Johnson outperforms guesstimates. It's probably his, but you have to wonder if those not voting for him currently can be convinced otherwise? They may coalesce around another candidate less brash about hard brexit.
its not impossible that johnson drops a bollock but certainly would be a brave person to put their money on any other candidate at this point
Already polling over 50% of the membership and likely to pick up more of the "leave" vote when people drop out
Already over 1/3rd of the MP's backing him which ensures he is in the final 2 (and as soon as MP's believe its inevitable he wins they will all switch allegiance and start looking for government payroll positions)
So yeah its seems hard to see him not winning
Gut feel is that Stewart might do well in the hustings but not well enough to get significant numbers of MPs and quite likley that he, Hancock and Javid are out in the next round
Could see Raab dropping out and backing boris for a cushy role leaving Gove and Hunt to battle for the final spot... though it may be a race to see who can quit first to prevent a mauling at the hands of the membership vote
all hail king boris
I suspect his cabinet will be something along the lines of
Mogg as chancellor
Raab as brexit secretary
and a bunch of other prominent hard brexity types
perhaps with the poisoned chalice of Ireland to somebody he hates to deal with the inevitable border issues... probably gove and hes probably desperate enough for any power to take it
