SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I think (younger) people are taking more risks in the knowledge that the vaccine is beginning to get rolled out to the vulnerable.

For those who used to do the bare minimum out of guilt for the knock on effects, that guilt is now being undercut by positivity about the pandemic turning a corner. People are becoming more willing to roll the dice on themselves now that they feel their grandparents' safety is going to be assured as long as they isolate for a few more weeks.

I reckon infection rates will get a lot worse in the short term. Covid-fatigue married with vaccine-optimism is going to do that.
 
I was speaking with my consultant today and we both randomly noticed that the average age of those who are incredibly sick right now has definitely shifted towards the younger generation. A few months back, I'd say the "sickest" would be around 70 years of age. Now, it's certainly in the 45-55 range.
I asked my wife about this when she got home today. She said they’ve seen the same thing happen here.

A penny for your thoughts on why that’s happening...
 


The London Ambulance Service said Boxing Day was one of its "busiest ever days", with 7,918 calls - up by more than 2,500 compared with the same day in 2019.

The numbers were so high that the service was forced to get help from other services across the South.
 

Why would boxing day be one of the busiest due to covid? All of these people got suddenly ill on the same day? This doesn't mean much apart from the fact people were extra fearful and cautious and phoned the ambulance service rather than delaying.
 
Despite trumps long haul efforts to discredit this guy and the right wings following of Trumps lead I still think when this guys speaks we need to listen.
It's only logical. There aren't many strict measure being taken to control the spread right now and the wave is showing no signs of peaking yet. Add to that, the fact winter is coming and the flu season along with it, things can only get worse. It will take months before vaccines have any impact on mortality. Let alone long covid.
 
Why would boxing day be one of the busiest due to covid? All of these people got suddenly ill on the same day? This doesn't mean much apart from the fact people were extra fearful and cautious and phoned the ambulance service rather than delaying.

What sort of logic is that?
 
Why would boxing day be one of the busiest due to covid? All of these people got suddenly ill on the same day? This doesn't mean much apart from the fact people were extra fearful and cautious and phoned the ambulance service rather than delaying.
Better to look at the daily trends or 7 day averages to get a clearer picture of trends. As it is, it is worrying.

35k cases a day average and 500 fatalities a day average, all record peaks, before christmas shutdowns, is very worrying. It'll be two weeks before the recent lockdowns show any signs of impact. So expect things to get worse before they get better.
 
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Why would boxing day be one of the busiest due to covid? All of these people got suddenly ill on the same day? This doesn't mean much apart from the fact people were extra fearful and cautious and phoned the ambulance service rather than delaying.

That is utterly bizarre.
 
I asked my wife about this when she got home today. She said they’ve seen the same thing happen here.

A penny for your thoughts on why that’s happening...

It could just be a function of so many younger people getting infected.
 


This is an Austrian ski resort

Countries in Europe are in lockdown, cases and deaths are high across the region and there's a new strain on the loose to top it off.
 
It could just be a function of so many younger people getting infected.

In terms of calls to ambulances and hospital visits we are pretty much par with the first wave in the UK now so the overall situation should be similar, so yeah, it could be that there are higher percentages of younger people being infected.

I am guessing (and hoping) that care homes and the like are better prepared now and that this might be a sign that measures put in place to protect the vulnerable age groups are working.

It's also possible that within the elderly population a proportion of the groups most likely to be infected have been already. There will be more immunity in those people and I guess those not infected so far are probably statistically likely to be taking more care of not getting it in the first place.
 

From one gamble straight into the next. I did think they'd want to take a look at the Christmas impact first.

I do think primary need to be in school as much as possible - though maybe only 2/3 days per week. But my secondary age relatives were in and out of school all last term and there's still been no provision for laptops/home WiFi to facilitate home/online learning for the poorer ones. They could/should have been able to switch to halftime onsite by now.

Instead it's going to be an all in - and I suspect a totally disorganised almost all out half-term again. Our dependence on rolling out the vaccines had just jumped another notch.

Hopefully they won't send the university students back as well. We'll see.
 
In terms of calls to ambulances and hospital visits we are pretty much par with the first wave in the UK now so the overall situation should be similar, so yeah, it could be that there are higher percentages of younger people being infected.

I am guessing (and hoping) that care homes and the like are better prepared now and that this might be a sign that measures put in place to protect the vulnerable age groups are working.

It's also possible that within the elderly population a proportion of the groups most likely to be infected have been already. There will be more immunity in those people and I guess those not infected so far are probably statistically likely to be taking more care of not getting it in the first place.

The biggest driver in the difference IMO will be the elderly/vulnerable being completely unprepared before the first wave and taking great care to self isolate this time round.

Of course, the one way to know for sure is to compare the age profile of those being infected, then and now. If 40-50 year olds are many multiples more likely to catch the virus than the elderly that would explain why they’re disproportionately showing up as very sick.

I’m sure the data on ages is published somewhere.
 
Last time I opened this thread it was ~50 pages ago.

Shit has definitely become a lot worse in Wales. A month or so ago, only a quarter of our ward was stationed for Optiflow or CPAP. Now, our whole HDU Respiratory ward is Optiflow/CPAP.

A 45 year old, fit as feck with no past medical history, went to ITU yesterday. Today, we saw another 40 year old who is on the brink and will no doubt end up there by the time I return to work on Tuesday. I was speaking with my consultant today and we both randomly noticed that the average age of those who are incredibly sick right now has definitely shifted towards the younger generation. A few months back, I'd say the "sickest" would be around 70 years of age. Now, it's certainly in the 45-55 range. Easily - and it's frightening. It's just mental to me despite working in Respiratory for the last 5 months how rapid people can deteriorate with it.

I've been on call Christmas Day through till today, so I'm absolutely shattered now.

We are in for a God awful January.

Thanks for all you're doing mate.
 
I asked my wife about this when she got home today. She said they’ve seen the same thing happen here.

A penny for your thoughts on why that’s happening...

So I initially thought it may be related to this new strain that we hear about. Numbers are rising with Wales being the second worst hit country in the world from what I saw (per capita) for COVID cases. Not only did I think that the new strain meant it was easier transmittable but I also thought that people become a lot more unwell with it too.

Now, I think the latter point is probably not the case. I think seeing how things have escalated in recent weeks just gives an illusion that there must be something else driving this. But when I’ve been seeing these patients, practically all of them become “very unwell and need hospital admission” around day 7-10. That’s still a key time frame that we use. This is when oxygenation failure typically is seen.

I admittedly haven’t looked into the science behind the new strain because I’ve been too busy and frankly didn’t want to look at the word COVID after doing my shifts. I heard that it is apparently easier transmittable from someone but not sure what evidence they had.

I think the rise is a combination of people not giving a shit anymore and Wales having tight nit families and communities which mean it’s very easy to spread. But I’m actually not sure to be honest.

just amazes me the shift in age we’re seeing


Why would boxing day be one of the busiest due to covid? All of these people got suddenly ill on the same day? This doesn't mean much apart from the fact people were extra fearful and cautious and phoned the ambulance service rather than delaying.

Christmas Day was predominantly quiet during my on call. Boxing Day and yesterday was filled with people who basically didn’t want to come to hospital on Christmas Day. As part of my history taking, I always try to see the difference in their illness to decide why they presented on that day and not a day or two beforehand. Practically all of them, apart from the ridiculously sick ones, just admitted that they tried to hold out till Boxing Day

At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if there's no lockdown. Anyone else feel that way?

How come you think that? I think Wales certainly needs a full lockdown.
 
Well, the fact that these skiers went from the UK at a time when things were getting so bad and then skipped quarantine shows they're not bothered about anyone else. I hope they get fined by the Swiss, the authorities have all their details.
First thing I thought when I heard this on the news this morning was 'Why the hell are you at a Swiss ski resort' seeing a lot of the cases started at ski resorts in the first place. Some of them might be spreading it far and wide now. Absolute idiots. Stick them in quarantine for 12 months.
 
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The first people in my family have it (my dad and step-mum). Mild symptoms but still a worry given they're mid 60s.

They've both been about as conscientious as possible but still picked it up somehow.
 
So I initially thought it may be related to this new strain that we hear about. Numbers are rising with Wales being the second worst hit country in the world from what I saw (per capita) for COVID cases. Not only did I think that the new strain meant it was easier transmittable but I also thought that people become a lot more unwell with it too.

Now, I think the latter point is probably not the case. I think seeing how things have escalated in recent weeks just gives an illusion that there must be something else driving this. But when I’ve been seeing these patients, practically all of them become “very unwell and need hospital admission” around day 7-10. That’s still a key time frame that we use. This is when oxygenation failure typically is seen.

I admittedly haven’t looked into the science behind the new strain because I’ve been too busy and frankly didn’t want to look at the word COVID after doing my shifts. I heard that it is apparently easier transmittable from someone but not sure what evidence they had.

I think the rise is a combination of people not giving a shit anymore and Wales having tight nit families and communities which mean it’s very easy to spread. But I’m actually not sure to be honest.

just amazes me the shift in age we’re seeing




Christmas Day was predominantly quiet during my on call. Boxing Day and yesterday was filled with people who basically didn’t want to come to hospital on Christmas Day. As part of my history taking, I always try to see the difference in their illness to decide why they presented on that day and not a day or two beforehand. Practically all of them, apart from the ridiculously sick ones, just admitted that they tried to hold out till Boxing Day



How come you think that? I think Wales certainly needs a full lockdown.
Like England specifically I'm talking. It seems they're trying to put it off for as long as they can, especially with the school kids going back. If it happens maybe it'll be mid jan, but for now I just get the feeling they're trying to hold it off. Does it appear that way to you?
 
Do you think they're trying to delay it for as long as it can be avoided by them?
Yeah. I think they have a number for each area that they're waiting for it to hit before tier 4 comes in.

All the scientists are calling for nationwide measures so the next time they have a meeting I think that's what will be proposed but it will get turned down in favour of tier 4.
 
At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if there's no lockdown. Anyone else feel that way?

I was expecting it to be announced today starting tomorrow or 30th.

Dickhead is probably waiting for Brexit deal to get the green light on Wednesday, take in the glory, and then do it.
 
Rumours swirling on online (Whitehall source according to the Express, I know..) that a Tier 5 is being considered. No info as to what it could be, I'd guess the same as the original lockdown.
 
I was expecting it to be announced today starting tomorrow or 30th.

Dickhead is probably waiting for Brexit deal to get the green light on Wednesday, take in the glory, and then do it.
I think that's probably right. Use Brexit to take the sharp end of it off. Use a 'positive' to counteract the negative.
 
Rumours swirling on online (Whitehall source according to the Express, I know..) that a Tier 5 is being considered. No info as to what it could be, I'd guess the same as the original lockdown.

Is Tier 4 not already that? Surely at some point they're going to have to accept that the only times the virus has been controlled was during times which students weren't in school.
 
Is Tier 4 not already that? Surely at some point they're going to have to accept that the only times the virus has been controlled was during times which students weren't in school.

No, Tier 4 shuts down non essential retail and gyms, but schools stay open - I believe
 
Maybe I’m being far too judgemental but stories about the “UK variant” popping up all over Europe - after British tourists infect locals - are seriously boiling my piss. People going on holiday. In the middle of a fecking pandemic. What the hell?!

Are any of you planning holidays in the next few weeks? Do you know anyone? Is this normal behaviour in the UK?

Honestly don’t know a single person who’s been on a holiday abroad over the few months. It seems the absolute height of entitled selfishness.

It depends what you define as a holiday but I was one of the c. 5m that flew through Heathrow's airport in Q3.

The transportation can easily be defined as an unnecessary risk, but everything still points to it being relatively low risk. There have been disproportionately few incidents on planes and airports are still at such a low capacity that social distancing just isn't difficult, while mask-wearing is well-enforced. After that point, I took fewer risks than the average person in the UK on an average day, I believe.

Much more time spent outdoors in wide open spaces with a much sparser population and lower levels of community infection. If you go to a supermarket in the UK you will come across many more people, and spend longer there. That's just how the society and environment is structured. Indoors is a safe haven from the cold in these times and lots of people like to linger around these expansive indoor areas. And for most of the time I was away, I was more likely to get infected in a supermarket at home. And I was more likely to spread that to my family at home, rather than containing it to just myself in my apartment abroad. I was really uncomfortable with the idea of living in a multi-generational household and spreading it to someone at much more risk than me.

The question really hinges on what kind of lifestyle you believe the average person in the UK has lived during the pandemic. Have people avoided taking all unnecessary risks, all the time? Some in this thread have, but many of those who have chosen to live like hermits also face much more severe personal risks. I would imagine they're the minority in this thread and in the society.

There are very few people I know of all age ranges that have avoided seeing their friends and family all the time. Most of them did it in controlled scenarios, and when they didn't they tried to minimise risks, and overall they cut back massively. But the reality is they did it sometimes, and that infrequent household mixing is riskier than anything about my "holiday". Are some unnecessary risks involved in taking kids to play sports? A lot of people would say yes. How many people went out to indoor restaurants? Even just in that period of eat out to help out, 160m meals suggests a good chunk of society went at least once, and many went multiple times. How many people have went to their local to "support the local economy"? I decided to skip out on those unnecessary risks, to go for months without seeing friends and family, in exchange for some other unnecessary risks. If I was home I would have seen my friends and family. Not all the time, but enough to create additional risks. That's just the reality.

I don't think it is necessary for individuals to choose to live like hermits during a pandemic. I think it's ok that people take their kids to play sports, take their wife to a restaurant, or meet a friend at a distance on the golf course. You can clearly argue they are not necessary, and they come with some degree of risk that's difficult to determine. They do provide something valuable though, it is important to take care of the mental health of yourself and your immediate family. For some people, the fear of covid is so great that doing any of these things is so anxiety-inducing that they are taking care of their mental health by not exposing themselves to that risk. For others, the cabin fever is so great that they need some outlet to prevent some severe consequences.

It doesn't bother me at all that people judge my actions harshly. Personally I think if people applied those same set of standards - with objective data, not subjective judgments - to all of their actions, they would have some difficulty squaring up their beliefs and their actions. Judgment has its role in society but there is a good reason why we suspend judgment in many scenarios.

I would say the ski resort case was a special case. They were going into a situation that was IMO unnecessarily high risk, and they were obliged to follow the rules to manage the risks as they grew. They chose not to. To me that's reckless and dangerous and it should come with some kind of punishment. The rules I was obliged to follow was a period of extended self-isolation that was personally quite challenging. But that's the trade-off I agreed to from the outset. Choosing to take your cake and eat it is both selfish and stupid.
 
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No, Tier 4 shuts down non essential retail and gyms, but schools stay open - I believe

So Tier 5 would include schools? You can't close schools in some areas and not others then demand all year 11s sit exams in the summer, for instance.
 
It depends what you define as a holiday but I was one of the c. 5m that flew through Heathrow's airport in Q3.

The transportation can easily be defined as an unnecessary risk, but everything still points to it being relatively low risk. There have been disproportionately few incidents on planes and airports are still at such a low capacity that social distancing just isn't difficult, while mask-wearing is well-enforced. After that point, I took fewer risks than the average person in the UK on an average day, I believe.

Much more time spent outdoors in wide open spaces with a much sparser population and lower levels of community infection. If you go to a supermarket in the UK you will come across many more people, and spend longer there. That's just how the society and environment is structured. Indoors is a safe haven from the cold in these times and lots of people like to linger around these expansive indoor areas. And for most of the time I was away, I was more likely to get infected in a supermarket at home. And I was more likely to spread that to my family at home, rather than containing it to just myself in my apartment abroad. I was really uncomfortable with the idea of living in a multi-generational household and spreading it to someone at much more risk than me.

The question really hinges on what kind of lifestyle you believe the average person in the UK has lived during the pandemic. Have people avoided taking all unnecessary risks, all the time? Some in this thread have, but many of those who have chosen to live like hermits also face much more severe personal risks. I would imagine they're the minority in this thread and in the society.

There are very few people I know of all age ranges that have avoided seeing their friends and family all the time. Most of them did it in controlled scenarios, and when they didn't they tried to minimise risks, and overall they cut back massively. But the reality is they did it sometimes, and that infrequent household mixing is riskier than anything about my "holiday". Are some unnecessary risks involved in taking kids to play sports? A lot of people would say yes. How many people went out to indoor restaurants? Even just in that period of eat out to help out, 160m meals suggests a good chunk of society went at least once, and many went multiple times. How many people have went to their local to "support the local economy"? I decided to skip out on those unnecessary risks, to go for months without seeing friends and family, in exchange for some other unnecessary risks. If I was home I would have seen my friends and family. Not all the time, but enough to create additional risks. That's just the reality.

I don't think it is necessary for individuals to choose to live like hermits during a pandemic. I think it's ok that people take their kids to play sports, take their wife to a restaurant, or meet a friend at a distance on the golf course. You can clearly argue they are not necessary, and they come with some degree of risk that's difficult to determine. They do provide something valuable though, it is important to take care of the mental health of yourself and your immediate family. For some people, the fear of covid is so great that doing any of these things is so anxiety-inducing that they are taking care of their mental health by not exposing themselves to that risk. For others, the cabin fever is so great that they need some outlet to prevent some severe consequences.

It doesn't bother me at all that people judge my actions harshly. Personally I think if people applied those same set of standards - with objective data, not subjective judgments - to all of their actions, they would have some difficulty squaring up their beliefs and their actions. Judgment has its role in society but there is a good reason why we suspend judgment in many scenarios.

I would say the ski resort case was a special case. They were going into a situation that was IMO unnecessarily high risk, and they were obliged to follow the rules to manage the risks as they grew. They chose not to. To me that's reckless and dangerous and it should come with some kind of punishment. The rules I was obliged to follow was a period of extended self-isolation that was personally quite challenging. But that's the trade-off I agreed to from the outset. Choosing to take your cake and eat it is both selfish and stupid.

My issue with the holiday makers is about exactly what happened. Taking a new variant/strain to an area of the world it wouldn’t have reached otherwise. Without these tourists it’s possible the “UK variant” could have been confined to the Uk. Now it could potentially become the dominant strain all over Europe/the world. And all because people thought it was a good idea to take a holiday during a pandemic. Which doesn’t make sense to me at all.

I agree with you that we can’t live like complete hermits or we’ll go mad. Some travel and socialising is essential to keep us sane. But this should really all be done locally.

Obviously we’re all doing our best in a truly shit situation and none of us is perfect but I can’t get my head around unnecessary travel to another country in the current circumstances.
 
So Tier 5 would include schools? You can't close schools in some areas and not others then demand all year 11s sit exams in the summer, for instance.

MASSIVE IF as its just rumours circulating, but T5 would include educational settings closing.
 
My issue with the holiday makers is about exactly what happened. Taking a new variant/strain to an area of the world it wouldn’t have reached otherwise. Without these tourists it’s possible the “UK variant” could have been confined to the Uk. Now it could potentially become the dominant strain all over Europe/the world. And all because people thought it was a good idea to take a holiday during a pandemic. Which doesn’t make sense to me at all.

I agree with you that we can’t live like complete hermits or we’ll go mad. Some travel and socialising is essential to keep us sane. But this should really all be done locally.

Obviously we’re all doing our best in a truly shit situation and none of us is perfect but I can’t get my head around unnecessary travel to another country in the current circumstances.

Fair points and I agree but on the flip side, tourism/airline industries in even more trouble, and excuses made eg business trips, freedom, all we have to look forward to blah blah....majority privileges and that
 
Fair points and I agree but on the flip side, tourism/airline industries in even more trouble, and excuses made eg business trips, freedom, all we have to look forward to blah blah....majority privileges and that
Yeah but, the virus first came into the U.K. from people on skiing trips. I can’t fathom people going to those resorts in the midst of climbing numbers