Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Spark said:
Question for any military hardware buffs. What are the US not sending? Seems like the Ukrainians are pretty tooled up and modernised. Other than aircraft, is there any specific “game changing” artillery system that the yanks/NATO have that is still blocked?
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Ukraine ain't getting the Patriot missile system.
 
Spark said:
Question for any military hardware buffs. What are the US not sending? Seems like the Ukrainians are pretty tooled up and modernised. Other than aircraft, is there any specific “game changing” artillery system that the yanks/NATO have that is still blocked?
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The issue is quantity rather than quality at this stage. Russia has a lot of scrap metal with which it can still pound their positions and cities to the ground and Ukraine can’t respond as they don’t have enough artillery.
 
Spark said:
Question for any military hardware buffs. What are the US not sending? Seems like the Ukrainians are pretty tooled up and modernised. Other than aircraft, is there any specific “game changing” artillery system that the yanks/NATO have that is still blocked?
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Agreed with @VorZakone about the Patriot system.

I’d be surprised to see them getting any of our Stryker / Bradley / Abrams as well.
 
Spark said:
Question for any military hardware buffs. What are the US not sending? Seems like the Ukrainians are pretty tooled up and modernised. Other than aircraft, is there any specific “game changing” artillery system that the yanks/NATO have that is still blocked?
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For me personally I'd have to say any of the CIWS stuff that we've not been hearing about from either side. Phalanx and that sort of thing - it's absolutely unbelievable what it can do. It's something that I'm sort of surprised we've not been sending to the Ukrainians as it's more of a defensive measure anyway, as well as being obsolete and superceded by a lot better modern stuff (micro missile systems I believe are the current zeitgeist, but I've not taken much interest for a while). I couldn't see Russia getting angry at us sending purely defensive systems, but they take time and training that we don't have right now I guess.
 
Carolina Red said:

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The logic of the Kherson counter offensive (beyond reclaiming Kherson) is apparently to distract Russian advances in the east. Looks like its working in the south, but at the expense of a few towns in the east.
 
Raoul said:
The logic of the Kherson counter offensive (beyond reclaiming Kherson) is apparently to distract Russian advances in the east. Looks like its working in the south, but at the expense of a few towns in the east.
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The old adage of “defending everything means defending nothing” comes to mind.
 
Raoul said:
The logic of the Kherson counter offensive (beyond reclaiming Kherson) is apparently to distract Russian advances in the east. Looks like its working in the south, but at the expense of a few towns in the east.
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I read that Kherson is the only land west of the Dnipro that Russia controls, and that it was more strategically important than Severodonetsk, such that they were willing to "trade" them. They suggested Putin cared more about the headlines than the tactics.

Edit: from the ISW
"Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains. Continuing successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson indicate that Ukraine’s commanders recognize these realities and are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities that Putin’s decisions have created.

The Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. Kyiv could have committed more reserves and resources to the defense of Severodonetsk, and its failure to do so has drawn criticism.[1] Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.[2] Both the decision to avoid committing more resources to saving Severodonetsk and the decision to withdraw from it were strategically sound, however painful. Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war or the conditions for the renewal of war."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31
 
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VorZakone said:
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God the Americans are driving me crazy! The entire point of a friggin nuclear deterrent is that the other side believe you might actually use it if provoked too far. If you're going to tell them in advance that you won't respond to a nuclear strike on an ally in kind, then you've just made it far more likely that they'll actually do it.

Also, how hard is the concept of 'Putin only recognizes strength' to grasp, really? Everyone is so busy tripping over their own asses trying to ensure they don't 'escalate' while he gets to do literally whatever the feck he wants. Genocide, mass torture, child rape, mass kidnap, wiping entire cities from the map, sure no problem at all, but hey we better not send him planes or else he'll get mad. We live in a truly contemptible age.
 
Kentonio said:
God the Americans are driving me crazy! The entire point of a friggin nuclear deterrent is that the other side believe you might actually use it if provoked too far. If you're going to tell them in advance that you won't respond to a nuclear strike on an ally in kind, then you've just made it far more likely that they'll actually do it.

Also, how hard is the concept of 'Putin only recognizes strength' to grasp, really? Everyone is so busy tripping over their own asses trying to ensure they don't 'escalate' while he gets to do literally whatever the feck he wants. Genocide, mass torture, child rape, mass kidnap, wiping entire cities from the map, sure no problem at all, but hey we better not send him planes or else he'll get mad. We live in a truly contemptible age.
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Would they even need nukes to wipe out Russian capability? Nuke for a nuke just escalates to end of the world scenaro's, so I imagine they'd resist that if all possible.

If Putin hypothetically detonates a nuke in Ukraine, its immediately world war. As in the entire world against an already weak Russia. Not just US/NATO, Japan, SK, Aus, Israel, etc. China/India would probably even step in. Anything to avoid seeing nukes just getting lobbed back and forth, they would have to do anything in their power to avoid US retaliating with a nuke, cos y'know... end of the world and stuff. There's also the internal factors in Russia.

I feel like they are just stating the obvious here.
 
Kentonio said:
God the Americans are driving me crazy! The entire point of a friggin nuclear deterrent is that the other side believe you might actually use it if provoked too far. If you're going to tell them in advance that you won't respond to a nuclear strike on an ally in kind, then you've just made it far more likely that they'll actually do it.

Also, how hard is the concept of 'Putin only recognizes strength' to grasp, really? Everyone is so busy tripping over their own asses trying to ensure they don't 'escalate' while he gets to do literally whatever the feck he wants. Genocide, mass torture, child rape, mass kidnap, wiping entire cities from the map, sure no problem at all, but hey we better not send him planes or else he'll get mad. We live in a truly contemptible age.
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This! Exactly this! I don't understand why Biden is so soft. I hated Reagan, but I wish we had someone like that vs Putin. And actually if we had Reagan, probably Putin wouldn't dare invade Ukraine in the first place. Unfortunately Biden gives the impression of a pacifist, and Putin does not respect pacifists.
 
Simbo said:
Would they even need nukes to wipe out Russian capability? Nuke for a nuke just escalates to end of the world scenaro's, so I imagine they'd resist that if all possible.

If Putin hypothetically detonates a nuke in Ukraine, its immediately world war. As in the entire world against an already weak Russia. Not just US/NATO, Japan, SK, Aus, Israel, etc. China/India would probably even step in. Anything to avoid seeing nukes just getting lobbed back and forth, they would have to do anything in their power to avoid US retaliating with a nuke, cos y'know... end of the world and stuff. There's also the internal factors in Russia.

I feel like they are just stating the obvious here.
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They wouldn't respond with a nuke and they shouldn't respond with a nuke. But Putin shouldn't be sure of that, it should remain a question mark in his mind and in the minds of the Russian leadership and military who would actually have to agree to carry out his order to launch it. Now its a known element, they know they can launch without any risk of immediate nuclear retaliation. That's dangerous. This is the kind of crap that is more likely to sleepwalk us into a nuclear exchange in the long term.

Putin is being given leeway that he shouldn't be given and treated like an irrational actor when his behaviour is perfectly rational when seen through the right mindset. Hitler pulled exactly the same crap in the 30's, ignoring conventions and recognized rules of order and law, because he knew his enemies would do whatever they could to prevent a full scale conflict. Which of course then ensured a full scale conflict was inevitable, because there's always a red line somewhere and when dictators keep winning they lose perspective of where the red line really is.
 
Beans said:
I read that Kherson is the only land west of the Dnipro that Russia controls, and that it was more strategically important than Severodonetsk, such that they were willing to "trade" them. They suggested Putin cared more about the headlines than the tactics.

Edit: from the ISW
"Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains. Continuing successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson indicate that Ukraine’s commanders recognize these realities and are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities that Putin’s decisions have created.

The Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. Kyiv could have committed more reserves and resources to the defense of Severodonetsk, and its failure to do so has drawn criticism.[1] Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.[2] Both the decision to avoid committing more resources to saving Severodonetsk and the decision to withdraw from it were strategically sound, however painful. Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war or the conditions for the renewal of war."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31
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Its good to see the Ukrainians are fighting strategically and tactically - applying forces to repel Russian advances, then after inflicting losses, removing them so they can fight another day elsewhere. If the Russians tried the same, they would have probably cut their losses in half over the past 90 days.
 
Beans said:
I read that Kherson is the only land west of the Dnipro that Russia controls, and that it was more strategically important than Severodonetsk, such that they were willing to "trade" them. They suggested Putin cared more about the headlines than the tactics.

Edit: from the ISW
"Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains. Continuing successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson indicate that Ukraine’s commanders recognize these realities and are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities that Putin’s decisions have created.

The Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. Kyiv could have committed more reserves and resources to the defense of Severodonetsk, and its failure to do so has drawn criticism.[1] Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.[2] Both the decision to avoid committing more resources to saving Severodonetsk and the decision to withdraw from it were strategically sound, however painful. Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war or the conditions for the renewal of war."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31
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Trying to occupy a town with symbolic meaning. Which war and dictator this reminds me of.
 
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sooner or later, a deal must be made

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I'm fairly ignorant on the issue of sanctions so would welcome any thoughts.

For me if a deal is struck (without it being a Ukrainian idea) then surely that is a massive victory for Putin and zero deterrence for his next imperial adventure?
 
Frosty said:
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sooner or later, a deal must be made

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I'm fairly ignorant on the issue of sanctions so would welcome any thoughts.

For me if a deal is struck (without it being a Ukrainian idea) then surely that is a massive victory for Putin and zero deterrence for his next imperial adventure?
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Isn't that a little simplistic? First, rising costs aren't just due to the war, inflation was happening already due to the pandemic supply chain issue and wasn't anyway expected to ease off very quickly.

Second, this seems rather short-term. Long-term, Russia can't keep cancelling out the effects of the sanctions (like the rate of the ruble), plus they are losing a lot of their oil and gas customers, which they won't all be able to replace at short notice.

So my interpretation for a while has been that, if NATO/EU are serious about the sanctions and their effect on Russia (which I am sure the US are, if simply from an adverserial point of view: finally bringing Russia to its knees), they just have to make sure Russia won't win in Ukraine (and stalling might be even better than defeat). Eventually, that will cripple the Russian economy, while NATO/EU countries will eventually have alternative sources for everything they're getting from Russia.
 
Frosty said:
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sooner or later, a deal must be made

----

I'm fairly ignorant on the issue of sanctions so would welcome any thoughts.

For me if a deal is struck (without it being a Ukrainian idea) then surely that is a massive victory for Putin and zero deterrence for his next imperial adventure?
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Without the invasion in february there would still be a significant inflation rise in the West. As far as I understand, war is a notable factor, but not even close to being the biggest.
Secondly, using account surplus as a tool of measuring whether sanctions are effective is just bizzare. I have no idea how did he come up with that.
 
Lemoor said:
Without the invasion in february there would still be a significant inflation rise in the West. As far as I understand, war is a notable factor, but not even close to being the biggest.
Secondly, using account surplus as a tool of measuring whether sanctions are effective is just bizzare. I have no idea how did he come up with that.
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Because that supports the pre written conclusion.
 
MoskvaRed said:
Pure fascism with added cult of personality.
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How morally bankrupt you have to be to force this on kids, these nursery workers are genuinely the lowest of the low for accepting/showing similar initiatives. Soviet legacy these people with slave mentality that would sell their mothers for some preferential treatment. Absolutely zero self-respect.
 
Rajma said:
How morally bankrupt you have to be to force this on kids, these nursery workers are genuinely the lowest of the low for accepting/showing similar initiatives. Soviet legacy these people with slave mentality that would sell their mothers for some preferential treatment. Absolutely zero self-respect.
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It’s despicable, and I’ve heard other nauseating tales of indoctrination concerning my wife’s 7 year-old goddaughter at school just outside Moscow. The mindset is even pre-Soviet I’d argue - it’s like the krepostnoye pravo never really ended. Still believing in the Good Tsar.
 
Rajma said:
How morally bankrupt you have to be to force this on kids, these nursery workers are genuinely the lowest of the low for accepting/showing similar initiatives. Soviet legacy these people with slave mentality that would sell their mothers for some preferential treatment. Absolutely zero self-respect.
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More stupid than morally bankrupt. They grew up in a society where supporting something more than yourself as a kid was not even normal, it was a privilege. And they do believe, the majority of them, at least, that they’re doing it for the right cause — to stop fascism (and they don’t get the cruel irony).

Although that’s if we’re talking about teachers etc., Putin & his guys know full well what they’re doing, of course.
 
MoskvaRed said:
It’s despicable, and I’ve heard other nauseating tales of indoctrination concerning my wife’s 7 year-old goddaughter at school just outside Moscow. The mindset is even pre-Soviet I’d argue - it’s like the krepostnoye pravo never really ended. Still believing in the Good Tsar.
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I don’t think it’s a cult like, they quickly gonna <<переобуться>> once the regime falls. It’s all about personal gain as they try to showcase themselves in the eyes of their superiors. As you rightly said totally despicable human beings with no morals.
 
harms said:
More stupid than morally bankrupt. They grew up in a society where supporting something more than yourself as a kid was not even normal, it was a privilege. And they do believe, the majority of them, at least, that they’re doing it for the right cause — to stop fascism (and they don’t get the cruel irony).

Although that’s if we’re talking about teachers etc., Putin & his guys know full well what they’re doing, of course.
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I’m mostly disappointed by those who as you say are doing everything whilst knowing full well what’s going on of which there are plenty:



This is purely out self-serving interest what these people are doing, just to be noticed by ruling party authorities.
 
These are very same people that are happy to facilitate an participate in the election rigging for a bag of groceries.
 
Rajma said:
I’m mostly disappointed by those who as you say are doing everything whilst knowing full well what’s going on of which there are plenty:



This is purely out self-serving interest what these people are doing, just to be noticed by ruling party authorities.
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But at least:
 
Rajma said:
I’m mostly disappointed by those who as you say are doing everything whilst knowing full well what’s going on of which there are plenty:



This is purely out self-serving interest what these people are doing, just to be noticed by ruling party authorities.
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Yeah, when we talk about Universities, especially those like MSU & HSE, it’s hard to believe that the majority of their administration & staff actually believe what’s being said.
 
frostbite said:
This! Exactly this! I don't understand why Biden is so soft. I hated Reagan, but I wish we had someone like that vs Putin. And actually if we had Reagan, probably Putin wouldn't dare invade Ukraine in the first place. Unfortunately Biden gives the impression of a pacifist, and Putin does not respect pacifists.
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Gotta say I have to agree with that assessment. Against this current version of Putin, the United States needs to begin using harsher language against the Kremlin. It would also prepare for future showdowns against China and their wolf warrior diplomats down the road (slight off-topic). To be very honest with you, I often believe the US should have their own designated equivalents to the Chinese wolf warriors just to keep pounding on geopolitical adversaries (the ones who will always have an confrontational stance with the West regardless). That would also make easy domestic political points scored at home too.

Sounds to me that too many people in Washington have been drinking too much of the same shit that Henry Kissinger has done for too long. No wonder why people have dismissed Kissinger straight away when he came out with his recent comments the other day. There is a time to be a pacifist, but now is not the time to make it obvious in this poker game.
 
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