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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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  • Poll closed .
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Still wishing and hoping eh Paul?

Dream on, we are leaving, if that means no deal then that's what it is, but when Theresa shows them the money it will turn the EU heads, they can't help it!

PS. Sorry been out of contact for a while, bet you've missed me? When we last exchange posts you were trying to tell me how influential MEP's were and the British MEP's let the side down, or something in that vein. The Commissioners make the policies, the MEPS are something like our Lords they can approve or send back for amendments, but they are not the policy makers.. thought you would have known that?;)

Look. The pensioner discovered Wikipedia.
 
Going by pages around 37 and 38 I think it's assuming the deep and special partnership (although I haven't read it all yet) with some agreement with the EU.
I would have thought if WTO and losing passport rights were anticipated they would be highlighted in red unless of course that sort of comment was suppressed by the government.
It is odd- you'd think that they'd they cover off that scenario, at least in the annex, but can't find anything. From p247 it goes on about difficulties in making assumptions round the cost of the divorce bill, how long we continue to contribute and the additional costs we take on, eg massively expanding HMRC staff.
 
From what I gather London will remain the premier financial centre in Europe after Brexit.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-london-stays-worlds-top-finance-centre-despite-brexit-2017-9

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...inancial-capital-despite-brexit-a8054801.html

@fcbforever

And what of the countries that aren't in the EU, how do they trade?

First, I just mentioned that the City will lose clients which will mean a loss of income. As for your question, can you be more explicit?
 
I said we would be doing well to avoid a recession, in fact it would surprise me if we did. I didn't project those GDP figures, nor am I the decision maker at Goldman Sachs building their new European headquarters in London.

In case you have missed it, Goldman is moving substantial parts of their business to Frankfurt and Paris. Including their European headquarter.
 
From what I gather London will remain the premier financial centre in Europe after Brexit.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-london-stays-worlds-top-finance-centre-despite-brexit-2017-9

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...inancial-capital-despite-brexit-a8054801.html

@fcbforever

And what of the countries that aren't in the EU, how do they trade?
I'm unsure as to how those articles, which are based on the UK still being in the EU, are relevant to what will happen after the UK isn't in the EU anymore?

I suspect London will remain the world's biggest financial center for quite some time after Brexit, because, well, it's huge, but over time things are definitely going to change, slowly but surely. We probably won't see anyone overtake London, moreso the growth will spread in the likes of Paris, Frankfurt and to a lesser extent Amsterdam, Dublin, etc. as London shrinks.
 
At the end of the day there are reputable economists on both sides of this argument and my explanation is hardly a definitive explanation of what fiscal union entails anyway. So yeah, I can live with you disagreeing with me.

I agree with that and agree to disagree.

It's just a bit tiring that there's this narrative in the English speaking media that the euro is doomed and that it's common knowledge as to why, when in fact the reasoning behind it is just a economic theory that hasn't been proven by anyone.
 

I still don't understand. Are people genuinely thinking that the problem is with the physicality of the border? The problem is legal, the current borders are invisible but that's because the exact same set of rules are applied on both sides.
 
In case you have missed it, Goldman is moving substantial parts of their business to Frankfurt and Paris. Including their European headquarter.

They are opening hubs in Frankfurt and Paris. Their 'European Headquarters' are currently being built in London.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...brexit-leave-eu-lloyd-blankfein-a8027621.html

I'm unsure as to how those articles, which are based on the UK still being in the EU, are relevant to what will happen after the UK isn't in the EU anymore?

I suspect London will remain the world's biggest financial center for quite some time after Brexit, because, well, it's huge, but over time things are definitely going to change, slowly but surely. We probably won't see anyone overtake London, moreso the growth will spread in the likes of Paris, Frankfurt and to a lesser extent Amsterdam, Dublin, etc. as London shrinks.

The second article addresses Bloomberg's prediction on how the City will fare after Brexit so it isn't based on us still being in the EU.
 
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To be fair, France and the UK are extremely close. I don't understand why either side always try to make people believe something else.

Edit: And India.
Investopedia has us fifth, then India and France. Tbf, you can measure economy size in several different ways, which will throw up different results.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp

GDP per head is the more important figure anyway, as far as how prosperous or otherwise people are. I'd rather the lifestyle of the average Swiss than that of an Indian or Brazilian any day.
 
GDP per head is the more important figure anyway, as far as how prosperous or otherwise people are. I'd rather the lifestyle of the average Swiss than that of an Indian or Brazilian any day.

Agreed. Did @Jippy stole my identity?:lol:
 
I still don't understand. Are people genuinely thinking that the problem is with the physicality of the border? The problem is legal, the current borders are invisible but that's because the exact same set of rules are applied on both sides.
I guess more that we risk introducing a physicality through border checks.
Feck knows how to square this circle.
 
My biggest concern is who will pay the queen when grapes of wrath kicks in and your all in your dingys heading for the eu lands
 
New Zealand. Never been there, know very little about the place, but people I know who say they want to wash their hands of the rest of the world and live a quiet life as subsistence farmers always seem to settle on New Zealand.

I've lived and worked there, I don't believe they are financially dependant and trade deals with the US were always a hot topic in the media. Little detail on those trade deals but plenty of opinion which to me is interesting.

There is talk they are building their own little empire in the pacific nations and while doing this allow a number from those Islands to settle in NZ. Like here a lot of Kiwis cannot get on the housing ladder and so are renting.

A lot don't like their politicians though with the new Labour leader saying they are going to stop foreign investment into NZ housing some good things might happen.
 
Surely the latter. I think everyone is still working on the assumption a deal will be reached in the end. WTO rules would surely be much worse, regardless of what Brexiters say. I think even most of them would admit in the short term it will be a fair bit bumpier than these numbers imply. As evidenced by the ones that are also financial advisors telling investors to get their money the hell out of the UK.

I kind of see this differently, I believe in International trade yet also some protectionism and notice EU states already protect some of their industries and flout the EUs rules!
No problem with tariffs and believe those that want certain brand cars or other consumer durables will need to pay more and also we will get some things cheaper.

There is a glut of food in Europe so think we have leverage there in making trade deals.

Also we can cut costs, why have 10k troops in Germany, bring them back to the UK to spend their money here.

Teach our kids about nutrition - I have fixed bad mouth ulcers, constipation, angina, prostate pain, migraines and helped many other people yet none of them would pay for advice!!

My daughter is not vaccinated now in her last year at school and has won nearly everything. Me and some other people at work had problems with holiday vacs in our 20's so I decided that was it, no more.

Immigration for low paying jobs, this needs to change to be work visas for 5-7 years, that way we don't keep people earning low salaries that will need the state to support them in later years. Hopefully they would take away savings to support themselves elsewhere and possibly do some thing different.

Means testing for pensioners on things like free travel etc.

There are many things that can be done if the will is there.
 
To be fair, France and the UK are extremely close. I don't understand why either side always try to make people believe something else.

Edit: And India.
Investopedia has us fifth, then India and France. Tbf, you can measure economy size in several different ways, which will throw up different results.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp
Could have changed mid year. With their rate of growth for China and India can cover small absolute figures in a matter of months.

GDP per head is the more important figure anyway, as far as how prosperous or otherwise people are. I'd rather the lifestyle of the average Swiss than that of an Indian or Brazilian any day.
Not quite. China has a low GDP per capita but if you picked up the richest 60 million people in China they would in all likelihood be richer than the 60 million people in England. When it comes to trade per capita GDP not that important.
 
Not quite. China has a low GDP per capita but if you picked up the richest 60 million people in China they would in all likelihood be richer than the 60 million people in England. When it comes to trade per capita GDP not that important.

I said lifestyle, not trade per capita, and average, not richest whatever percentile. You have a point, it just doesn't relate to mine.
 
I said lifestyle, not trade per capita, and average, not richest whatever percentile. You have a point, it just doesn't relate to mine.
Since the ranking of the economies were being discussed in the context of trade, I thought it relevant to point out that averages of large masses matter little.
 
My daughter is not vaccinated now in her last year at school and has won nearly everything. Me and some other people at work had problems with holiday vacs in our 20's so I decided that was it, no more.

Lets hope the other kids who can't be vaccinated due to health problems and who rely on herd immunity to save them from life threatening diseases are as lucky.
 
I have to admit I was slightly confused about that bit of @The Outsider's post. I was following for the first bit about the food mountains. And I picked it up again at the end when it got into immigration and means testing pensions. But got a bit lost about the nutrition and vaccinations part, in terms of the relevance to the Brexit debate.

Unless there's a new jab you can get to stop you turning into a whinging remoaner?
 
Still wishing and hoping eh Paul?

Dream on, we are leaving, if that means no deal then that's what it is, but when Theresa shows them the money it will turn the EU heads, they can't help it!

PS. Sorry been out of contact for a while, bet you've missed me? When we last exchange posts you were trying to tell me how influential MEP's were and the British MEP's let the side down, or something in that vein. The Commissioners make the policies, the MEPS are something like our Lords they can approve or send back for amendments, but they are not the policy makers.. thought you would have known that?;)

MEPs are elected, the Lords are not - what about European Council - elected heads of states too..

Last week you said I was hoping for the demise of the Uk now you say I'm hoping for the saviour of the UK - have to be consistent
 
I have to admit I was slightly confused about that bit of @The Outsider's post. I was following for the first bit about the food mountains. And I picked it up again at the end when it got into immigration and means testing pensions. But got a bit lost about the nutrition and vaccinations part, in terms of the relevance to the Brexit debate.

Unless there's a new jab you can get to stop you turning into a whinging remoaner?

Or perhaps there’s a weird typo in there where he meant to say “caught” but it came out “won”?
 
Or perhaps there’s a weird typo in there where he meant to say “caught” but it came out “won”?

:)

As Kentonio says the non-vaccinators are just gaining 'free' advantage of herd immunity from those that have of course. A horrible person might think a bout of non life-changing nastiness might just serve them right a bit though.
 
MEPs are elected, the Lords are not

Neither are policy makers, both perform what amounts, at best to some refining of proposals, at worst a rubber stamp. Commissioners are not elected they are appointed, the are the 'big cheeses' in all of this, they make the decisions on policy, in theory they should not be controlled by the Heads of State, but usually pressure is applied when thought necessary.

What do you think the prospects for majority voting are in the EU moving forward, and what will the criteria be for retaining the veto and for how long can any country be allowed to hold on to their veto?
 
The dream was already so distant, there's a possibility that if it gets more distant it'll actually end up getting closer again, like travelling round the world.
Or tipping off the edge of the flat earth, given the delusion involved.

The uproar around the European city of culture stuff this arvo did make me laugh tbf. Like that's our biggest worry.