William Hill Offer - £50m for Predicting the Entire Premier League Table
- Thread starter ThierryHenry
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
We know roughly where teams will finish, though. I'm not saying it's easy, but you have teams that are almost nailed-on to finish top half and teams that are nailed-on to finish bottom half. If we know that four of Arsenal, City, Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Spurs will finish top four, and we can be almost certain that the two that don't make it, plus Southampton and Everton will finish top half, and that Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke will finish above Bournemouth, Leicester and Watford, and so on.
We can make a lot of qualified guesses that slash the odds a lot in our favour. You'd still need a shitload of guesses to be nailed-on to win, of course, but if a group of 10 people submits 2500 different tables using valid assumptions based on team level, surely one of those 2500 tables would at least be in the running for one of the £100k closest guess prizes.
A Redcafe syndicate would be a good idea until we pull a winner and the guy in charge does a runner. Haha.
Getting the closest guess prize is possible (by definition). Especially, if it has been done a lot of research and then being places 2500 tables there. I mean after all, it is limited to 1m tables and assuming that half of those tables are done fast and without much research, then getting the closest prize has chance of 0.5%. Small, but not neglible. Still, very small chance for an investment of 5000 pounds.
Getting the main prize is less likely then winning any type of lottary.
Like Ginola once said... i'm worth it!
Are they really? At £2 per entry?
So if, by some miracle, someone does accurately guess the table.. they're setting themselves up for a potential £48million loss? They're clearly confident..
I am liking this game.
Assuming that we know top 6 and bottom 3 (only the teams, not the order), and assuming that there are 1m tickets (no duplicates), chances that one of the tickets will win are 1/172440. Still, extremely small.
I don't really get why they limited to 1m entries though. Even if more than one ticket won, the 50m prize would be shared, so I gues that it would have benefitted them to allow more entries. Even 10m entries (knowing top 6 and bottom 3, no duplicates) would have probability of winning only at 1/17244 but then the revenue generated would be 20m instead of 2m, and so the potential loss would be 30m instead of 48m.
They're clearly banking on nobody getting it right. I'm aware of the odds and I'm not stupid.. but I really think this is a dangerous move for William Hill. It only takes one lucky ticket for them to be in trouble. Then again, it also only takes one anomaly (a team like Newcastle slipping to the relegation zone, for example) before the majority of tickets are dead in the water.
If the league table is fairly 'as you'd expect', then they could be in trouble. Is the gamble worth £48million for them as a company? I'd say no.
So this is just predicting the positions? They dont want the full exact table. I.e goals for against, wins draws losses ect. Just purely who will occupy positions 1-20?
Worth 2 quid of anyones brass.
Worth 2 quid of anyones brass.
There'd be no probability whatsoever in predicting everything. Probably around 1 in 85472184781274381274807210421894120849032751865073215071248721094829017521395639710512098412903812904912742198057182479.
They seem to have operating income of around £350m so £50m would be significant money for them.
That's what's insurance is for. Given the odds of landing an exact ticket are extremely, extremely small, it won't be hard to get insurance on it.
And it's probably going to cost less than £1m they will get in entry stakes. Profit made + popularity gained.
- Chelsea
- Arsenal
- City
- United
- Liverpool
- Spurs
- Everton
- Southampton
- Stoke
- Swansea
- Palace
- Newcastle
- Aston Villa
- West Brom
- West Ham
- Watford
- Bournemouth
- Sunderland
- Leicester
- Norwich
Thank me later.
Its not easy as it looks, I personally wouldnt have Everton anywhere near 7th, not with Martinez in charge, too inconsistent.
I also think West Brom will do better than Villa, Newcastle and Everton.
How about we pool all our knowledge, wisdom and intellect, and work to invent a time machine?
I know, I've already changed my mind on one or two. Any from 9-12 could be changed around for me and I'd probably put Villa down to 15th or 16th, 13th is probably too high for them.
1. Chelsea
2. United
3. Arsenal
4. City
5. Liverpool
6. Spurs
7. Swansea
8. Southampton
9. Everton
10. West Brom
11. West Ham
12. Aston Villa
13. Stoke
14. Crystal Palace
15. Newcastle
16. Leicester
17. Bournemouth
18. Sunderland
19. Watford
20. Norwich
It's hard. You could easily swap round all the teams from 10-15th, and anything could happen from 2-5th. Chelsea could randomly be shit, Van Gaal's philosophy might prove to be worthwhile as we win the treble, and Everton could be good again.
Who fecking knows! Very hard to predict. It'll probably be won by some extremely knowledgeable football analyst.
2. United
3. Arsenal
4. City
5. Liverpool
6. Spurs
7. Swansea
8. Southampton
9. Everton
10. West Brom
11. West Ham
12. Aston Villa
13. Stoke
14. Crystal Palace
15. Newcastle
16. Leicester
17. Bournemouth
18. Sunderland
19. Watford
20. Norwich
It's hard. You could easily swap round all the teams from 10-15th, and anything could happen from 2-5th. Chelsea could randomly be shit, Van Gaal's philosophy might prove to be worthwhile as we win the treble, and Everton could be good again.
Who fecking knows! Very hard to predict. It'll probably be won by some extremely knowledgeable football analyst.
If it's won it will probably be a housewife who doesn't know any of the clubs.
To be fair there'll be weirdos who will spend hours checking each fixture and doing prediction with incorporated additional risk of form decrease after European games, possible fitness issues of players etc.
You can narrow that down drastically if you consider that Chelsea are likely to be in the Top 3 and United Arsenal and City are likely to be in the Top 5.
There is so much dross in the lower half of the table that it's impossible to predict the order accurately. Top 10 will probably be accurately predicted by a number of people but not the bottom 10.
The most difficult team to predict is Newcastle. You never know whether hey'll be fighting for Champions League or relegation!
Imagine if you got it almost correct but some fecker of a team loses on the final day and ruins everything.
Your life won't be worth living considering you were so close to living it £50m richer.
And imagine if it's us resting players because we've got nothing to play for.
I tried to sign up but they won't let me because I am in denmark 
Possible outcomes ≠ Realistic outcomes, of course.
We probably know 6 of the top 7, and know that Liverpool/Tottenham will not win the league. So we also know the top 4, or at least have a good idea.
There are probably 5 teams that look likely to go down - IMO Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Watford and Sunderland.
This narrows it down hugely, and of course the middle section is going to be tough. But I think if you have the time/knowledge you can make a real educated guess.
We probably know 6 of the top 7, and know that Liverpool/Tottenham will not win the league. So we also know the top 4, or at least have a good idea.
There are probably 5 teams that look likely to go down - IMO Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Watford and Sunderland.
This narrows it down hugely, and of course the middle section is going to be tough. But I think if you have the time/knowledge you can make a real educated guess.
So basically you're narrowing it down to this being something difficult?
Not as difficult as people are making it out to be, although the odds of being correct are still ridiciulous
You could probably buy Newcastle.
Ah feck it's limited to the UK? I had the winning order!I tried to sign up but they won't let me because I am in denmark
The entire city?
The club.
The OP has just given bettingoffers.co free advertising and commission linking that too. They'll get a small % from any new sign up's lifetime account value (of losses) as an affiliate.
And the people. Would that include Cheryl Cole?
You could probably have her for a bag of chips to be fair..
1. Chelsea - Assuming they'll sign one or two more, their squad is the most complete in the league.
2. United - Assuming we're going to sign a centre back, I think we'll get close to Chelsea. Very close.
3. City - Their squad is underrated IMO, and Sterling will probably be a good addition.
4. Arsenal - Meh, they did great last season, but I've got a feeling that things won't go as smooth this season. They need more signings than Cech.
5. Spurs - Alderweireld is an amazing signing.
6. Everton - They've got a strong squad. Deulofeu and Cleverley are decent signings.
7. Liverpool - Too many average signings. Benteke doesn't fit their style at all. Expectations are too high.
8. Newcastle - Wijnaldum is a great player from what I've seen. They've got many exciting players like Mitrovic and Ayoze.
9. Southampton - Unlike last year, they've replaced good players with average players this summer.
10. Crystal Palace - I love their wingers. Cabaye is an excellent addition.
11. Stoke - Too bad they didn't get Shaqiri. Otherwise, they're still average as always.
12. West Ham - Solid team, but the signings have been too many and too average. They'll have an average season.
13. Aston Villa - They've had a very good window, which is what they desperately have needed.
14. Swansea - Eder is an awful signing. They're going to struggle up front.
15. Sunderland - Whatever.
16. Norwich - OK team. They've had an OK window.
17. West Brom - Pulis is immune to relegation. He could've survived with my local team Tromsø IL in the PL.
18. Watford - Many signings. Too many and too average. Behrami is good though.
19. Bournemouth - Josh King is an excellent addition, but their squad needs a full overhaul to be honest. They've got a great team spirit though.
20. Leicester - Half-arsed club.
2. United - Assuming we're going to sign a centre back, I think we'll get close to Chelsea. Very close.
3. City - Their squad is underrated IMO, and Sterling will probably be a good addition.
4. Arsenal - Meh, they did great last season, but I've got a feeling that things won't go as smooth this season. They need more signings than Cech.
5. Spurs - Alderweireld is an amazing signing.
6. Everton - They've got a strong squad. Deulofeu and Cleverley are decent signings.
7. Liverpool - Too many average signings. Benteke doesn't fit their style at all. Expectations are too high.
8. Newcastle - Wijnaldum is a great player from what I've seen. They've got many exciting players like Mitrovic and Ayoze.
9. Southampton - Unlike last year, they've replaced good players with average players this summer.
10. Crystal Palace - I love their wingers. Cabaye is an excellent addition.
11. Stoke - Too bad they didn't get Shaqiri. Otherwise, they're still average as always.
12. West Ham - Solid team, but the signings have been too many and too average. They'll have an average season.
13. Aston Villa - They've had a very good window, which is what they desperately have needed.
14. Swansea - Eder is an awful signing. They're going to struggle up front.
15. Sunderland - Whatever.
16. Norwich - OK team. They've had an OK window.
17. West Brom - Pulis is immune to relegation. He could've survived with my local team Tromsø IL in the PL.
18. Watford - Many signings. Too many and too average. Behrami is good though.
19. Bournemouth - Josh King is an excellent addition, but their squad needs a full overhaul to be honest. They've got a great team spirit though.
20. Leicester - Half-arsed club.
You can really see how betting companies make so much easy money reading through this thread...