I fecking knew it!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Hmmm. There’s been dozens of biotech firms touting finger prick serology kits that promise the earth but don’t deliver. I wouldn’t be putting my house on a start-up delivering a test that can match the accuracy of the Roche/Abbot tests, never mind surpass them. Especially if it’s going to be a do it yourself kit. Actually, never mind the house, I don’t think I’d risk my garden shed!
You never know though. I haven’t watched that webinar yet. Thanks for sharing.
Last edited:
I’m hopeful that it all works. from piecing together things found online (Abingdon health are another of the consortium members and are privately owned so tweet a fair bit) I think the plan will be to link it to an app.
It’s government backed as well and whilst that doesn’t guarantee success bojo needs a good news story desperately at the moment. Fingers crossed as I’d definitely buy one for me and all the family and I’d imagine everyone would.
In a norwegian news article the NHI (Norwegian health institute) is talking about a K-factor. Everyone now knows about the R-factor, which tells how many new people each infected infects (average number).
The K-factor says something about the variation in that number. A high K-factor would indicate that most people infect others with a mostly similar value. A low K-factor says that some people infect many and most people few or none.
The K-factor for Covid-19 is low. That means as most people now know, that mass gatherings is a key element in huge transmission of the virus.
A new study suggests that the K-factor for Covid-19 is 0.1 With, say, an R of 2-3, approximately 10% of the infected does 80% of the infecting.
An example:
10 persons gets infected. Of those 10:
If 1 person infects 16 others (super spreading),
2 infects 2 each
and 7 infects none
Then you get a total of 20 secondary cases, which gives us R=2.
If one had prevented the super spreading event, there would have been only 4 secondary cases and R=0,4.
This means that you propably need super spreading events to get a rapid growth and start a local epidemic of Covid-19.
Also one has to consider the percentage of infected in the society at the time for the event(s). The higher infection numbers in the population, the more chance for a super spreader to be present at the event.
In Oslo, with a infection number at 0,1% used, the propability for an infected at a gathering of 1000 people is 63,2%. Behaviour is also a key factor. If the infected has a large viral load and maybe cough, the chance for spreading is large. Also, of course if there is yelling, singing etc, that will contribute to the risk.
This is propably rather obvious for most people, but I post this anyway since I had not heard about the K-factor before.
The K-factor says something about the variation in that number. A high K-factor would indicate that most people infect others with a mostly similar value. A low K-factor says that some people infect many and most people few or none.
The K-factor for Covid-19 is low. That means as most people now know, that mass gatherings is a key element in huge transmission of the virus.
A new study suggests that the K-factor for Covid-19 is 0.1 With, say, an R of 2-3, approximately 10% of the infected does 80% of the infecting.
An example:
10 persons gets infected. Of those 10:
If 1 person infects 16 others (super spreading),
2 infects 2 each
and 7 infects none
Then you get a total of 20 secondary cases, which gives us R=2.
If one had prevented the super spreading event, there would have been only 4 secondary cases and R=0,4.
This means that you propably need super spreading events to get a rapid growth and start a local epidemic of Covid-19.
Also one has to consider the percentage of infected in the society at the time for the event(s). The higher infection numbers in the population, the more chance for a super spreader to be present at the event.
In Oslo, with a infection number at 0,1% used, the propability for an infected at a gathering of 1000 people is 63,2%. Behaviour is also a key factor. If the infected has a large viral load and maybe cough, the chance for spreading is large. Also, of course if there is yelling, singing etc, that will contribute to the risk.
This is propably rather obvious for most people, but I post this anyway since I had not heard about the K-factor before.
Generally true, but it seems like there's more uniformity in Europe than the US from what we've seen so far.
The one major outlier is Russia, who started seeing cases grow at the same time as the UK or France but it's grown for much longer, and shown no signs of falling. Belarus too, with obvious questions about the numbers. Beyond that you have Sweden and Poland who have seemed content to manage a steady number of relatively high cases. Then you have Ukraine, Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and North Macedonia who have seen things grow in the last couple of weeks, albeit with smaller number of cases overall. 40 of the 49 countries are either declining significantly or have already brought them down to significantly low levels.
In the US, most states were re-opening their economies in the same position Poland were in - stable but relatively high. There might've been 10 states that were showing significant declines or at significantly low levels, and that's increased to maybe 15 by now, but there's just a lot more variation in the US. To say Europe is over the first wave would be a pretty reasonable sweeping assessment, with some caveats. You couldn't say the US is over the first wave but you couldn't say it's in the middle of it either, there's no unifying trend even with caveats.
UK infection rates have fallen again - according to the ONS random sampling tests covering the period to the 7th March. Currently running at around 1 in 1700 in the general population, down from around 1 in a 1000 in the last report.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020
"Out of the 19,933 participants' swab tests included in this analysis, 11 individuals in 8 households tested positive for COVID-19. As this is a household survey, our figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. In these settings, rates of COVID-19 infection are likely to be different."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020
"Out of the 19,933 participants' swab tests included in this analysis, 11 individuals in 8 households tested positive for COVID-19. As this is a household survey, our figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. In these settings, rates of COVID-19 infection are likely to be different."
UK infection rates have fallen again - according to the ONS random sampling tests covering the period to the 7th March. Currently running at around 1 in 1700 in the general population, down from around 1 in a 1000 in the last report.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020
"Out of the 19,933 participants' swab tests included in this analysis, 11 individuals in 8 households tested positive for COVID-19. As this is a household survey, our figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. In these settings, rates of COVID-19 infection are likely to be different.
I suppose the next weekly figures will be the interesting ones as it would start to include infections from the mass gatherings and protest from last weekend, if there's to be an increase at all.
Mon Fri last week 1327
Mon Fri this week 939
The Italian government said in their update today that in Lombardy 25% of people tested are coming back positive for Covid antibodies. It's likely to be slightly off because lots are refusing tests, but it's way higher than anything announced so far.
The figure for healthcare workers is 12%. Possibly it's low because we segregated Covid hospitals early on and all healthcare workers kept well away from other people.
The figure for healthcare workers is 12%. Possibly it's low because we segregated Covid hospitals early on and all healthcare workers kept well away from other people.
How big a region is Lombardy? Something that only occurred to me recently is that serology tests will always underestimated true exposure. We know that antibodies decrease fairly quickly and a proportion of people don’t generate much antibodies at all (especially milder cases). So if we’re getting 25% positive serology, then true exposure could be maybe even double that. Which is getting close to the sort of exposure needed for herd immunity.
If prior exposure gives you immunity (that’s a very big if)
I've also been wondering if antibodies from other coronaviruses could be impacting the spread and mean that herd immunity can be achieved at a lower percentage. It has happened before with influenza type antibodies where they can make people immune to whole subsets of influenza type B virus strains and it's also been proved in labs that some B antibodies can give protection against some strains of influenza type A.
There's early research on this looking at SARs antibodies and I guess it's even possible that some of the cold strains are close enough to give a percentage of people protection.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200403103959.htm
If this were the case it may mean that a percentage of the population are incapable of getting this. Probably optimistic and no way of knowing as yet.
10 million people, with a similar population density to Cheshire, and 160,000 have been tested so far.
I think it could be more likely that it is overestimating in this case though. A lot of people are avoiding tests because of privacy concerns, and if you have a positive result you have to quarantine for 14 days and also get the swab test. I expect many of the people agreeing to it are the ones who already think they had it and want to find out.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/12/middleeast/yemen-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html
Heartbreaking. Poor people. first years of civil and proxy wars, and now Chikungunya virus, cholera outbreak and Covid-19 plus other diseases, no governmment, crashing healthcare etc etc..
I really hope rich nations can help the people of Yemen. The hospitals are shutting down due to lack of funding etc.
Heartbreaking. Poor people. first years of civil and proxy wars, and now Chikungunya virus, cholera outbreak and Covid-19 plus other diseases, no governmment, crashing healthcare etc etc..
I really hope rich nations can help the people of Yemen. The hospitals are shutting down due to lack of funding etc.
10 million. There is a lot of variation between excess deaths in different provinces in Lombardy, which would not be possible if spread was 50%. I haven't seen anyone mention that antibodies decrease quickly enough for it to make a large difference to these studies, any links to contrary?
I would think the bias is for the people who were ill to be more likely to agree to a test, so 25% would be overestimate, imo.
Lombardy's excess deaths are around 25k, so with 25% infected, we would still have IFR of 1%. In Lombardy health care system broke down in some regions, as we remember.
The margins of error are huge and overlapping.
I can't see how there wont be some kind of increase. Basically there either will be or we have to start considering whether the guidance being given is actually that accurate.
Though hopefully it will make a fairly modest difference. 20 (rough estimate) mass gatherings for a protest still doesn't really compare to literally hundreds of sporting and music events a week. Brexit marches were basically weekly events as well.
Either way a rate of around 1-1,000 is good news compared to a few weeks ago but still isn't fantastic.
The broad downwards indicator is reasonable though. The main sources of the error margins are the tests themselves and the way that, as the disease becomes less common across the country, it becomes easier to miss local hotspots. For this stage in the UK, it's probably a more important test set statistically speaking than the one that the NHS produces based on people with symptoms or those in particular locations (like a care home) to be tested.
In fact at the moment it's this one, the hospital admissions and the (two) deaths stats that I'm taking seriously. The rest just look too wobbly to mean anything - like the "tests done or posted" that isn't accompanied by a corresponding figure for how many people were tested and how many got results within 24 hours. At least the ONS actually care about the statistics they produce.
Where would people be without the government's detailed and specific guidance?:
'Q. What do you say to businesses in the south-west who are actually quite worried about the R value?
Shapps says stay alert and stay at home as much as possible.
Q. Is it acceptable that student nurses who answered the government’s call to join the frontline response to Covid-19 are being asked to carry out duties beyond their level of competence? How will they be fully protected and supported?
Shapps says people should be working in areas in which they are and feel competent.'
---------------------------
Absolutely pathetic.
'Q. What do you say to businesses in the south-west who are actually quite worried about the R value?
Shapps says stay alert and stay at home as much as possible.
Q. Is it acceptable that student nurses who answered the government’s call to join the frontline response to Covid-19 are being asked to carry out duties beyond their level of competence? How will they be fully protected and supported?
Shapps says people should be working in areas in which they are and feel competent.'
---------------------------
Absolutely pathetic.
If there's no increase then this whole covid fiasco is doubtful at every avenue.
It's beyond pathetic. Saw a good comment on the Graun today re Sturgeon. She's been there, every day, for an hour plus each time. She answers well and has sign language etc. England get the PM once a week or so and a widened A66.
What the feck is the transport minister fronting this crap for? (retorical)
Not sure about that. There’s obviously been a lot of cases and deaths but since most countries have opened up again there seems to have been little increase in cases. Many virologists predicted it would die down in the summer and come back in the autumn from the start. Or maybe something else has happened which will come to light in time.
Coronavirus: Call for answers over 'omitted' BAME pages of report
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53035054
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53035054
last week 1531
this week 1120 (411 less deaths)
Seattle coronavirus survivor gets a $1.1 million, 181-page hospital bill
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...obox_f&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1592007864
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...obox_f&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1592007864
Sounds reasonable.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ung-transplant-chicago?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Case of a 20 year old patient with severe covid who got a lung transplant. Interesting bit here
The lungs being matted to surrounding structures might explain the post recovery prolonged chest pain being a prominent feature
This is the diseased lung and chest xray
Case of a 20 year old patient with severe covid who got a lung transplant. Interesting bit here
The lungs being matted to surrounding structures might explain the post recovery prolonged chest pain being a prominent feature
This is the diseased lung and chest xray
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ung-transplant-chicago?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Case of a 20 year old patient with severe covid who got a lung transplant. Interesting bit here
The lungs being matted to surrounding structures might explain the post recovery prolonged chest pain being a prominent feature
This is the diseased lung and chest xray
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ung-transplant-chicago?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Case of a 20 year old patient with severe covid who got a lung transplant. Interesting bit here
The lungs being matted to surrounding structures might explain the post recovery prolonged chest pain being a prominent feature
This is the diseased lung and chest xray
The anatomy of that is hard to follow. Are they getting adhesions from the lung to the pleura? Or from the pleura to the surrounding structures? Because the latter doesn’t make sense considering what we know about where the ACE2 receptors are located.
In South Carolina, 14 of the 15 highest single day positive case totals have come in the last 15 days. Our positive test percentage has gone from 2.7% in late May to 13% as of June 10.
Meanwhile, our confederate general caught in a time warp of a governor has stated that he will not reissue a stay at home order.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/south-carolina-1st-states-reopen-now-coronavirus-cases/story?id=71217087
Meanwhile, our confederate general caught in a time warp of a governor has stated that he will not reissue a stay at home order.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/south-carolina-1st-states-reopen-now-coronavirus-cases/story?id=71217087
Last edited:
Not bad, i was expecting worse
2020 says: challenge accepted.
Surprised Trump 2nd term doesn’t take preference over the 2nd wave.
Why is the death rate in Uk so high?
Here in India we seemed screwed now. Even with lack of testing going so high in numbers.
Here in India we seemed screwed now. Even with lack of testing going so high in numbers.
this actually wouldn't shock me.We're one of the countries with the least under reporting. It's believed we're under reporting by about 30% A lot of countries its estimated are under reporting by 100% or more. That's not a everyone else is lying thing, just that they won't know the true figures yet for a while.
I stopped reading about the virus about two months ago after spending days reading about it when I was in bed with my leg injury, because it would make me depressed, but is it really possible that the mankind still have no new information about it at all?
1. Do we still have no idea if the herd immunity is a thing or are we still guessing?
2. Can one person get infected twice(or more)? Do we get immunity after the first infection?
3. Are asimptomatic people who have the virus still dangerous for people around or was that fake news? I saw some headlines few weeks ago about WHO saying those people aren't dangerous as we supposed they are?
4. What is the real percentage of death and tough hospital cases from Covid, considering it's quite clear that pretty much every country uses skewed data and from what I have followed death while being infected with coronavirus was regulary considered as Coronavirus death when it comes to numbers.
Can anyone who still follows this on global level respond to these questions, I would be grateful.
1. Do we still have no idea if the herd immunity is a thing or are we still guessing?
2. Can one person get infected twice(or more)? Do we get immunity after the first infection?
3. Are asimptomatic people who have the virus still dangerous for people around or was that fake news? I saw some headlines few weeks ago about WHO saying those people aren't dangerous as we supposed they are?
4. What is the real percentage of death and tough hospital cases from Covid, considering it's quite clear that pretty much every country uses skewed data and from what I have followed death while being infected with coronavirus was regulary considered as Coronavirus death when it comes to numbers.
Can anyone who still follows this on global level respond to these questions, I would be grateful.
Coronavirus: Fear of second wave in Beijing after market outbreak
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53034924
Oh oh
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53034924
Oh oh
Last edited:
Twas inevitable. I'm surprised it took this long, actually.