Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

`Assuming this is true of course. Reports of fuel shortages, with no actual evidence to back this up. So far the western military experts being paraded by the media have got nearly everything wrong. They make assertions with nothing to back those assertions up. Even dreaming up ridiculous stories about the Russians preparing a false flag attack. Using crisis actors as Russian casualties. This sort of nonsense would not look out of place on a QAnon website. What about the capture of Europes largest nuclear power station. These so called experts didn't see that one coming, did they. The trouble is that we in the west are being fed a totally one sided view by a media that is supposed to impartial. About as impartial as the state run TV in Russia. One thing is certain about these sanctions is that it will push the Russians into closer political and economic ties with China and is incredibly myopic.
When was this?
 
`Assuming this is true of course. Reports of fuel shortages, with no actual evidence to back this up. So far the western military experts being paraded by the media have got nearly everything wrong. They make assertions with nothing to back those assertions up. Even dreaming up ridiculous stories about the Russians preparing a false flag attack. Using crisis actors as Russian casualties. This sort of nonsense would not look out of place on a QAnon website. What about the capture of Europes largest nuclear power station. These so called experts didn't see that one coming, did they. The trouble is that we in the west are being fed a totally one sided view by a media that is supposed to impartial. About as impartial as the state run TV in Russia. One thing is certain about these sanctions is that it will push the Russians into closer political and economic ties with China and is incredibly myopic.
So, you’re against sanctions? What should we be doing then? I’m choosing to ignore your ridiculous assertion that western media is equivalent in terms of impartiality as Russian state TV.
 
It's obvious to anyone with any military knowledge this is a cake walk for Russians. Without any foreign involvement it's like a premier league club taking on a div 4 side.
A cake walk? No. But some are clearly confusing Russia facing more challenges than expected, to mean Russia will be defeated. Which is also unlikely to be true.
 
A cake walk? No. But some are clearly confusing Russia facing more challenges than expected, to mean Russia will be defeated. Which is also unlikely to be true.

In terms of war, yes a cake walk. Russia currently has total air superiority. They are not facing more resistance than expected -- Ukraine is a country with a military and they knew well there would be the odd loss of tanks and helicopters.

The military strength of the two is not comparable at all.
 
In terms of war, yes a cake walk. Russia currently has total air superiority. They are not facing more resistance than expected -- Ukraine is a country with a military and they knew well there would be the odd loss of tanks and helicopters.

The military strength of the two is not comparable at all.
This is questionable at the moment
 
In terms of war, yes a cake walk. Russia currently has total air superiority. They are not facing more resistance than expected -- Ukraine is a country with a military and they knew well there would be the odd loss of tanks and helicopters.

The military strength of the two is not comparable at all.

They may have some degree of superiority, but not supremacy, which is frankly embarrassing after 11 days. Most of the Ukrainian Air Force and its planes are still functioning and of course they are shooting Russian air assets out of the sky on a daily basis.
 
`Assuming this is true of course. Reports of fuel shortages, with no actual evidence to back this up. So far the western military experts being paraded by the media have got nearly everything wrong. They make assertions with nothing to back those assertions up. Even dreaming up ridiculous stories about the Russians preparing a false flag attack. Using crisis actors as Russian casualties. This sort of nonsense would not look out of place on a QAnon website. What about the capture of Europes largest nuclear power station. These so called experts didn't see that one coming, did they. The trouble is that we in the west are being fed a totally one sided view by a media that is supposed to impartial. About as impartial as the state run TV in Russia. One thing is certain about these sanctions is that it will push the Russians into closer political and economic ties with China and is incredibly myopic.

:lol: Clearly you missed the video from the Donbas soldiers showing a civilian whose leg was blown off by Ukrainian shelling but already had a cover for his prosthesis on the leg that got blown off. Or the numerous other videos that were faked to use as pretext with things like explosion audio samples that end abruptly 3/4 of the way through the explosion.

Also, the Ukrainians took back the power station earlier.
 
This is questionable at the moment

They may have some degree of superiority, but not supremacy, which is frankly embarrassing after 11 days. Most of the Ukrainian Air Force and its planes are still functioning and of course they are shooting Russian air assets out of the sky on a daily basis.

AFAIK Ukraine has not been able to gain any control in the air, hence calls for a no fly zone.
 
:lol: Clearly you missed the video from the Donbas soldiers showing a civilian whose leg was blown off by Ukrainian shelling but already had a cover for his prosthesis on the leg that got blown off. Or the numerous other videos that were faked to use as pretext with things like explosion audio samples that end abruptly 3/4 of the way through the explosion.

Also, the Ukrainians took back the power station earlier.
Where was that reported? (The last part)
 
AFAIK Ukraine has not been able to gain any control in the air, hence calls for a no fly zone.

Obviously, because the Russians have more air power and SAMs than they do and are using it to indiscriminately bomb civilians.
 
Obviously, because the Russians have more air power and SAMs than they do and are using it to indiscriminately bomb civilians.

Well I'm not arguing how they achieve it or the morals but the fact that there are some fairy tale stories of Ukraine resistance that I don't think is too true.
 
Well I'm not arguing how they achieve it or the morals but the fact that there are some fairy tale stories of Ukraine resistance that I don't think is too true.
You keep moving the goal post. You’re right, there are fairy tale stories which are most like exaggeration or plain false. But your original notion that this is a cake walk is thankfully factually refuted. And whilst Russia has air superiority, to me “complete” air superiority suggests the Russian Air Force can do whatever they want, move where they want, can transport things airially unharmed. I don’t think it’s quite at that stage yet.

I think Russia eventually “winning” against the Ukrainian military is a very likely outcome. But I do dispute your notion that it’s going plain sailing. Whether it makes much of a difference I don’t know.
 
In terms of war, yes a cake walk. Russia currently has total air superiority. They are not facing more resistance than expected -- Ukraine is a country with a military and they knew well there would be the odd loss of tanks and helicopters.

The military strength of the two is not comparable at all.

The military strength of the two doesn't need to be comparable because against a determined defence the attackers will lose personnel at a much higher rate than the defenders, and this imbalance of losses will be hugely magnified when it comes to actually trying to take a well-defended city ... as the Germans discovered at Stalingrad. And all the while, more anti-Russian fighters return/pour into Ukraine, along with more anti-armour missiles, drones and anti-aircraft missiles.

Moreover, it's pretty clear that Russian losses far exceed just "the odd loss of tanks and helicopters". And the longer it continues, the more Russian re-supply issues - food, fuel, ammunition, medical supplies - will mount.

They are also in a country where they are surrounded by a large and deeply hostile civilian population.

My prediction is that the Russians will fail to take Kiev and fail to occupy more than one-third of Ukraine.
 
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He was in China before that. Go figure why he didn't stay there.
China is far worse. The people there have no liberties whatsoever. If Obama/Trump wanted him they would have sold him quite happily. Putin only protected Snowden to use him in his anti-West propaganda.

Before obtaining asylum he could only go to a country that lacks an extradition treaty with the US. And most of the democracies actually have treaties with the US. I think he really expected France or Germany to step up and welcome him, many politicians have said he should be granted asylum but his application was rejected by France (when he was still in Hongkong) and that meant he couldn't apply for it in Schengen countries after that.
 
So, you’re against sanctions? What should we be doing then? I’m choosing to ignore your ridiculous assertion that western media is equivalent in terms of impartiality as Russian state TV.

Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
 
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
Someone's been drinking from the Russian propaganda fountain.
 
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
Do you support the invasion of Ukraine?
 
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.

Sanctions will ultimately topple Putin because he doesn't have the means to survive the suffocating sanctions the EU and NATO have imposed on him. The line that Putin will simply pivot to China line will not work since a vast majority of financial messaging takes place over SWIFT. The Russian economy is about to face a deep depression and Putin is powerless to stop it.
 
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.
You are absolutely right, of course.

Just yesterday I was on the metro and this crazy dumbass was shouting on loudspeaker (no mask on, of course), that she'd read a bit of Russian literature, the Ukrainians were fascists and racists because they weren't letting foreign students out of the country and that it was all conspiracy.

And completely on point with your assertions, she was arrested by police as soon as she exited the train, just like Russia. This last bit of course is not true because I don't live in Putin's despotic Russia.

As for your other points, the Russian public has been happy to live under Putin for years. He's done plenty of vile things but they just got on with it (not all but most, implicitly or explicitly). Now it's hitting them directly and we're supposed to feel sorry for them? At what point does a nation have to stand up and take accountability?
 
You keep moving the goal post. You’re right, there are fairy tale stories which are most like exaggeration or plain false. But your original notion that this is a cake walk is thankfully factually refuted. And whilst Russia has air superiority, to me “complete” air superiority suggests the Russian Air Force can do whatever they want, move where they want, can transport things airially unharmed. I don’t think it’s quite at that stage yet.

I think Russia eventually “winning” against the Ukrainian military is a very likely outcome. But I do dispute your notion that it’s going plain sailing. Whether it makes much of a difference I don’t know.

I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
 
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.

The last bit clearly isn't true. If anything, the Russian military has proven itself to be incompetent in terms of logistics and its ability to follow a coherent strategy, at a time when it has a clear advantage in terms of weaponry. It has now switched tactics to indiscriminately attacking civilians, which is a sign of weakness that will lead to its demise (as well as that of Putin's within Russia).
 
Sanctions will not work and will push the Russians into closer economic ties with the Chinese. Sanctions only hurt ordinary people and usually have the opposite outcome and rally a country behind its leader and against the people imposing the sanctions on them. They never hurt the wealthy and powerful leaders they claim to target. Notice how careful the west are being in selecting sanctions that will do no or little damage to themselves. So yes I do not support action in the form of sanctions that are aimed at destroying the lives or ordinary people, like me, living in Russia.

In terms of this conflict the western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media. My statement is not an assertion it is based on solid evidence. Have you not been watching and reading western media coverage? Both the west and Russia are feeding their respective publics with outright propaganda. Perhaps you would like to share an example of our wonderful news media and its impartiality in relation to this conflict.

Where do you think the money comes from to finance the Russian war machine? Where do you think the money will come from for Russia to replace lost/destroyed military equipment, replenish supplies of missile, bombs, shells etc.

The answer is that comes from taxes on the Russian economy and profits from state-owned enterprises. That economy is tanking - in 6 months from now, if not sooner, it will be on the verge of collapse. Unemployment will sky-rocket, inflation will be rampant, GDP will shrink massively. Closer economic ties will China will not prevent this - indeed, it's doubtful that China will want to get more involved with an economic basket-case.

This sanctions now being applied - completely unprecedented in scale and scope - will hurt Russian military power badly.

As for the laughable notion that "western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media": in the West there are multiple sources of news and information, thousands of different radio and TV stations, hundreds of different newspapers and news-magazines, and generally uncensored access to the internet.

In Russia, there is now just one, monolithic source of news - the gangster-regime of Putin. No independent TV, radio or newspapers. And no free access to the internet except for those clever enough to find work-arounds via VPN.

It's bad that ordinary Russians will suffer. But there is just one man to blame for this - the dictator Putin.
 
The military strength of the two doesn't need to be comparable because against a determined defence the attackers will lose personnel at a much higher rate than the defenders, and this imbalance of losses will be hugely magnified when it comes to actually trying to take a well-defended city ... as the Germans discovered at Stalingrad. And all the while, more anti-Russian fighters return/pour into Ukraine, along with more anti-armour missiles, drones and anti-aircraft missiles.

Moreover, it's pretty clear that Russian losses far exceed just "the odd loss of tanks and helicopters". And the longer it continues, the more Russian re-supply issues - food, fuel, ammunition, medical supplies - will mount.

They are also in a country where they are surrounded by a large and deeply hostile civilian population.

My prediction is that the Russians will fail to take Kiev and fail to occupy more than one-third of Ukraine.

While it is true that the attacking military force will suffer more losses I don't think you can compare the siege of Stalingrad by a starving disease ridden German army dressed in summer clothing, with what's happening in Ukraine. We are only speculating on Russian losses but we can be sure they are being under reported by the state run and controller Russian. media.

I am very sceptical at claims from either side. I don't think the Russian military have the resources to occupy a huge country like Ukraine and as you say they face a country surrounded by a hostile civilian population. I don't see that as part of the Russian plan. My guess, and it's only a guess is for the Russians to create a new neutral area, effectively a buffer zone to protect the Russian border against the further eastern expansion of NATO that would include hostile troops and nukes sitting on the Russian border.
 

The ukraine map looks pretty accurate, at least looking at the reports. Kharkov doesn't seem as stressed as it did days ago but Melitopol seems without any options.
There is a piece of land occupied by Ukraine but surrounded. I wonder if any offensive to occupy that bank of the Dnieper would be possible, from Nikopol to Energodar, or from Zaporizhia, if they have taken the power station and are in a position to advance
 
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.
If only half of Ukraine's claims are true, the Russian military has taken a big hit whilst invading Ukraine.
 
You are absolutely right, of course.

Just yesterday I was on the metro and this crazy dumbass was shouting on loudspeaker (no mask on, of course), that she'd read a bit of Russian literature, the Ukrainians were fascists and racists because they weren't letting foreign students out of the country and that it was all conspiracy.

And completely on point with your assertions, she was arrested by police as soon as she exited the train, just like Russia. This last bit of course is not true because I don't live in Putin's despotic Russia.

As for your other points, the Russian public has been happy to live under Putin for years. He's done plenty of vile things but they just got on with it (not all but most, implicitly or explicitly). Now it's hitting them directly and we're supposed to feel sorry for them? At what point does a nation have to stand up and take accountability?

Most haven't been happy. They don't have a choice. I personally agree with sanctions, the alternatives are worse. It is either sitting on the side while ukrainians get slaughtered or go into a far more destructive war. But I can't help feeling for the population in Russia that will suffer from these necessary sanctions.

When the democraticly elected western government commits war crimes after war crimes around the word, it is not the fault of those who elected them. People who voted for Tony Blair certainly didn't do that because they wanted him to send his army and bomb the hell out of the iraqi people. And most aren't even aware of the UK's role in the ongoing Yemeni war... Blaming the populations for what their leaders do is disgusting and very dangerous.
 
The ukraine map looks pretty accurate, at least looking at the reports. Kharkov doesn't seem as stressed as it did days ago but Melitopol seems without any options.
There is a piece of land occupied by Ukraine but surrounded. I wonder if any offensive to occupy that bank of the Dnieper would be possible, from Nikopol to Energodar, or from Zaporizhia, if they have taken the power station and are in a position to advance

The map on the bottom tweet is probably more accurate imo, since the Russians don't have the manpower to hold territory because their forces have to move on to the next location to continue going deeper into Ukraine. Most people have been led to believe that the map on the top tweet is the accurate one, which is misleading imo.
 
Where do you think the money comes from to finance the Russian war machine? Where do you think the money will come from for Russia to replace lost/destroyed military equipment, replenish supplies of missile, bombs, shells etc.

The answer is that comes from taxes on the Russian economy and profits from state-owned enterprises. That economy is tanking - in 6 months from now, if not sooner, it will be on the verge of collapse. Unemployment will sky-rocket, inflation will be rampant, GDP will shrink massively. Closer economic ties will China will not prevent this - indeed, it's doubtful that China will want to get more involved with an economic basket-case.

This sanctions now being applied - completely unprecedented in scale and scope - will hurt Russian military power badly.

As for the laughable notion that "western media are every bit as culpable as the Russian state run media": in the West there are multiple sources of news and information, thousands of different radio and TV stations, hundreds of different newspapers and news-magazines, and generally uncensored access to the internet.

In Russia, there is now just one, monolithic source of news - the gangster-regime of Putin. No independent TV, radio or newspapers. And no free access to the internet except for those clever enough to find work-arounds via VPN.

It's bad that ordinary Russians will suffer. But there is just one man to blame for this - the dictator Putin.
 
I don't know what your definition is of a cake walk. It's a war against an established country so no one expected Russia to just walk in there without any resistance. In the grand scheme of things the thing that is hurting Russia is economic sanctions and being cutoff from the globe. Ukraine's military or defenses will not bother them in the least.

Then why have the Russians been so hesitant to commit more of their air force to the war? Because they keep getting shot down (apparently 44 planes, 44 helicopters). If they are so unbothered, why are they resorting to indiscriminate bombardment of civilians from afar? Why can't they get a single column from the border to Kyiv?

Russia wouldn't be leveling cities and murdering civilians if things were going well.
 
Most haven't been happy. They don't have a choice. I personally agree with sanctions, the alternatives are worse. It is either sitting on the side while ukrainians get slaughtered or go into a far more destructive war. But I can't help feeling for the population in Russia that will suffer from these necessary sanctions.

When the democraticly elected western government commits war crimes after war crimes around the word, it is not the fault of those who elected them. People who voted for Tony Blair certainly didn't do that because they wanted him to send his army and bomb the hell out of the iraqi people. And most aren't even aware of the UK's role in the ongoing Yemeni war... Blaming the populations for what their leaders do is disgusting and very dangerous.

No one knows what people would do when they get into office but they sure as hell know what they've done when they vote for them again. So, from that point of view, people in democracies certainly have responsibility. If they decide to close their eyes to it, that's still on them and no amount of adjectives like 'disgusting' changes that truth.

As for Russia, the truth of the matter is that there are no ways for people to express their opinion except for widespread discontent on a scale that it simply cannot be ignored. To get to that point, you need the everyday person to feel the heat. Again, you go on about preaching but this the reality of it, just like the reality that women and children, on top of their fathers, sons and brothers are getting killed in Ukraine because he wanted his empire back.

I just need to state this clearly, I don't want people in Russia to be punished but short of all-out war, the West is out of options.