SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Italy is toying with the idea of reintroducing restrictions in some regions, including ours. We haven't had any "grand opening" here, as it's all been done at a regional level for the duration of the pandemic.

The only thing I don't want them to bring back is mask-wearing outside, which is awful in hot weather.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Been on the rise for a while now. Only real surprise is how it took this long to go exponential. As far as this fecking pandemic goes, where the Uk leads we follow.
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We’ll U.K. are something like 45k per day which is nuts so let’s hope you’re wrong
 
Martial'sEmergingSmile said:
I was checking the UK stats and saw Northern Ireland had 1,083 cases today. Seems crazy high given they have about 1/3 the population of Ireland.
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It was the same way with previous surges. Followed by inevitable overflow into all the border counties. Kind of makes a mockery of our efforts to keep numbers down when they’re off the charts the far side of a basically nonexistent border.
 
TheGame said:
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So, 48k new infections, with deaths and hospitalisations rising.
Next week restrictions will be eased further.
IMO, restrictions should be kept the same or tightened.
I am 99% sure that we are heading for another lockdown...probably in August and that lockdown could be staved off, if we don't ease restrictions further.
 
Are there any statistics to show what % of deaths are vaccinated persons?

I'm assuming it's mostly the unvaccinated that are passing away, I can't see how else the opening is justified.
 
How bad an idea is it to head to London this weekend? The trip was booked a month or so ago but the rising number of cases has spooked me a bit. I would be avoiding pubs and restaurants and probably just do some touristy things such as the museums and art galleries. I'm in my late 20s and have had one dose of Pfizer with my second due next week. Obviously not in the vulnerable category but still would rather not be exposed to it before I have been fully vaccinated.
 
Got my positive test today. Had symptoms for 3 days now. The lateral flow tests all came back negative which is worrying but the PCR I took yesterday said positive. Had one vaccine so far, in my mid 20s. Just feels like a very mild cold so far, so I’ve been lucky. Hopefully stays this way.
 
WR said:
Got my positive test today. Had symptoms for 3 days now. The lateral flow tests all came back negative which is worrying but the PCR I took yesterday said positive. Had one vaccine so far, in my mid 20s. Just feels like a very mild cold so far, so I’ve been lucky. Hopefully stays this way.
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It’s worrying how many people have symptoms and just do one lateral flow test, then carry on like normal once it comes back negative. I wonder if they do more harm than good in the long run.
 
Dan_F said:
It’s worrying how many people have symptoms and just do one lateral flow test, then carry on like normal once it comes back negative. I wonder if they do more harm than good in the long run.
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They’ve been massively controversial in Ireland. Our advisory body have consistently pushed back against them for exactly the reason you mention. Which a whole load of very smart people don’t seem to want to accept is a risk at all.
 
Stringer said:
How bad an idea is it to head to London this weekend? The trip was booked a month or so ago but the rising number of cases has spooked me a bit. I would be avoiding pubs and restaurants and probably just do some touristy things such as the museums and art galleries. I'm in my late 20s and have had one dose of Pfizer with my second due next week. Obviously not in the vulnerable category but still would rather not be exposed to it before I have been fully vaccinated.
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Just been as a visitor. The underground is crowded and not nice, but then again an awful lot of London is in walking distance. The museums are very quiet, especially at opening time, but that's always the best time anyway. Visit early, do the parks and riverside afterwards. The amazing thing is the people, so friendly, without all the tourists they've turned into normal human beings. All in all a good time to visit.
 
711 said:
Just been as a visitor. The underground is crowded and not nice, but then again an awful lot of London is in walking distance. The museums are very quiet, especially at opening time, but that's always the best time anyway. Visit early, do the parks and riverside afterwards. The amazing thing is the people, so friendly, without all the tourists they've turned into normal human beings. All in all a good time to visit.
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Cheers for the info. I will take the risk then and avoid the tube as much as possible.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


@massi83

My fellow scaremonger, Prof Pagel, is also going for an optimistic take on that paper we were discussing earlier ;)
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I am not sure of the importance of this. Probably something I am not understanding. Isn't the only difference that instead of becoming infectious after 6 days previously, now it is 4 days (in addition to higher r0). So if you make a policy change, like she says, it affects on average 2 days quicker. But when doubling times in most places are around 2 weeks, 2 days seems inconsequential, and there is ample time to react anyways. Unless you do a De Ligt and 8x cases in a week. But as I said probably something I am missing, and just glanced at the actual paper in question.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
@Wibble

This is what I was getting at in the earlier discussion.

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See he calculates it as 98% or herd immunity through vaccinations not even possible now...good luck to the government explaining that to the general public. :lol:. Has to be throwing the kitchen sink from his b and c options and crossing many fingers the outcome isn't too bad.

So let's say Delta hadn't emerged...would we be on very comfortable path now (despite the panic over the South African and Kent variants last December/January when vaxx roll out was in very early stages).
 
So Chris Whitty says that a new lockdown is likely because of the sky high rate of infections from under 20's.

Hmmmmm, I wonder what has caused this and how it wasn't foreseen from happening............?

Also, those fully vaccinated with Oxford jabs, 3 times more likely to catch covid again over Pfizer.

Infection rates going up like crazy as are deaths including amongst fully vaccinated people and the governments response is, drop your masks (and trousers if an MP) and open up everything and let the fittest survive and sod the rest.
 
Stringer said:
How bad an idea is it to head to London this weekend? The trip was booked a month or so ago but the rising number of cases has spooked me a bit. I would be avoiding pubs and restaurants and probably just do some touristy things such as the museums and art galleries. I'm in my late 20s and have had one dose of Pfizer with my second due next week. Obviously not in the vulnerable category but still would rather not be exposed to it before I have been fully vaccinated.
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It's a risk. Small risk. But bigger than staying at home.

The delta variant is wreaking havoc in indonesia. The alpha variant is mostly subdued by the early vaccine.

Your vaccine is like wearing a helmet, helps prefent death in the event of accident but hardly a guarantee.

But then again. Life must go on. Just know the risk and that it's never 100% safe regardless of what the government says
 
just saw that in America as they also unlock more, the rates are going sky high again.

Seems that in many places around the world, the aim is to unlock despite huge increases in infections.

Also a large number of people with two jabs are getting covid & it's happening worldwide.

Also reported is that people who haven't had any jabs but have had covid at some stage are choosing not to get jabs.

I have to say that after my first jab, I felt not great for 3 days.

My second jab around 3 weeks now, I've felt very poorly since I've received it.

Both Oxford.
 
LA county is reinstating mask policies when you're indoors. Obviously nobody enforces it, except the companies, so you're probably on your own.

Delta variant is spreading in CA and positive rates are increasing week by week. From the 10s to the hundreds. Also additional hospitalizations and deaths.

This surge was always coming via the delta variant, summer holidays, fewer to zero restrictions, and the total blending of the vaccinated and non-vacinated of all age groups/demographics.
 
Dumb questions incoming. Apologies in advance.

Im watching infection cases rise pretty quickly in the UK. I havent yet seen death rates rise anywhere near as quickly.
Given that a decent chunk of the UK population has been vaccinated and a nice majority of the elderly of the population have been vaccinated (all my relatives in Scotland included) do people think that this flare up will subside once it works its way through the population by xmas? Are those being infected, the unvaccinated or the younger generations and is the low death rate related to this?
 
Stack said:
Dumb questions incoming. Apologies in advance.

Im watching infection cases rise pretty quickly in the UK. I havent yet seen death rates rise anywhere near as quickly.
Given that a decent chunk of the UK population has been vaccinated and a nice majority of the elderly of the population have been vaccinated (all my relatives in Scotland included) do people think that this flare up will subside once it works its way through the population by xmas? Are those being infected, the unvaccinated or the younger generations and is the low death rate related to this?
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Deaths lag behind infections but given the high level of at least partial vaccination you would expect hospitaliations and ICU admissions (and then deaths) to lag more than before and peak at a much lower percentage of infections than before, despite it now being primarily the Delta variant. Nearly 50k infections a day is however worrying.
 
Here in Chile, things are finally going wonderous.

So far, 76.21% of the target population fully vaccinated. 85.11% vaccinated with at least one shot.

Nationwide cases positivity: 3,3%. Lowest since the beginning of the pandemic.

-40% in active cases in the last 2 weeks. -29% in the last week.

ICU occupancy at its lowest in a long long time.

Also, the results from a 6 month study of the Sinovac (the most used in Chile) vaccine has just been published.

Out of the 2300 participants, only 45 have contracted covid. Of those, only 3 needed to be hospitalized. No deaths.

Lowest count of antibodies after 6 months, so a 3rd vaccination is being recommended.
 
Penna said:
Italy is toying with the idea of reintroducing restrictions in some regions, including ours. We haven't had any "grand opening" here, as it's all been done at a regional level for the duration of the pandemic.

The only thing I don't want them to bring back is mask-wearing outside, which is awful in hot weather.
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There is a lot of talk about using the vaccine passport to implement the restrictions, so they would only apply to the unvaccinated and for everybody else life can go on as normal. That makes a lot of sense and there are a lot of people here who haven't had the vaccine, including over 2 million over 60s.
 
choccy77 said:
just saw that in America as they also unlock more, the rates are going sky high again.

Seems that in many places around the world, the aim is to unlock despite huge increases in infections.

Also a large number of people with two jabs are getting covid & it's happening worldwide.

Also reported is that people who haven't had any jabs but have had covid at some stage are choosing not to get jabs.

I have to say that after my first jab, I felt not great for 3 days.

My second jab around 3 weeks now, I've felt very poorly since I've received it.

Both Oxford.
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more fool them
 
George Owen said:
Here in Chile, things are finally going wonderous.

So far, 76.21% of the target population fully vaccinated. 85.11% vaccinated with at least one shot.

Nationwide cases positivity: 3,3%. Lowest since the beginning of the pandemic.

-40% in active cases in the last 2 weeks. -29% in the last week.

ICU occupancy at its lowest in a long long time.

Also, the results from a 6 month study of the Sinovac (the most used in Chile) vaccine has just been published.

Out of the 2300 participants, only 45 have contracted covid. Of those, only 3 needed to be hospitalized. No deaths.

Lowest count of antibodies after 6 months, so a 3rd vaccination is being recommended.
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You’d do well keeping all flights out for now. Everywhere else going nuts
 
George Owen said:
Here in Chile, things are finally going wonderous.

So far, 76.21% of the target population fully vaccinated. 85.11% vaccinated with at least one shot.

Nationwide cases positivity: 3,3%. Lowest since the beginning of the pandemic.

-40% in active cases in the last 2 weeks. -29% in the last week.

ICU occupancy at its lowest in a long long time.

Also, the results from a 6 month study of the Sinovac (the most used in Chile) vaccine has just been published.

Out of the 2300 participants, only 45 have contracted covid. Of those, only 3 needed to be hospitalized. No deaths.

Lowest count of antibodies after 6 months, so a 3rd vaccination is being recommended.
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Good news. What variants have you been dealing with in Chile?
 
Just got out of a meeting this morning in work (I'm an NHS manager in NI) - the Trust I work in are now basically trying to prepare staff for a third wave in August. We are all being asked to start doing Lateral Flow Tests twice weekly. The feedback from the hospitals here is that there has been a large rise in younger women becoming extremely ill and requiring ICU support - including pregnant women who are requiring emergency C-Sections to save them and their baby. It's getting very scary again here and the staff are all about ready to collapse (in fact where I work we have one team basically completely wiped out due to stress sickness and it now needs covered by the other teams all of which have at least 2 staff members out also). It's really grim and I've never seen it so bad here.
 
balaks said:
Just got out of a meeting this morning in work (I'm an NHS manager in NI) - the Trust I work in are now basically trying to prepare staff for a third wave in August. We are all being asked to start doing Lateral Flow Tests twice weekly. The feedback from the hospitals here is that there has been a large rise in younger women becoming extremely ill and requiring ICU support - including pregnant women who are requiring emergency C-Sections to save them and their baby. It's getting very scary again here and the staff are all about ready to collapse (in fact where I work we have one team basically completely wiped out due to stress sickness and it now needs covered by the other teams all of which have at least 2 staff members out also). It's really grim and I've never seen it so bad here.
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My fiancée is an obs and gynae Dr.
She was saying something along these lines yesterday (I think; she was speaking on the phone, I was trying to sign Mbappe on Football Manager). Anecdotally there’s a a lot of pregnant women who are unvaccinated due to being pregnant since late last year, who are catching Covid late in pregnancy and then getting pretty severely ill from it now, as they’re in the late stages of pregnancy.
 
Stringer said:
How bad an idea is it to head to London this weekend? The trip was booked a month or so ago but the rising number of cases has spooked me a bit. I would be avoiding pubs and restaurants and probably just do some touristy things such as the museums and art galleries. I'm in my late 20s and have had one dose of Pfizer with my second due next week. Obviously not in the vulnerable category but still would rather not be exposed to it before I have been fully vaccinated.
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You’ll be fine. The sun will be out so avoid the tube altogether. Sign up for the Cycle hire and just ride everywhere. London is a great City to cycle in and it’s cycle hire system is among the best in the world.

I’d be inclined to visit the smaller (and better) museums as the big ticket ones are all in tourist hot spots. There’s no real need to go there and you can have a better time without doing so. Happy to provide a few recommendations if you want them. Just let me know what you’re interested in.
 
gormless said:
My fiancée is an obs and gynae Dr.
She was saying something along these lines yesterday (I think; she was speaking on the phone, I was trying to sign Mbappe on Football Manager). Anecdotally there’s a a lot of pregnant women who are unvaccinated due to being pregnant since late last year, who are catching Covid late in pregnancy and then getting pretty severely ill from it now, as they’re in the late stages of pregnancy.
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That is exactly what's happening here yeah.
 
gormless said:
My fiancée is an obs and gynae Dr.
She was saying something along these lines yesterday (I think; she was speaking on the phone, I was trying to sign Mbappe on Football Manager). Anecdotally there’s a a lot of pregnant women who are unvaccinated due to being pregnant since late last year, who are catching Covid late in pregnancy and then getting pretty severely ill from it now, as they’re in the late stages of pregnancy.
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I think it's safe for pregnant women to get the vaccine now though.
 
If we did have to go back into some kind of Covid restrictions, what then would be the plan going forward?

Which pretty much all of those over 40’s will to have the vaccination, fully vaccinated and all the adult under 40 willing at lease has 1 jab.

surely it would basically be saying that the vaccines arn’t enough?
 
Nytram Shakes said:
If we did have to go back into some kind of Covid restrictions, what then would be the plan going forward?

Which pretty much all of those over 40’s will to have the vaccination, fully vaccinated and all the adult under 40 willing at lease has 1 jab.

surely it would basically be saying that the vaccines arn’t enough?
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Nobody really knows, the problem with the UK approach is that it defies all logic. Opening everything up and advocating for getting rid of the use of masks and the 2 meter rule while cases increase exponentially simply makes no sense. There's living with Covid and there's letting it run riot!
 
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