North Korea

You can bet your house that some people would rather have no peaceful resolution whatsoever than one that succeeded because of Trump.

That's why the left remains an object of ridicule.

Raoul can bet his house that some people (whatever that means, presumably more than 2) think your conclusion based on that premise is somehow legit, too. Terrific insight that.
 
Moon does the work, Trump takes credit. Oh well.
Far from convinced it will actually result in something meaningful though.
 

The SK president is very much in favour of reconciliation with the North. I think everyone will come out of it looking good, and will likely be a PR stunt for all involved. SK brokered the deal, their president can spin it as SK being tougher on American influence in the peninsula, Trump will get a concession of some sort, NK will get some sort of sanctions ease, or a reversal of sanctions pending specific conditions projected years in the future (when Trump isn't going to be president), China will take credit for doing background work, and while none of it might mean anything in terms of material changes, it could be a good political move for all involved.

Could even be Trump's Iran moment, only without any binding treaty, or that might be what he's thinking. Judging by the polls, and forecasts for the midterms, he needs something to divert attention from the Russia investigation.
 
Fair enough if something actually gets done about this. I wonder if Kim's started to realising his posturing could have actual consequences, none of which are beneficial, and that scaling back is far better for his own self-preservation and personal security.
 
What are the odds his kids are at the meeting and a Trump hotel pops up in Pyongyang within a year.

I mean, they've already got the Ryugyong which has been an empty shell for over 20 years. Trump likes hiding money in empty shell buildings...
 
So I hate how the orange man is turning many of us into brand new conspiracy theorists but how crazy of a thought would it be to think the Russians and/or Chinese have encouraged the North Koreans that if they enjoy the dissaray in the US govt that it would be good to put some notches on Trump's belt to give the impression his Bs actually works?
 
I think it's more the US realising that South Korean sentiments might turn against them if they persist with their hawkish approach. If North and south reconcile without their involvement, US won't have a play in the region.
 
I think it's more the US realising that South Korean sentiments might turn against them if they persist with their hawkish approach. If North and south reconcile without their involvement, US won't have a play in the region.

The north and south won't be reconciling since both have a completely different interpretation of reconciliation. The north views reconciliation as reunification with under the continued rule of the Kim family. The South views it as a coming together of a unified, democratic Korean state. Therefore neither is going to happen anytime soon. The likeliest reason this is happening is because Trump (through McMaster) has been making backchannel overtures to Kim to get together and discuss things, and Kim is starting to feel the bite of US sanctions and is generally running out of money. He likely sees Trump and the current South Korean president as his best chance to make some progress to stop the bleeding.

If Kim can strike a nuclear deal whilst keeping whatever nukes he has already acquired then he will come out of this looking pretty good.
 
If he actually has the meeting, then fair play to him.

Regardless of whether anything comes of it, it's still a big step tbh and one you have to give him credit for.
 
The north and south won't be reconciling since both have a completely different interpretation of reconciliation. The north views reconciliation as reunification with under the continued rule of the Kim family. The South views it as a coming together of a unified, democratic Korean state.

Kim family as a ceremonial head of state... total immunity for past actions and fek tons of money... I'm sure something could be worked out do Kim can get back to Switzerland to count the family gold, have regular courtside Lakers tickets yet still get all you cam eat state banquets.

I'm buying shares in Samsung though the second unification looks likely.. . Super cheap labour sources... kerching
 
The cynical part of me is wondering if this is North Korea’s way of planning to humiliate Trump.

They know he pussied out of visiting the DMZ last year. I can see Kim insisting that negotiations take place in North Korea (when was the last time he actually left NK?!) and in that case there’s no way Trump would go.

So you’ll have a situation where Kim ridicules Trump for missing a chance to de-escalate tension by joining him for face to face negotitations and Trump turns into a child again by saying Rocket Man is too stupid to travel to a neutral venue.
 
Moon has worked hard on improving the relationship with North Korea from the day he was elected. That's why he got NK to visit/join the Olympics, that's why KJU and Moon will meet on south korean territory next month. Sure we don't know if Trump might be the reason for this but to me it seems far more logical to give Moon credit for this considering it has been a steady development and Trump and KJU meeting would be "just" the next step.

That being said nothing has really happened yet and while it's good to see that they are willing to meet we'll have to wait and see if it will actually mean anything.
 
Wonder if Donald will have a dig at Obama when he receives his Nobel Prize.

"I actually did something for it, you know? Bigly!"

If he manages to solve this problem then he'll deserve it a thousand times more than Obama.
 
I find it hard to believe that after investing so much money, effort, time and prestige on the development of nukes Kim will now agree to anything that diminshes his power. Nor can I see Trump offering anything that will conciliate NK. Maybe they'll both come away saying "I tried but the other guy..."

In other words, I smell a rat.
 
I find it hard to believe that after investing so much money, effort, time and prestige on the development of nukes Kim will now agree to anything that diminshes his power. Nor can I see Trump offering anything that will conciliate NK. Maybe they'll both come away saying "I tried but the other guy..."

In other words, I smell a rat.

Kim could agree to freeze his program with the knowledge that he is already a nuclear power and has a certain amount of nukes already developed and ready to deploy, so a freeze would only prohibit him from further development. He would then have the threat of further development in his back pocket if things don't go his way. On the brighter side, he would benefit tremendously if sanctions are lifted and NK can do a bit more trade with other countries.

From Trump's perspective, he is so desperate for a political win that he will be happy to put any deal together to make himself look competent to domestic constituents.
 
The cynical part of me is wondering if this is North Korea’s way of planning to humiliate Trump.

They know he pussied out of visiting the DMZ last year. I can see Kim insisting that negotiations take place in North Korea (when was the last time he actually left NK?!) and in that case there’s no way Trump would go.

So you’ll have a situation where Kim ridicules Trump for missing a chance to de-escalate tension by joining him for face to face negotitations and Trump turns into a child again by saying Rocket Man is too stupid to travel to a neutral venue.


I am trying to think what is the catch. Its easy to be cynical after decades of poor relations. Lets hope it is a very successful meeting and teh military nonsense stops on both sides.
 
I think it's a step that makes all sides look credible, whatever the results and whatever the genuine intent. The reality is the previous approach from the Korean War on have been nothing short of disastrous.

I'm no fan of Trump but his persona is a large part of how this would come about. He's been saying since the campaign that he would do it because after all he "makes deals". For once I think his arrogance can work for the better. That said I think the main factor has been China and South Korea's developing policies - Both have nicely aligned to get Kim involved.

Given the historic nature of it you'd hope something positive can come out of it but it will probably just lead to an initial agreement which will soon be reneged, with both sides claiming to be wronged. As it has every time before.

Still better diplomacy that war. Saddam's idea to live debate GWB may have lead to the greatest moment in history of the world. Regardless of whether it lead to war.
 


That's a distinct possibility. If the talks don't go well or if the North Koreans renege on their side of the bargain as they have in the past, then things could go very badly.
 
I'm in Kim's corner on this one. I want him to say something about Trumps tiny hands, ask him about pornstar fecking, see if he'll sell him Ivanka...shit like that.
 
Kim could agree to freeze his program with the knowledge that he is already a nuclear power and has a certain amount of nukes already developed and ready to deploy, so a freeze would only prohibit him from further development. He would then have the threat of further development in his back pocket if things don't go his way. On the brighter side, he would benefit tremendously if sanctions are lifted and NK can do a bit more trade with other countries.

From Trump's perspective, he is so desperate for a political win that he will be happy to put any deal together to make himself look competent to domestic constituents.
That looks like a win-win situation for Kim. Could Trump sell that as a victory ?
 
That looks like a win-win situation for Kim. Could Trump sell that as a victory ?

He would attempt to sell it as a victory because he :

A - would claim it was his policy of pressure that got Kim to capitulate and come to the table to talk to the South
B - accomplished something no other previous US President could
C - used his own unique "Art of the Deal" style to avert what could've been a massive war (and therefore we should trust his peculiar ways in other aspects of his Presidency as well).

His base are extremely irrational and would lap this sort of thing up.