Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[spiriticon]

Baltics are NATO though.

Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.

Bear in mind also, if Putin survives this, he will 100 percent sanction proof his economy for the future.

 

[RedC]

We're progressing toward a conflict either way. Putin has gotten away with infiltrating our democratic systems, assassinating people on our grounds with chemical weapons, taking pieces of various countries and now he's razing Ukraine for daring to reach out to West. Appeasement has clearly failed and the Finns apparently reconsidering Nato membership as well as Germany re-arming itself is already proof that this realization has made it into policy. If the West doesn't put up a firm reaction now, that puts him into place at least to some degree, Putin will just come back for more later. I'm not saying that it has to be full on war, but it can't be that the West cowers before him every time he say nuclear either.

There is a difference between what you suggest, and what some in this thread are baying for.

 

[Gambit]

The majority

Sanctions will be softened significantly. Russian economy is pretty dead, and in the next couple of weeks it will go kaboom. By that time Zelenskyy could be dead already and Ukraine will be "demilitarized". When it gets worse Russia will play natural gas and wheat cards. Then they will start talking about Russia's citizens suffering because of their dictator and some of the sanctions will be lifted. The botox face will remain in charge of Russia.

The sanctions will continue. Russia for all its bluster is economically less important now than it even was before. The gas and energy hits will be dealt with. Its actually incredible to me how much Putin has literally fecked up here. He's undone over 20 years of work in the space of 4 days.

 

[Rightnr]

I actually think instead of more sanctions on normal Russians all resources and more importantly political will should be directed towards uncovering and pulverising the Putin cabal's overseas assets and cash. Make them think they'll be eating borscht and going to Sochi on holiday in their fecking fishing boats unless they remove this guy.

 

[Widow]

Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.

Nonsense. Nobody will allow Russia to bully the world on the threat of nuclear war.

The USA didn't back down during the Cuban missile crisis at a time when the USSR were much stronger than today's Russia.

 

[Raoul]

I disagree for the reasons I mentioned but yeah, let's see how it pans out.

The initial threat of sanctions may have been rooted in a carrots and sticks approach to influence Putin’s calculus on the cost of invading. Now that he’s done so, they are a weapon to keep the pressure on him at home to force a regime change without fighting. Removing them would be viewed as a reward for having invaded and annexed Ukraine and would serve as a blueprint for his future invasion plans of other countries.

 

[Water Melon]

The sanctions will continue. Russia for all its bluster is economically less important now than it even was before. The gas and energy hits will be dealt with. Its actually incredible to me how much Putin has literally fecked up here. He's undone over 20 years of work in the space of 4 days.

I am ready to bet some of the sanctions will be lifted even if current Ukraine falls and have a puppet ruler.

 

[Rightnr]

There is a difference between what you suggest, and what some in this thread are baying for.

You had no response to my points but now you're spreading peace and 'common sense' without confrontation.

Truth may be uncomfortable but the price is always paid in the end.

 

[spiriticon]

Nonsense. Nobody will allow Russia to bully the world on the threat of nuclear war.

You say that but the truth is we're not seeing any evidence of that are we?

 

[Zehner]

So regarding the whole nuclear situation. It appears Putin has these supersonic missiles against which conventional missile defense systems appear to be ineffective. He also specifically referred to them multiple times ("we're ahead of the rest technologically in certain things" and "you won't even have enough time to evoke article 5"). They seem to have a limited range (~1000 km) so it is primarily Europe which is in danger of them.

But using them would pretty much be suicide. Because if he attacks then it has to be with severity that takes us out completely - but this would probably mean a scale of nuclear attack that had severe consequences of Russia's habitability, too, I reckon? And even if he did there would still be the revenge of the US as well as those of the UK submarines etc?

Surely that's no logical step to make at any point in time, regardless of how grim things look for him. He'd only use it if he completely lost it and is cornered without an exit. We're still far away from that and if it came thus far, the question remains if he'd be out of office at this stage or facing revolts.

It might also be the most senseful strategy to "deescelate" by prolonging events, avoiding interventions that might push him over the edge and cause impulsive reactions but rather support Ukraine in a way that they can hold onto their areas or go into a guerilla fight while letting the sanctions do their work. That being said, the West right now don't seem to afraid of the nuclear threat given that they support Ukraine with an arsenal of weapons that was - at least for me - not imaginable at the beginning of all this. Is this deseparation or calling a bluff?

It also seems that a big issue is that Putin as an individual is completely isolated in is echo chamber, surrounded by people who are too afraid to speak up to him. If we get more and more to do so, it might have an effect on him. What's missing in all of this is a way out for him without losing face.

 

[Gambit]

I am ready to bet some of the sanctions will be lifted even if current Ukraine falls and have a puppet ruler.

I believe Kyiv will fall. I also think Zelensky life is in serious danger, but killing him will create an incredible Martyr and we've all seen the will of the Ukranian people. I don't think any puppet government will ever be accepted. This will go on for years and the west will keep the western region armed and separate. It wouldn't surprise me the longer it goes on we will see China and the west coming together more as economic world trade is far to important to both and this is would be a great way for China's soft power plans to further and remove some of the anti china sentiment in the western world.

 

[sullydnl]

Probably another bloody revolution is needed, with somebody from the inside creating a coalition that people can get behind. Seems unlikely though, as he's got opposition already jailed or dead, and common folk who are not afraid to speak out, quickly put down. Police is behind him and not afraid to get their hands dirty.

I wonder what it would take for other currently powerful figures in Russia (be they oligarchs or high-ranking government members) to be pushed into a move against Putin?

 

[Varun]

The initial threat of sanctions may have been rooted in a carrots and sticks approach to influence Putin’s calculus on the cost of invading. Now that he’s done so, they are a weapon to keep the pressure on him at home to force a regime change without fighting. Removing them would be viewed as a reward for having invaded and annexed Ukraine and would serve as a blueprint for his future invasion plans of other countries.

I understand why they should stay, I think they won't regardless. The regime change angle must have been explored in the last few days and given the way Putin rules and protects himself, it doesn't look very good. That's why I think our best hope is a coup while putin is still fighting this war. If he wins, it'll be too late because I don't think Russian civilians will be screwed forever and concessions will be inevitable especially given he's seen crying nukes wins every time.

 

[IWat]

So regarding the whole nuclear situation. It appears Putin has these supersonic missiles against which conventional missile defense systems appear to be ineffective. He also specifically referred to them multiple times ("we're ahead of the rest technologically in certain things" and "you won't even have enough time to evoke article 5"). They seem to have a limited range (~1000 km) so it is primarily Europe which is in danger of them.

But using them would pretty much be suicide. Because if he attacks then it has to be with severity that takes us out completely - but this would probably mean a scale of nuclear attack that had severe consequences of Russia's habitability, too, I reckon? And even if he did there would still be the revenge of the US as well as those of the UK submarines etc?

Full-scale nuclear strikes are not something either side can defend against even with standard ICBM's being used.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

 

[sglowrider]

I actually think instead of more sanctions on normal Russians all resources and more importantly political will should be directed towards uncovering and pulverising the Putin cabal's overseas assets and cash. Make them think they'll be eating borscht and going to Sochi on holiday in their fecking fishing boats unless they remove this guy.

Reminded me of this Monty Python sketch:

 

[Widow]

You say that but the truth is we're not seeing any evidence of that are we?

Yes.

The West has dismissed his threat of nuclear war as a smoke screen to try and push Ukraine into surrender.

US and UK intelligence has already stated that they are monitoring Russian missiles the same way they did during Cuba. They have yet to see any change in the operating of them.

If the west allowed Russia to take a NATO state it would only encourage Putin to go further and seriously weaken the west's position, they won't allow that.

 

[Enigma_87]

Nonsense. Nobody will allow Russia to bully the world on the threat of nuclear war.

The USA didn't back down during the Cuban missile crisis at a time when the USSR were much stronger than today's Russia.

Spot on. People need to realize that attacking a non-NATO country and a NATO one has entirely different consequences and would be treated a lot differently. This is one of the main reasons why Putin also is so brave with his actions towards Ukraine.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Bear in mind also, if Putin survives this, he will 100 percent sanction proof his economy for the future.

How do you suppose he will do that? If Russia becomes truly isolated from the rest of the world economy, they will essentially have to source and produce everything themselves, which is simply not feasible. They will be cut off from all the economies of scale and comparative advantages in production that exist in the rest of the world. Things like consumer electronics, automobiles, medication, clothing, different kinds of foods, etc. will largely not be available or only available at a much higher price. Then there is of course also the issue of financing - direct investments into the Russian economy will not be possible, so capital will become a lot more expensive.

There is no such thing a sanction proofing an economy in a global market without severe repercussions for the quality of life.

 

[Maticmaker]

Putin has been given too long a run-up at it, both inside and outside Russia, he has nowhere to go now except full throttle. Wars are easier to start than they are to finish.

If the Eastern provinces of Ukraine are ceded to Putin, to get him back over the border, he will be back in 5 years especially when Russian economy recovers and when he has Nordstream 2 operational. If the two areas are not ceded he will seek to take all of the Ukraine under a old USSR type convention and put the 'sh**'s up all the other former USSR states, in a sort of "I'm coming for you next".

Its only the Russians themselves who can stop Putin. Nato is not prepared to start WW3, and Putin knows this... but he might be if he finds he has no where to go.
Omens are bad!

 

[Raoul]

That worked very well with Castro in Cuba, Chavez/Maduro in Venezuela, Kim in Korea, Khamenei in Iran and Sadam in Iraq.

They also did not have nukes. Well, Kim has some but not many and they are small.

Those were largely containment sanctions. These are far deeper and designed to destroy from within without the need to fire a single shot.

 

[the_cliff]

How do you suppose he will do that? If Russia becomes truly isolated from the rest of the world economy, they will essentially have to source and produce everything themselves, which is simply not feasible. They will be cut off from all the economies of scale and comparative advantages in production that exist in the rest of the world. Things like consumer electronics, automobiles, medication, clothing, different kinds of foods, etc. will largely not be available or only available at a much higher price. Then there is of course also the issue of financing - direct investments into the Russian economy will not be possible, so capital will become a lot more expensive.

There is no such thing a sanction proofing an economy in a global market without severe repercussions for the quality of life.

That's assuming Russia is cut of from the world economy as a whole. Trade with China, Brazil and India will solve these problems. I'm highly sceptical that these countries would cut off Russia from their economy.

 

[RobinLFC]

So regarding the whole nuclear situation. It appears Putin has these supersonic missiles against which conventional missile defense systems appear to be ineffective. He also specifically referred to them multiple times ("we're ahead of the rest technologically in certain things" and "you won't even have enough time to evoke article 5"). They seem to have a limited range (~1000 km) so it is primarily Europe which is in danger of them.

What use would they be then? Only a handful of European capitals come into play and no heavyweights (London, Paris, Berlin). They could barely get them to the nearest ones (Riga and Kyiv) if the range is 1.000km from Moscow (or where are they located)?

It also seems that a big issue is that Putin as an individual is completely isolated in is echo chamber, surrounded by people who are too afraid to speak up to him. If we get more and more to do so, it might have an effect on him. What's missing in all of this is a way out for him without losing face.

I think that's especially dangerous rather than a good thing. Surround yourself with people afraid to speak up and a nutcase can do whatever he wants to without any reflection. It'd be great if the Putin regime gets overthrown from inside Russia itself but I don't know enough about their political system to even know if that's possible or not.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

How do you suppose he will do that? If Russia becomes truly isolated from the rest of the world economy, they will essentially have to source and produce everything themselves, which is simply not feasible. They will be cut off from all the economies of scale and comparative advantages in production that exist in the rest of the world. Things like consumer electronics, automobiles, medication, clothing, different kinds of foods, etc. will largely not be available or only available at a much higher price. Then there is of course also the issue of financing - direct investments into the Russian economy will not be possible, so capital will become a lot more expensive.

There is no such thing a sanction proofing an economy in a global market without severe repercussions for the quality of life.

They don’t need to isolate themselves with the rest of the world though, just the US and Europe. They don’t import that much as it is.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

That's assuming Russia is cut of from the world economy as a whole. Trade with China, Brazil and India will solve these problems. I'm highly sceptical that these countries would cut off Russia from their economy.

If anything trade with them will increase.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

And even if he did there would still be the revenge of the US as well as those of the UK submarines etc?

The UK submarines are designed for that eventuality so even if the UK is destroyed then Russia will be too a few hours later. Even if Europe was destroyed and Russia wasn't the global economy would collapse and the likely result would be a new period of severe global instability with wars raging worldwide.

 

[Enigma_87]

I understand why they should stay, I think they won't regardless. The regime change angle must have been explored in the last few days and given the way Putin rules and protects himself, it doesn't look very good. That's why I think our best hope is a coup while putin is still fighting this war. If he wins, it'll be too late because I don't think Russian civilians will be screwed forever and concessions will be inevitable especially given he's seen crying nukes wins every time.

There are ongoing sanctions in many countries despite regime changes. Putin went too far to wave all those sanctions even if peace with Ukraine is committed.

He has prepared for sanctions - no doubt about that, but their economy would bear serious consequences for years to come. Prepared or not. Everything has its price and he won't be able to maneuver as easily as in the past (for example Crimea).

 

[IWat]

It’s depressing. I’ve unfortunately spiralled in to reading about this constantly and now I’m doing things like checking for bunkers in my immediate area or even more drastic, looking to leave the UK immediately. I work from home, as does my wife, so a move to somewhere remote for a couple of months is just about within possibility.

I know the above is absolutely stupid but thought I’d post it for anyone else going through the same so you know you’re not alone.

You're living in a country that has at least 1 sub underneath the ocean with the ability to decimate the city centres of circa the biggest 25 cities in Russia.

If you're not safe in the UK, there are few places you are going to be except in the middle of nowhere in noonecaresaboutland.

 

[Pintu]

How long before the sanctions start making the life of an average rural Putin supporter difficult?

Russia has gathered a $630 billion "rainy-day fund". Putin had been preparering himsef for the sanctions.

If the sanctions can really prevent him from accessing a majority of those funds, things will turn bad very quickly. Otherwise the sanctions will first harm the urban population with many western services being cut off, but it will not cause any significant pain for the rural population.

At the end, I think China’s position will be key when it comes to the sanctions effect. Many experts have been saying that without Chinese support, the Russian regime is unlikely to survive a month of sanctions.

 

[ShoePolish]

I wonder what it would take for other currently powerful figures in Russia (be they oligarchs or high-ranking government members) to be pushed into a move against Putin?

I would think seizing their hidden assets would do wonders for their allegiances, they can be negotiated with after. Problem is, they probably knew of this long time beforehand, and have adequatly prepared. On top of that, these days they are anywhere close to Putin only when they are summoned, probably patted down and their anal cavities checked.
As things stand, I don't think there's even a snowball to roll against him, and even if one forms, it will be rolling uphill.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Anonymous have been pretty active these days.

fecking round of applause

 

[the_cliff]

If anything trade with them will increase.

I also find it sceptical that the EU will in fact stop buying gas from Russia, you know since 1/3 of their total gas comes from there. It's not easy to find alternatives and alternatives with the infrastructure to start pumping such a large demand immediately.

Sanctions will have a lot less of an effect as people think on Putin, it will effect the general population of Russia more. Which imo is a double edged sword, either it turns them away from Putin (best case scenario) or they see it as the West effecting their quality of life and they decide to empower him.

 

[tomaldinho1]

That's assuming Russia is cut of from the world economy as a whole. Trade with China, Brazil and India will solve these problems. I'm highly sceptical that these countries would cut off Russia from their economy.

Of course they can still trade with them but you can’t just replace the biggest market in the world. Plus these countries aren’t charities, Russia will not be in a good negotiating position and will be taken advantage of - I don’t see how they generations of Russians don’t go through extreme poverty now unless they withdraw from Ukraine.

 

[TMDaines]

fecking hell, what a moment:

 

[Pexbo]

Anonymous have been pretty active these days.

I think Anonymous these days have been taken over by the CIA and are basically US Cozy Bear.

 

[IWat]

The UK submarines are designed for that eventuality so even if the UK is destroyed then Russia will be too a few hours later. Even if Europe was destroyed and Russia wasn't the global economy would collapse and the likely result would be a new period of severe global instability with wars raging worldwide.

I mean, it does depend on the PM's letter that is sealed in a safe on the subs.

It's one of the 1st duties of any new PM on the day they are elected.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

So the rhetoric seems to’ve shifted overnight from ‘Putin’s lost the plot and being embarrassed’ to ‘let’s lift sanctions and let him have Ukraine’…

You absolutely cannot have a glorified mafia thug in charge of Europe, it’s insane. He’s wrecking democracies and declaring wars left right and centre, ffs make a stand globally. The long run outcome is worth it.

The World needs to see that this won’t be tolerated because of one little man! - we need rid of him, now.

 

[spiriticon]

Yes.

The West has dismissed his threat of nuclear war as a smoke screen to try and push Ukraine into surrender.

US and UK intelligence has already stated that they are monitoring Russian missiles the same way they did during Cuba. They have yet to see any change in the operating of them.

If the west allowed Russia to take a NATO state it would only encourage Putin to go further and seriously weaken the west's position, they won't allow that.

So if we are not afraid of nuclear war as you say, but we are just sitting here happily watching Ukrainian people get mullered left, right and centre right now, then the West have to ask ourselves some really important moral questions.

 

[Mike Smalling]

That's assuming Russia is cut of from the world economy as a whole. Trade with China, Brazil and India will solve these problems. I'm highly sceptical that these countries would cut off Russia from their economy.

They don’t need to isolate themselves with the rest of the world though, just the US and Europe. They don’t import that much as it is.

True, they could increase trade with these nations, but if we are looking at the situation with the current sanctions, it would still be with a devastated ruble making their purchasing power much smaller. There might also be a bit of pressure from US/EU/UK on Brazil and India not to trade with Russia. Further, this would make Russia even more reliant on China, which I don't believe Putin wants - he wants to see Russia and China as equals, which they wouldn't be in that case.

 

[Rightnr]

fecking hell, what a moment:

Especially if it's really true the liar in chief lied yet again and gave his Russian buddies 30 days to cash out.
https://inews.co.uk/news/government...customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017

 

[Sarni]

You're looking to leave the UK? A tad dramatic don't you think? The UK is under no threat whatsoever from Putin.

I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.