Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Taiwan should definitely try to develop nukes. Otherwise, within 2 decades, they are going to be invaded.

The problem though is that likely China will realize that and then try to invade immediately, while for US it would become hard to defend Taiwan in that case.

They are in a very hard position. I think their best long-term case is to be another Hong-Kong.
 
11101 said:
This is why they're building Mosaic Warfare as DARPA calls it. Drone swarms assisting existing aircraft, ships etc to command them. They think it will make everything 50% more lethal and 50% less likely to sustain losses and can carpet cover a large area.




Yeah, I'm not talking next year. This is 10-20 years away at least imo. China hasn't been buying much Russian hardware in a long time either they've been busy developing their own.
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It is not always just about the standard of kit.
One of the most important things to developed relates to the Logistics. Right thing, right place, right time.
Logistic Support is far more critical than many people perceive.
 
11101 said:
I disagree. Xi is biding his time but one day in the future they absolutely will invade. Look at how many amphibious landing ships they are building. They know they can't do it yet so they're taking the time to build up the equipment they need, and watching how the world responded to Russia here.

Put it another way, if the roles were reversed the US could invade Taiwan and nobody could stop them. That's where Xi wants to get to.
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How many will survive to make it to a beach? And then you have establish and defend beach-heads in order for more troops and equipment to land, all the while under attack from land and air. And then, with no easy means of resupply for food, medical supplies, ammunition, fuel (etc) you have push inland and try to conquer and occupy a 14,000 sq.miles island, against a well-equipped military 300,000-strong plus 3.6m reserves.

It's an incredibly difficult task, far, far harder that what Russia is facing is Ukraine.
 
I don't think there's a rush for China to "integrate" Taiwan. It's probably wiser to play the long game; improve their military, continue building out those artificial islands, and most importantly influence Taiwan's public/political climate behind the scenes.
 
Redlyn said:
I don't get why civilians who have nothing to do with the war have their personal assets impacted.
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Google the word "Oligarch" and look up how Putin became what he is today if your statement was serious
 
Boavista said:
I don't think there's a rush for China to "integrate" Taiwan. It's probably wiser to play the long game; improve their military, continue building out those artificial islands, and most importantly influence Taiwan's public/political climate behind the scenes.
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I agree it will be a long game. Year 2049 it will be the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. They will want to have fully integrated Taiwan 10 years before that.
 
Anyone got a primer on how Trump got banned from Twitter, but the various Russian state accounts get a free pass? Are they considered out of scope for banning?
 
Eurotrash said:
I agree it will be a long game. Year 2049 it will be the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. They will want to have fully integrated Taiwan 10 years before that.
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I'm from Asia and actually a lot of us here think China doesn't need to invade Taiwan militarily. They can easily afford to play the long game. Look at what they are now doing, they are actively shutting Taiwan from the rest of the world while on the other hand, establishing businesses with Taiwan. Taiwanese are increasingly dependent on China.

Give it 1-2 generations later, Taiwan may just go for a referendum and 'rejoin' China without a single drop of blood shed.
 
TMDaines said:
Anyone got a primer on how Trump got banned from Twitter, but the various Russian state accounts get a free pass? Are they considered out of scope for banning?
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Trump was inciting riots and criminal activity. These Russian accounts should be closed down but I don’t think they’ve broken Twitter rules.
 
stoinz said:
I'm from Asia and actually a lot of us here think China doesn't need to invade Taiwan militarily. They can easily afford to play the long game. Look at what they are now doing, they are actively shutting Taiwan from the rest of the world while on the other hand, establishing businesses with Taiwan. Taiwanese are increasingly dependent on China.

Give it 1-2 generations later, Taiwan may just go for a referendum and 'rejoin' China without a single drop of blood shed.
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That will never happen. The Taiwanese know far too much about life inside the totalitarian state that is China.

If you haven't seen it yet I highly recommend a fairly recent Panorama report called "Are you scared yet?": https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000wft2
 
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TMDaines said:
When you look at the figures it is a relatively small amount compared to those going to the EU or Moldova. It may well be a good chunk of those are foreign people or also Russians who were living in Ukraine.

Another problem is that the forced migration of people in and out of Russian-controlled territories has been in their playbook for hundreds of years.
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It's not a small amount at all. I think that's the third highest amount of immigrants compared to other countries
 
GlastonSpur said:
How many will survive to make it to a beach? And then you have establish and defend beach-heads in order for more troops and equipment to land, all the while under attack from land and air. And then, with no easy means of resupply for food, medical supplies, ammunition, fuel (etc) you have push inland and try to conquer and occupy a 14,000 sq.miles island, against a well-equipped military 300,000-strong plus 3.6m reserves.

It's an incredibly difficult task, far, far harder that what Russia is facing is Ukraine.
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Sorry i mistyped, meant amphibious assault ship. The ones that do all those things you mention. China is building a bunch of them and about to start with an even bigger version.
 
There have been a number of recent podcasts about Putin, discussing how hard it would be to pry him out from within. Many believe it would require the Soloviki to take action in some way; specifically some combination of Patrushev, Bortnikov, Naryshkin, and Shoigu. Many of these guys are either old KGB cronies of Putin's dating back to the 70s and/or (in the case of Patrushev) corrupt St. Petersburg conspiracy theorists who are actually fueling Putin's imperialist views instead of pushing back against them. Putin has also managed to diversify away from the old KGB crowd incase they decide to move against him but putting an outside like Shoigu in charge of the military. This would make it very hard to plot a successful coup against him because not all of the necessary players would be sufficiently unified to keep it a secret for long enough to pull it off.

But circling back to sanctions, these are definitely the guys who need to be targeted (along with all family members remotely close to them) instead of the the usual caviar slurping Oligarchs with mega yachts who have little sway to influence Putin's behavior.
 
Revan said:
Taiwan should definitely try to develop nukes. Otherwise, within 2 decades, they are going to be invaded.

The problem though is that likely China will realize that and then try to invade immediately, while for US it would become hard to defend Taiwan in that case.

They are in a very hard position. I think their best long-term case is to be another Hong-Kong.
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China is about as likley to let Taiwan develop nukes as America is to let Mexico
 
GlastonSpur said:
That will never happen. The Taiwanese know far too much about life inside the totalitarian state that is China.

If you haven't seen it yet I highly recommend a fairly recent Panorama report called "Are you scared yet": https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000wft2
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Wow this is totally out of Black Mirror. Didn't know that, it is definitely scary as shit.

But as Im saying, as of now I would be scare too if I'm taiwanese to be annexed by China. Especially after seeing what happen to Hong Kong. But I'm saying 1-2 generations from now, when Taiwanese are totally dependent on China, and who's to say China will the totalitarian state that it is now 2 generations later.

Sorry to digress from topic. Somewhat back on topic, looking at China and now Russia, one communist and one ex communist country having such different fates is interesting. China has the world's second largest economy and despite being a communist country, doesn't complain or invade other countries just because it is surrounded by imagined /potential enemies. Russia despite its resources, constantly worry about enemies at their doorsteps. If it had developed its economy better, there is no need to worry about Nato or EU.
 
This thread is incredible. UK Russian Embassy is trying to claim the Mariupol hospital victims are fake.

 
BBC: "Half the population of Ukraine's capital Kyiv have fled since the invasion began, its mayor Vitali Klitschko says, as Russian forces move ever closer to the city.

Klitschko, the former heavyweight boxing champion, says: "Kyiv has been transformed into a fortress. Every street, every building, every checkpoint has been fortified."

Just under two million people, from the city's population of around three million, have left, he says.

Russian forces are believed to have rolled their armoured vehicles up to the north-eastern edge of the city today. Overnight, there was heavy fighting for control of the main road into the city."
 
TMDaines said:
This thread is incredible. UK Russian Embassy is trying to claim the Mariupol hospital victims are fake.

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It shouldn't come as a surprise as their strategy has always been to lie, deflect, and launch counter accusations. Very much in line with old school Soviet tactics, which should come as little surprise since many of these folks leading Russian military and intel institutions came up through the Soviet KGB ranks.
 
Raoul said:
It shouldn't come as a surprise as their strategy has always been to lie, deflect, and launch counter accusations. Very much in line with old school Soviet tactics, which should come as little surprise since many of these folks leading Russian military and intel institutions came up through the Soviet KGB ranks.
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They've now started doxxing the victim.
 
Raoul said:
It shouldn't come as a surprise as their strategy has always been to lie, deflect, and launch counter accusations. Very much in line with old school Soviet tactics, which should come as little surprise since many of these folks leading Russian military and intel institutions came up through the Soviet KGB ranks.
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Sama as Israel
 
Droid_Repairs said:
That's a bit cringe. The pics were taken by his official photographer, and no doubt slightly acted. There's a certain flavour of 'instagram virtue signal' here
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As someone who's heard a lot of Putin's rants (not personally though) I can confirm that this reaction is probably completely genuine. He can't even hang up.
 
harms said:
As someone who's heard a lot of Putin's rants (not personally though) I can confirm that this reaction is probably completely genuine. He can't even hang up.
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Even if the reaction was genuine the pictures are supposed to be from February. Their publication is out of context.
 
Raoul said:
There have been a number of recent podcasts about Putin, discussing how hard it would be to pry him out from within. Many believe it would require the Soloviki to take action in some way; specifically some combination of Patrushev, Bortnikov, Naryshkin, and Shoigu. Many of these guys are either old KGB cronies of Putin's dating back to the 70s and/or (in the case of Patrushev) corrupt St. Petersburg conspiracy theorists who are actually fueling Putin's imperialist views instead of pushing back against them. Putin has also managed to diversify away from the old KGB crowd incase they decide to move against him but putting an outside like Shoigu in charge of the military. This would make it very hard to plot a successful coup against him because not all of the necessary players would be sufficiently unified to keep it a secret for long enough to pull it off.

But circling back to sanctions, these are definitely the guys who need to be targeted (along with all family members remotely close to them) instead of the the usual caviar slurping Oligarchs with mega yachts who have little sway to influence Putin's behavior.
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Siloviki*. Soloviki is an interesting combination of that word and Solovki, famous GULAG camp — if you were Russian I'd call it a Freudian slip but it just seems like a curious coincidence.

But yeah, his whole hierarchical system is based on the principle of personal loyalty & most of the guys that have access to him have been close to him for many, many decades. Even someone like Hitler had an internal conflict between the party and the military with him seriously favouring the former (which lead to the most famous coup).
 
harms said:
Siloviki*. Soloviki is an interesting combination of that word and Solovki, famous GULAG camp — if you were Russian I'd call it a Freudian slip but it just seems like a curious coincidence.

But yeah, his whole hierarchical system is based on the principle of personal loyalty & most of the guys that have access to him have been close to him for many, many decades. Even someone like Hitler had an internal conflict between the party and the military with him seriously favouring the former (which lead to the most famous coup).
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Maybe he is. Maybe he was an operative in Cuba and decided to use a spanish sounding username instead of his actual russian name, Ruslan.
 
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