SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

It is the very best strategy until the population is hugely vaccinated. I'd hate to get to the place much of the world is were hundreds of deaths a day are considered acceptable.

I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.
 
Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.
The borders arent closed indefinitely. There was a recent plan announced on the reopening of the borders. The current lockdown is the first in 7 months. We have been slow in the vaccination process and that could definitely have been better. Our long term strategy revolves around opening up once the majority of our population is vaccinated, sometime around December. First we will let in more essential workers, then foreign students and then tourists from preferred countries. We also have a plan to allow citizens who go overseas on holiday to self quarantine at home if fully vaccinated when returning. We are just doing things a little slower than everywhere else because we got lucky with certain factors.
 
I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Latvia, Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

All the reporting from the UK seems to make zero fuss about well over 100 deaths per day. We are just over a third of the population of the UK and 40+ deaths per day would be considered almost a national disaster. Our worst day was 20% of that and it is usually 5% and that is often headline creating stuff.
You are bound to have deaths after you finally open up even after mass vaccination but it won't be anywhere near the death toll elsewhere.

No way will we totally open up even when we reach 80% of adults vaccinated either. Vaccinated Aussies will be able to travel more easily but quarantine won't go away quickly and interstate travel may well remain restricted to a degree.
 
Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.
They've got a strategy. Vaccinate everyone who wants it with Pfizer in the next few months. They should be getting supplies in time to meet that schedule. Meanwhile they'll try minimising loss of life and then reopen everything again (internally).

It's going to be tough for NZ to adapt to the idea of acceptable case rates and deaths, but they've shown a lot of unity so far. Hopefully they'll be able to maintain that once borders reopen and outbreaks can't be so really controlled.
 
I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

I may be misunderstanding what you meant but influenza deaths in the UK are way above 100? Deaths involving flu are normally in the 20,000 to 25,000 range and just from influenza between 1,000 and 1,500 per year.

Edit - I guess you mean per day, but then 100 seems slightly on the high side, but probably about right during the winter months.
 
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I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.
I don't like us being compared to NZ. Zero Covid is impossible when you share an open border with a country that probably handled Covid worse than anyone. If we had taken an all island approach then maybe, but even then, we are so interconnected with the UK that it would have been impossible.

I don't think we did a bad job anyway, our death rate per capita was relatively low. We made a balls of Christmas and nursing homes like many and some of our lockdowns were excessively long (but you could blame that on our terrible healthcare system as much as the government). We've also had a pretty incredible vaccine rollout.
 
Erm????
images


If serious what are you on about?

Population: 5 million
Cases: 1 person ( the 1st case in 6 months)
The last Covid death: 13 February
Outcome: nationwide lockdown
Comment: very proportionate and sensible policy (not sure if I am serious here)

New Zealand have a grand total of 26 deaths during the 18 months of pandemic, the UK had 170 yesterday alone.

In the last 18 months, New Zealand has been running pretty much business as usual internally with very few lock downs, mass gatherings allowed - sporting events, music events, you name it.

Locking down hard and early breaks the chain and means you don’t end up locking down for months on end.

Thanks for the information
 
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The only major criticism you could make of NZ is they didn't order enough vaccine early enough. With Australia you can add not locking down NSW hard enough 7 week ago.

That said any chance of me ever leaving Australia (or possibly NZ) has now gone as I now don't trust anywhere else will keep me safe next time there is a pandemic. And there may well be a next time.

Well that's one part of it.

What are they going to do when they reach (lets say) 80% vaccinated. The remaining 1 million people either can't or won't get vaccinated. They can't keep the borders closed forever and they can't keep locking everything down every time there is an outbreak, so eventually those people will all catch Covid one way or another with zero existing immunity. That's going to be a lot of cases and a lot of deaths for a country with no experience in handling them. The hospitals haven't seen major outbreaks and the government doesn't know what control measures work.

When this is all going on the rest of the developed world will have been back to normal for months if not years.

Their strategy was based on the assumption that if they kept Covid out, they could wait for it to be eradicated somehow. Now we know that's not going to be possible.
 
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What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail
 
Population: 5 million
Cases: 1 person ( the 1st case in 6 months)
The last Covid death: 13 February
Outcome: nationwide lockdown
Comment: very proportionate and sensible policy (not sure if I am serious here)

The lack of deaths and cases is precisely because they locked down fast and hard. They have then largely been free of covid and lockdowns.
 
What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail

On no. Those evil tyrants trying to encourage people to take a sensible health measure to protect health, lives and the economy. Where will the horror end?
 
The only major criticism you could make of NZ is they didn't order enough vaccine early enough. With Australia you can add not locking down NSW hard enough 7 week ago.

That said any chance of me ever leaving Australia (or possibly NZ) has now gone as I now don't trust anywhere else will keep me safe next time there is a pandemic. And there may well be a next time.

I think unfortunately Australia have let Delta get too much of a foothold. It’s very different to past variants and you guys may be in for a rough time
 
Well that's one part of it.

What are they going to do when they reach (lets say) 80% vaccinated. The remaining 1 million people either can't or won't get vaccinated. They can't keep the borders closed forever and they can't keep locking everything down every time there is an outbreak, so eventually those people will all catch Covid one way or another with zero existing immunity. That's going to be a lot of cases and a lot of deaths for a country with no experience in handling them. The hospitals haven't seen major outbreaks and the government doesn't know what control measures work.

When this is all going on the rest of the developed world will have been back to normal for months if not years.

Their strategy was based on the assumption that if they kept Covid out, they could wait for it to be eradicated somehow. Now we know that's not going to be possible.

We will unlock gradually after that and I'd guess adjust accordingly to case numbers. I'd guess 3-500 cases a day might just be considered acceptable but hospitalisation/ICU/ventilated numbers may be more important. Hopefully by then we can vaccinate virtually all kids and get up to 90% of the whole population which might just reach HIT but more like means we can actually start to treat it like we do influenza.
 
I think unfortunately Australia have let Delta get too much of a foothold. It’s very different to past variants and you guys may be in for a rough time

It is more than possible that Gladys shit the bed when she refused to lock down properly 7 weeks ago. I'd guess we will reach vaccination targets before NSW would have a chance of eliminating again.
 
I may be misunderstanding what you meant but influenza deaths in the UK are way above 100? Deaths involving flu are normally in the 20,000 to 25,000 range and just from influenza between 1,000 and 1,500 per year.

Edit - I guess you mean per day, but then 100 seems slightly on the high side, but probably about right during the winter months.

Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with, be it in 5 months or 5 years.
 
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What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail

What were they supposed to do? Wait until there was 100 cases before locking down?
 
What were they supposed to do? Wait until there was 100 cases before locking down?

NZ had an opportunity and took it superbly, so yeah, of course they are bang on to stamp it out until they get to 85%+ vaccinated. Unless of course they end up in months and months of lockdown, but they’ve already proven they can stamp it out in a very short timeframe so they must try and the earlier the better for them.
 
Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with.
We do know that at some point in the near future the virus will rip through the population and those unvaccinated will get hit with it. Someone earlier mentioned a rough 80% vaccination rate leaving 1 million unvaccinated and thats a pretty fair estimate. So we are potentially looking at a decent number of people getting sick and dying from it. However there is a silver lining for us and one where we have got lucky. We have been able to watch what everyone else has done and a lot of our new policy decisions are a direct result of learning from other countries handling of things. If we learn those lessons well enough we have a chance of keeping illnesses and deaths much lower than we initially expected. However its still going to bite us in the arse once it arrives next year.
We have been very lucky so far, I just hope we can adjust the luck side of things to prudent management once we open up.
 
Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with, be it in 5 months or 5 years.

There will also be a fairly substantial overlap between the two as well due to people with existing conditions being particularly vulnerable to both diseases. I agree that we will have to accept that we get a substantial amount of deaths due to Covid going forward like we do with influenza and we will have to wait to see how much they overlap with each other.
 
Ontario has officially reached 75% full-vaccinated status for its 12+ population, even 11-year-olds can get Pfizer starting today. meanwhile, on the same day yesterday, it was announced that all re-opening plans have been put on pause indefinitely and how a 4th wave is coming and we're in for a very difficult "fall and winter" according to the main health advisor of the province.

Canadian external borders are to be opened to foreigners starting Sept. 7, but only those vaccinated with Western-approved big4 vaccines can skip the 14-day quarantine. So much of Asia (Sinopharm), South America & Russia (Sputnik) are still unable to travel technically.

On the other hand, the Federal gov't has called for an election on the first day of fall...

So much mixed messaging, hard to believe who to believe anymore. Headscratcher...


SIDENOTE: Is it me or is it absolutely incredible how Poland has managed to swerve Delta so far? I don't live there anymore, but checking stats, their daily cases has been stable at 100-200 a day for nearly 2 months. All the more incredible considering how many Poles live in the UK and travel back and forth. Even neighbouring Germany (twice as big population) is experiencing thousands of daily cases and there are countless travels from Poland to Germany and back everyday. Has Poland reached total herd immunity ??
 
I wouldn’t believe those polish numbers. I know loads a d they say that anti-vaccine and belief that the virus isn’t real is strong
 
I suspect the good times for NZ are coming to an end, the reality of this Delta variant looks like the elimination policy is no longer viable. If this current lockdown actually succeeds Im betting it will be the last one that works. The race is now on to get as many vaccinated as possible before we finally get swamped by Delta. Looks to me like we have nearly run out of road to kick the can down.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...navirus-elimination-plan-in-the-time-of-delta
 
It depends on whose analysis you read. If you look at some of the interpretations of the early data from Israel, it may be a sign that vaccine efficacy is waning and that people will need boosters soon.

If you look at some of the other interpretations of Israel's vaccine data, you see some problems in their take-up rates. In particular that the over 70s in the UK are 95%+ double vaxxed. In Israel that number is "only" about 85% - which might not sound like a big deal, but actually means they've got at least three times as many people (per 100k population) in the highest hospitalisation/mortality risk groups.

The UK has decided it can cope with more cases, as long as hospitalisations don't rise too high.

Israel hadn't got quite as big an advantage from the vaccines as they'd hoped. Combine that with the vaccines not stopping infection with Delta as well as it stopped Alpha - just a lot more strain than they were expecting.

Incidentally, the UK remains on a tightrope and it's anyone's guess where we'll be once schools/colleges reopen and autumn/winter really kick in. Getting back to normal anywhere is going to be a bumpy ride.
 
The tyranny of the minority. Terrifying...

If there are 3 cases, I guess the solution the local government would propose would be to urge all the population to stay at home 24/24 7/7 and wear a face covering at home, especially when it comes to sleeping...

Interesting. So, just out of curiosity, what would be an acceptable number of cases and innocent deaths for you before you'd be willing to accept a lockdown? Because if freedom of the people is what you're worried about then you'll be very impressed to learn that, thanks to NZ's quick and decisive actions, we've had far more freedom and than pretty much the entirety of the world put together given that the cumulative length of our LDs so far have reached a total of 2 weeks. You know, since our leaders are acting quickly and decisively and listening to science and not weird, misplaced hysteria.
 
It depends on whose analysis you read. If you look at some of the interpretations of the early data from Israel, it may be a sign that vaccine efficacy is waning and that people will need boosters soon.

If you look at some of the other interpretations of Israel's vaccine data, you see some problems in their take-up rates. In particular that the over 70s in the UK are 95%+ double vaxxed. In Israel that number is "only" about 85% - which might not sound like a big deal, but actually means they've got at least three times as many people (per 100k population) in the highest hospitalisation/mortality risk groups.

The UK has decided it can cope with more cases, as long as hospitalisations don't rise too high.

Israel hadn't got quite as big an advantage from the vaccines as they'd hoped. Combine that with the vaccines not stopping infection with Delta as well as it stopped Alpha - just a lot more strain than they were expecting.

Incidentally, the UK remains on a tightrope and it's anyone's guess where we'll be once schools/colleges reopen and autumn/winter really kick in. Getting back to normal anywhere is going to be a bumpy ride.

In regards to the analysis you you mentioned in regards to Israel. A Pre Paper of Israel’s Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS) did a study about the vaccin efficiency in regards to the hypothesis of a decreasing protection. It is interesting insight for more information about the situation in Israel

‘Quote’
To this end, we conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence rates of breakthrough infections between early and late vaccinees, using data from Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), Israel's second largest Health Maintenance Organization, which covers 2.5 million members (25% of the population) and provides a representative sample of the Israeli population.


‘Taken together, the study suggests a possible relative decrease in the long-term protection of the BNT162b2 vaccine against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. This preliminary finding should be evaluated in future studies, including a comparison to long-term protection against different strains, and prospective clinical trials to examine the effect of a booster vaccine against breakthrough infection.

full study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317v1.full.pdf

the vaccines are doing an important service in decreasing death and severe hospitalization. Surges will almost be unavoidable, considering factors as effciancy waning, immune evasion of variants etc. The more data available the better comparison and studies can be done for further improvement. It will be a bumpy ride, I don’t think nobody expected a walk in the park in regards to the public health strategy.
 
Eating disorders in youths highest since records began? Up 300-400% in UK; reporting on it now on beeb breakfast.
Gonna be more and more grim figures as time passes and the full effect of the last 16 months on youths is realised I’d imagine :(
 
It seems like there's going to a bit of a spike in cases from the Boardmasters festival in Cornwall. Very much concentrated in the young, so hopefully a temporary glitch.

 
It seems like there's going to a bit of a spike in cases from the Boardmasters festival in Cornwall. Very much concentrated in the young, so hopefully a temporary glitch.



A group of friends went and one of them thinks she has covid now. Seems like it might have been a bit of a super spreader event.


Didn’t Cornwall have another random spike out of nowhere a month or two ago?

G7 summit in St Ives. They’d love you to think it was “random” but it was without any doubt down to that.
 
It's really interesting reading posts from people in Aus/NZ from a UK perspective.

Locking down due to one case seems absolutely insane/tyrannical - although I'm more than aware that we have been dealing with our (more than) fair share of insanity from a gov management perspective here over the virus.

What I am interested in hearing, however, from posters in that part of the world is - even with a strong vaccine roll-out - what's the expectation? You're always going to have cases as global industries open up, and the most vulnerable to the virus (who have drastic underlying health issues that covid accentuates) are going to remain vulnerable even once vaccinated. So does the current stance last indefinitely even with the vaccine?

Whilst I have huge respect for how NZ in particular handled the initial waves of the virus, perhaps one way in which the UK benefitted from high case/fatality numbers was that it encouraged a very significant uptake of the vaccine amongst the adult population.

Will there be a rush to get the vaccine if you're entering the drive with virtually no trace of the virus domestically?
 
Didn’t Cornwall have another random spike out of nowhere a month or two ago?
They had pretty much missed the whole pandemic last year, so a pretty susceptible population to begin with. Coupled with events with lots of people coming in from elsewhere and some pretty close interactions - g7, this festival - and it all kicks off.
 
It's really interesting reading posts from people in Aus/NZ from a UK perspective.

Locking down due to one case seems absolutely insane/tyrannical - although I'm more than aware that we have been dealing with our (more than) fair share of insanity from a gov management perspective here over the virus.

What I am interested in hearing, however, from posters in that part of the world is - even with a strong vaccine roll-out - what's the expectation? You're always going to have cases as global industries open up, and the most vulnerable to the virus (who have drastic underlying health issues that covid accentuates) are going to remain vulnerable even once vaccinated. So does the current stance last indefinitely even with the vaccine?

Whilst I have huge respect for how NZ in particular handled the initial waves of the virus, perhaps one way in which the UK benefitted from high case/fatality numbers was that it encouraged a very significant uptake of the vaccine amongst the adult population.

Will there be a rush to get the vaccine if you're entering the drive with virtually no trace of the virus domestically?

It's just that the government don't care about how many people die, who died when and where they died either.

I'm currently abroad on holiday and it's illegal to not wear a mask, you have to write your address when you enter a supermarket or shop, they randomly block weeks where you cant leave your city etc.


When I remember how many people didnt wear a mask in England, it reminds you the lack of pressure the Government give - and you kind of wonder why.
 
It's really interesting reading posts from people in Aus/NZ from a UK perspective.

Locking down due to one case seems absolutely insane/tyrannical - although I'm more than aware that we have been dealing with our (more than) fair share of insanity from a gov management perspective here over the virus.

What I am interested in hearing, however, from posters in that part of the world is - even with a strong vaccine roll-out - what's the expectation? You're always going to have cases as global industries open up, and the most vulnerable to the virus (who have drastic underlying health issues that covid accentuates) are going to remain vulnerable even once vaccinated. So does the current stance last indefinitely even with the vaccine?

Whilst I have huge respect for how NZ in particular handled the initial waves of the virus, perhaps one way in which the UK benefitted from high case/fatality numbers was that it encouraged a very significant uptake of the vaccine amongst the adult population.

Will there be a rush to get the vaccine if you're entering the drive with virtually no trace of the virus domestically?
Our slow vaccine uptake hasnt been due to any hesitancy but because the govt didnt approve the pfizer vaccine until Feb and hadnt preordered any meaning we were down the list on the supply line.
The general mood here is the vast majority want to be vaccinated and today the govt approved vaccinations for those 12 and above. The vaccinations have ramped up significantly in recent weeks and we should see the majority of the country vaccinated by December at the latest.
The reason for the locking down over one case was that it was our first case of Delta and we had watched what happened in NSW Australia so the govt decided to act fast. Everyone I know is pretty happy with that approach. It means our lockdown will be shorter and we will be back to work sooner. Im self employed and our quick approach in the past has meant I have lost very little work time in the last year or so. The elimination approach for NZ has worked really well, our economy compared to the rest of the world has done very well, so well the govt has this year had a record tax take.
Expectation here is that next year when we start opening up we will see those not vaccinated get sick and we will try and use the best lessons we see from overseas to manage that eventuality. If for example we hit roughly 80% vaccinated that will still mean 1 million people unvaccinated people. Im expecting to see us have a big surge in illness and deaths etc but I think it will end up being a lot less than if we hadnt gone down this path.
There is no winning with this.
 
If you remove the visible reminders of being in a pandemic, people will be very happy to act as if it's all over.

We had a social dinner (in the open air) in our little village yesterday. About 80 people attended. There was only one way into the square, we had to wear masks until we were seated, we all had our temperature checked, used hand sanitiser and had to show a green pass. Everyone also had to give their name and contact details and sign to say we understood that we could be contacted if someone subsequently became positive.

After that everything went along as normal, but we were all aware that these are different times. I'm all in favour of this kind of approach continuing as long as is necessary.
 
If you remove the visible reminders of being in a pandemic, people will be very happy to act as if it's all over.

We had a social dinner (in the open air) in our little village yesterday. About 80 people attended. There was only one way into the square, we had to wear masks until we were seated, we all had our temperature checked, used hand sanitiser and had to show a green pass. Everyone also had to give their name and contact details and sign to say we understood that we could be contacted if someone subsequently became positive.

After that everything went along as normal, but we were all aware that these are different times. I'm all in favour of this kind of approach continuing as long as is necessary.

And that’s the million dollar question. How long is it necessary? And how do we even define necessary?

There’s a huge appetite out there to get back to normal (not “new normal”, “old normal”) and it’s going to get harder and harder to push back against this over the next few months (never mind years)
 
And that’s the million dollar question. How long is it necessary? And how do we even define necessary?

There’s a huge appetite out there to get back to normal (not “new normal”, “old normal”) and it’s going to get harder and harder to push back against this over the next few months (never mind years)
How do you feel about the supposed news that there won't be any more easing of restrictions here til late September? Seems a bit nuts given how many we have vaccinated now, but I know delta is an outlier.

Question then is what happens with the schools back and as we come into the winter and the HSE goes through its annual winter collapse, are we supposed to continue like this? It would be suicide for the government.

If there's one thing Covid has reinforced here in Ireland it's how rubbish the HSE is as a healthcare system. All those billions spent and it can't cope with any sort of increase in cases like other wealthy nations can. I firmly believe it's the main reason we've spent so much time under lockdown compared to other similar countries.
 
How do you feel about the supposed news that there won't be any more easing of restrictions here til late September? Seems a bit nuts given how many we have vaccinated now, but I know delta is an outlier.

Question then is what happens with the schools back and as we come into the winter and the HSE goes through its annual winter collapse, are we supposed to continue like this? It would be suicide for the government.

If there's one thing Covid has reinforced here in Ireland it's how rubbish the HSE is as a healthcare system. All those billions spent and it can't cope with any sort of increase in cases like other wealthy nations can. I firmly believe it's the main reason we've spent so much time under lockdown compared to other similar countries.

The HSE has been a shamble for decades. Not for lack of investment though. Our per capita spend on health has always been quite high. The HSE is just incredibly inefficient.

However I doubt there’s any real appetite to do the sort of root and branch reform we need (which would include a lot of pay-cuts and redundancies) in the current political climate.
 
And that’s the million dollar question. How long is it necessary? And how do we even define necessary?

There’s a huge appetite out there to get back to normal (not “new normal”, “old normal”) and it’s going to get harder and harder to push back against this over the next few months (never mind years)
I know, that's a very valid observation. If we were living somewhere else, no doubt people wouldn't have been so compliant - it's easy to get folk to go along with things when everyone knows everyone else.