SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I didn't just hint at it, I stated it - but it still seems to represent a relatively unimpressive dip from our peak considering we've been confined to our homes for about 4 weeks. In the same time frame and despite much more widespread testing Italy had gone up to a peak of 6.5k cases and back down to around 4.5k. Spain had gone up to 8.2k then down 5k flat, again with more extensive testing. We've gone up to 5.9k and mosied on back down to about 5k if we're generous. This implies that the descent from our own (observable) peak is likely to be that much shallower.

Other than today's count the same sort of pattern seems to be revealing itself through the death stats too (Though day of reporting is a relatively inaccurate stat). Italy's peak in reported deaths was 919 and its fall from then on seems to be shallow but readily observable. Same is true of Spain. Ours is also apparently dropping but at an even shallower pitch.

I maintain that that is a bit shit.

We need to move away from outright country comparisons.

The UK acted late on social distancing orders. Late on stay home and light and late on ‘lockdown’ orders.

The numbers will never mirror. I also think it’s a bit shit. But I think we’re far removed from, and too far past direct comparisons.

Appreciably, it’s not my business to tell you how to frame a post, so hands up on that.
 
Ideal, so i take it we h

Exactly, people who are saying this isn't a lockdown are having a laugh, we're not allowed to see literally anyone. Being allowed to exercise once a day is a basic human right.
Yup, it all stems from the obsession with contrasting and comparing every countries response, lockdowns, death figures, etc. Every country is different and there are so many different factors at play. You have two posters from Italy criticising lockdown measures here for presumably being too light and police not getting involved. But policing in uk and Italy are completely different. Police here would be crucified if they became pedantic and forceful with the lockdown measures.

@Penna
I don’t doubt your sister saw that, but like I said there’ll be people flouting the rules. And if you you’re selective enough you can find examples. I worked in Finsbury Park a few weeks ago and there were lots of people trying to dick about at some point in the day but for the vast majority of the day it was fine and most are obeying.
 
Yup, it all stems from the obsession with contrasting and comparing every countries response, lockdowns, death figures, etc. Every country is different and there are so many different factors at play. You have two posters from Italy criticising lockdown measures here for presumably being too light and police not getting involved. But policing in uk and Italy are completely different. Police here would be crucified if they became pedantic and forceful with the lockdown measures.

@Penna
I don’t doubt your sister saw that, but like I said there’ll be people flouting the rules. And if you you’re selective enough you can find examples. I worked in Finsbury Park a few weeks ago and there were lots of people trying to dick about at some point in the day but for the vast majority of the day it was fine and most are obeying.
Honestly some people seem to have a fettish for a full lockdown, it's bizarre!

Me and my friend have/had a long term plan to set up a life for ourselves in either Portugal or Spain, we are now both in full agreement that the latter is well and truly off the table now solely down to the extreme lockdown measures, it's inhumane denying a person fresh air and natural light.
 
@Leroy The Red, I may be in Italy but I have a good idea what's going on in the UK, we have family there who we talk to every day. My sister took me on a 45-min walk with her on a Whatsapp video call the other day, there were loads of people wandering around in her big town. There are restrictions, but it's not a lockdown and you can pretty much guarantee you won't get stopped by the police if you're just walking around. You're allowed to take a whole hour's exercise and even drive to get to the place where you want to exercise!

My initial point was that I can't understand why British people don't think that's sufficient freedom, as far as getting out and about is concerned. It's too much freedom, in a pandemic situation. They've even roped off the street benches here, so you don't spend any longer than is absolutely necessary outside your house. You get your essentials, you go straight home.

The UK had a lot of time to look at what was happening in Italy and act quickly. I predict that the UK will end up with a lot more deaths than Italy.
Yes, I think you are correct unfortunately about what's happening. Too many British people are stubborn and a bit selfish about this, thinking that it won't happen to me. Quite a few people have said to me that they'll do what they want, regarding being outside, with the attitude of I'm being careful so I'll be okay. There are more than I thought too with this irresponsible stupid behaviour.

Near to us there is parking for up to two hours, and the amount of people who park up, go for walks and use the park for those full two hours or more is very high. The lack of traffic wardens giving tickets also is leading to people staying in our park here for as long as it suits them it seems.

Selfish people in a little bubble of their own lives, or just completely unaware and uncaring of others or the country. It's the me, me, me, I, I, I attitude that has taken over lots of people nowadays.

Mini rant over :)
 
Minutes of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) 21 Feb: corona threat "moderate"

minute 2.4 on page 5: https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/640968322003

PH asked the committee if anyone thought that the PHE risk assessment should change. No objections were raised however after the meeting, JE emailed to say that he was online but for some technical reason could not be heard. JE believes that the risk to the UK population (in the PHE risk assessment) should be high, as there is evidence of ongoing transmission in Korea, Japan and Singapore, as well as in China.

https://mega.nz/file/rxs3CaJJ#8wth6thR2bmsu9HwOdAz82F4Z6n8l2d3hyG-fAKJBwE

 
Last edited:
Maybe the risk is zero as far as you're concerned, that's true - but other people aren't going to isolated areas. My point really was that it's not a "lockdown" - you can basically be out of the house all day if you choose to do so, because there's no enforcement.

Most people complaining about being locked-down are talking rubbish in the UK. The folk it's affecting are people not getting paid or losing their jobs/businesses and people who've actually got sick or have loved ones who've got sick. If you're working from home, not infected and being paid, not being able to go out for a meal or to the pub or football is absolutely nothing.

I don't think true lockdown is realistic. It isn't enforceable in most places, we just don't have the resources.
 
Minutes of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) 21 Feb: corona threat "moderate"

minute 2.4 on page 5: https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/640968322003

PH asked the committee if anyone thought that the PHE risk assessment should change. No objections were raised however after the meeting, JE emailed to say that he was online but for some technical reason could not be heard. JE believes that the risk to the UK population (in the PHE risk assessment) should be high, as there is evidence of ongoing transmission in Korea, Japan and Singapore, as well as in China.


Cheers but it's saying that file/link has been removed. Still interested to read it if you have another source.
 
My brother-in-law owns a couple of barber shops and lockdown has crippled him. He is paying 6 staff out of his own pocket currently and his landlord is being a nightmare. Lease is due to soon with a fairly big payment due on renewal and when he asked for some co-operation the landlord said that tenants that are difficult during this period won’t get their leases renewed. My sister found various websites on how to commit suicide including videos on his laptop after he was acting funny. I can imagine this is far from an isolated case as it stands and it’s put huge strain on the family. I’m probably going to need to give them a big chunk of my house deposit just to get through this period as I’m quite fortunate with my position/employer at the minute and not at risk. Hope this virus fecks off soon.

My message to your brother in law would be that his skillset will very much be in demand once we're out of this, albeit, he may have to rebuild his business upto its former level. I'm desperate for a haircut, and know many of my friends and family are in the same place (social media is full of men gradually looking like cavemen). Once lockdown measures are able to be relaxed in a way that businesses can operate using social distancing etc, barber shops will have record business given the backlog and people preferring shorter cuts in summer months. I predict it will be a nightmare being able to get an appointment.

Also, its very good that he cares for his employee's but that can't be at the cost of his family's basic needs. Also, isnt that what the Governments furlough scheme was about?
 
I don't think true lockdown is realistic. It isn't enforceable in most places, we just don't have the resources.
People are doing exactly what they're being told to do, at least around here. That's probably why we've only had one non-fatal case of Covid-19 in the village, despite the high number of very old people who live here (and we also have a large nursing home right in the centre).

Honestly, I'll never be able to become an Italian citizen because my language skills aren't up to the required standard, but I'm quite proud to be living here right now.
 
Do we have initial reports from WHO solidarity trial?

Also Remdesivir, how many countries have the ability to produce it, if it proves effective?

Any countries could have developed "remdemsivir" or "whatever the medicine" if they wanted, it's such an emergency and special case it's not hard to build a factory for mass product (assuming the raw ingredients isn't scarce).

If the patent holder opens up their secret and recipe that is
 
Honestly man, it’s not fcuking hard to do MILLIONS of percentage points better than they’re doing.

Principally because they’re trying to answer the question : “How do we get back to normal”

(+/-) April to September = 5-7 months of schooling

We don’t need normal.

Parents need relief.
Kids need leadership.

The news is shit. The papers are shit. Social media is shit.

I didn’t want to give examples as it would seem as though I'm judging people.

But would it really be that hard to task Stormzy (assume he’s the biggest UK star right now) to work with 50 samples online, have a producer walk and talk through beat timing, musical composition, host a YouTube live, throw in some stories about getting in to music, and after 8 hours in 4 weeks have a 3 minute song made. Kids can throw together something in the same time. Lyrical, music only, whatever. You don’t need the 30 kids from Class 3B to watch. You need the 4 kids from all of the Class 3B’s in the country to watch.

In these times we are so far apart, we can digitally bring together those with common interests.

Kids don’t need super polished content to learn. Let presenters mess up, laugh, be humans.

You could combine this content with Public Service Announcements.

IT’S. So. Fcuking. Simple.

This desperation to open schools will see children’s time wasted. Give them paths of learning. That’s it.

My 11 year old niece HATED cooking. Hated eggs. Ate sh1te food. After a weekend with us she went home, made her mum scrambled eggs on toast. Eggs, cream, salt, pepper, butter, chilli flakes, a few herbs on toast. Her mum thought it was witchcraft. No. I just had time to teach a kid something. I am not a teacher. I spilled things, had to throw an egg away. I didn’t have to worry about life and and and.

We do not need great teachers right now. Teachers need a break, they need to be at home, safe, until classrooms are safe.

We cannot make parents into teachers. They are good at all the other things that puts food on the table, and good at being parents.

What we CAN do, is give society some kind of loose, band-aid learning path to keep kids engaged and parents sane for a few hours every day.

The Government is fcuking this up. More than it’s fcuking up the Virus response.
Good post!
 
I take your point but it can still be done. It’s done in Spain, Italy and France. People need permission slips to be out and about or you’re fecked. It’s just that in UK and Ireland we believe our governments could never do that to the people. Why? Push come to shove, if they need to enforce it they can. Address the nation, tell them it’s happening and anyone on the streets who shouldn’t be will be forcibly detained. You’ll see empty streets pretty soon.

I stress though it’s not what im advocating. I’m just arguing that it’s entirely possible to do

I disagree personally. I think if they could, they would. They would have had this conversation in my eyes. Just my opinion obviously.


I've not seen it mentioned much (perhaps my own fault) but Vietnam seems to have done incredibly well suppressing the spread. Reading the overview it's comes across as a well-planned, dynamic response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Vietnam

It says they've been prepared since mid-December, and activated their Emergency Epidemic Prevention Centre in January. While Boris was still shaking hands with coronavirus patients in March.

Always difficult to compare between countries, but for context Ho Chi Minh has a similar population and density to London, albeit less international mobility. Hanoi similar.

Highlights the under-preparedness of other countries - it wasn't taken seriously enough. It's understandable but governments should have teams of experts/researchers to take these things seriously by default given the monumental risk to society. Either the teams don't exist, weren't fit for purpose, or weren't listened to. It's not a coincidence that countries with experience dealing with similar viruses in the past have had some of the sharpest responses. It's been negligent of other countries not to have proactively assessed this and drawn on the experience.

It goes to show that through logical methods (organised testing, tracing and individual quarantines) the number of cases can be limited to a few thousand rather than a few hundred thousand. It spreads like a bushfire.



I was there in 2009 during the height of the swine flu outbreak, they were very on the ball. My work-mate got back from there in February and said they were also very on the ball, testing left right and centre.
 
Strange. I just tried again and it work for me. Try from here:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/group...iratory-virus-threats-advisory-group#meetings
2. Scroll down to 'Meetings' and click on 'NERVTAG: meeting minutes and papers'
3. That takes you onto the 'appbox' site, click first icon 'Minutes of meetings'
4. Click first box '2020 - NERVTAG Extraordinary Meetings'
5. Click 2nd option 'NERVTAG 7 Minutes 21 February 2020_V2.pdf''
Nice one, got it open now thanks. Will have a read.
 
People are doing exactly what they're being told to do, at least around here. That's probably why we've only had one non-fatal case of Covid-19 in the village, despite the high number of very old people who live here (and we also have a large nursing home right in the centre).

Honestly, I'll never be able to become an Italian citizen because my language skills aren't up to the required standard, but I'm quite proud to be living here right now.

There is absolutely differences in areas based on whether people are knob heads. Maybe that's a bit harsh, but it's good you live in a nice area. Some of the differences between certain shops is eye opening. I had a horrific experience in co op in a dodgy area where 20-30 people were inside the store with no management enforcing social distancing, and we're talking a small local type shop!
 
There is absolutely differences in areas based on whether people are knob heads. Maybe that's a bit harsh, but it's good you live in a nice area. Some of the differences between certain shops is eye opening. I had a horrific experience in co op in a dodgy area where 20-30 people were inside the store with no management enforcing social distancing, and we're talking a small local type shop!
That's bad. The people round here aren't well-to-do, but they seem to work together well. In the pharmacy, you can queue inside if you want, but people very quickly took it upon themselves to wait outside. It's certainly better for the pharmacist as she then only has one person in the shop at any one time.
 


An Ireland without pubs. Dear god.


was thinking about this the other day. How on earth could you enforce it even if you limit the amount of people in? Drunk people gravitate to each other. That’s before we talk about the pokey toilets and disgusting bathroom habits. They’d be a hive for all kinds of virus. Safer getting the cans in
 
The government is being exposed for the blunt instrument that it is on the education front.

Honestly I’d have expected it to reach out to television networks. Have a few STEM and PE tv programs rolled out, just 2 or 3 a week. Popular faces of tv rolled into the odd home existence.

- A science program to show 5-10 year olds how to make bouncy balls
- A popular footballer talking about keepy uppies
- An athlete talking about keeping fit and how walking is important
- Someone talking about phases of the moon, advising kids to look out the window every night.
- A musician talking about song structure, beats, how to play an instrument

I’m not saying the National Curriculum isn’t important.

But there’s also a chasm between Nothing, and 5 Days a week school.

1 Day a week seems to be waaaaay to close to the latter, than a sensible starting point.

Shit, weaponise this thing. Math and English is hard at a distance. Breed creativity. Get supermarkets selling 8 colour paint and paper at £1. Have a fcuking National Rainbow Unicorn painting competition. Collate responses. Put them on tv. Have a website that cycles through creations every 10 seconds. Get kids to record 15 seconds to a camera. Put that somewhere. Have some basic cooking shows on. Every kid should leave this with the ability to make an Omlette. Right now there are 14 year olds that can’t boil a fcuking egg. Have understandable 13 year olds read 5 year olds books on an approved .gov YouTube channel. Let kids help each other. Give them a structure outside of ‘When will school open mum’.

You can bring people together, help out parents and stop kids feeling isolated without gambling anyone’s health.

Trying to use existing structures right now is just so painfully stupid. Like, blood boiling stupidity.

I don’t need to see someone walk in their garden. I really don’t. I don’t care about it. It doesn’t help me. It doesn’t really help society. It reduces us all to look at one persons existence. It’s looking through the wrong end of the telescope. It’s generating ad revenue online and letting people consume more nonsensical shite.


You seem to have missed the most important point of going to a school for primary school kids (and arguably secondary school kids too). It’s not about STEM or PE, boiling eggs, or fecking unicorn painting competitions. It’s about learning how to interact with their peers and starting to establish themselves as individuals outside the family unit. No amount of youtube tutorials will fix any of that.

Parents and schools are working together to keep education ticking over and there’s a ton of resources out there to help them already. More resources than you could possibly ever use.

None of that will stop the inevitable harm to their development of the ongoing social isolation so long as the schools stay closed. There’s no easy answer here, as nobody knows how big a factor schools play in spreading infection. Once we get an idea about that, getting kids back to school should be a priority. Everything else is a poor substitute.
 
My message to your brother in law would be that his skillset will very much be in demand once we're out of this, albeit, he may have to rebuild his business upto its former level. I'm desperate for a haircut, and know many of my friends and family are in the same place (social media is full of men gradually looking like cavemen). Once lockdown measures are able to be relaxed in a way that businesses can operate using social distancing etc, barber shops will have record business given the backlog and people preferring shorter cuts in summer months. I predict it will be a nightmare being able to get an appointment.

Also, its very good that he cares for his employee's but that can't be at the cost of his family's basic needs. Also, isnt that what the Governments furlough scheme was about?
Why doesn’t any lad not have his own set of clippers? I got a pair at Christmas costing 20 quid and they’ve given me a decent enough number 4 all over. Unless all you lads are looking for fancy designs and shit, self cut at home. Hell my wife even learned from YouTube how to cut her own hair and it looks good
 
That's kind of how it is where I am, in Italy. There are police and army patrolling, and helicopters often overhead. There are regular checkpoints where you're expected to produce a document that justifies why you need to be outside. It's up to a €5000 fine/jail time if your reason isnt good enough. I go to the supermarket once a week and that's the only time I go outside. The streets are deserted.

My entire family is in the UK, as are most of my friends. Going for long walks and runs every day is not lockdown. It's also a worry when you see how slowly Italy's cases are dropping despite such drastic measures.

What are the theories for the slow decline in new cases? Essential workers infecting each other? Slowly working its way through households that already have cases? People sneaking out of home to socialise?

It’s really odd that you can have such a total lockdown yet still have a relatively high number of new cases every day. Odd and concerning.
 
was thinking about this the other day. How on earth could you enforce it even if you limit the amount of people in? Drunk people gravitate to each other. That’s before we talk about the pokey toilets and disgusting bathroom habits. They’d be a hive for all kinds of virus. Safer getting the cans in

There is also an assumption that social centres of gathering would be able to remain profitable with limited number restrictions. Restaurants generally require between 50%-65% table occupancy over an entire week to break even, and profit comes only after that. Am sure similar will apply to pubs.

If you insist every other table is vacant, how are these businesses meant to operate under 'limited numbers' restrictions? They'll end up increasing their debt and quickly bankrupt themselves. Unless the Government agree to make up the shortfall, I'm not sure how it work. Likewise, how long can a Government keep taking on debt, or how will businesses ever pay it back unless Government agrees to a 'Debt Jubilee'.
 
Last edited:
Your last point is interesting. The UK does seem to be tracking Italy in terms of deaths, give or take a few, so how can that be when Italy's lockdown is supposedly so much more severe? I've seen theories about smoking, hugging, age demographics but it still makes you wonder whether the more severe lockdown is actually achieving anything. For the record I'm in favour of enforcing the lock down rules, but I'm not a hundred percent sure I'm right.

The UK was tracking Italy on the upslope but i think it looks to be deviating now. Italy had a 5 day period of reporting over 800 deaths each day but within a week dropped back down to 500-600 and has been slowly declining since. The UK first broke 800 deaths 12 days ago and only yesterday reported 888. The descent from the peak is taking longer.

This is also reflected in the case numbers, where there were 11 days between Italy's first and last days breaking 5,000 new cases. The UK is on 15 days and counting. That is even more worrying when you consider the UK is testing ~20,000 people per day and Italy is testing almost 70,000.


Yeah British and Italian police are very different. We police by consent over here. The idea that those policies will be adopted here is naive, especially as the vast majority of people are respecting the rules of the lockdown.

Why should people not be allowed to go for a run or walk everyday? As for the last bit, maybe that tells you that regimental lockdowns aren’t the be and end all answer like a lot of people seem to think it is.

It depends what you mean by respecting the rules. Is activity reduced? Yes. Is it reduced by as much as countries with true lockdowns? No. Italy and Spain have reduced their activity in parks and outdoor spaces by ~90% compared to the UK at 37%.
 
Why doesn’t any lad not have his own set of clippers? I got a pair at Christmas costing 20 quid and they’ve given me a decent enough number 4 all over. Unless all you lads are looking for fancy designs and shit, self cut at home. Hell my wife even learned from YouTube how to cut her own hair and it looks good

Yea i got a pair for 50 euro in argos and i just shave my head bare once every two months. I have saved a fortune.

If you are going to buy a clippers, get a good one. Around 40 euros and upwards.
 
You seem to have missed the most important point of going to a school for primary school kids (and arguably secondary school kids too). It’s not about STEM or PE, boiling eggs, or fecking unicorn painting competitions. It’s about learning how to interact with their peers and starting to establish themselves as individuals outside the family unit. No amount of youtube tutorials will fix any of that.

Parents and schools are working together to keep education ticking over and there’s a ton of resources out there to help them already. More resources than you could possibly ever use.

None of that will stop the inevitable harm to their development of the ongoing social isolation so long as the schools stay closed. There’s no easy answer here, as nobody knows how big a factor schools play in spreading infection. Once we get an idea about that, getting kids back to school should be a priority. Everything else is a poor substitute.

Pogue, you’re wrong.

That’s a very limiting view that builds in problems from the start.

I’m not even vaguely suggesting that anything can replace 20-30 kids mingling, seeing peers succeed and fail, finding a place in life, working out what they’re good at, bad at, interested or disinterested in.

My essay worded point is : The government is failing children.

If it seeks to think ‘How do we return to normal’... they waste weeks, months.

You also ignore the fact that many parents wait for top level government advice. Many schools are setting ‘schoolwork’ that takes under an hour a day. It’s perfunctory, justify an existence rote learning useless shite.

You can’t say that school is about self-determination at the same time you’re criticising my suggestions that kids should be learning things at home that they can’t learn in school. Breed independence. Foster a desire to learn things.

The settings are INSANELY different, why is the curriculum the same?

4 weeks in, schools and kids have become pawns in the story of ‘Opening up the country’.

Design a fcuking system that would allow them to spend 6 of the next 10 months at home.
 
Why doesn’t any lad not have his own set of clippers? I got a pair at Christmas costing 20 quid and they’ve given me a decent enough number 4 all over. Unless all you lads are looking for fancy designs and shit, self cut at home. Hell my wife even learned from YouTube how to cut her own hair and it looks good

I’ll go further and ask why people are getting their haircut
 
What are the theories for the slow decline in new cases? Essential workers infecting each other? Slowly working its way through households that already have cases? People sneaking out of home to socialise?

It’s really odd that you can have such a total lockdown yet still have a relatively high number of new cases every day. Odd and concerning.

Two or three things.

- Firstly the government were furious that a newspaper broke news of the Lombardy lockdown ahead of time, so thousands of people fled to the other regions and took the virus with them. 2 days later the whole country was closed.

- It was always expected that it takes about a month for a new case to flush its way through an average household. Father has up to 14 days to show symptoms and infect grandma, who then might take another 14 days to show up before she infects son or brother who for whatever reason didn't get it from father at the beginning. It seems to be that it doesn't spread very effectively, but if you are exposed to it in the slightest it is extremely good at taking hold, if that makes sense.

- It has also been reducing more slowly in the South in areas that hadn't seen such devastating effects to begin with, and where people were not taking the rules as seriously.


Even in Wuhan where there was no question of how strong their lockdown was, it was 5 or 6 weeks before they started to see a consistent decline. Italy is just coming up to 6 weeks.
 
A simple haircut always makes me personally feel better, I’d imagine some would feel the same. Generally I let my beard go to shit though

Hair plus 6 weeks is rough. A cut feels great.

Hair plus 10 weeks is great. Already thinking ‘How long can I grow this’.

Hair at 16 weeks you’re so over the moon it’s so low maintenance.

Edit : Obviously I look like a long haired tw4t right now.
 
The UK was tracking Italy on the upslope but i think it looks to be deviating now. Italy had a 5 day period of reporting over 800 deaths each day but within a week dropped back down to 500-600 and has been slowly declining since. The UK first broke 800 deaths 12 days ago and only yesterday reported 888. The descent from the peak is taking longer.

This is also reflected in the case numbers, where there were 11 days between Italy's first and last days breaking 5,000 new cases. The UK is on 15 days and counting. That is even more worrying when you consider the UK is testing ~20,000 people per day and Italy is testing almost 70,000.
It's a bit early to say for deaths but I fear you're right, it would be logical to expect that to be the case.

I don't place as much importance on tests, we test fewer but generally with cause, which will give a higher percentage. We do have a huge unknown in the UK though, how many deaths there have been in care homes. There has also been hardly any testing there from what I can gather, whether those with symptoms or staff.
 
I’ll go further and ask why people are getting their haircut

I generally like to look good and presentable. Now i am not narcissistic. I just like to have my hair cut and be shaven.

For some jobs this is a necessity like a lawyer or accountant.