Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Droid_Repairs]

Based on the recent polling that has come out about 74% of Americans in favor of no-fly zone, I feel that Western leaders may be forced to reconsider if Russia uses biological/chemical/thermobaric weapons or level cities to the ground indiscriminately. I think Russia suspect this so that's why they haven't gone full Aleppo yet.

BBC explained earlier that the public don't understand what a NFZ is. Most think that it's a polite request and fail to realise that it means shooting down Russian planes.

As for thermobarics, doubt Russia using them will mean much since, despite being awful, they're not illegal and have been used in recent conflicts by both the US and Russia.

 

[Raoul]

Based on the recent polling that has come out about 74% of Americans in favor of no-fly zone, I feel that Western leaders may be forced to reconsider if Russia uses biological/chemical/thermobaric weapons or level cities to the ground indiscriminately. I think Russia suspect this so that's why they haven't gone full Aleppo yet.

NATO are taking a reactive approach to all of this, hoping that supporting the Ukrainians with intel and weapons will stave off Russian advances long enough to where they run into logistics and morale issues, and at the same time, Russia implodes from within and in the process forces Putin into some sort of negotiation.

I do agree that the harder Putin goes after civilians, the harder it will be for NATO to not intervene in some way.

 

[sglowrider]

Medium term is maybe 6 months to 3 years from now. Unless he dies from natural causes, my guess is that Putin will still be in power during this period.

I don't know how he remains in power say 2 yrs from now with the economic pressures building up.

He is trying to make it like some North Korean propaganda hermit kingdom when the cat's already out of the bag and they have had all the exposure to western lifestyles.

The only option is slowly and begrudgingly, cap in hand and ask China for some major financial support. And that's a tough one since Russians see themselves as superior or at worst equal to the Chinese.

He has basically checkmated himself.

 

[Wibble]

Well they invented Fanta for the Nazis, so no shock here.

Brought WW2 to a rapid end allegedly

 

[sglowrider]

Funny but I was just looking at the (still up and not banned) Putin twitter account:

He is trying to show that he's busy and hard at work for the Russian people. ''Everything's normal'' basically.



Still referring to it as 'Special Military Operations'' *



* not sure why he would still use that term? Its not for domestic consumption since the Hermit Kindom North Koreans Russians have no access to it now. And certainly, we aren't fooled by this ''training exercise''.

An interesting tweet from a yesterday:



Assuming the call to Salman was because he was looking for a new supplier for bone saws?

 

[GlastonSpur]

I don't know how he remains in power say 2 yrs from now with the economic pressures building up.

He is trying to make it like some North Korean propaganda hermit kingdom when the cat's already out of the bag and they have had all the exposure to western lifestyles.

The only option is slowly and begrudgingly, cap in hand and ask China for some major financial support. And that's a tough one since Russians see themselves as superior or at worst equal to the Chinese.

He has basically checkmated himself.

I hope you are right. But he has been in power for a long, long time now - long enough to ensure that he is totally surrounded by loyalists, with everyone else under his thumb. Moreover, his career background is KGB/FSB, so he knows all about security, threats to that security and how to nullify those threats, whether through assassination, blackmail or financial inducements.

 

[sglowrider]

I hope you are right. But he has been in power for a long, long time now - long enough to ensure that he is totally surrounded by loyalists, with everyone else under his thumb. Moreover, his career background is KGB/FSB, so he knows all about security, threats to that security and how to nullify those threats, whether through assassination, blackmail or financial inducements.

Yes but 22yrs in power makes him 'fat' and out of touch. There must be some laws of diminishing returns for any dictator on how long they can stay in power before landing up dying painfully like a Gaddafi.

 

[Red Dreams]

NATO are taking a reactive approach to all of this, hoping that supporting the Ukrainians with intel and weapons will stave off Russian advances long enough to where they run into logistics and morale issues, and at the same time, Russia implodes from within and in the process forces Putin into some sort of negotiation.

I do agree that the harder Putin goes after civilians, the harder it will be for NATO to not intervene in some way.

No Fly Zone?

 

[sglowrider]

No Fly Zone?

You want WW3?

 

[Droid_Repairs]

No Fly Zone?

Nuclear armageddon.

 

[Wibble]

Based on the recent polling that has come out about 74% of Americans in favor of no-fly zone, I feel that Western leaders may be forced to reconsider if Russia uses biological/chemical/thermobaric weapons or level cities to the ground indiscriminately. I think Russia suspect this so that's why they haven't gone full Aleppo yet.

About the same believe in angels so I'm not sure that it is a good metric.

 

[Ramshock]

Those are two pretty unlikely extremes in fairness.

Unless you're being sarcastic. I'm not even sure in this thread anymore.

no just sick of it

 

[WI_Red]

About the same believe in angels so I'm not sure that it is a good metric.

Do you believe?

 

[Raoul]

 

[Shakesy]

During the Second World War, the US established a trade embargo against Nazi Germany, making the export of Coca-Cola syrup difficult.[2] To circumvent this, Max Keith, the head of Coca-Cola Deutschland (Coca-Cola GmbH), decided to create a new product for the German market, using only ingredients available in Germany at the time

The most delightfully useless bit of info I've come across this year! Love it!

 

[Sir Matt]

Read this yesterday. Even as a college student, I thought realism was overly simplistic and dumb. Mearsheimer looks like a moron from that interview (accepting an interview with Isaac Chotiner thinking thinking he'd look great in it proves he's a moron).

 

[Beans]

Read a suggestion to deny Russia coffee and cigarettes, have to say it’s a great idea, if possible.

 

[Sir Matt]

If this is true, that's impressive as hell.

 

[Varun]

About the same believe in angels so I'm not sure that it is a good metric.

Tbf, I don't think too many people actually understand what it means to call and enforce a NFZ. People think it's just something you announce and suddenly no one flies over it

 

[Varun]

Read a suggestion to deny Russia coffee and cigarettes, have to say it’s a great idea, if possible.

They'll go nuclear over this

 

[Beans]

Read this yesterday. Even as a college student, I thought realism was overly simplistic and dumb. Mearsheimer looks like a moron from that interview (accepting an interview with Isaac Chotiner thinking thinking he'd look great in it proves he's a moron).

This is the only video on YouTube with “Ukraine” and “fault” in it, gone from 7 million views when it was first posted in this thread to 15 now.

He seems to feel that Russia should be allowed to control the Eastern Hemisphere the way the US controls the Western, i.e. no one else’s soldiers are allowed in the Americas (besides locals and the US).

And since Russia can’t defend its southern plains effectively they should be allowed to control Ukraine.

Made sense in the USSR, not any more.

 

[Klopper76]

Am I wrong to be shocked that Russia still hasn’t taken Kiev at this point?

 

[Varun]

Am I wrong to be shocked that Russia still hasn’t taken Kiev at this point?

Naah, think everyone's been pleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian fightback. If he survives, zelensky is set to become an absolute legend. Even if he doesn't tbf but always better if he does

 

[Winrar]

At this point I'm afraid Putin will escalate this war up to the point before nuclear weapons, in an attempt to hasten Ukraine's downfall.

Western nations are already doing everything they can to damage Russia. The sactions and cost of waging the war will escalate as this crisis continues, which means it's not in Putin's interest to prolong this war.

Putin will have to quash unrest at home as well, which means martial law, more crackdown on liberties, and ultimately more suffering for the Russian people.

Also shoutout to the Belarusian people who are taken hostage by their own dictator figure Lukashenko, alienating themselves from the world and suffering as a result.

 

[frostbite]

At this point I'm afraid Putin will escalate this war up to the point before nuclear weapons, in an attempt to hasten Ukraine's downfall.

Western nations are already doing everything they can to damage Russia. The sactions and cost of waging the war will escalate as this crisis continues, which means it's not in Putin's interest to prolong this war.

Putin will have to quash unrest at home as well, which means martial law, more crackdown on liberties, and ultimately more suffering for the Russian people.

Also shoutout to the Belarusian people who are taken hostage by their own dictator figure Lukashenko, alienating themselves from the world and suffering as a result.

The cost for Russia will remain, even if Putin wins the war.

 

[sglowrider]

If this is true, that's impressive as hell.

"Monstrous Provocation": Russia Claims Attack On Nuclear Plant By Ukrainians

Russia's defence ministry on Friday blamed an attack at the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine on Ukrainian saboteurs, calling it a monstrous provocation.

Ukraine has said Russian forces attacked the plant in the early hours of Friday, setting an adjacent five-storey training facility on fire, in an incident that provoked international condemnation of Moscow, a week into its invasion of Ukraine.

A Russian defence ministry spokesman said the nuclear plant was operating normally and the area had been under Russian control since Feb. 28.

"However, last night on the territory adjacent to the power plant, an attempt was made by the Kyiv nationalist regime to carry out a monstrous provocation," spokesman Igor Konashenkov was quoted as saying.

He said that a Russian national guard patrol was attacked by a Ukrainian sabotage group on the territory adjacent to the plant.

The Russian Defence Ministry spokesperson stated that Ukrainian claims of the attack on Zaporizhzhia coming from Moscow were an "attempt to blame Russia for causing a radioactive hotbed". He said the shelling of the plant was a "lie".

 

[Champ]

Naah, think everyone's been pleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian fightback. If he survives, zelensky is set to become an absolute legend. Even if he doesn't tbf but always better if he does

I think if he gets assassinated or killed during fighting, he will be hailed as an international hero for generations to come, like some modern Garabaldi or even Che type figure, the enduring image being his first salute to the EU.
Almost like he has to die to become that martyr!

Hoping he survives this however, the world needs more leaders like him.

 

[Klopper76]

 

[TMDaines]

Am I wrong to be shocked that Russia still hasn’t taken Kiev at this point?

Probably, at least since the first night when it felt like Ukraine might fall in hours. It became very clear quite quickly than Russia sending missiles all over the country in those opening exchanges was all about shock and awe, rather than an indication of how quickly they could cover large areas of Ukraine.

Kyiv is a huge city, one of Europe’s biggest, it will always be a long siege if it falls. Destroying it will be easier option than controlling it.

 

[TMDaines]

Kofman wants people to be a bit more realistic. Russia becoming a spent force, even in weeks, doesn’t mean this really ends with a glorious Ukrainian victory.

 

[FootyGirl88]

 

[Jotun]

Am I wrong to be shocked that Russia still hasn’t taken Kiev at this point?

You shouldn't be shocked. Anybody who was confident this would be done quickly wasn't paying attention to the history. Mainly Yugoslav wars as last european conflict. Plenty of sieges there that went on for months and years. Ofcourse this isn't completely the same, but I believe when defending the one key resource is morale. It can significantly drive manpower, as we are seeing right now. Equipment, resources and food is also important but strong morale will keep you going even when they are low. But that is not an issue for Ukraine as yhey get supplied by west. Low morale OTOH, well we are seeing how Russians are performing.

Of course there was always a chance Russia would steamroll. They still might kick up a gear and overwhelm eastern ukraine. They've been advancing in south east, perhaps just slower than expected.

 

[TheLiverBird]

An excuse for killing civilians when the ceasefire ends essentially (if it ever even started?)

“We warned you” and all that crap

 

[hasanejaz88]

Am I wrong to be shocked that Russia still hasn’t taken Kiev at this point?

Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

 

[altodevil]

When did Marco Rubio become the IndyKaila of the crisis?

 

[the hea]

Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

The US/UK taking of Baghdad is in no way comparable to this. Baghdad was on the other side of the world while Kyiv is only 200km from the Russian border, and even closer from the Belarussian.

The fact that the Russian army is not able to supply their troops with fuel and food while being that close to home shows how badly run they are.

 

[sglowrider]

Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

You cant compare the size of the Ukrainian military with that of Saddam's military. Iraq had a lot more tanks, planes and soldiers -- a lot who were battle-harden from its previous conflicts.
Big diff.

 

[onemanarmy]

 

[africanspur]

The US/UK taking of Baghdad is in no way comparable to this. Baghdad was on the other side of the world while Kyiv is only 200km from the Russian border, and even closer from the Belarussian.

The fact that the Russian army is not able to supply their troops with fuel and food while being that close to home shows how badly run they are.

Do you think the USA/UK were just supplying troops to Iraq directly from their countries for that conflict?

Think it should be clear by now that this cartoonish view of the Russian military as some incredible shadow force is nonsense (which makes sense with an economy smaller than Italy's). They've suffered a lot of (very satisfying) reverses but think it's kind of stemmed from a media led impression as well beforehand that Russian tanks would still be able to roll across Eastern Europe in no time. Which goes with this view of the Russian military above.

 

[Revan]

Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

Baghdad is over 600km away from Kuwait, Kyiv is 90km away from Belarus. So of course it would take longer to reach Baghdad.

US and their allies lost 172 soldiers (and around 20 Kurtish allies but they were not under their command) to overthrow Sadam. Russia has already lost a few thousand soldiers in this.

I think that the US lost 4 tanks and 8 aircraft during the invasion. Russia has lost hundreds of tanks (for more than 80 there is photo evidence) and likely a few dozen aircrafts.