SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[golden_blunder]

Well lost all sense of taste this morning, went for a test which fecking sucks. Was asked to be part of some survey where they wanted 2 extra, less intrusive tests to see if they were a viable alternative.

Good luck lad

 

[redshaw]

But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.

Have you guys looked at Belgium?

I believe they shut the schools by extending the holiday, the cases per day have come crashing down and they have just opened the schools so might be interesting to see if they rise sharply soon again.

 

[acnumber9]

We have a different understanding of the objective, is all. Steady cases at this level are not preferable but tolerable. The restrictions came in when cases were growing exponentially, that's what is intolerable over a prolonged period of time. They also want to bring cases down to the lowest possible levels so when restrictions are lifted, the exponential growth starts from a level that we can keep on top of, and that when we get sight of the growth, it hasn't already reached a level where hospitals are worried. We aren't pursuing a strategy of eradication so if we were to keep cases consistently steady, at this lower level, it would be acceptable to the majority. Which is why they've taken the decision to re-open the economy slowly, while re-opening schools. They are looking at the same numbers you are, just with more visibility. They don't like those numbers but they are manageable.

If you agree that we can now keep cases at a steady level while schools are open, and that by default leaving them open will not lead to another explosion of cases, then you weren't arguing against a point I was making, or Pogue was making, or anyone else you called an idiot. You just had a different perspective on what is an acceptable trade-off. Different to individuals on here, and different to the government. That's all fair enough but there's a big gap between having a different opinion, and thinking people are idiots for not sharing your opinion. Your view on the importance of schools is different from other people's, so you don't see any reason to give it special preferences. Many people do. Here's one example of a country following the opposite strategy, and finding that closing the schools comes with all kinds of downsides while the positive impact on transmission reduction is barely noticeable.

The negative social impacts are potentially very severe. That's the judgment of the NI scientific advisers too, which is why when they weigh up the impact on the R rate vs. the wider impact, they think it's worth keeping schools open. They can manage without doing that. It's not a controversial opinion, nor denying the data, to say that is the case. It is just a different perspective.

I was happy to leave the debate where it was before you dredged it up again to say how right you are. The facts are that the numbers we are seeing currently are obscenely high with almost everything else being restricted. That’s because the price we have to pay to have schools open is to shut everything else and still watch thousands of people die.

The numbers aren’t proving my original point wrong. Cases exploded after schools opened, started reducing when they were closed and they’ve plateaued now they’re open again. The problem is still so rife that they’re saying we need more restrictions. The problem being the only things left are schools and non essential retail. Non essential retail is estimated to have a sixth of the impact of schools.

I have never argued against the social reasons for schools being open so I don’t know why you bring it up like I did. The question is whether the impact it clearly causes is worth it and whether people should have a say in the matter.

 

[acnumber9]

Have you guys looked at Belgium?

I believe they shut the schools by extending the holiday, the cases per day have come crashing down and they have just opened the schools so might be interesting to see if they rise sharply soon again.

Brwned brought Belgium up when he thought it proved his point correct. He ignored it when I pointed out the remarkable increase after schools opened.

Belgium are actually taking a very sensible approach with the re-opening of schools with distance learning for half of the older kids. We’re refusing to even consider things like that. Which is the main point of my frustration with the refusal to acknowledge we should be doing similar.

 

[Brwned]

I was happy to leave the debate where it was before you dredged it up again to say how right you are. The facts are that the numbers we are seeing currently are obscenely high with almost everything else being restricted. That’s because the price we have to pay to have schools open is to shut everything else and still watch thousands of people die.

The numbers aren’t proving my original point wrong. Cases exploded after schools opened, started reducing when they were closed and they’ve plateaued now they’re open again. The problem is still so rife that they’re saying we need more restrictions. The problem being the only things left are schools and non essential retail. Non essential retail is estimated to have a sixth of the impact of schools.

I have never argued against the social reasons for schools being open so I don’t know why you bring it up like I did. The question is whether the impact it clearly causes is worth it and whether people should have a say in the matter.

I don't think I am right, I think there is room for both perspectives with different sets of priorities. And that holding a different view on the subject does not make the other person an idiot. What I argued against was your certainty on the subject, in the face of inconclusive data at best, and your active rejection of other views. For someone that happily went around pointing out how stupid it was to believe anything other than what you believe, you seem oddly sensitive to the idea of someone saying 'maybe there is more to the story than your opinion'. Especially given the growth trajectory in NI, the UK more broadly and Ireland, never mind the other countries. I'll admit, I'm surprised that perceptions haven't changed at all to allow for a range of views, despite the data looking very different. No point dragging that one out.

 

[Stactix]

Been quite a few cases at the schools I work at, mix of pupils/staff. My issue now is that unless I'm in the vicinity and overhearing people talk about whose isolating, I have no idea if I may of been in contact with a positive case. (Techie, that works at 2 schools during the lockdown 4 normally.. go around all the classes on plenty of devices yadayada)

Someone has symptoms, they isolate or the pupil doesn't come to school. School is usually notified at this point, they get a test and once the result comes in further action is taken. Obviously up until now it's taking a few days for that result to arrive.
If there is a positive test then contacts and the class/year are sent home(Baffles me that sometimes only the class and not the year are sent home), always feel bad for the office when they've got to call 60 parents to pick up their kids.

Following this, to the best of my knowledge the kids being sent home aren't expected to get a test. So the vast majority aren't being tested, so sometimes 60 kids that have been in contact with a positive staff member aren't being tested. Could easily be 10-15 of them that have it but no symptoms. Staff even without symptoms are required to get tested if they're isolating but even if test negative some are still required to stay off while others like teachers are required to come back.

The business side brought up a wonderful idea the other day, if a pupil tests positive use seating plans to only send the kids in the near vicinity home. Seem to have forgotten that kids aren't chained to their fecking chairs all day.

 

[cyberman]

Good luck lad

Good man. Id rather the cough than lack of taste. It really is a balls

 

[golden_blunder]

Good man. Id rather the cough than lack of taste. It really is a balls

I’d find that hard, food is my last vice left so if I couldn’t taste it, life would be quite depressing

 

[Tibs]

Boooom - another existing drug showing to help with Covid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55002339

 

[UnofficialDevil]

Boooom - another existing drug showing to help with Covid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55002339

please, please, please, please

 

[acnumber9]

I don't think I am right, I think there is room for both perspectives with different sets of priorities. And that holding a different view on the subject does not make the other person an idiot. What I argued against was your certainty on the subject, in the face of inconclusive data at best, and your active rejection of other views. For someone that happily went around pointing out how stupid it was to believe anything other than what you believe, you seem oddly sensitive to the idea of someone saying 'maybe there is more to the story than your opinion'. Especially given the growth trajectory in NI, the UK more broadly and Ireland, never mind the other countries. I'll admit, I'm surprised that perceptions haven't changed at all to allow for a range of views, despite the data looking very different. No point dragging that one out.

Is that what the fixation is about? Me supposedly calling you and Pogue idiots? When did that even happen? Did you really need to bring up a dead argument because of that? To feel superior?

I’m happy for people to point to other theories and back them up. I’m not happy for people to say I’m wrong, tell me to research your argument for myself, ignore when it’s pointed out that the numbers don’t support your theory and bring up arguments that were long put in the past just to try and prove a point you can’t even prove.

 

[calodo2003]

People did that already, and our Governments seemingly wasted that time by not getting the proper systems in place.

It’s pretty obvious (& has been obvious) that governments are pretty powerless against this virus, especially when selfishness & shortsightedness exists in people they oversee. To think that governments are the villains here is a bit rich.

 

[Brwned]

Is that what the fixation is about? Me supposedly calling you and Pogue idiots? When did that even happen? Did you really need to bring up a dead argument because of that? To feel superior?

I’m happy for people to point to other theories and back them up. I’m not happy for people to say I’m wrong, tell me to research your argument for myself, ignore when it’s pointed out that the numbers don’t support your theory and bring up arguments that were long put in the past just to try and prove a point you can’t even prove.

I wanted to see if you had a different opinion on the subject, given a reasonable time had passed to see the effects of the new policy and the broader change in case patterns, and the last place we left the discussion was 'let's see what happens, hope it's better than I expect'.

I think one of the few worthwhile reasons to be on a discussion forum is to share views with someone with a different perspective, on a subject you've given a bit of thought to. It's not about winning an argument or feeling superior. I don't think anyone could win an argument on a complex subject with multiple points of entry. It's just an opportunity for discussion to see things from a different perspective. I don't really understand why it's ever been framed as some kind of intellectual jousting where the objective was to demonstrate who was the "winner", or who was the smart one taking the only sensible position on the subject.

If someone asked me had my opinion developed on subject x given new evidence, my first instinct wouldn't be to interpret that as a personal attack, it seems a relatively normal thing to do. Clearly I misjudged.

 

[acnumber9]

It’s pretty obvious (& has been obvious) that governments are pretty powerless against this virus, especially when selfishness & shortsightedness exists in people they oversee. To think that governments are the villains here is a bit rich.

People are cnuts. Government are bigger cnuts. There’s a difference between powerless and making things worse.

 

[acnumber9]

I wanted to see if you had a different opinion on the subject, given a reasonable time had passed to see the effects of the new policy and the broader change in case patterns, and the last place we left the discussion was 'let's see what happens, hope it's better than I expect'.

I think one of the few worthwhile reasons to be on a discussion forum is to share views with someone with a different perspective, on a subject you've given a bit of thought to. It's not about winning an argument or feeling superior. I don't think anyone could win an argument on a complex subject with multiple points of entry. It's just an opportunity for discussion to see things from a different perspective. I don't really understand why it's ever been framed as some kind of intellectual jousting where the objective was to demonstrate who was the "winner", or who was the smart one taking the only sensible position on the subject.

If someone asked me had my opinion developed on subject x given new evidence, my first instinct wouldn't be to interpret that as a personal attack, it seems a relatively normal thing to do. Clearly I misjudged.

The timing was good then. Northern Ireland has just announced they need harsher restrictions because those in place haven’t been effective enough. Guess what the only thing not affected is?

Your condescension aside, the new evidence doesn’t really show schools aren’t a big problem. I would argue they show they clearly still are. When you were presented with the fact you were wrong on Belgium’s numbers your response was not that of a mathematical equation, it was to ignore it and move on. So you can climb back off your high horse.

 

[sullydnl]

 

[calodo2003]

People are cnuts. Government are bigger cnuts. There’s a difference between powerless and making things worse.

Not saying that blame isn’t to be apportioned in both camps, but absolving the ‘people’ part of this is prime gaslighting.

 

[acnumber9]

Not saying that blame isn’t to be apportioned in both camps, but absolving the ‘people’ part of this is prime gaslighting.

And your apportionment went too far the other way.

 

[calodo2003]

And your apportionment went too far the other way.

Well, when little things like masks aren’t worn, restaurants & bars / pubs, etc. attended, superficial, arbitrary lifestyles not amended during a pandemic, it’s a little trite to foist more blame than necessary on governments. A little more altruism by the populace in our countries would have been far more beneficial than the feeling of ‘living your best life’ in recent months.

 

[Brwned]

The timing was good then. Northern Ireland has just announced they need harsher restrictions because those in place haven’t been effective enough. Guess what the only thing not affected is?

Your condescension aside, the new evidence doesn’t really show schools aren’t a big problem. I would argue they show they clearly still are. When you were presented with the fact you were wrong on Belgium’s numbers your response was not that of a mathematical equation, it was to ignore it and move on. So you can climb back off your high horse.

I didn't ignore the point about Belgium, any more than you ignored the point about Sweden, South Africa, Japan, Ireland, various states in the US. I don't think that was ignoring them so much as you focusing on the part of the argument you were interested in. Your goal was to find points where you could tell me I was wrong. I wasn't trying to tell you that you were wrong. I am still not saying that. I'm just saying the data doesn't fit that singular description, so that explanation on its own cannot be sufficient. If additional context is layered on top it may be true, in certain circumstances. And as new evidence comes in, new views are to be expected.

I was providing examples of a wide range of countries that experienced different case trajectories - some were going up at that point, some were going down at that point, some had opened their schools recently, some had opened them a long time ago - to show that there was no simple correlation between schools opening and cases exploding. Cases can go up dramatically when schools are closed. Cases can go down dramatically when schools are closed. Cases can go up a long time after schools open. Cases can go down the moment when schools open. Picking out one of those cases - originally NI - and saying "this is how it works" ignores the broader trend. Likewise doing the opposite - in this case Belgium - ignores the broader point.

However if what really matters here is that simple point, I'm happy to say I was wrong about Belgium. Well, not happy, things are shit there. But I'm happy for you to take that as an argument won. And all of the others. For me, it's a loss that a discussion from different perspectives turned into whatever this was.

 

[acnumber9]

Well, when little things like masks aren’t worn, restaurants & bars / pubs, etc. attended, superficial, arbitrary lifestyles not amended during a pandemic, it’s a little trite to foist more blame than necessary on governments. A little more altruism by the populace in our countries would have been far more beneficial than the feeling of ‘living your best life’ in recent months.

The vast majority of people are wearing masks. On the subject of maths though do you recall the Government telling us there was no evidence they made any difference? Very few have lived their ‘best life’.

 

[cyberman]

The Assembly really fecking this up. Instead of 4 weeks and done, the DUP stretches it out to the point half measures arent working and they lockdown anyway and its twice as long. Why they couldn't shut everything down for the school halloween break is beyond me.

 

[acnumber9]

I didn't ignore the point about Belgium, any more than you ignored the point about Sweden, South Africa, Japan, Ireland, various states in the US. I don't think that was ignoring them so much as you focusing on the part of the argument you were interested in. Your goal was to find points where you could tell me I was wrong. I wasn't trying to tell you that you were wrong. I am still not saying that. I'm just saying the data doesn't fit that singular description, so that explanation on its own cannot be sufficient. If additional context is layered on top it may be true, in certain circumstances. And as new evidence comes in, new views are to be expected.

I was providing examples of a wide range of countries that experienced different case trajectories - some were going up at that point, some were going down at that point, some had opened their schools recently, some had opened them a long time ago - to show that there was no simple correlation between schools opening and cases exploding. Cases can go up dramatically when schools are closed. Cases can go down dramatically when schools are closed. Cases can go up a long time after schools open. Cases can go down the moment when schools open. Picking out one of those cases - originally NI - and saying "this is how it works" ignores the broader trend. Likewise doing the opposite - in this case Belgium - ignores the broader point.

However if what really matters here is that simple point, I'm happy to say I was wrong about Belgium. Well, not happy, things are shit there. But I'm happy for you to take that as an argument won. And all of the others. For me, it's a loss that a discussion from different perspectives turned into whatever this was.

I never said cases can’t go up with schools closed. I said that an explosion of cases coinciding with schools opening could not be a coincidence. Other countries having low numbers of schools open is irrelevant if the circumstances aren’t broadly similar. Examples you used were countries were schools were doing reduced class sizes etc. We aren’t doing any of that.

It’s become argumentative because it’s an emotive subject and I’m sick and tired of everything having to suffer but school closures or even reduction of class sizes is completely off the table. My partner, who is expecting our first child in March, is now earning 80% of the pittance she was already earning before she’s due to go on the pittance of statutory maternity pay because she has already had to change job once in this pandemic. That would all be fine if it was accomplishing what it needs to but I firmly believe we’re fighting this with one arm tied behind our back and the scientists and Government know it and won’t do anything about it because it’s bad for them politically.

You may be saying that you were just keen on a debate and were genuinely interested in my opinion but your posts did not come across in that way. For what it’s worth, if I said or intimated you or Pogue were idiots then I apologise. It’s a fraught situation and emotions run high.

 

[acnumber9]

The Assembly really fecking this up. Instead of 4 weeks and done, the DUP stretches it out to the point half measures arent working and they lockdown anyway and its twice as long. Why they couldn't shut everything down for the school halloween break is beyond me.

The only thing not closed during that time that will be closed now was non essential retail and church services. Non essential retail is a spit in the ocean.

 

[calodo2003]

The vast majority of people are wearing masks. On the subject of maths though do you recall the Government telling us there was no evidence they made any difference? Very few have lived their ‘best life’.

Then y’all are doing far better overall with altruism than large swaths are doing in my country.

You want to rightly criticize our respective governments, yet you believed them when medical devices were said to make little difference? That’s shockingly poor common sense.

Again, people themselves have a hand in how poorly the world has handled this virus. It may become clear to the world that truly draconian measures may need to be enacted to limit the viral spread & to wrest some control of the healthcare infrastructure back from theeffects of the virus.

If we unfortunately get there, both the populations & governments will be to blame. Apportioning exact percentages on either v the other would be semantics as both contributed to it. In my country, it’s probably more to do with personal choice than government ineptitude, even, maybe, as multiple states here have only superficial mandates in place to stop any spread. It’s more the business community that has any state or nationwide mandates in place. This is poor governance, without a doubt, but tens of millions of my fellow citizens are acting selfishly & not doing anything altruistic to help the situation.

 

[entropy]

Well, when little things like masks aren’t worn, restaurants & bars / pubs, etc. attended, superficial, arbitrary lifestyles not amended during a pandemic, it’s a little trite to foist more blame than necessary on governments. A little more altruism by the populace in our countries would have been far more beneficial than the feeling of ‘living your best life’ in recent months.

This is ignorant on so many levels. People have to go to work because govts refuse to help them.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I never said cases can’t go up with schools closed. I said that an explosion of cases coinciding with schools opening could not be a coincidence. Other countries having low numbers of schools open is irrelevant if the circumstances aren’t broadly similar. Examples you used were countries were schools were doing reduced class sizes etc. We aren’t doing any of that.

It’s become argumentative because it’s an emotive subject and I’m sick and tired of everything having to suffer but school closures or even reduction of class sizes is completely off the table. My partner, who is expecting our first child in March, is now earning 80% of the pittance she was already earning before she’s due to go on the pittance of statutory maternity pay because she has already had to change job once in this pandemic. That would all be fine if it was accomplishing what it needs to but I firmly believe we’re fighting this with one arm tied behind our back and the scientists and Government know it and won’t do anything about it because it’s bad for them politically.

You may be saying that you were just keen on a debate and were genuinely interested in my opinion but your posts did not come across in that way. For what it’s worth, if I said or intimated you or Pogue were idiots then I apologise. It’s a fraught situation and emotions run high.

For the record, you definitely didn’t call me an idiot. We’ve had some ding dong rows in the past but have been extremely civilised to each other for ages. Well done us! Sorry to hear you’re having a rough time of it. This whole thing is such a shite state of affairs.

On the schools thing, I think I’m in too biased to discuss sensibly but I would be absolutely amazed if keeping secondary schools open doesn’t inflate cases numbers. Primary schools contribution is a bit harder to interpret. They do seem to be relatively covid resistant but it’s possible that thus is mainly because so few of them get symptomatic enough to get tested. Serological surveys would be a huge help but the ethics of sticking needles in kids is tricky. We’ll get better data as these salivary tests get better and better.

 

[calodo2003]

This is ignorant on so many levels. People have to go to work because govts refuse to help them.

Not saying going to work, I’m bringing up the subjective parts of our lives to which people are adhering that force many of us to have to go to work.

We absolutely need more economic assistance from the federal government. But, seeing how & where the virus has spread recently & the potential effects as to why, it’s clear that many in this country don’t care about the negative effects their lifestyle might still be causing yet still persist in it. When we approach such systemwide issues as the healthcare system may be facing right now (& will in the future), it a fallacy to blame it completely on the government & not apportion any blame on the populace.

Goes back to my original statement that both governments & the populace are to blame. To leave the populace of blame out isn’t reflective of the situation as we currently see it.

 

[acnumber9]

For the record, you definitely didn’t call me an idiot. We’ve had some ding dong rows in the past but have been extremely civilised to each other for ages. Well done us! Sorry to hear you’re having a rough time of it. This whole thing is such a shite state of affairs.

On the schools thing, I think I’m in too biased to discuss sensibly but I would be absolutely amazed if keeping secondary schools open doesn’t inflate cases numbers. Primary schools contribution is a bit harder to interpret. They do seem to be relatively covid resistant but it’s possible that thus is mainly because so few of them get symptomatic enough to get tested. Serological surveys would be a huge help but the ethics of sticking needles in kids is tricky. We’ll get better data as these salivary tests get better and better.

I know, I’ve matured a little. But only a little. For what it’s worth I do have greater respect for your opinion than many on here. And we all have our biases.

I’m not even having that tough a time of it really, certainly nowhere near what many are. I’m in the fortunate position of having a very secure job so we’ll be ok. But, those issues coupled with general weariness of the whole thing has got to me more and more lately.

 

[BD]

Perhaps an unanswerable question at the moment, but where are people catching covid? I gather that the rate of transmission in grocery shops is very very low? And the chances of getting it while meeting people outdoors (e.g for a walk) is low too? So where is all this transmission happening?

I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.

 

[entropy]

Not saying going to work, I’m bringing up the subjective parts of our lives to which people are adhering that force many of us to have to go to work.

We absolutely need more economic assistance from the federal government. But, seeing how & where the virus has spread recently & the potential effects as to why, it’s clear that many in this country don’t care about the negative effects their lifestyle might still be causing yet still persist in it. When we approach such systemwide issues as the healthcare system may be facing right now (& will in the future), it a fallacy to blame it completely on the government & not apportion any blame on the populace.

Goes back to my original statement that both governments & the populace are to blame. To leave the populace of blame out isn’t reflective of the situation as we currently see it.

What exactly do you achieve by blaming individuals?

 

[mitChley]

Perhaps an unanswerable question at the moment, but where are people catching covid? I gather that the rate of transmission in grocery shops is very very low? And the chances of getting it while meeting people outdoors (e.g for a walk) is low too? So where is all this transmission happening?

I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.

The figures are out there but its work and education.

 

[Duafc]

Perhaps an unanswerable question at the moment, but where are people catching covid? I gather that the rate of transmission in grocery shops is very very low? And the chances of getting it while meeting people outdoors (e.g for a walk) is low too? So where is all this transmission happening?

I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.

I think it’s very flawed for what it’s worth but Public Health England’s recent Data on where people had been prior to testing positive - which is no real indication of where they caught it...;

Proportion of all common locations reported in PHE data:

• Supermarket - 18.3%
• Secondary school - 12.7%
• Primary school - 10.1%
• Hospital - 3.6%
• Care home - 2.8%
• College - 2.4%
• Warehouse - 2.2%
• Nursery preschool - 1.8%
• Pub or bar - 1.6%
• Hospitality - 1.5%
• University - 1.4%
• Manufacture engineering - 1.4%
• Household fewer than five - 1.2%
• General practice - 1.1%
• Gym - 1.1%
• Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%

 

[Brwned]

I never said cases can’t go up with schools closed. I said that an explosion of cases coinciding with schools opening could not be a coincidence. Other countries having low numbers of schools open is irrelevant if the circumstances aren’t broadly similar. Examples you used were countries were schools were doing reduced class sizes etc. We aren’t doing any of that.

It’s become argumentative because it’s an emotive subject and I’m sick and tired of everything having to suffer but school closures or even reduction of class sizes is completely off the table. My partner, who is expecting our first child in March, is now earning 80% of the pittance she was already earning before she’s due to go on the pittance of statutory maternity pay because she has already had to change job once in this pandemic. That would all be fine if it was accomplishing what it needs to but I firmly believe we’re fighting this with one arm tied behind our back and the scientists and Government know it and won’t do anything about it because it’s bad for them politically.

You may be saying that you were just keen on a debate and were genuinely interested in my opinion but your posts did not come across in that way. For what it’s worth, if I said or intimated you or Pogue were idiots then I apologise. It’s a fraught situation and emotions run high.

All good. Maybe I misunderstood the smart references here and here. I took them to mean that if you look at the correlation / change and don't detect the same cause, you couldn't possibly be looking at it while employing even a basic level of intelligence, it's just believing something that defies logic and common sense (following on from Leroy's view). No bother either way.

I see where you're coming from. It's a shit situation all round and my detachment from that doesn't help convey a particularly useful tone. I come at this from a different place and do not remotely think the place I come at it from is at a good representation of the entire country, and I personally value the wide range of voices on the subject.

I agree with you that we're making things worse for the economy by keeping schools open, and I don't understand why they're completely off the table and subject to no debate whatsoever here, while they're closing them all over in freedom-loving US. I personally think the impact of closing primary schools on transmission would be absolutely minimal, but the impact of closing secondary schools would be significant (in line with the NI assessment). I don't think the impact of closing secondary schools would be that bad, personally, but I do think it would be very destructive for primary school kids. We know enough about underdeveloped literacy in early childhood that have lifelong effects that we should take incredibly seriously.

There are young kids in my extended family that benefited a lot from more time with their parents, their speech and reading came on massively. The parents were worried at first about social isolation as an only child but it's created a great learning environment and an amazing family bond. But there's others in my extended family who simply look like they've lost a year of school, a single parent with a newborn baby can't also be a teacher and the young son can't sit still in front of a screen - it was an unworkable situation from the outset, and he'll never get that back. He struggled at school already and there's legitimate concerns that will be a much, much bigger struggle in the years to come, just from a few months out.

So I'd leave primary schools open and secondary schools closed, but I'd accept the decision going either way with the public getting a say on that. I think it's really odd the public has had no say in it at all. So we can mostly agree there and I'll save this thread from any more of my verbosity.

 

[calodo2003]

What exactly do you achieve by blaming individuals?

There’s plenty of lifestyle out there that can be amended that would benefit us all. We do have some say in this issue.

 

[BD]

I think it’s very flawed for what it’s worth but Public Health England’s recent Data on where people had been prior to testing positive;

Proportion of all common locations reported in PHE data:

• Supermarket - 18.3%
• Secondary school - 12.7%
• Primary school - 10.1%
• Hospital - 3.6%
• Care home - 2.8%
• College - 2.4%
• Warehouse - 2.2%
• Nursery preschool - 1.8%
• Pub or bar - 1.6%
• Hospitality - 1.5%
• University - 1.4%
• Manufacture engineering - 1.4%
• Household fewer than five - 1.2%
• General practice - 1.1%
• Gym - 1.1%
• Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%

Hmm yeah that strikes me as quite biased (if this is just a list of places people have been in the X days before a positive case), as everyone goes to the supermarket. But thanks for the source, will have a look.

The figures are out there but its work and education.

Yeah I guess I could've just googled my question, but whereas the fun in that. Cheers!

 

[jojojo]

Perhaps an unanswerable question at the moment, but where are people catching covid? I gather that the rate of transmission in grocery shops is very very low? And the chances of getting it while meeting people outdoors (e.g for a walk) is low too? So where is all this transmission happening?

I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.

Work, education, medical appointments, childcare, elderly care - even if you take indoor socialising out of the equation there are still a lot of interactions going on in some people's live, and those "some people" live in houses with other people.

The patterns of life for singles/couples living alone and working from home, with no caring responsibilities are massively different to the ones driving other people's lives.

 

[acnumber9]

All good. Maybe I misunderstood the smart references here and here. I took them to mean that if you look at the correlation / change and don't detect the same cause, you couldn't possibly be looking at it while employing even a basic level of intelligence, it's just believing something that defies logic and common sense (following on from Leroy's view). No bother either way.

I see where you're coming from. It's a shit situation all round and my detachment from that doesn't help convey a particularly useful tone. I come at this from a different place and do not remotely think the place I come at it from is at a good representation of the entire country, and I personally value the wide range of voices on the subject.

I agree with you that we're making things worse for the economy by keeping schools open, and I don't understand why they're completely off the table and subject to no debate whatsoever here, while they're closing them all over in freedom-loving US. I personally think the impact of closing primary schools on transmission would be absolutely minimal, but the impact of closing secondary schools would be significant (in line with the NI assessment). I don't think the impact of closing secondary schools would be that bad, personally, but I do think it would be very destructive for primary school kids. We know enough about underdeveloped literacy in early childhood that have lifelong effects that we should take incredibly seriously.

There are young kids in my extended family that benefited a lot from more time with their parents, their speech and reading came on massively. The parents were worried at first about social isolation as an only child but it's created a great learning environment and an amazing family bond. But there's others in my extended family who simply look like they've lost a year of school, a single parent with a newborn baby can't also be a teacher and the young son can't sit still in front of a screen - it was an unworkable situation from the outset, and he'll never get that back. He struggled at school already and there's legitimate concerns that will be a much, much bigger struggle in the years to come, just from a few months out.

So I'd leave primary schools open and secondary schools closed, but I'd accept the decision going either way with the public getting a say on that. I think it's really odd the public has had no say in it at all. So we can mostly agree there and I'll save this thread from any more of my verbosity.

My post to Pogue was me alluding to potential bias, which as I’ve said, we all have. I wasn’t being sarcastic when I said he’s a smart man. He clearly is. I’d say the same for you too. I can see why it would be interpreted that way though. My reply to you was a response to you saying this.

If you're smart, you can see the correlation.

It was a direct, and sarcastic I’ll admit, reply to that post. If that was me intimating you’re an idiot then you were guilty of it I’m afraid.


I would agree with you on Primary schools. It doesn’t seem like as big a problem. And I’d advocate leaving them open while closing Secondary schools or at least halving classes and attendance being rotational. At least after a while we could build a clear picture

Without wanting to go in to too much detail, I have personal experience of lost school years and agree it’s a problem but not an insurmountable one. Which is why I think week on, week off could limit the damage in both areas.

 

[BD]

Work, education, medical appointments, childcare, elderly care - even if you take indoor socialising out of the equation there are still a lot of interactions going on in some people's live, and those "some people" live in houses with other people.

The patterns of life for singles/couples living alone and working from home, with no caring responsibilities are massively different to the ones driving other people's lives.

Yeah true, I had kinda lost sight of that somehow.

 

[entropy]

There’s plenty of lifestyle out there that can be amended that would benefit us all. We do have some say in this issue.

But how though? by blaming people? we are ten months into this shitshow and you are telling me, lets shame people more and that will somehow magically work.