The Independent Group for Change | Have decided to disband after ten months

[Dobba]

And good, you've proved why you're not worth the effort of talking to by taking this conversation back to exactly where it started. Thanks for wasting both our afternoons.

I'm sorry that we're back at me pointing out the people who'd be backing remain have learned nothing. But there was always the risk that would happen when you demonstrate that you've learned nothing.

 

[Dobba]

Unicorns or forcing a general election... I mean why not... Corbyn has managed to waffle on about impossibilities in place of a coherent policy... And he's had years to prepare for it so why hold others to a higher standard

Something to do with Corbyn not having just left a political party citing he doesn't agree with its views on Brexit?

 

[That'sHernandez]

She withdrew the comment.But i would not be surprised at all if that was happening.

You can’t withdraw something like that when it is out and an apology isn’t enough. I’m not saying the Labour Party is institutionally anti-Semitic but when you have people saying things like that within the party and they think issuing an apology is the end of the matter without any sort of investigation or disciplinary action, it’s pretty easy to see why others would.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Doubt that

I don’t see what else happens.

Neither party is going to give up the political capital of pushing for a second referendum. And therefore there’s no way to stop no deal bar withdrawing from Brexit (same issue as above) or a cross-party fudge, which looks awfully similar to May’s deal.

I think May will be able to effectively position the choice as being Labour/ Tory Rebels giving into her deal, or no deal. Enough of the two groups will either abstain or support May’s deal to avoid being responsible for a no deal disaster.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I'm sorry that we're back at me pointing out the people who'd be backing remain have learned nothing. But there was always the risk that would happen when you demonstrate that you've learned nothing.

Interesting though isn't it how you're so against a People's Vote because you're adamant that it won't be won (a conjecture you've pulled completely out of your arse and are parading as fact), but are so supportive of a man who is literally the worst performing opposition leader of all time on recent polling irrespective of his ability to win or not.

But like I said, you've rarely let any of your previously held convictions or opinions stand in opposition to your defence of Corbyn so I'm hardly surprised to see such huge inconsistency here either.

You're right though, if only one of the two main political parties had a left wing anti-austerity plan for a post-Remain Britain. Hey, perhaps it could be the sort of person who leads a political party whose members are overwhelmingly pro-Remain and who they have supported through thick and thin by arguing that he does the right thing even when it's not popular? Perhaps a man like that would also manage to accelerate the speeds with which polling is showing that Brits want to Remain. Oh well. I guess being unpopular both with Leave and Remain voters because your strategy is so shit is a better option.

 

[Dobba]

Interesting though isn't it how you're so against a People's Vote because you're adamant that it won't be won (a conjecture you've pulled completely out of your arse and are parading as fact), but are so supportive of a man who is literally the worst performing opposition leader of all time on recent polling irrespective of his ability to win or not.

But like I said, you've rarely let any of your previously held convictions or opinions stand in opposition to your defence of Corbyn so I'm hardly surprised to see such huge inconsistency here either.

Great point well made. The polls are proof Corbyn wouldn't win, but the parties who are in favour of a People's Vote being in single figures (and in a couple level pegging with UKIP - no idea what their Brexit policy is) isn't remotely important or indicative of anything. Thankfully you're in such a strong position to accuse others of inconsistencies that I will take this criticism on board.

 

[Shamwow]

Interesting though isn't it how you're so against a People's Vote because you're adamant that it won't be won (a conjecture you've pulled completely out of your arse and are parading as fact), but are so supportive of a man who is literally the worst performing opposition leader of all time on recent polling irrespective of his ability to win or not.

But like I said, you've rarely let any of your previously held convictions or opinions stand in opposition to your defence of Corbyn so I'm hardly surprised to see such huge inconsistency here either.

You're right though, if only one of the two main political parties had a left wing anti-austerity plan for a post-Remain Britain. Hey, perhaps it could be the sort of person who leads a political party whose members are overwhelmingly pro-Remain and who they have supported through thick and thin by arguing that he does the right thing even when it's not popular? Perhaps a man like that would also manage to accelerate the speeds with which polling is showing that Brits want to Remain. Oh well. I guess being unpopular both with Leave and Remain voters because your strategy is so shit is a better option.

What is the realistic route to getting a people's vote in the first place? Even if Corbyn whipped for it there would be too many Labour rebels.

 

[NinjaFletch]

Great point well made. The polls are proof Corbyn wouldn't win, but the parties who are in favour of a People's Vote being in single figures (and in a couple level pegging with UKIP - no idea what their Brexit policy is) isn't remotely important or indicative of anything. Thankfully you're in such a strong position to accuse others of inconsistencies that I will take this criticism on board.

You can be honest, do you actually think the People's Vote is a party? Because it would explain an awful lot.

 

[Dobba]

You can be honest, do you actually think the People's Vote is a party? Because it would explain an awful lot.

People's Vote is a group happily whitewashing the voting records of the biggest political dregs this country has to offer, welcoming them like heroes to marches and events where 'What happens after we get what we want?' is the last thing on people's minds. All whilst pretending to be oh so terribly concerned about the very people those dregs have spent the last 10 years targeting with austerity and cuts.

What is the realistic route to getting a people's vote in the first place? Even if Corbyn whipped for it there would be too many Labour rebels.

If Corbyn wills it, it will happen. #MagicGrandpa

 

[Cheesy]

Huh? The fecking leader of the opposition (bland guy, looks like a history teacher, not surprised he slipped your mind) is arguably the most hard left Labour leader in living memory. But yeah, we're just talking about Ash and Owen Jones here...

A lot of his economic views are basically standard democratic socialism though. A brand of socialism even most Labour moderates back in the day subscribed to in one form of another. It's true that the party have always had a 'hard left' so to speak, and some of Corbyn's more bizarre views suggest he'd perhaps be on the hard left spectrum irrespective of where it sat, but the platform he ran on in 2017 wasn't absurdly out there in terms of the renationalisation agenda he was espousing. The party shifted firmly to the centre during the Blair era which essentially left the left-wing of British politics completely unrepresented. Much as I wouldn't describe myself as one being a 'centrist' isn't inherently bad if that's what you believe - the problem is when solidly right-wing ideals get represented as belonging to the centre or even the left. Look at the US where another fairly moderate democratic socialist in Sanders gets described as a proper socialist all the time. A description that's not at all accurate.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

As ever, the bar for what counts as extreme when it comes to the left is a lot lower than that for the right. Most people on what is called the ''far left", and certainly those at the top of the Labour Party, are pushing for a pretty inoffensive form of democratic socialism. Most Labour members right now want investment in public services (NHS, education), renationalisation of the industries which privatisation hasn't worked for and for government to encourage business to pay its taxes, pay staff better etc. Obviously there are people who want more than that, but very few are asking for things which are actually ultra-left, e.g - collectivisation, state ownership of all industry and so on. In terms of actual policies the 2017 Labour manifesto skews less to the left than Blair's government did to the right. The policies of May's government skew FAR more right than Corbyn's Labour does left. This is probably the most right-wing government we've seen in this country in over half a century and many of the major players in the political landscape like Farage and Arlene Foster are further right still, but the uproar and all the media talk is all about the imagined threat of the 'far left'.

@Pogue Mahone - You're right when you say that the recession was little to do with 'centrist' economic policies. A centrist policy would have been to a) establish the financial sector as part of a balanced economy so as not to put all the country's eggs in a basket which falls off a cliff once every couple of decades and b) to regulate it properly, reducing the chance of it going tits up and establishing clear accountability for those responsible in the event it did. The severity of the recession was largely down to neoliberal, laissez-faire economic policies which, in the context of the Labour Party, have generally been espoused by people who call themselves 'centrists'.

 

[Cheesy]

Great point well made. The polls are proof Corbyn wouldn't win, but the parties who are in favour of a People's Vote being in single figures (and in a couple level pegging with UKIP - no idea what their Brexit policy is) isn't remotely important or indicative of anything. Thankfully you're in such a strong position to accuse others of inconsistencies that I will take this criticism on board.

I mean - if you are going to argue that polling is indicative of the fact any People's Vote wouldn't win, you'd surely need to adopt a similar approach with Corbyn? The Remain mob may be acting a tad hypocritical here but that wouldn't necessarily undermine the hypocrisy of Corbyn's camp either.

 

[NinjaFletch]

People's Vote is a group happily whitewashing the voting records of the biggest political dregs this country has to offer, whilst pretending to be concerned about the very people those dregs have spent the last 10 years targeting with austerity and cuts.

And, awkwardly for Labour and those who still support Corbyn, those involved with it are still offering a better solution than anything Corbyn has managed to do over the past two and a half years.

Hardly a glowing endorsement that even the 'dregs' are better, is it?

 

[Dobba]

And, awkwardly for Labour and those who still support Corbyn, those involved with it are still offering a better solution than anything Corbyn has managed to do over the past two and a half years.

Hardly a glowing endorsement that even the 'dregs' are better, is it?

For, what is it now, the third time? What's this grand plan for the day after Brexit goes away then?

What procedures have been put in place since Vote Leave/Putin lied cheated and stole the last referendum to ensure this one is completely tamper-proof?

I mean - if you are going to argue that polling is indicative of the fact any People's Vote wouldn't win, you'd surely need to adopt a similar approach with Corbyn? The Remain mob may be acting a tad hypocritical here but that wouldn't necessarily undermine the hypocrisy of Corbyn's camp either.

Polling isn't what's indicative of PV not winning, them having absolutely nothing in way of a plan beyond 'Brexit's a bit shit, innit?' is.

All it'll take is one journalist in press event one of the campaign to ask: "So in your ideal world, the second referendum sees a vote to cancel Brexit. How would you solve the issues that led to such a decision being made by the electorate at the first one?" and it crumbles into dust.

 

[Shamwow]

And, awkwardly for Labour and those who still support Corbyn, those involved with it are still offering a better solution than anything Corbyn has managed to do over the past two and a half years.

Hardly a glowing endorsement that even the 'dregs' are better, is it?

You still haven't said how this better solution would actually be achieved in practice.

 

[Cheesy]

Polling isn't what's indicative of PV not winning, them having absolutely nothing in way of a plan beyond 'Brexit's a bit shit, innit?' is.

It's not great, but it's ever so slightly more impressive than spending two and a half years pretending it's not an issue when you're the opposition party expected to hold the government to account over it.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I mean - if you are going to argue that polling is indicative of the fact any People's Vote wouldn't win, you'd surely need to adopt a similar approach with Corbyn? The Remain mob may be acting a tad hypocritical here but that wouldn't necessarily undermine the hypocrisy of Corbyn's camp either.

There's no hypocrisy, it's just irrelevant.

We were discussing whether Labour should support a second referendum or not. Dobba believes it isn't because Remain wouldn't win, so the relevant polling here is that there is a healthy Remain lead.

 

[Dobba]

There's no hypocrisy, it's just irrelevant.

We were discussing whether Labour should support a second referendum or not. Dobba believes it isn't because Remain wouldn't win, so the relevant polling here is that there is a healthy Remain lead.

People's Vote 2: Electric Boogaloo.

 

[Cheesy]

Bit irrelevant until the IG actually have enough MP's etc to field candidates in all seats, but interesting all the same.

 

[NinjaFletch]

People's Vote 2: Electric Boogaloo.

I mean, that's interesting, do you genuinely think that anyone other than you looks at that and thinks 'ah, feck, well there's no point bothering with a second referendum then, there's no chance Remain will win'?

 

[Dobba]

Bit irrelevant until the IG actually have enough MP's etc to field candidates in all seats, but interesting all the same.

Or a policy on anything.

 

[Ubik]

A lot of this stuff could go in the Corbyn or Brexit threads, maybe?

Anyway, it's sky data so pinch of salt, and an extra handful of it as it's a very nebulous "new centrist anti-brexit party" option, but first figures I've seen regarding it:



EDIT - ninja'd by Cheesy, but mine has a graph so I'll allow it.

 

[Dobba]

I mean, that's interesting, do you genuinely think that anyone other than you looks at that and thinks 'ah, feck, well there's no point bothering with a second referendum then, there's no chance Remain will win'?

I'm half thinking that, half wondering how much I'd have to spend to buy all the domains and copyright for the term 'People's Vote 2' before the Eurosceptics come after them.

 

[sun_tzu]

Something to do with Corbyn not having just left a political party citing he doesn't agree with its views on Brexit?

True... He never had the balls to leave though when he disagreed in the Blair years... Far too cushy a job to actually put his beliefs first... Easier just to vote against the manifesto he was voted in on.
It's such a shame that such an incompetent bloke has ended up in charge at a time when we have probably the most inept government in living memory... His incompetence is literally the only thing keeping them in power

 

[Cheesy]

A lot of this stuff could go in the Corbyn or Brexit threads, maybe?

Anyway, it's sky data so pinch of salt, and an extra handful of it as it's a very nebulous "new centrist anti-brexit party" option, but first figures I've seen regarding it:



EDIT - ninja'd by Cheesy, but mine has a graph so I'll allow it.

Out of intrigue, put the figures into the electoral calculus prediction model to see what it came up with. Think the model's outdated as feck so can't be taken as particularly accurate, and of course it presumes any Labour split party would actually have enough candidates to mount a challenge, but it has the Tories staying the same, Labour dropping about 50 or so, the Lib Dems picking up 15-20 roughly and the Labour split party picking up 26. SNP would also gain significantly again as well. Again, obviously said numbers won't be accurate and are based off something that probably won't gain any traction, but it certainly does suggest that it'd hit Labour enough in a lot of areas to cost them plenty of seats (certainly enough to kill off electoral hopes), and that the Tories would be a lot more unaffected.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

Out of intrigue, put the figures into the electoral calculus prediction model to see what it came up with. Think the model's outdated as feck so can't be taken as particularly accurate, and of course it presumes any Labour split party would actually have enough candidates to mount a challenge, but it has the Tories staying the same, Labour dropping about 50 or so, the Lib Dems picking up 15-20 roughly and the Labour split party picking up 26. SNP would also gain significantly again as well. Again, obviously said numbers won't be accurate and are based off something that probably won't gain any traction, but it certainly does suggest that it'd hit Labour enough in a lot of areas to cost them plenty of seats (certainly enough to kill off electoral hopes), and that the Tories would be a lot more unaffected.

Has anyone got a poll with a possible Brexit Party popped in as an option as well? I think there's a decent chance that Labour would come out as the biggest party in that poll.

 

[Cheesy]

Has anyone got a poll with a possible Brexit Party popped in as an option as well? I think there's a decent chance that Labour would come out as the biggest party in that poll.

Would be interesting to see. There's a chance a Brexit party would take a lot of UKIP voters but struggle to make inroads into the Tories who fear Corbyn being elected. I'm kinda wary as to how well they'd do though because there effectively already was a Brexit party...UKIP. And their numbers have been meddling at best. And they may also be able to pick up Labour voters as well as Tories.

 

[Ubik]

Out of intrigue, put the figures into the electoral calculus prediction model to see what it came up with. Think the model's outdated as feck so can't be taken as particularly accurate, and of course it presumes any Labour split party would actually have enough candidates to mount a challenge, but it has the Tories staying the same, Labour dropping about 50 or so, the Lib Dems picking up 15-20 roughly and the Labour split party picking up 26. SNP would also gain significantly again as well. Again, obviously said numbers won't be accurate and are based off something that probably won't gain any traction, but it certainly does suggest that it'd hit Labour enough in a lot of areas to cost them plenty of seats (certainly enough to kill off electoral hopes), and that the Tories would be a lot more unaffected.

Interesting that they would gain that many (or even any) on that kind of model, as you'd think the vote would be spread evenly having come from nothing. Wonder where the vote was most focussed.

I've also just seen that it wasn't the first, I have been slack and Survation actually did one yesterday, which is doubly interesting because they're legit and have been showing Labour doing better than in other polls.



And without the amorphous blob of centrists:



So per this, they take very little from the big two parties between the two scenarios, mostly gaining from the Lib Dems, which is basically just cannibalising the same vote and isn't going to get them very far. But also interesting that Labour take a big hit anyway, as if a section of voters will leave regardless. More than possible it's just a blip, and after the fanfare of day one (even a terribly shit day one), people will revert to type.

 

[NinjaFletch]

You still haven't said how this better solution would actually be achieved in practice.

It depends what you're asking.

The parliamentary arithmetics would always require Tory support and may still mean that a second referendum becomes necessary to break the log jam. Labour being strongly in favour of a second referendum though is more about changing the discourse around Brexit.

Which is a bit weird, because we did see during the election that the one thing Corbyn is good at is campaigning. I think he could have been really successful had Labour's Brexit policy not been an utter fudge, but he tried to play politics (for understandable reasons maybe) and he's not very good at that.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

Would be interesting to see. There's a chance a Brexit party would take a lot of UKIP voters but struggle to make inroads into the Tories who fear Corbyn being elected. I'm kinda wary as to how well they'd do though because there effectively already was a Brexit party...UKIP. And their numbers have been meddling at best.

Farage's profile and ability to pull airtime is the difference between UKIP being an irrelevance and being a force IMO. When he declared mission accomplished UKIP were basically done, and a lot of their voters jumped ship to the Tories as they were the more Brexit-y of the remaining options.

I think a Farage-led Brexit party would struggle to take the traditional Tory vote regardless of how Brexit-y it is, but it might play a part in the marginals.

 

[Shamwow]

It depends what you're asking.

The parliamentary arithmetics would always require Tory support and may still mean that a second referendum becomes necessary to break the log jam. Labour being strongly in favour of a second referendum though is more about changing the discourse around Brexit.

Which is a bit weird, because we did see during the election that the one thing Corbyn is good at is campaigning. I think he could have been really successful had Labour's Brexit policy not been an utter fudge, but he tried to play politics (for understandable reasons maybe) and he's not very good at that.

I guess I'm not as convinced as you are that it would change the discourse in a positive way. I'd love a second referendum that winds up in Brexit being cancelled but I don't think it can happen. There are too many obstacles. And we would probably significantly reduce our chances of getting elected for a while, there would be a cost to chasing this dream.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I guess I'm not as convinced as you are that it would change the discourse in a positive way. I'd love a second referendum that winds up in Brexit being cancelled but I don't think it can happen. There are too many obstacles. And we would probably significantly reduce our chances of getting elected for a while, there would be a cost to chasing this dream.

It's not a no-risk strategy, agreed. But compare it to the alternative. Labour are polling poorly with both Brexit and Remain voters, they've been replaced as the effective opposition by Tory rebels who (when push came to shove) toed the party line, Corbyn is outperforming May in the 'who is the shittest shit' polls and a splinter group broke off the party yesterday which, if current numbers above hold out, would make Labour unelectable as well. That movement could grow or it could fizzle out, time will tell, but it hardly inspires confidence that Labour's policy has ensured they will be an electoral force.

And for what? A situation where No Deal Brexit is still in the discourse.

I'm not certain Labour couldn't have made a success of their overall approach, but not with Corbyn at the helm. It's not what he's good at and it's not what won him leadership elections, justifying the policy be hiding behind political pragmatism just makes the whole Corbyn endeavour pointless. You might as well have a charismatic man in a suit that plays well with the media if you're not going to stand for anything.

 

[Shamwow]

It's not a no-risk strategy, agreed. But compare it to the alternative. Labour are polling poorly with both Brexit and Remain voters, they've been replaced as the effective opposition by Tory rebels who (when push came to shove) toed the party line, Corbyn is outperforming May in the 'who is the shittest shit' polls and a splinter group broke off the party yesterday which, if current numbers above hold out, would make Labour unelectable as well. That movement could grow or it could fizzle out, time will tell, but it hardly inspires confidence that Labour's policy has ensured they will be an electoral force.

And for what? A situation where No Deal Brexit is still in the discourse.

I'm not certain Labour couldn't have made a success of their overall approach, but not with Corbyn at the helm. It's not what he's good at and it's not what won him leadership elections, justifying the policy be hiding behind political pragmatism just makes the whole Corbyn endeavour pointless. You might as well have a charismatic man in a suit that plays well with the media if you're not going to stand for anything.

It's a high risk strategy- both for the party and the country - with a low chance of success. I've got to be honest, most of your post here is just rambling on about why Corbyn is bad, not actively supporting your own argument. If the best you can realistically hope for is a vague "maybe we can change the discourse for the better" then it's not a great solution and if it's based on things that I think you know to be wrong like "if the current numbers hold out" then it doesn't get any better.

 

[NinjaFletch]

It's a high risk strategy- both for the party and the country - with a low chance of success. I've got to be honest, most of your post here is just rambling on about why Corbyn is bad, not actively supporting your own argument. If the best you can realistically hope for is a vague "maybe we can change the discourse for the better" then it's not a great solution and if it's based on things that I think you know to be wrong like "if the current numbers hold out" then it doesn't get any better.

But that's because we've been discussing the insane contortions used to defend Corbyn from criticism, not the criticisms themselves.

That said, I think you missed my point with the second half of your post. My point is that the current policy has led Labour to possibly its most uncertain point in my lifetime in terms of its ability to be an electoral force. Even if yesterday's events fizzle out and lead nowhere (which perhaps is the most likely course of events) it's a pretty damning indictment on Labour's failure to be all things to all people: instead they've been nothing to nobody.

I think it's a bit like United over the past few years to be honest. Labour's polling has been shockingly bad in almost all the key metrics up against a fecking shambles of a government. The only reason people are pretending it's ok is because expectations are so low that being neck and neck in the polls with the Tories is somehow being thought of as a win.

 

[Buster15]

Umunna has just said they plan to form an official party this year. They’re just waiting on more to jump ship.

I’d laugh so hard if May calls a snap election before then and most of them end up losing their seats.

That would be absolutely the stupidist thing that she could do. After last time and all the bad feelings about the Brexit debacle.

Don't underestimate the very bad feeling of the electorate against the main parties.

Assuming that we do leave the EU with (please God) or without I cannot see her surviving for long.
If she is sensible she will resign ASAP after.
Then....the real fun begins.

 

[711]

That would be absolutely the stupidist thing that she could do. After last time and all the bad feelings about the Brexit debacle.

Don't underestimate the very bad feeling of the electorate against the main parties.

Assuming that we do leave the EU with (please God) or without I cannot see her surviving for long.
If she is sensible she will resign ASAP after.
Then....the real fun begins.

She's already told her MPs she will not lead the party into their next election, so I think that's what everyone is expecting anyway.

 

[Shamwow]

But that's because we've been discussing the insane contortions used to defend Corbyn from criticism, not the criticisms themselves.

That said, I think you missed my point with the second half of your post. My point is that the current policy has led Labour to possibly its most uncertain point in my lifetime in terms of its ability to be an electoral force. Even if yesterday's events fizzle out and lead nowhere (which perhaps is the most likely course of events) it's a pretty damning indictment on Labour's failure to be all things to all people: instead they've been nothing to nobody.

I think it's a bit like United over the past few years to be honest. Labour's polling has been shockingly bad in almost all the key metrics up against a fecking shambles of a government. The only reason people are pretending it's ok is because expectations are so low that being neck and neck in the polls with the Tories is somehow being thought of as a win.

I thought we were discussing how realistic getting and winning a PV actually is, and how you think it can be achieved, and you've had nothing to offer on that aside from it might change the discourse.

 

[Ubik]

I guess it was inevitable this would happen eventually. As someone who recently left the Labour Party, I sympathise with the MPs who've decided to leave, but the timing is far from ideal.

The politics of this country has rarely been so depressing.

Just saw this from reading upthread, things really are going through an upheaval if you've left as well.

Dunno if @Frosty is still around, but interested to know his thoughts on it all.

 

[Buster15]

Is Blair going to return to mainstream politics as this new party's leader? He's definitely made some noises about a return.

Highly unlikely. Unfortunately Tony Blair is a tainted politician which to me is a shame.

He is tainted for one reason. The Iraq war. I can imagine loads of people telling me how bad he is but quite honestly apart from Iraq which I fully acknowledge is a major problem he was a pretty good leader. The NHS, Police and Schoolswere in a significantly better position than now.

He had vision and let's not forget won three elections in a row.

But as I said he is tainted so I could not imagine Independence wanting him anywhere near them.

 

[GloryHunter07]

I'd be inclined agree with you there, just seems silly to go down the tit for tat route.

that is all one of our resident Corbynites does in this thread to be fair.