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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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fcbforever said:
It can. We could have just forced them by refusing to bail out. Just because there isn't a specific regulation for that case, doesn't mean it's not possible. When the second bailout was discussed, Schäuble explained in detail how it would work, the plans were on the table.
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Schäuble is a turd of the highest order.

Yes they can force bankruptcy on anyone, nice people. They would have felt the pain of that themselves, it was a thatcher style bluff.
 
fcbforever said:
It's not per se. They wanted them to be cooked and paid people to do that. If you are, like Stanley Road, desperate to prove a point you have to take very specific angles when looking at things.
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As you know so much, tell me the about French involvement in this
 
fcbforever said:
It's not per se. They wanted them to be cooked and paid people to do that. If you are, like Stanley Road, desperate to prove a point you have to take very specific angles when looking at things.
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I know books were cooked. But Stanley is giving the impression that Greece was not involved, which is ridiculous. It was done by GS and other on the orders of Greece.
 
Adisa said:
I know books were cooked. But Stanley is giving the impression that Greece was not involved, which is ridiculous. It was done by GS and other on the orders of Greece.
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They were involved, just look at the railway farce
 
Adisa said:
I've admitted that I'm a Europhile but even i, think Greece should be kicked out.
Think the notion that Greece leaving could cause a domino effect is a myth. Greece is a basket case.
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Would've caused massive issues for the banking system and bond markets.
 
Jippy said:
Would've caused massive issues for the banking system and bond markets.
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I think markets are becoming more mature, in that markets aren't overreacting to schocks as much as before. They are becoming more resilient.
A managed Greek exit will be painful, no doubt but it think markets will factor it in relatively quickly. A country like Italy is another ball game.
 
It would've wiped a few billion off European banks' balance sheets- may have tipped some over the edge. Look how weak Deutsche Bank and some of the Italian banks are still.
Contagion in the bond market was a real threat. You could see how yields spiked in the sothern European states.
 
Adisa said:
I think markets are becoming more mature, in that markets aren't overreacting to schocks as much as before. They are becoming more resilient.
A managed Greek exit will be painful, no doubt but it think markets will factor it in relatively quickly. A country like Italy is another ball game.
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Maybe now- don't think it was feasible in 2011.
 
Jippy said:
It would've wiped a few billion off European banks' balance sheets- may have tipped some over the edge. Look how weak Deutsche Bank and some of the Italian banks are still.
Contagion in the bond market was a real threat. You could see how yields spiked in the sothern European states.
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I doubt it. The Greek bailout already was an indirect bailout of the banks, you could have just made it a direct one. Also, a lot of the worst offenders were killed off anyway, AlpeAdria and others.
 
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Jippy said:
It would've wiped a few billion off European banks' balance sheets- may have tipped some over the edge. Look how weak Deutsche Bank and some of the Italian banks are still.
Contagion in the bond market was a real threat. You could see how yields spiked in the sothern European states.
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I admit. Back in 2012 and markets were very jumpy.
I know German banks have a lot of exposure to the Greece but I wasn't aware that Italian banks had the same.
My belief is that Greece is either going to default at some point or a huge chunk written off. It simply can't pay it back. The reforms and terms of the bailout are moving at snails pace. So that solace isn't even there.
But they are forecasting decent growth for next year. >2.5% I think. But it's not something another election can't ruin.
 
Adisa said:
I admit. Back in 2012 and markets were very jumpy.
I know German banks have a lot of exposure to the Greece but I wasn't aware that Italian banks had the same.
My belief is that Greece is either going to default at some point or a huge chunk written off. It simply can't pay it back. The reforms and terms of the bailout are moving at snails pace. So that solace isn't even there.
But they are forecasting decent growth for next year. >2.5% I think. But it's not something another election can't ruin.
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It clearly needs a managed programme of debt write-offs. Whether it will happen is anyone's guess. Sounds like the Troika talks aren't going smoothly right now.
 
fcbforever said:
1.: EU budget =/= Eurozone bailout programs. You are a net payer, but it still isn't what was reffered to, nobody denies GB was a net payer, although one playing under different rules then everyone else. But this money IS NOT used in any bailout programs, those are exclusive to Eurozone countries!

2.: As you may have noticed, quite a few people in Germany would have loved to just send Greece into bankrupty. Including me. Let those feckers sort out their mess themselves. I'm still convinced it would have been better to just let them crash in the long run, would have saved a lot of money and might have scared the Italians enough so they would've stopped being stupid.
And sorry to say, but I did know. Especially the Irish case is one I studied quite extensively, since it very well shows that Austerity can work under the right circumstances. Tbh, my knowledge is probably vastly superior to yours. It's a case study that is very common in political science atm. This will now relate to your point 3, because the Irish crisis wasn't one of currency, and no downrating of their currency would have ever saved them, the debt was just way too big. The Irish crisis was a combined crisis of the banking and real estate, which was caused by lax Irish regulations. I know you will use that to prove your "point" as long as you breathe, but in the context mentioned it is still wrong that GB participated in any of the Eurozone bailout programs, because it did not. Neither in the Greek, the Portuguese or the Irish bailout, the British paid one penny.
They decided to lend their neighbour money in a time of need, voluntarily. Please explain to me how the EU is responsible for that. Because it just isn't. If you are against lending money to states in crisis, you should probably protest the IMF, because GB has paid more money into that one in the past decade than it paid into any bailout programs in Europe.
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Like I say you can't have your own facts.

The UK has provided a total of €6.5bn (£5bn) via the EU for two bailouts: €3bn for Ireland in November 2010 and €3.5bn for Portugal in May 2011. According to the BBC.

Also don't let's try and pretend the EU didn't try to have the UK contribute to the Greek bailout because it did and was blocked from doing so by the UK govt in the latter rounds at least. (I'm not sure if the UK did contribute in the first instance or not)

On the IMF I don't mind the UK contributing to the IMF because it helps countries in dire need and gets its money back. It also champions debt write off for bond holders to a level where the country loaning the money can actual afford to pay. The EU on the other hand has repeatedly demanded no debt write off for Greece and the IMF has now reported on that bailout. You should look it up in the Greek bailout thread. The EU is going to struggle to loan more money to Greece because the IMF has to be in on any deal to do so and it isn't happy with what was done last time and won't partake in any future bailout without debt write off.
 
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Problem i have with MFI is Lagarde, how this non tax paying cnut had the front to call greeks tax shy defies belief
 
Stanley Road said:
Problem i have with MFI is Lagarde, how this non tax paying cnut had the front to call greeks tax shy defies belief
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It's a woman who said that if people couldn't pay for petrol, they could still ride bikes...
 
Drifter said:
London banks 'in advanced stages' of shifting operations to Paris

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-london-banks-advanced-stages-shifting-operations-paris-1595431
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Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
 
Kentonio said:
Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
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Oh don't worry. The foreign secretary will make sure to seal new trade deals to replace the old

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-saudi-arabia-of-twisting-and-abusing-islam

“That’s why you’ve got the Saudis, Iran, everybody, moving in, and puppeteering and playing proxy wars.”
 
Excellent. Now the UK is Europe's very own tax haven. Proud to serve their corporate overlords.
 
Member 5225 said:
As every corporate and frankly individual does, correct!
Don't hate the player, hate the game IMO
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I would imagine that is precisely what the poster you quoted was doing.
 
Kentonio said:
Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
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Rejoining wouldn't be a problem. We'd just have to accept all the conditions, including joining the Euro. Easy-peasy.

Just seen that Terri says the EU will punish us for leaving ! Well, not even an expert could have predicted that months and months ago. Next she'll tell us that they're planning to use it as an opportunity to tempt businesses to other European countries. Banks to Paris and so on.
 
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Just received an email update on the Associate EU Membership issues from Charles Goerens..

Dear Madam or Sir,

Yesterday I decided together with Guy Verhofstadt to withdraw my amendment on Associate EU Citizenship. We realised that this has become a very important issue that cannot await treaty change - as was my intention when I first tabled my amendment - since this might take years.

Yesterday evening, the House of Commons decided by a majority of almost 400 to support Theresa May’s plan to trigger article 50 by the end of March 2017. Hence the prospect that Article 50 will be invoked has become very real indeed.

The European Parliament will define its position on the Brexit agreement through a resolution during spring 2017. This seems to be the best opportunity to give Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt the possibility to enforce the Associate EU Citizenship.

I recognise this might come as a surprise to many of you, but please understand that the abovementioned procedure makes it much more likely for the Associate EU Citizenship to succeed than through an amendment.

Yours sincerely,

Charles Goerens
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