SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

redshaw said:
I severely doubt that.

We had 10s of millions going to supermarkets without masks up until July 24th. Cases fell down to 600, and that's with community testing catching the 600. We'd still be on 25k a day or many thousands with hundreds a day dead throughout the summer if people were getting it from supermarkets and bringing it home to their families. Not a chance it's from supermarkets.

Masks were brought in on 24th of July to get down the last few cases but coincidentally from that point onwards cases started to rise and rise across Europe. It's from sustained close contact in homes, mixing households, close confines at work, high schools and universities, parties etc.
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There was a study done a few months back on the subject and they couldn't find a single confirmed case of supermarket transmission.

Everybody goes to the supermarket on a regular basis, of course most people who test positive will have been there recently. It's a bit like saying 100% of people with Covid went to the toilet the day they caught it, so going to the toilet must give you Covid.
 
jojojo said:
I think test and trace only ask who you've met going back as far as two days before you got symptoms, because they're looking for who you could have given it to. So basically if you go out for the weekend and develop symptoms next Thursday, the system only wants to know about Tuesday onwards. They don't ask how you think you got it (which could be the pub, the gym, the cafe, or even the church 4 or 5 days before.

So even if people are doing it "by the book" and being completely honest, a lot of people genuinely won't have been anywhere or met anyone outside home, work, supermarket.

I think it's a major anomaly, because it means that they don't get much epidemiological information from the system. Nor can they alert people who are asymptomatic that "last Saturday in the pub you may have met a superspreader - get a test." Of course, delays in the system often mean it's pretty irrelevant anyway - one of my family has just been advised to self isolate for two days.
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Exactly. A Public Health physician in Ireland tweeted about this recently. All they can do when case numbers are high is test people who the index case has been in contact with. So if that person doesn’t infect anyone else they learn nothing about transmission. And we know that the vast majority of cases infect nobody else.

If numbers were very low they could do a proper contact tracing, to try and establish where that individual got infected. So every case gives us vital information. They were gearing up to do that over the summer only to have to park it when cases started increasing in August/September.
 
https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2020/more-covid-19-in-some-occupational-groups/

Norwegian study about risks for different occupational groups during first and second wave. Unsurprisingly, bartenders and waiters being most at risk during the second wave, doctors and nurses in the first. Obviously bartenders could get it on their free time as well and on average they are younger. So impossible to make definite conclusions, but supports what many would think intuitively.
 
massi83 said:
https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2020/more-covid-19-in-some-occupational-groups/

Norwegian study about risks for different occupational groups during first and second wave. Unsurprisingly, bartenders and waiters being most at risk during the second wave, doctors and nurses in the first. Obviously bartenders could get it on their free time as well and on average they are younger. So impossible to make definite conclusions, but supports what many would think intuitively.
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HCW data during second wave is interesting. I remember seeing similar stuff in Italy. They’re actually at lower risk than general population. Kind of makes sense in that their working day is spent in PPE but you’d think their non-work activities would have them as exposed as everyone else their age. Maybe immunity after first wave infection played a part?
 
Been reading papers on some of the predictive models that are proposed/being used for Covid patients. Some of them are worryingly lax in their methods - I'd hope not too many strong decisions are being made based off their results in practice.

Any doctors have experience using similar models in their hospitals, and any insight into how much stock is put in the results from them?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
HCW data during second wave is interesting. I remember seeing similar stuff in Italy. They’re actually at lower risk than general population. Kind of makes sense in that their working day is spent in PPE but you’d think their non-work activities would have them as exposed as everyone else their age. Maybe immunity after first wave infection played a part?
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Norway's first wave was so miniscule that I don’t think immunity plays any significant role.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
What did Cuomo do wrong? I only know him from bickering with his brother on tv and NY generally doing a decent job at crushing the first wave. Has he fecked up since then?
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I refuse to believe this guy doesn't know how terrible cuomo has been in handling the pandemic. you have gazillion posts in this thread. how is that even possible?!
 
I thought you couldn`t travel from England to Wales . Next door neighbours family just arrived for the weekend , daughter, son in law and grandson all hugging and kissing at the door . I must admit it pisses me off when my mother and father in law haven`t been out since March and these cnuts next door just turn up and will spend the weekend doing whatever they want cos they are in lockdown at home.
 
entropy said:
I refuse to believe this guy doesn't know how terrible cuomo has been in handling the pandemic. you have gazillion posts in this thread. how is that even possible?!
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Educate me then.

As far as I can see New York got hammered, early on, in the same way as London, Paris and Brussels. All major transport hubs with huge throughput of European citizens (the initial epicentre outside China). Which won’t have been helped by an idiot like Trump in charge of the country.

Since then he’s been in charge of one of the only (maybe the only?) state with a second wave smaller than the first; that does more testing than any other state in the country and one of the lowest mortality rates. Particularly impressive considering how fecked up and expensive the American healthcare system is.

Is there something I’m missing here? Or is this more of your usual knee-jerk Bernie bro nonsense?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Educate me then.

As far as I can see New York got hammered, early on, in the same way as London, Paris and Brussels. All major transport hubs with huge throughput of European citizens (the initial epicentre outside China). Which won’t have been helped by an idiot like Trump in charge of the country.

Since then he’s been in charge of one of the only (maybe the only?) state with a second wave smaller than the first; that does more testing than any other state in the country and one of the lowest mortality rates. Particularly impressive considering how fecked up and expensive the American healthcare system is.

Is there something I’m missing here? Or is this more of your usual knee-jerk Bernie bro nonsense?
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No, I won't. Multiple posters have posted in this thread and in other threads regarding this subject. None of this is groundbreaking news to any of us, except you.
 
Cuomo
berbatrick said:
it was more than that -
Delayed the lockdown, delayed coordinating supplies, with doctors and nurses going without PPE, forced nuring homes to take patients from overcorwded hospitals, and shielded them from any liability for deaths that happen (and a ton happened as covid spread throughout the homes). Coincidentally he got a donation from nursing homes.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...y-for-covid-patients-prompts-more-controversy
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/26/andrew-cuomo-nursing-home-execs-immunity
https://www.propublica.org/article/...y-10-times-the-number-of-deaths-as-california

Since April he is one of the most popular politicians in the country. Btw, when googling for these links, which I remembered reading in May, few/none of the CNN or NYT articles that showed up carried anything about it. Propublica broke the delay story and David Sirota, a blogger, broke the liability story.
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entropy said:
Yeah, dude. I was the one labeling people bernie bros and rage typing nonsense instead of doing a simple google.
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No. You’re the twat who has refused to answer a simple question. Twice. A quick google reveals my summary above is fairly accurate. If you have anything useful to add, fire away. I suspect not. You rarely do.
 
berbatrick said:
Cuomo
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Ok, thanks. I saw the stuff about PPE, delayed lockdowns and nursing home stuff. Mistakes we’ve seen in almost every region with a really brutal first wave. Caught on their heels and making bad, rushed decisions as a result. But it’s difficult to unpick cause and effect here. Were they hit bad because it was managed badly, or was it managed badly because they were hit bad? Super-spreaders and exponential grown causes fine margins between success and disaster.

With BoJo, the delayed lockdown seemed obvious because of near neighbours beating him to the punch. Was that the case in the US? Did other states lockdown before NY?

EDIT: Reading those links now. California shut down 3 days sooner. Fair play to Cali. Although they seem to be doing a lot worse than NY now?

I didn’t know about him shielding nursing homes from liability. That’s a strange thing to do. Litigation in the states is bonkers but if he’s in cahoots with them, financially, that
looks very bad.

Once they got a bit of head-space NY seem to have handled this in an exemplary way. Certainly compared to the rest of America. That’s what it looks like anyway. I could be missing something?
 
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My ward manager told me today that I'm down to getting the COVID vaccine in "two weeks" time. I'm obviously pro-vaccine, and I've never once entertained the arguments of anti-Vaccers, but I must admit I found it daunting that I'd be getting it this early :lol: Sure hope they have faith in not having any mid to long term side-effects :nervous:
 
djembatheking said:
I thought you couldn`t travel from England to Wales . Next door neighbours family just arrived for the weekend , daughter, son in law and grandson all hugging and kissing at the door . I must admit it pisses me off when my mother and father in law haven`t been out since March and these cnuts next door just turn up and will spend the weekend doing whatever they want cos they are in lockdown at home.
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I don't think I could just sit there and say nothing. I'd be fuming all weekend.
 
djembatheking said:
I thought you couldn`t travel from England to Wales . Next door neighbours family just arrived for the weekend , daughter, son in law and grandson all hugging and kissing at the door . I must admit it pisses me off when my mother and father in law haven`t been out since March and these cnuts next door just turn up and will spend the weekend doing whatever they want cos they are in lockdown at home.
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Annoying
 
Came across a pretty jarring fact on vaccine adoption today. A 70 year old black man in the US is roughly as likely to volunteer himself for the first rounds of vaccinations as a 20 year old white woman (in both cases, not that likely)...despite being roughly 50x more likely to die from covid. Not difficult to understand with Tuskegee still relatively fresh in the collective consciousness and a long history, never mind the current disparity in outcomes on non-covid stuff, but that's quite a big hurdle to overcome. In every other case, people that are more at risk from covid are less "vaccine hesitant". Men are much more likely to get it ASAP than women, old much more likely to than young. But race is a bigger determinant of vaccine hesitancy than any of those things, and it's the only one that cuts the other way - the most at risk are the least likely to take it.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
My ward manager told me today that I'm down to getting the COVID vaccine in "two weeks" time. I'm obviously pro-vaccine, and I've never once entertained the arguments of anti-Vaccers, but I must admit I found it daunting that I'd be getting it this early :lol: Sure hope they have faith in not having any mid to long term side-effects :nervous:
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I’d just think of it as preferable to be exposed to a vaccine with solid pre-clinical and early phase evidence of only very minor adverse events than a virus with a mortality rate approaching 1% and horrible systemic pathology, that has an equivalent lack of evidence on long term sequelae.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Ok, thanks. I saw the stuff about PPE, delayed lockdowns and nursing home stuff. Mistakes we’ve seen in almost every region with a really brutal first wave. Caught on their heels and making bad, rushed decisions as a result. But it’s difficult to unpick cause and effect here. Were they hit bad because it was managed badly, or was it managed badly because they were hit bad? Super-spreaders and exponential grown causes fine margins between success and disaster.

With BoJo, the delayed lockdown seemed obvious because of near neighbours beating him to the punch. Was that the case in the US? Did other states lockdown before NY?

EDIT: Reading those links now. California shut down 3 days sooner. Fair play to Cali. Although they seem to be doing a lot worse than NY now?

I didn’t know about him shielding nursing homes from liability. That’s a strange thing to do. Litigation in the states is bonkers but if he’s in cahoots with them, financially, that
looks very bad.

Once they got a bit of head-space NY seem to have handled this in an exemplary way. Certainly compared to the rest of America. That’s what it looks like anyway. I could be missing something?
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I don't think most govts have come out looking well, and Cuomo should be lumped in with those, but his contrast with Trump and constant TV presence made him look more like Jacinda Adern (or Xi Jinping!) than Boris, Newson, etc.
 
Brwned said:
Came across a pretty jarring fact on vaccine adoption today. A 70 year old black man in the US is roughly as likely to volunteer himself for the first rounds of vaccinations as a 20 year old white woman (in both cases, not that likely)...despite being roughly 50x more likely to die from covid. Not difficult to understand with Tuskegee still relatively fresh in the collective consciousness and a long history, never mind the current disparity in outcomes on non-covid stuff, but that's quite a big hurdle to overcome. In every other case, people that are more at risk from covid are less "vaccine hesitant". Men are much more likely to get it ASAP than women, old much more likely to than young. But race is a bigger determinant of vaccine hesitancy than any of those things, and it's the only one that cuts the other way - the most at risk are the least likely to take it.
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Shit. That’s bad. How reliable is the “fact”?
 
berbatrick said:
I don't think most govts have come out looking well, and Cuomo should be lumped in with those, but his contrast with Trump and constant TV presence made him look more like Jacinda Adern (or Xi Jinping!) than Boris, Newson, etc.
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You can see why the Dems want to use him as a poster boy. But I agree that the nursing home liability stuff leaves a bad taste.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Shit. That’s bad. How reliable is the “fact”?
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Fair question. I don't think there's really any facts in vaccine hesitancy - any of the evidence on it is a bit too flimsy because it's all self-reported stuff about future behaviours. This was from a survey of 10,000 people in the US that finished just yesterday so I'd think it's a pretty good approximation of reality.

This survey is a little more reliable and while we can't make that exact comparison, the broad pattern remains the same - black folks much less likely than anyone else to take the vaccine. But it's from a couple of months ago. And there's no question there's historically been significant differences in vaccination rates - even among healthcare workers. Covid is a special case so we shouldn't assume those are unmovable attitudes, but someone will need to come up with a creative solution for sure. The speed things are moving at raises even more alarm bells for them than any other group, and for mostly legitimate reasons. They've struggled to get the numbers in trials but it seems like they're just about making it so far. Something different will be needed to scale it up.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
My ward manager told me today that I'm down to getting the COVID vaccine in "two weeks" time. I'm obviously pro-vaccine, and I've never once entertained the arguments of anti-Vaccers, but I must admit I found it daunting that I'd be getting it this early :lol: Sure hope they have faith in not having any mid to long term side-effects :nervous:
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I'll take yours if you don't want it, wouldn't mind jumping the queue.
 
You can cut the sexual tension in this thread with a knife
 
berbatrick said:
I don't think most govts have come out looking well, and Cuomo should be lumped in with those, but his contrast with Trump and constant TV presence made him look more like Jacinda Adern (or Xi Jinping!) than Boris, Newson, etc.
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He also slashed the budget for public schools in the middle of a pandemic and forced them to re-open. And even with the second wave of cases, he still refuses to help people with any useful legislation like rent or mortgage moratorium. The fact that he is out there selling his book, receiving awards, and doing rounds in the media is beyond disgusting.
 
Penna said:
I don't think I could just sit there and say nothing. I'd be fuming all weekend.
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I am fuming Penna , they will be in and out all weekend Christmas shopping, eating out and enjoying their freedom while locals here are still limiting their movements and some of the older more vulnerable not going out at all. I don`t go anywhere except walks on the beach as I look after my in laws and my wife is a carer and these lot turn up from Preston doing what the feck they want as if they are above the rules .
 
djembatheking said:
I am fuming Penna , they will be in and out all weekend Christmas shopping, eating out and enjoying their freedom while locals here are still limiting their movements and some of the older more vulnerable not going out at all. I don`t go anywhere except walks on the beach as I look after my in laws and my wife is a carer and these lot turn up from Preston doing what the feck they want as if they are above the rules .
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Hate to say it but I'm in Preston and it has one of the highest infection rates in the country. I've a week booked in the Brecon Beacons in February, but I won't go unless things change dramatically.
 
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