Were these people popping to the pub after having taken a test to check if they were infected? That seems like the only way they could know by Monday that they were positive. Surely if you're worried enough to be ordering a test, you shouldn't be going to the pub?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Were these people popping to the pub after having taken a test to check if they were infected? That seems like the only way they could know by Monday that they were positive. Surely if you're worried enough to be ordering a test, you shouldn't be going to the pub?
I get the feeling that the UK is like a vessel drifting towards the rocks while an idiot is asleep at the wheel, ignoring his mates trying to sell off places in the lifeboats.
However it feels like in the USA the "Captain" is actively trying to steer the boat onto the rocks and calling for "full steam ahead" because he thinks the "firm leadership" will play well with enough of his voters that survive the shipwreck.
I don't feel either outcome will be positive if a second wave appears.
Different versions of the same shitshow. The sheer idiocy is stunning.
Italy is starting to play with fire a little now. Cases numbers are down to 100-200 per day of which around half are only discovered through random serological tests and a significant number of the remainder are classed as weakly positive. The virus has been under control for some time.
But, since air travel has reopened almost all of the new outbreaks are coming in from abroad. In the last couple of days infected people have come in from Albania, Kosovo and New York, and just yesterday there were 12 Bangladeshis testing positive who had all flown in in recent days. They are being caught and isolated early but if they keep coming eventually some are going to slip through.
But, since air travel has reopened almost all of the new outbreaks are coming in from abroad. In the last couple of days infected people have come in from Albania, Kosovo and New York, and just yesterday there were 12 Bangladeshis testing positive who had all flown in in recent days. They are being caught and isolated early but if they keep coming eventually some are going to slip through.
Last edited:
The “casts doubt” bit is because seroprevalence is so low (5%) when you need 60-70%+ to achieve herd immunity. Which accurately reflects the study findings. Unless I’m missing something? Why would the study design lead to an underestimate of true seroprevalence?
There's too much opening-up of air travel, I agree. We feel relatively safe in our neck of the woods, but that could change so quickly.
It’s just not possible for any EU country to function with travel restricted to the extent that will prevent imported cases. It’s something we’re going to have to live with, unfortunately.
Two words - Brits Out!
Yep. UK is one of the highest per million in testing now. We could pick away at each country with their inaccurate rapid tests and so on.
A big worry for UK being an international hub is the air travel opening up, there's no tests or checks for people coming in and the virus is spreading more around the world now. Autumn/Winter with no ventilation in all the cramped small buildings here could be problem again.
Even some testing at airports could've helped massively and surely with flights a lot lower in number it should be feasible to test some and take details. People were coming in from ground zero Italy unchecked and now we have people coming in from Brazil unchecked.
Melbourne has been put back into level 3 lockdown for a minimum of six weeks, largely because people have acted like idiots and thought it was all over. School holiday's extended by a week (and staying closed likely), pubs, bars and restaurants back to takeaway food only again. Not surprising when they are topping 100 infections or day mainly connected to existing outbreaks or community transmission and another 2 deaths taking the national total to 106. There goes the toilet paper again.
The rest of the states are Covid free except for NSW who had 2 cases imported from Victoria yesterday at the border but all other cases are international arrivals in quarantine.
The rest of the states are Covid free except for NSW who had 2 cases imported from Victoria yesterday at the border but all other cases are international arrivals in quarantine.
Really concerned as to what is happening currently in Melbourne due to me having family there.
That is suicidal. Even if you don't just shut down air travel (which would have been a very good idea) having no testing and no quarantine is just inexplicable.
Sounds plausible, however there are testing centres open on Sunday and tests could be turned around quickly. Just comes back to common sense really.
In truth they should be more worried about you. The situation in Melbourne is only bad by Australian standards and we jump on things far faster than happens in Europe, UK or USA. And we are in mid-winter which Melbourne a cold and wet city. I'd say there is a good chance that this will be controlled quite quickly. medical facilities are good and hardly impacted by Covid so far with elective surgery and testing etc back to almost normal.
Testing every person arriving at a major travel hub like London really isn’t an option. As for shutting down air travel completely...
Testing their temperature is and imposing quarantine is (even the far from perfect self-quarantine option is better than nothing). And shutting down to all international travel in the middle of a global pandemic is just basic common sense. Not to do so guarantees failure to suppress the virus and the huge economic damage that comes with that. The UK is very likely to get a massive second wave as the weather cools to top this off. And the cost in already more than the population of York in terms of lives lost, not to mention the unnecessary economic damage that has been, and more particularly will be, caused.
Do you know how the travel ban is supposed to work in the EU? And why the UK hasn't joined that scheme when they are seemingly a point of entry to the EU?
“Failure to suppress” the virus is inevitable in a highly interconnected continent like Europe, with varied responses to the pandemic. Eradication was taken off the table months ago. So the priority now is finding a balance between keeping society functioning as close to normal as possible (which includes the freedom to travel) while keeping the number of cases at a level that the healthcare service can cope with. The UK and Belgium have been the worst hit by far and even they have the balance about right, at the moment. There are plenty of other examples of countries that have performed far better than those two, without any of the draconian measures you’re suggesting.
Not off the top of my head, no. I could google it. I think it’s all made quite complicated by the different travel arrangements already in place between the Schengen countries and the UK/Ireland CTA.
The Melbourne situation has kind of shocked me back to reality / feeling of anxiousness similar to April.
In NSW we're comfortable for now, but I don't think the conditions are much different in that it could've been either state that relapsed.
Demonstrates a level of complacency. I'm feeling that on a personal level anyway.
In NSW we're comfortable for now, but I don't think the conditions are much different in that it could've been either state that relapsed.
Demonstrates a level of complacency. I'm feeling that on a personal level anyway.
You still do not get it, do you? We can not go on hunting and eating all kind of exotic and wild animals. Does it matter if it is a bacteria or a virus? The risk still lies there, like I said, next time it might be another SARS, maybe something worse. And China does do a lot of this, also treating animals in a way that exposes other animals and humans to greater risk of infection.
And btw, Bubonic plague is mainly spread by infected fleas, and ingesting CAN infect via body fluids from the dead animal, it is just rare.
Here is an article from UN, if you still do not understand the danger in the way people hunt and treat willd and exotic animals:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/failing-warns-rise-animal-human-diseases-200707055027985.html
There are a number of viruses and bacterial diseases than transfers this way, most in wild and exotic animals. Certain animals are known for hosting many viruses.
If we do not change the way we interact with them, we will have more pandemics and epidemics than we ever had before due to the interconnected way of life we now have.
You can quarrel details all you like, my point still stands.
I don’t get what the point in doing it now even is. People already in the UK are just as likely to have it as people coming from most other countries. The time to stop people coming ended a long time ago.
From the UK point of view it makes no sense whatsoever, I agree. It’s a trickier decision for countries with very little community spread (we had just 3 cases in Ireland yesterday) but the consequences of basically shutting down travel within the EU means it’s not an option. Something I would like to see is making it compulsory for all new arrivals in Ireland to download our covid tracker app. And there really should be an EU wide rollout of something similar. It’s frustrating the way the EU is essentially one big country, yet there’s so little consistency in approach between member states. Which seems to be the same problem the US is experiencing.
Ireland is always going to be in an impossible situation because of Northern Ireland anyway. Fortunately we haven’t been doing too bad either.
True. Now be a good lad and download the app! Apparently works anywhere on the island.
The app is actually surprisingly great, coming from someone who has developed stuff for the HSE before when I worked in consulting, it's amazing that it isn't a stinking pile of dog shite.
I think we could all survive a few months without travel from the Americas or Eastern European countries that mostly still think it's all a hoax. That's where the imported cases are coming from.
The US, Russia and Brazil are supposed to be/become banned destinations.
I do not think you are missing anything. I think the question revolves around why the seroprevalence was so low. The papers authors suggest that their study design did have some holes:
1. Young adults were underrepresented.
2. No assisted care facilities, admitted hot spots for infection, were included - I do not like the way they explain this away. Seniors who live at home are not representative of those in assisted care facilities.
3. The relatively low infection rates in costal and rural areas - They do attempt to algorithmically adjust for the overrepresentation (based on population percentage) of these communities compared to major urban areas. I will take their word on this.
Essentially, my issue is that the article title attributes a claim non-feasibility to a paper that does no such thing. The article itself is not that bad (my 3am brain was grumpy and was not being fair), but the title is disingenuous.
Ok, fair enough. I’m definitely missing something. Should probably read the publication before discussing it!
Brazilian President awaiting COVID-19 test results.
Trump next
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/cor...ro-tested-for-covid-19-after-feeling-ill.html
Trump next
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/cor...ro-tested-for-covid-19-after-feeling-ill.html
I'd never wish death on anyone but I would like it to at least be serious enough that Bolsanaro can no longer be president. I think that's fair?Brazilian President awaiting COVID-19 test results.
Trump next
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/cor...ro-tested-for-covid-19-after-feeling-ill.html
Brazilian news sources, including an affiliate of CNN — report that Bolsonaro has tested positive for the virus, but this has not been verified by CNBC or officially confirmed.
Very fair
As we approach 1000 pages, I was there on page 1, mildly apprehensive but mostly joking that I was on a plane toTaiwan. Mad to see how collectively attitudes changed online from memes and jokes to “oh shit” over the space of a few months
Last edited:
It's killing the air freight business as most of it would be in the underbelly of passenger planes, I speak from experience, its like playing Tetris at work with different sterilised loads returning to us to to await a containers instead of going to Shannon or Dublin, but it has to be done, can't leave the to yanks have access, they would travel.
Israel did well to get the daily number of infected down during lockdown, then opened things up in haste. While the number of dead or seriously ill is low, the number of infected has risen dramatically in the last couple of weeks, so a lot of things are shutting down again. Geniuses.
I stand by my Wu-Tang Clan joke.
I think I was wise enough not to post it but my attitude at the begging was largely 'I wish the media would stop scaring people about this'. I changed my view rather suddenly after my doctors surgery was one of the first places in the UK to have to close.
I remember my British friend in China asking me to countersign a document so he could get a new passport then get the hell out of Dodge at the beginning of February. I can recall thinking he was massively overreacting. I thought it would all just blow over until I had to self isolate at the end of February, which sparked my attitude change. It really is once in a lifetime (I hope).