Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Sarni said:
Yeah I was just reporting what I heard here and also giving my view that Putin will not leave the country with (from his perception) less than he entered it with (Crimea which he considered Russian and Luzhansk/Donetsk which he considered independent). It is right for Ukraine to fight for this and it is wrong for him to take it. Ukraine will have to cause Russia to retreat to take those lands back though which is very hard to imagine.

Also with the damage done already things will not be normal anyway. We are probably past the point of ‘it can be solved with negotiations’.
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I agree with you, will be hard for the Ukranian army to go on the offensive and regain land. I wish it could be the case but think it is unlikely.

This is early days and we're sort of looking for decisive victories and/or a negotiated settlement to arise quickly. But there's a chance this conflict could stretch out over months to even years at a lower intensity, which would cause even more suffering.
 
RedTiger said:
I agree with you. If Russias conditions are honestly just independence for the 2 breakaway regions, recognition of Crimea as russian and ukranian neutrality. Ukraine should take that.
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And the sanctions remain? Or does Putin get literally everything he wants by starting a war?
 
antsmithmk said:
I doubt he could even start a nuclear war considering what we have seen so far from the Russian military.
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More chance of him blowing his own cock off the way his military service has been fumbling around
 
Bepi said:
You know what, I am pretty sure the EU would gladly accept a broad split at this stage, without a bloodbath… the big and loud wake up call is a victory, already: they can regroup, get rid of Russian toxic internal pawns, and organise a stronger union. The EU advanced as a project way more in 4 days than in 20 years, and there is no way back.
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The EU would accept...
What makes you think that it is up to the EU to decide where and how Ukraine is carved up.
 
ShoePolish said:
The left guy seems oddly familiar. Think he's in one of the photos in this thread posing with Kadyrov, iirc, must be high ranking.
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Bit more on this, the claim was made by Ukraines head of security council. Also states, they were tipped off by russian FSB insiders, who don't want to partake in this war. Plot thickening or misinformation? :annoyed:
 
IWat said:
And the sanctions remain? Or does Putin get literally everything he wants by starting a war?
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Zelinsky's position is that Ukrainians won't give up an inch of Ukrainian land, which is the correct position imo.
 
This whole accepting giving parts of Ukraine to Russia business is crazy.

Imagine it in England for a second, we'll just take Lancashire and Yorkshire please and you can keep the rest. The way people just back down due to threats is mental.

I actually agree we shouldn't be sending troops, but let's leave the decision on what Ukraine should accept to Ukranians maybe?
 
Raoul said:
Yes. His tweets are grounded in far more reality than any other tweeter in this thread.
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He’s honestly had such a resurgence since this started, actually using his access and then tweeting quite factually it would seem.
 
ShinjiNinja26 said:
I thought that as well. Wasn’t he one of Kadrov’s generals who was killed when his convoy got bombed en route to a Ukrainian city?
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Just did a bit of google research, and yes, indeed that's him. He was offed couple of days ago.
 
It’s troubling, and the more I think about it, Putin is a madman who is hell bent on maintaining his power in Russia and exerting ‘ maximizing his world influence. But either it was a gross miscalculation, or he is deluded to think that he’s going to “win” anything from this move. It smacks of Hitler and his irrational confidence in invading Russia.

* The economic sanctions will cripple the Russian economy. For a country that has a huge gap in standard of living between the haves and have nots, and a very small middle class, the effects will be widespread.
* Suddenly, very powerful oligarchs will see their assets frozen, and more importantly, their ability to continue business operations, revenues and profits in the west will be severely hamstrung.
* Let’s assume Putin gains control of Kyiv and most of the country? Then what? He’s going to have to deal with massive insurgency. The economic sanctions won’t be lifted as long as he has a finger in Ukraine. Even installing a puppet regime won’t change the economic sanctions.

His only hope is that he can get a stalemate, say, for Ukraine to agree to not join NATO and in return, the sanctions are lifted, but Ukraine’s borders remain unchanged and they continue as a self determined democracy. But he sort of had that option before the war and without firing a shot.
 
Raoul said:
Zelinsky's position is that Ukrainians won't give up an inch of Ukrainian land, which is the correct position.
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Good on him. In fairness, it's an easier position to take when they're doing what is ultimately their version of winning. Hopefully, we don't have to find out if that remains if the conditions worsen on the ground.
 
RedTiger said:
I agree with you. If Russias conditions are honestly just independence for the 2 breakaway regions, recognition of Crimea as russian and ukranian neutrality. Ukraine should take that.
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That would only embolden Putin, unless perhaps all sanctions remain in place for an extended period of time.
 
Revan said:
What can China do if Putin is planning to destroy the world? The entire China/Xi will stop him is such nonsense. China can control Russian's economy now after the sanctions, but if Putin is going all nuke, what can China do. 'Hey Vladimir, we won't buy from you and Russia, neither give you loans after 6000 nukes hit Russia' does not seem a very sensible threat. In an all nuclear war, it is actually extremely likely that China will be subject to that too.

So China stopping Russia makes sense only if we are talking about a rational Russia. If Russia has gone irrational (by that I mean Putin crazy, and no willing mechanisms to remove him), then there is not much China can do.
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“Crazy” Russia will nuke us all eventually, might as well defend Ukraine then.

What aren’t you willing to concede to a crazy dictator threatening to end the world?
 
tomaldinho1 said:
He’s honestly had such a resurgence since this started, actually using his access and then tweeting quite factually it would seem.
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He also has access to information before it actually unfolds on the ground, which is quite useful.
 
nimic said:
Do we have to keep posting Marco Rubio tweets? It's not like they have any new information, it's literally just Marco Rubio's take on events.
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I find them interesting, he sits on some intel committee doesn't he?
 
P-Nut said:
This whole accepting giving parts of Ukraine to Russia business is crazy.

Imagine it in England for a second, we'll just take Lancashire and Yorkshire please and you can keep the rest. The way people just back down due to threats is mental.

I actually agree we shouldn't be sending troops, but let's leave the decision on what Ukraine should accept to Ukranians maybe?
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Of course the final decision is up to them, but I don't think it's wrong to debate what you would personally accept if you were Ukrainian.

If Zelenskyy says no land given, then no land is given and I fully support it.

That said, it's taken the Russians so fecking long to restock that I am slowly losing the will to live. Just give me that Russian passport....
 
Pexbo said:
Just making the point that if you let Russia land grab state by state, at what point do you decide it’s time to intervene?

Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine…Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, Romania?

If they do it incrementally, one per decade before letting relations settle and the world adjust to the new normal and then move onto the next you will always have people saying “it’s not worth it they have nukes”.
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So many places to denazify.
 
Buster15 said:
The EU would accept...
What makes you think that it is up to the EU to decide where and how Ukraine is carved up.
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I am not thinking anything, I am just parroting “experts” discussing this matter on TV… the level is not different from twitter experts or this same topic… only the US intelligence seems consistently getting it right, and if nobody relevant is making stupid declarations any more it is because (“experts” are saying right now…) they are all trying to broker some deal.
 
Surely if Putin is not after the whole of Ukraine, it's 'smarter' for him to do his scorched Earth approach and get peace. His budget can hardly handle rebuilding Ukraine as well.
 
Beans said:
“Crazy” Russia will nuke us all eventually, might as well defend Ukraine then.

What aren’t you willing to concede to a crazy dictator threatening to end the world?
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I don’t know what that has to do with the post. China can do nothing to stop Putin if he has gone crazy, that was my point there. They can pressure him economically if economy still matters for him though.
 
MUFC OK said:
I simply don't agree with that.
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He's not going to attack the UK and invade us. We aren't of interest to him.

He's also not going to nuke us or he'd get the same back ten fold.

So no he's not much of a threat to us specifically. He's more of a threat to Europe as a whole than just us.
 
P-Nut said:
This whole accepting giving parts of Ukraine to Russia business is crazy.

Imagine it in England for a second, we'll just take Lancashire and Yorkshire please and you can keep the rest. The way people just back down due to threats is mental.

I actually agree we shouldn't be sending troops, but let's leave the decision on what Ukraine should accept to Ukranians maybe?
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That’s not a helpful comparison. Britain is an island with, needless to say, fixed borders, and, within that, England is just about the oldest nation state in Europe. Ukraine has existed an independent entity since 1991 and only for very brief periods before then. It is a separate nation rather than an appendage to Russia or Poland but I don’t see the reason for an absolutist view of its territorial scope when the price is so high. If they emerge without Crimea and potentially without the Donbass but with a meaningful NATO security guarantee and a roadmap to EU integration (and without their country being razed while we cheer them on from armchairs in Western Europe), that is a big strategic win in the grander scheme of things.
 
Revan said:
I don’t know what that has to do with the post. China can do nothing to stop Putin if he has gone crazy, that was my point there. They can pressure him economically if economy still matters for him though.
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Russia is going to heavily rely on China for everything it’s being denied by the West. China can shut down the Russian economy at this point.

He’s burning his bridges with his biggest ally, and acting like all this only effects Western Europe. Local skirmishes are one thing, I doubt the BRICS countries want to see a wider conflict.
 
MoskvaRed said:
That’s not a helpful comparison. Britain is an island with, needless to say, fixed borders, and, within that, England is just about the oldest nation state in Europe. Ukraine has existed an independent entity since 1991 and only for very brief periods before then. It is a separate nation rather than an appendage to Russia or Poland but I don’t see the reason for an absolutist view of its territorial scope when the price is so high. If they emerge without Crimea and potentially without the Donbass but with a meaningful NATO security guarantee and a roadmap to EU integration (and without their country being razed while we cheer them on from armchairs in Western Europe), that is a big strategic win in the grander scheme of things.
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They will be losing most of their natural resources. After what the botox has done, they are not letting the Crimea and Donbass to be taken away from them.
 
spiriticon said:
Of course the final decision is up to them, but I don't think it's wrong to debate what you would personally accept if you were Ukrainian.
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There is no ceiling to Putin’s demands. And unfortunately it’s not only Putin. The regime in Moscow seems to be on the same line. The propaganda machine currently at work in Russia will make sure there is enough support to “denazify” other countries if needed.

As I said before, if we give him yet another win he (Putin or whoever replaces him) will be back in 5/10 years for more.

Pintu said:
He is invading Ukraine because he keeps winning. Because the West keeps retreating and allowing him to win his wars. The West did let Putin win in Chetchenya, they let him win in Georgia, he is winning in Syria. He was already given a first win in Ukraine when we all forget about Crimea. If we give him the Donbas, he will ask for the rest of Ukraine next, and who knows how far this goes. It is about time the EU and other NATO countries say no.
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Beans said:
Russia is going to heavily rely on China for everything it’s being denied by the West. China can shut down the Russian economy at this point.

He’s burning his bridges with his biggest ally, and acting like all this only effects Western Europe. Local skirmishes are one thing, I doubt the BRICS countries want to see a wider conflict.
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As I said yes, if those things matter.

If he has lost it, then China cannot help. Only his cronies can.
 
Frosty said:
A Versailles arrangement would not be the end of the world.

What was imposed on Germany in 1918 was less than what Germany imposed on France in 1871. And Weimar was a flourishing state until the 1930s.
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The problem is though that Russia bears a lot of resentment to the West following the collapse of the USSR and so yet another defeat and a collapsed economy would add yet more fuel to the fire.
 
He should challenge them to a game of hockey to settle matters. He's really good:

 
He set his final cog into motion after talking to chinese president at the olympics. He must've been well reassured to start this, so if anyone can stab him in the back right now, it's them.
 
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