What do we think the odds are that Kim wants to feck up the life of absolute luxury and power that he has to start an unwinnable war?

The odds are pretty slim, especially when you consider that his objective (as is the case with all dictators) is to stay in power. If he tries anything with the South or with his nuke program, he knows it will be the end.
 
The odds are pretty slim, especially when you consider that his objective (as is the case with all dictators) is to stay in power. If he tries anything with the South or with his nuke program, he knows it will be the end.
I've been trying to explain this to a friend of mine - fellow history teacher who I think a lot of - who just thinks Kim is nuts and wants a war. I like the guy, but I think he's dead wrong on this
 
I've been trying to explain this to a friend of mine - fellow history teacher who I think a lot of - who just thinks Kim is nuts and wants a war. I like the guy, but I think he's dead wrong on this

Its a bit like what a more reasonable fear was post-60s in the Cold War (and I'm possibly being revisionist): you have decent confidence that actors are rational, but are worried that mistakes, systems failures, misunderstandings, or anything else could cause rapid escalation.
 
That's been confirmed?
Are we talking about the initial nuclear technology or the latest mini nuke? Because Pakistan essentially handed over their entire program to the North Koreans in the 80s (about then). Well, the government claim it was that rogue scientist, but the Bhutto regime has a lot to answer for.

Wouldn't surprise me if NK arrived at the latest breakthrough solo, but only as a result of the helping hand it received from Pakistan all those years ago. This breakthrough is definitely in line with expectations (some said a year to two, which is about right).

Someone in '02 (ish) from the Pakistani cabinet that said NK was a necessary evil. Have to google it, but shows the level of thought coming from that regime.
 
I've been trying to explain this to a friend of mine - fellow history teacher who I think a lot of - who just thinks Kim is nuts and wants a war. I like the guy, but I think he's dead wrong on this

The question with Fat Boy is whether he's a rational actor or not. By rational I mean as in rational choice theory, not whether or not he's a rational guy. A lot of authoritarian figures are rational despite being dictators, but a small number are delusional nutjobs who think reality doesn't apply to them. Let's see which of the two Kim is.
 
Kim and Drumpf. What could possibly go wrong.
 
Trump: "Guam is actually a part of the United States, not a lot of people know that."
 
Trump: "Guam is actually a part of the United States, not a lot of people know that."

Sessions: "We don't care what you do with some island in the pacific, as long as you don't threaten America".
 
China needs to get it's pet under control and please someone change Trump's password so he can't access twitter.
 
A lot of authoritarian figures are rational despite being dictators, but a small number are delusional nutjobs who think reality doesn't apply to them. Let's see which of the two Kim is.
The only thing that comes from a North Korean attack would be the destruction of North Korea. I do think that the NK regime are rational in the economic theory sense. They have decades' worth of experience with this game of high stakes bluff. I think we'd see an internal coup before we saw any NK attack or nuclear launch.
 
The only thing that comes from a North Korean attack would be the destruction of North Korea. I do think that the NK regime are rational in the economic theory sense. They have decades' worth of experience with this game of high stakes bluff. I think we'd see an internal coup before we saw any NK attack or nuclear launch.
That's how I see them as well. The guy is in a palace, has tons of women, has Mercedes smuggled in for himself (he's materialistic), and has 20 odd million serfs.

Why feck that up?
 
That's how I see them as well. The guy is in a palace, has tons of women, has Mercedes smuggled in for himself (he's materialistic), and has 20 odd million serfs.

Why feck that up?

It's sort of a game of one ups manship though isn't it. The more aggressive Trump appears, the more aggressive he has to appear, and if you try to out biggly Trump, he's gonna out biggly you. Soon they will be arguing about whose dad could have beat up the other. The only problem is, these two, catastrophically retarded imbeciles, have their fingers potentially on nuclear triggers.
 
It's sort of a game of one ups manship though isn't it. The more aggressive Trump appears, the more aggressive he has to appear, and if you try to out biggly Trump, he's gonna out biggly you. Soon they will be arguing about whose dad could have beat up the other. The only problem is, these two, catastrophically retarded imbeciles, have their fingers potentially on nuclear triggers.
:lol: