Scottish / Irish Independance

Ok. Explain how knowingly getting rid of all the jobs paid for by the British Government on the basis that other jobs may become available would be considered a sound economic decision.

Perhaps you didn't read what I said. UK is in a period of uncertainty and right now, we are not sure of the extent to which the public sector in NI will be affected. I'm not saying NI get rid of the jobs, I'm saying that England's priority will not be Northern Ireland and jobs could be lost depending on how badly the economy suffers as a result.
 
Perhaps you didn't read what I said. UK is in a period of uncertainty and right now, we are not sure of the extent to which the public sector in NI will be affected. I'm not saying NI get rid of the jobs, I'm saying that England's priority will not be Northern Ireland and jobs could be lost depending on how badly the economy suffers as a result.
Leaving the UK would guarantee the loss of those jobs. Essentially you're saying it could be a good idea to replace uncertainty in the UK with uncertainty of a United Ireland. In what way would that be a smart economic decision?
 
Leaving the UK would guarantee the loss of those jobs. Essentially you're saying it could be a good idea to replace uncertainty in the UK with uncertainty of a United Ireland. In what way would that be a smart economic decision?

It wouldn't be. But then NI leaving the EU wasn't a smart economic decision either. And yet only a few days ago almost half the voters here voted for that very thing.
 
It wouldn't be. But then NI leaving the EU wasn't a smart economic decision either. And yet only a few days ago almost half the voters here voted for that very thing.
I agree and it's a shame that so many could be so stupid. I'm glad our majority voted a little more sensibly though.
 
Leaving the UK would guarantee the loss of those jobs. Essentially you're saying it could be a good idea to replace uncertainty in the UK with uncertainty of a United Ireland. In what way would that be a smart economic decision?

Again, you seem to be misreading what I am saying.

The uncertainty in the UK could lead to the loss of those jobs. That is my point. Therefore the jobs you are arguing for may not exist at the time of a border poll (or certainly not be as secure). It's hard to say what the future will hold at the moment due to the uncertainty surrounding the British economy.

As for whether Ireland unified would be able to support Northern Ireland's public sector independently as part of the EU - again, it is hard to determine until we see the ramifications that the Leave decision has for the UK and the benefits that Republic of Ireland reap from it.
 
Again, you seem to be misreading what I am saying.

The uncertainty in the UK could lead to the loss of those jobs. That is my point. Therefore the jobs you are arguing for may not exist at the time of a border poll (or certainly not be as secure). It's hard to say what the future will hold at the moment due to the uncertainty surrounding the British economy.

As for whether Ireland unified would be able to support Northern Ireland's public sector independently as part of the EU - again, it is hard to determine until we see the ramifications that the Leave decision has for the UK and the benefits that Republic of Ireland reap from it.
The time for talking about it will be when there is a realistic chance of Northern Ireland being better off in a United Ireland. That will still be a long way off. Your hypothesis is based on nothing but conjecture at this stage.
 
The time for talking about it will be when there is a realistic chance of Northern Ireland being better off in a United Ireland. That will still be a long way off. Your hypothesis is based on nothing but conjecture at this stage.

Of course! But you originally stated that a United Ireland could never be economically beneficial and that was what I was arguing. Glad to see you came around.
 
Of course! But you originally stated that a United Ireland could never be economically beneficial and that was what I was arguing. Glad to see you came around.
Except I never did that. I said it was extremely unlikely. Which it is. Any talk of a United Ireland as a result of the EU referendum is extremely misplaced and despite your claims any vote that did pass for it is unlikely to be an economic decision.
 
The politicians might be saying no, but a recent poll suggest the people wanted out. I know of a lot people living there and the majority are swaying to out.

No, they are not mate. I can absolutely categorically promise you that.

The Swedes are in shock about Brexit, we are a country with a large middle class and understand the EU (unlike the UK) and what Sweden gets out of it. Please send me any proof of this absolutely bullshit poll you are talking about @starman

As I said earlier, the "problem" in Sweden currently is the large number of refugees we have tried to help, insane numbers in comparison to the rest of Europe, and that is causing support with the SD (far right) party. But make no mistake, the huge majority of Swedes (even the ones massively against non-eu immigration) understand that this is the fault of Swedish policy, not EU.
 
Except I never did that. I said it was extremely unlikely. Which it is. Any talk of a United Ireland as a result of the EU referendum is extremely misplaced and despite your claims any vote that did pass for it is unlikely to be an economic decision.

All the negatives you speak about in relation to the public sector are likely to be matched by boosts to the private sector in an Ireland unified. The Republic of Ireland's economy is one of, if not the overall, fastest rising economy in the European Union currently. In contrast, Northern Ireland's economy is in a downward trend and has been for a long time. The GDP per capita of both countries is almost incomparable.

It's not an open and shut case. I'll leave this here anyway.
 
I agree and it's a shame that so many could be so stupid. I'm glad our majority voted a little more sensibly though.

Me too mate. But it's a bit scary that we have so many people who would vote us off an economic cliff simply because the DUP or Sinn Fein told them to.
 
Me too mate. But it's a bit scary that we have so many people who would vote us off an economic cliff simply because the DUP or Sinn Fein told them to.

Sinn Fein were a Remain party, to be fair.
 
Sinn Fein were a Remain party, to be fair.

They were mate but i mean in general not just on the EU referendum. Say there was a border poll tomorrow and it was highly likely that voting for a United Ireland would cause many people to lose their jobs here. And put not only our economy in the toilet but also the entire Irish economy. Sinn Fein would still try to convince people to vote for a United Ireland and many of their supporters would blindly comply despite the ramifications.

Last week we saw the exact same thing happen on the other side. The DUP advised people to vote to Leave the EU and the majority of their voters did just that. Despite the fact that it will likely mean hardship for many people here over the next few years.
 
They were mate but i mean in general not just on the EU referendum. Say there was a border poll tomorrow and it was highly likely that voting for a United Ireland would cause many people to lose their jobs here. And put not only our economy in the toilet but also the entire Irish economy. Sinn Fein would still try to convince people to vote for a United Ireland and many of their supporters would blindly comply despite the ramifications.

Last week we saw the exact same thing happen on the other side. The DUP advised people to vote to Leave the EU and the majority of their voters did just that. Despite the fact that it will likely mean hardship for many people here over the next few years.

I understand. Perhaps that is the case.. but I honestly think at least 30-50% of the Catholic population would vote to stay if it was economically beneficial.
 
I understand. Perhaps that is the case.. but I honestly think at least 30-50% of the Catholic population would vote to stay if it was economically beneficial.

Yeah to be fair that is true mate. Myself being one of them.
 
No, they are not mate. I can absolutely categorically promise you that.

The Swedes are in shock about Brexit, we are a country with a large middle class and understand the EU (unlike the UK) and what Sweden gets out of it. Please send me any proof of this absolutely bullshit poll you are talking about @starman

As I said earlier, the "problem" in Sweden currently is the large number of refugees we have tried to help, insane numbers in comparison to the rest of Europe, and that is causing support with the SD (far right) party. But make no mistake, the huge majority of Swedes (even the ones massively against non-eu immigration) understand that this is the fault of Swedish policy, not EU.

http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-...of-swedes-want-to-leave-eu-in-case-of-brexit/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36548114

http://news.sky.com/story/1715416/after-brexit-would-it-be-swexit-and-grexit

I fail to see how you can be so confident about it when pretty right up to the the final moments of the U.K vote closing, remain was tipped to win.
You only get a true sense of the feeling on the entire nation when you get to vote. Whether, thats the decision that should be left to the people, is another question altogether.
 
Last edited:
They were mate but i mean in general not just on the EU referendum. Say there was a border poll tomorrow and it was highly likely that voting for a United Ireland would cause many people to lose their jobs here. And put not only our economy in the toilet but also the entire Irish economy. Sinn Fein would still try to convince people to vote for a United Ireland and many of their supporters would blindly comply despite the ramifications.

Last week we saw the exact same thing happen on the other side. The DUP advised people to vote to Leave the EU and the majority of their voters did just that. Despite the fact that it will likely mean hardship for many people here over the next few years.
In such a scenario what would you expect SF to push for? Of course they'd go for a United Ireland. They've never stopped working towards that. Even if it meant some uncertain economic times. The bigger question will always be the Unionist reaction to it.
 
In such a scenario what would you expect SF to push for? Of course they'd go for a United Ireland. They've never stopped working towards that. Even if it meant some uncertain economic times. The bigger question will always be the Unionist reaction to it.

I would expect them to do nothing less than push for a United Ireland in any scenario if given half a chance.

But that wasn't my point mate. I was commenting on the amount of people here who would blindly vote for/against a United Ireland regardless of how much economic sense it makes.

As for the Unionist reaction, we already know what that would be. The majority of them would vote against a United Ireland, even if hypothetically we would be much better off in one. Just as the majority of them voted to leave the EU last week because they think/hope it will result in border checkpoints and Northern and Southern Ireland growing further apart.
 
In a second Scottish Independence Referendum, the 400k EU nationals and 16 and 17 year olds would be eligible to vote.

Had the EU nationals voted in the EU referendum, assuming only 50% voted (some would be too young, background level of voting is about 60% for those eligible), and assuming 75% voted to stay in, that would increase the "Remain" lead to 63% against 37%

Under those conditions, you can see why Scotland might very well vote to leave the UK and stay in the EU
 


Response from a friend on FB:

"Stephen Bush is a reliable observer of British politics. Think about the second sentence in this tweet for a minute and its possible consequences. I mean, the British elite recall that there was a war of sorts in part of their country quite recently, no? And that while it was won by beating and killing Provos and their supporters, peace was secured by reassuring the Unionists that they could stay in the UK and, not less importantly, reassuring that Catholic nationalists that they wouldn't be trapped in a Unionist state, that while the border would remain its practical significance would diminish over time, in the context of an ever more integrated Europe. Well Cameron deep sixed the ever greater closer union thing in his pre-referendum negotiations with the rest of the EU. And now it seems that we're on our way back to a hard border: with fixed checkpoints on the main roads? with barriers being erected on side roads? with observation posts being put up on the hills of South Armagh again? The dissident republican factions must be loving the sound of this and having wet dreams about their first major attack on a border checkpoint.
Note that I think there’ll be no immediate return to violence. The UK will be part of the EU for at least another two years and the mainstream republican movement has totally bought into (not to say been bought off by) the Good Friday settlement. Indeed it’s the mainstream republican movement that’s the principal guarantor that the dissident republican groups won’t get too uppity anytime soon.
All that said, the carelessness and blithe stupidity with which the British elite is treating the future of *part of their own fecking country* is very worrying indeed and this potential undermining of the foundations of the Good Friday settlement bodes very badly for the future"
 
If that's true then a referendum is guarenteed. They're chopping the peace process in half if that happens (still dont think it will).
In any case it's s nearly impossible to guess what will happen.
 
If that's true then a referendum is guarenteed. They're chopping the peace process in half if that happens (still dont think it will).
In any case it's s nearly impossible to guess what will happen.

Depends who gets in. Michael Gove hates the nationalists in Northern Ireland. He wrote an essay on how the Peace Process was basically a betrayal of the British people and we should have just continued to murder Catholics in their droves.

https://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/111220142628-thepriceofpeace2000MichaelGove.pdf
 


Response from a friend on FB:


Aye, a hard border would be a big step backwards for the peace process. Wouldn't be as confident in mainstream Republicans' ability to keep dissidents in check either.
 
Depends who gets in. Michael Gove hates the nationalists in Northern Ireland. He wrote an essay on how the Peace Process was basically a betrayal of the British people and we should have just continued to murder Catholics in their droves.

https://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/111220142628-thepriceofpeace2000MichaelGove.pdf

I got as far as 'page 1 of 65' and stopped reading.

Thats sounds worrying.
Conservatives are really determined to make a mess aren't they
 
I'd really like to see an England & Northern Ireland axis, and bin off the rest.
 
I'd really like to see an England & Northern Ireland axis, and bin off the rest.

Why would Northern Ireland side with England? Not only did they majority vote to Remain, but England will potentially have Gove as a Prime Minister, a man who hates nationalists in NI and thinks the Peace Process was a betrayal of the United Kingdom.

I know plenty of Nordies, and they want nothing more to do with Westminster or the English. An independent Scotland and a united Ireland might be the only good to come of England dragging everyone out of the EU.