Not shaming, bringing up reality. To think that this crisis prevention fell solely on the government is laughable. Not attempting to help the common good by millions in this country is laughable. I’m not shaming, there’s just more that we all could do without the government instructing us to do. There’s a lot of subjectivity that still exists in the populace that could be removed. It may have to be in the coming months & not having the apparent altruism in our society certainly won’t help matters. We’re potentially upwards of a year out from vaccines being able to positively affect most parts of this country. To think that life could progress well til then with only governmental financial assistance & no increased altruism in the populace is laughable.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I think the shambling governmental response and communication in the UK and US has significantly contributed to people's attitude.
Ngl. I stopped reading after the "To think that this crisis prevention fell solely on the government is laughable" bit.
I read that earlier. To call it highly speculative would be a massive understatement! I don’t even think their hypothesis makes theoretical sense. The only evolutionary drive is reproduction and the long incubation period and pre-symptomatic transmission means the severity of the illness is pretty much irrelevant to this outcome.
I agree and their narrative isn't really supported by the quotes they use.
Obviously the severity of symptoms only matters if it reduces infection potential. If it does (and it often does) there is evolutionary pressure towards lead lethal variants . Do we know at what point people with covid stop being infectious? In the case of covid it isn't just death that will be a major selection pressure because anyone who has medium and above symptoms are made much less infectious by human intervention. If significantly different functional strains do emerge I'm thinking there will potentially be heavy selection pressure favouring symptomatically less severe forms as they will be able to be passed to others more easily. Does that make sense or is it wishful thinking?
The other thing is that the more infections the more mutations will occur so the odds of a change increase and then acted upon by selection pressures. This is one reason why trying for HIT without a vaccine is riskier imo.
South Australia is coming out of lockdown ahead of schedule after another day of no new cases.
It is looking like one of those initially infected lied to contact tracers which made them suspect that this was a more infectious new strain which triggered the lockdown at short notice. He worked 3 shifts at his second job at a pizza shop with someone who caught covid from also working ata quarantine hotel but told tracers he just dropped in briefly for a pizza. He then infected all 15 of his family so the the size of the cluster and the 100% infection rate in his family, all allegedly from contact with a pizza box, freaked everyone out.
When the outbreak then stopped in it's tracks they realised something didn't add up and questioned him again. He is going to be popular.
It is looking like one of those initially infected lied to contact tracers which made them suspect that this was a more infectious new strain which triggered the lockdown at short notice. He worked 3 shifts at his second job at a pizza shop with someone who caught covid from also working ata quarantine hotel but told tracers he just dropped in briefly for a pizza. He then infected all 15 of his family so the the size of the cluster and the 100% infection rate in his family, all allegedly from contact with a pizza box, freaked everyone out.
When the outbreak then stopped in it's tracks they realised something didn't add up and questioned him again. He is going to be popular.
Last edited:
Yesterday's latest figures by English region of cases per 100k of population.
Yesterday's latest figures by English region of cases per 100k of population.
Those “1 Day Chng” arrows don’t seem to make sense. London’s last number for cases is 2.5k+, with 2k and 2.1k the previous 2 days data. Yet it has a green arrow pointing down? Same is true of a few other regions (e.g. huge jump in West Midlands but still has green arrow) What’s going on?
Read about that guy, what a knob head
The green arrow relates to the 1 day change in the average 7 day cases per 100k figure, not the actual daily case figure.
Ok I’ve got one of them in a whatsAp group I’m in.
so far today he’s posted an Ian brown tweet saying that the company rushing out a vaccine has already killed kids and paid out billions in fines.
next post that we’d spend hours binging on Netflix but not research for an hour what we will inject in our veins
next “the pandemic isn't working start the racial wars”
so far today he’s posted an Ian brown tweet saying that the company rushing out a vaccine has already killed kids and paid out billions in fines.
next post that we’d spend hours binging on Netflix but not research for an hour what we will inject in our veins
next “the pandemic isn't working start the racial wars”
But how can the the 7 day average trend downwards today, when the most recent data is a big increase on the previous two days?
Same time last week had that massive dump of 30k cases, the data is pulled from the governments figures & this yoke is pretty reliable. The FT are using him as one of their sources for data analysis of the figures at the minute.
American numbers are just batshit crazy. 192k cases yesterday & 2000 deaths with Thanksgiving weekend coming up. Can see them having 3000+ deaths a day soon with all the hospitals filling up
Ah. Ok. So it’s been a steady downward trend since the massive dump and one day of increase will slow that trend but not reverse it. Makes sense. Thanks.
Oh dear god, the only cure for that level of dumb is a sledgehammer to the face.
My daughters school has finally relented, Ive been arguing with them for weeks over their ban on masks in school, its only when I and more than a few other parents threatened to withdraw our kids and go to the press that they have changed their mind, its not like they even gave any rational explanation for it!
And to think that Ian Brown could be even more shit at something than singing.
Had some Ian Brown gibberish shared via WhatsApp today too, assuming it's the same thing. Bullshit wrapped in well-written English and spoken like fact. As dangerous as it is dumb from a person of influence like him.
Been there, done that, back in April. I know how shit it feels. Woke up one morning and could not smell the soap on my hands as I was washing them, even when basically sticking my fingers up my nose. Back then it was all very new too and I had a couple of days of anxiety where I’d seen reports that people didn’t get their sense of taste and smell back at all. But most do after about 2 weeks; just keep in mind it’s going to be a gradual return to 100% of the senses and not one eureka moment. It was shit because food and drink lost all meaning and I ended up losing some weight back then.
Personally my senses started to come back around 10 days after I first lost them, and you might feel a fluctation at times where it seems to come and go; but don’t worry, it will all come back fully.
I read a very good medical report back then that explained it was simply a structure above the nose that connected the nerves of the nose to the brain that had swollen; and so the nerves were blocked from sending the nervous signals of the senses up through the brain. With time the swelling subsides and the passages open back up, which is when you start to smell and taste again.
Personally it took me a month and a half to get 100% back; salt was one of the first tastes to return but chocolate one of the last.
Hope this helps mate, chin up and just know it won’t be permanent!
This does help. Thanks for this
That’s interesting but not sure it’s true. I read that the nerves actually die. But the olfactory nerve is unusual it that it can regrow neurons (most other nerves can’t regenerate) Because these neurons are brand new it takes a while for your brain to adjust to them, so stuff can smell weird for a while after your smell comes back.
There’s a really fascinating theory based on the observation that people who lose their smell are more likely to have a less severe illness. That theory is that your body triggers cell death in these neurons to stop the virus getting a foothold in your CNS (it can only replicate in living cells) Kind of a scorched earth policy.
Yeah, even back then it seemed the trend was: if you get mild Covid, you lose your taste and smell for weeks. If you get severe Covid, your senses stay in tact but you get admitted to hospital. Choose your poison. The worst symptom I had apart from the loss of senses was a headache that lasted a couple of hours. That was it.
During the first couple of days I even wished I had the more severe version instead. But back then I was genuinely worried that there was a chance I lost my taste and smell permanently. Which was a pretty sickening thought!
Doesn’t bear thinking about. Must have been horrible. My sister’s best friend came of a bike and banged her head as a child and permanently lost her sense of smell. Such a shitty thing to deal with.
My school district has announced that since reopening elementary schools to 5 days per week went so well, they’re going to do the same with middle schools. Here’s the numbers for the county my school district covers since October. Elementary schools went back to 5 days per week in between 22 and 29 of October...
1 Oct: 170 cases / 100,000 - 11.4% pos
8 Oct: 198 cases / 100,000 - 11.3% pos
15 Oct: 235 cases / 100,000 - 14.2% pos
22 Oct: 289 cases / 100,000 - 13.8% pos
29 Oct: 314 cases / 100,000 - 14.1% pos
5 Nov: 324 cases / 100,000 - 15.8% pos
12 Nov: 400 cases / 100,000 - 17.6% pos
19 Nov: 541 cases / 100,000 - 19.5% pos
1 Oct: 170 cases / 100,000 - 11.4% pos
8 Oct: 198 cases / 100,000 - 11.3% pos
15 Oct: 235 cases / 100,000 - 14.2% pos
22 Oct: 289 cases / 100,000 - 13.8% pos
29 Oct: 314 cases / 100,000 - 14.1% pos
5 Nov: 324 cases / 100,000 - 15.8% pos
12 Nov: 400 cases / 100,000 - 17.6% pos
19 Nov: 541 cases / 100,000 - 19.5% pos
Last edited:
In the Uk, Supermarkets are number one. Then schools. Then Hospitals.
Home & residential settings will be by far the number one place. Where is that data from?
You have to pick it up somewhere before you bring it home.
I believe that was reported by the media, but relied on a, frankly, completely illiterate reading of the underlying data.
If the data that's being referred to is the latest from PHE around the Test & Trace app:
I think it’s close to impossible to know with any real certainty. Ultimately it has to get in your home somehow because it doesn’t start there. Be it from having somebody in your home or going to somebody else’s.
Homes are always going to be high on the list because there are significantly more homes than supermarkets though so once you bring it home and give it to somebody else that would be classed as the cluster wouldn’t it? I can’t pretend to be an expert on this though.
Another promising piece of news, this time on antibodies and reinfection.
From the Guardian covid news feed:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08abc6a8cb51c0#block-5fb7c7ca8f08abc6a8cb51c0
From a trial being run at Oxford:
The healthcare workers were tested for antibodies to detect who had been infected before and then tested staff regularly for Covid-19, both when they became unwell with symptoms and also as part of regular testing of staff.
During the study, 89 of 11,052 staff without antibodies developed a new infection with symptoms and 76 tested positive when symptomless. By comparison none of the 1,246 staff with antibodies developed a symptomatic infection and only three developed an asymptomatic one.
Based on this preliminary study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.20234369v1
From the Guardian covid news feed:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08abc6a8cb51c0#block-5fb7c7ca8f08abc6a8cb51c0
From a trial being run at Oxford:
The healthcare workers were tested for antibodies to detect who had been infected before and then tested staff regularly for Covid-19, both when they became unwell with symptoms and also as part of regular testing of staff.
During the study, 89 of 11,052 staff without antibodies developed a new infection with symptoms and 76 tested positive when symptomless. By comparison none of the 1,246 staff with antibodies developed a symptomatic infection and only three developed an asymptomatic one.
Based on this preliminary study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.20234369v1
Agree with you on all of that, it's all about the dwell time & homes are the prime place for that (without distancing, face coverings, long periods indoors). This is from the same report:
https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/e...f-under-50s-by-end-of-january/7029015.article
Plans to begin vaccination of under 50s by the end of January
Plans to begin vaccination of under 50s by the end of January
Yeah it will have at a maximum capacity but I'm sure it could have been done. Many people/families would see it as a mental release and it could have kept the Zoo's in business.
It was one obvious way of keeping the balance between Covid health and mental/economic health.
Yeah, PHE produced what was a list of where people had been, which is of course quite different from a list of where people were actually infected. Didn't stop all the people that want pubs open putting it on facebook to 'prove' no one caught it in pubs though, but that's what we're up against.
That's pretty optimistic that the UK is going to be allocated, and be able to deliver, 90 million doses in the next 2 months. Best case they're only getting 10 million from Pfizer this year and they're way down the Moderna list.
I think test and trace only ask who you've met going back as far as two days before you got symptoms, because they're looking for who you could have given it to. So basically if you go out for the weekend and develop symptoms next Thursday, the system only wants to know about Tuesday onwards. They don't ask how you think you got it (which could be the pub, the gym, the cafe, or even the church 4 or 5 days before.
So even if people are doing it "by the book" and being completely honest, a lot of people genuinely won't have been anywhere or met anyone outside home, work, supermarket.
I think it's a major anomaly, because it means that they don't get much epidemiological information from the system. Nor can they alert people who are asymptomatic that "last Saturday in the pub you may have met a superspreader - get a test." Of course, delays in the system often mean it's pretty irrelevant anyway - one of my family has just been advised to self isolate for two days.
I severely doubt that.
We had 10s of millions going to supermarkets without masks up until July 24th. Cases fell down to 600, and that's with community testing catching the 600. We'd still be on 25k a day or many thousands with hundreds a day dead throughout the summer if people were getting it from supermarkets and bringing it home to their families. Not a chance it's from supermarkets.
Masks were brought in on 24th of July to get down the last few cases but coincidentally from that point onwards cases started to rise and rise across Europe. It's from sustained close contact in homes, mixing households, close confines at work, high schools and universities, parties etc.
Last edited: