Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Mb194dc said:
Yes hopefully, without a clear objective. France to the rescue? Force the UK to make a decision and vote it through parliament by the original date. That is the only sane thing to do.

I don't think JRM position has changed, just media Spin. If May can get a legally binding change to nullify the "backstop" and allow us to leave unilaterally or a fixed end date for it the ERG might vote for it. I can't see the agreement getting close to passing without a solid legally binding change to make sure the UK cannot be trapped in it forever.

I don't see now though why the EU would offer anything. My opinion is that the EU don't want the UK to leave. The EU now know for sure parliament won't allow no deal and there would be a delay (revoke / second ref?) instead. So why offer anything? Just do nothing, refuse an extension as France suggested and wait for the UK to fold.
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That's what I was hoping!

I was banking on them not allowing* Britain to crash out either as that benefits no-one.

If an extension (which has always been in offer) is taken off the table then it guarantees the worst possible scenario for all.

I've noticed that lots of German papers here have started rubbing their hands together and running pieces adding up the sums BREXIT may be worth to different EU countries in possible relocated business and new HQs being set up, money + jobs etc) and I was waiting for them to be the ones to suddenly decide that time's up, we're bored and we kinda want shot of you now!

*I totally agree that it is a wholly British problem made worse by weak and inept British politicians and an antiquated British political process. And the whole shambles should have highlighted to the people of Britain that it was not European politics failing them but their own politicians. However if there is a real appetite to want Britain to remain then once May's deal (the only deal, and unchangeable) is rejected by parliament they must allow time for it to be put to the people with remain on the ballot … surely!

EDIT: I don't know enough about this to be making statements. I hope it's clear I'm asking questions because it sounds like you guys are very well informed.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No he said he wouldn't object if the UK gave a clear idea where they wanted to go. He said the UK now has to make a definite choice.

But not if they were to continue going round in circles and he wouldn't be the only one who would object.

It's make your mind up time. And parliament can't agree on anything.
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He is absolutely correct. My view entirely.
We have had enough time and are just running the clock down; a tactic that may ultimately work.

The Labour motion to set up a permanent customs union with the EU has just been rejected by the HoC.
That leaves the three basic options. Accept the WA, accept a no deal or allow a further referendum (so called peoples vote). Quite how the logistics of another vote would work, I have no idea.
I still sense that the WA will be carried if some suitable wording on the backstop can be added as an appendix to it.
 
Sweet Square said:

:lol:
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Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

Again, great caution must be taken with hypothetical polls in such a fluid political context. But if I were Mann I would want some evidence that his Brexit policy would be more popular than a pro-remain stance. Not only does that evidence simply not exist; the data we have suggests precisely the opposite.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn
 
berbatrick said:
The centrists have won, Corbyn needs to go. Inept and total misreading of the political situation. He was steady on 36-40% of the vote before the TIG and then this referendum rubbish which will bleed some more votes.
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Nah your freaking out a bit here. Corbyn was just following party policy, in the end he had to pick a second referendum or risky pissing off the most of the labour base, so he took a punt(although personally I think it was the wrong choice).

As for the centrists, people like the TIG will fade away within the year or they were to start a party(Which is far from certain)they'll fail
completely at whenever the next election is.
 
Buster15 said:
He is absolutely correct. My view entirely.
We have had enough time and are just running the clock down; a tactic that may ultimately work.

The Labour motion to set up a permanent customs union with the EU has just been rejected by the HoC.
That leaves the three basic options. Accept the WA, accept a no deal or allow a further referendum (so called peoples vote). Quite how the logistics of another vote would work, I have no idea.
I still sense that the WA will be carried if some suitable wording on the backstop can be added as an appendix to it.
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Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
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Anybody who seriously believes that keeping the no deal option on the table as a negotiation tactic is going to have any affect on the EU has to be crazy.
Even TM seems to have realised that now.
I really wish that the EU would come out and say no extension to the leaving date - just make your mind up.
That would focus MP'S attention on the three forthcoming votes.
I just hope that the default position of no deal gets defeated as I believe it will.
 
If you are for leave the only real reason you are against a new referendum is that you think it will deliver a different result.

If you were for remain you know leave could still occur but at least there would be a clear choice of how to leave now that the options are actually known.

Merely shouting "the will of the people" achieves nothing apart from possibly us leaving with no deal which is by far the worst of many shitty options.
 
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This man is the chief political correspondent for a major newspaper. It's incredible.

He's getting absolutely slaughtered in the replies.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
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And round in circles we will keep on going.

The WA doesn't work nor suit anyone on either side - maybe a tactic to try and unite people from both camps to compromise, but I don't think May has the capacity to think like that.
No Deal would be a disaster and will surely never get enough support, and could only happen if EU pull the plug on talks, and we have no WA in place.
Peoples Vote - huge questions surrounding it, it can only be a Remain or Leave vote, but then we need to know what the Leave option entails, and most importantly there MUST be an informed discussion on it, and not everyone lobbing shite in the hope it sticks.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
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Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
 
Mogget said:


This man is the chief political correspondent for a major newspaper. It's incredible.

He's getting absolutely slaughtered in the replies.
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Technology has exposed the idiots, that's one of the perks of social media.
 
Maticmaker said:
Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
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The ones that would hoover up the businesses probably have more to lose than to gain. Ireland would appear to be the biggest benefactor but they'd have a hard border in the North. Germany, France, Belgium and The Netherlands would lose a big trading partner.

Losing the UK for them would be bad but they'd rather that than gaining some businesses.

I've seen nothing to suggest other countries want the UK to leave, they just want this ordeal to be over with.
 
horsechoker said:
The ones that would hoover up the businesses probably have more to lose than to gain. Ireland would appear to be the biggest benefactor but they'd have a hard border in the North. Germany, France, Belgium and The Netherlands would lose a big trading partner.

Losing the UK for them would be bad but they'd rather that than gaining some businesses.

I've seen nothing to suggest other countries want the UK to leave, they just want this ordeal to be over with.
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Ireland would be hit hard by a no-deal Brexit, probably nearly as bad as the UK in the short term, no way around it really. I think Dublin will benefit but the rest of the country will suffer. The only positive is we'll have the EU backing us, hopefully.
 
Sweet Square said:
Nah your freaking out a bit here. Corbyn was just following party policy, in the end he had to pick a second referendum or risky pissing off the most of the labour base, so he took a punt(although personally I think it was the wrong choice).

As for the centrists, people like the TIG will fade away within the year or they were to start a party(Which is far from certain)they'll fail
completely at whenever the next election is.
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He's spent the last two years alienating the centrists and people who want to remain in the EU. He has now changed tack and is trying to keep the remainers on side, alienating all those who want the country to leave the EU. This isn't a 'he can't win' situation, or well it is but it is one of his own making.
 
Relfy said:
And round in circles we will keep on going.

The WA doesn't work nor suit anyone on either side - maybe a tactic to try and unite people from both camps to compromise, but I don't think May has the capacity to think like that.
No Deal would be a disaster and will surely never get enough support, and could only happen if EU pull the plug on talks, and we have no WA in place.
Peoples Vote - huge questions surrounding it, it can only be a Remain or Leave vote, but then we need to know what the Leave option entails, and most importantly there MUST be an informed discussion on it, and not everyone lobbing shite in the hope it sticks.
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Why?
 
Maticmaker said:
Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
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I though the EU had already said withdrawal can be unilateral but a delay has to be agreed to by the EU?
 
Wibble said:
I though the EU had already said withdrawal can be unilateral but a delay has to be agreed to by the EU?
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The message seems to be that the EU would only agree to an extension if there were a definite reason for it, such as to prepare for a clear and binding referendum or election. I think just wanting more time to debate would not be enough.
 
Buster15 said:
Anybody who seriously believes that keeping the no deal option on the table as a negotiation tactic is going to have any affect on the EU has to be crazy.
Even TM seems to have realised that now.
I really wish that the EU would come out and say no extension to the leaving date - just make your mind up.
That would focus MP'S attention on the three forthcoming votes.
I just hope that the default position of no deal gets defeated as I believe it will.
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Relfy said:
And round in circles we will keep on going.

The WA doesn't work nor suit anyone on either side - maybe a tactic to try and unite people from both camps to compromise, but I don't think May has the capacity to think like that.
No Deal would be a disaster and will surely never get enough support, and could only happen if EU pull the plug on talks, and we have no WA in place.
Peoples Vote - huge questions surrounding it, it can only be a Remain or Leave vote, but then we need to know what the Leave option entails, and most importantly there MUST be an informed discussion on it, and not everyone lobbing shite in the hope it sticks.
Click to expand...

Maticmaker said:
Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
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To stop a no-deal, parliament have to agree on something, even if they vote against no deal, without agreeing on something it will happen by default and they're not giving any impression that they're even close to agreeing anything.
 
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This was what the Brexiters wanted when they voted against immigrants from the EU, wasn't it?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
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This was what the Brexiters wanted when they voted against immigrants from the EU, wasn't it?
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:lol: My wife is part of the non-EU stats, being American and having moved here in September 2016. My mother, who voted to leave, doesn't consider her case as similar to an EU citizen moving here. My mother isn't necessarily racist but she doesn't seem to understand it's (almost) the same principle.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
To stop a no-deal, parliament have to agree on something, even if they vote against no deal, without agreeing on something it will happen by default and they're not giving any impression that they're even close to agreeing anything.
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True to a certain degree. Everyone (especially including the EU negotiators) knows 500+ MPs don't really want Brexit though.

Best thing the EU can do is refuse an extension of A50 until a concrete course of action is voted through parliament. That is what Macron was suggesting I think, and it's pretty sensible. Unless the EU wants this to drag on indefinitely, need to have the stones to force the UK in to a decision.
 
Maticmaker said:
Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
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Could be wrong but i'm pretty sure the ECJ ruled that the UK can withdraw Art 50 unilaterally. So she wouldn't need the agreement of the 27.
 
That'sHernandez said:
:lol: My wife is part of the non-EU stats, being American and having moved here in September 2016. My mother, who voted to leave, doesn't consider her case as similar to an EU citizen moving here. My mother isn't necessarily racist but she doesn't seem to understand it's (almost) the same principle.
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they probably think that as long as it's not the Polish taking their jobs then it's fine.
 
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