First of all, even the original thread is very speculative to say the least (including misquoting the only direct quote that he includes). It’s incredibly hard to properly reconstruct what was happening at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (Hitler’s invasion of Russia), as all sources are extremely biased towards themselves, but Galeev’s version is extremely far-fetched.
As for Putin, we’ll never know. He doesn’t have a smartphone or a direct internet access (willingly), so he’s extremely reliant on the rigid chain that updates him with information, but I doubt that anyone would dare to significantly alter the real numbers/situation — if anything, lying to Putin has to be scarier than telling him disappointing truth. Obviously all of the info would be slightly altered to fit the narrative better, but I doubt that it would be completely altered. And you have to understand that the guys that supply Putin with info (FSB & FSS) aren’t military, so Putin’s anger won’t be directed at them.
As the apparent FSB informant said, they were only bullshitting on the potential projections of a future war as no one thought that it was a realistic perspective — so they’ve focused their analysis on different scenarios. Now, when the war is in action, it’s a different point.