Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Extremely optimistic opinion, but let us dream for a minute.

The incompetance, defeats and lack of progress could be signs of deeper rooted problems within the Russian military that we aren't aware of just yet... maybe.


It is nice to read such a positive thread, but it suggests that they have almost eliminated the ground forces which is not the case even though they have suffered many casualties.
I think it is also not clear what % of their air force they have used.
The hypotheses about independence movements in all those territories also seem a bit utopian.
 
Anyone that is a Qanon type. Or anywhere Russia was working the disinformation behind the scenes (anti vax or alt right, etc). Qanoners believe Russia is working with Trump to destroy chemical or bio-labs created by Fauci. Cause that makes sense.
Labs are in Ukraine. Makes total sense.
 
Anyone that is a Qanon type. Or anywhere Russia was working the disinformation behind the scenes (anti vax or alt right, etc). Qanoners believe Russia is working with Trump to destroy chemical or bio-labs created by Fauci. Cause that makes sense.


The best one I read was that The USA was planning on nuking parts of the world as the man made virus didn’t kill enough :lol:
 
That's a myth about WW2. The Soviets were in shambles for the first few months of Barbarossa (when they generally didn't have the numerical advantage, by the way), for many reasons, but the Red Army would become a highly competent force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_operation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception
I believe they still had more casualties than the enemy in every battle almost till the end. Not necessary due to competence, but also leadership.
 
It is nice to read such a positive thread, but it suggests that they have almost eliminated the ground forces which is not the case even though they have suffered many casualties.
I think it is also not clear what % of their air force they have used.
The hypotheses about independence movements in all those territories also seem a bit utopian.

Good article on the russian air force
 
I believe they still had more casualties than the enemy in every battle almost till the end. Not necessary due to competence, but also leadership.

There are a whole lot of reasons for that too, but the point is that there's nothing particularly Soviet or Russian about military incompetence in WW2, once you get past the "whoops all our experienced officers were purged by Stalin and now the Germans are attacking" phase of it. That doesn't mean they're competent today, of course. A lot can change in a week or two, but right now it sure seems like they're not up to the task.
 
There are a whole lot of reasons for that too, but the point is that there's nothing particularly Soviet or Russian about military incompetence in WW2, once you get past the "whoops all our experienced officers were purged by Stalin and now the Germans are attacking" phase of it. That doesn't mean they're competent today, of course. A lot can change in a week or two, but right now it sure seems like they're not up to the task.

I was going to write an articulate summary of my opinion but decided to go with the statement that the modern Russian army are flat track bullies who don't like it up 'em.
 
I was going to write an articulate summary of my opinion but decided to go with the statement that the modern Russian army are flat track bullies who don't like it up 'em.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's also just corrupt to the core. No military can be professional and disciplined in such a corrupt environment.

In a morbid way I'm glad that those supposed Wagner mercs encountered the US military in Syria. They got obliterated.
 


Has this been posted? It’s pretty mental.

Attacking clearly marked and identified press is outrageous. It’s the sort of thing that could escalate this. A country whose press have been attacked would be well within their rights to retaliate.
 
What percentage of the Russian army are conscripts as distinct from volunteer professionals?
 
Interesting article. The lack of air-force is just one of a few things that is difficult to explain with the information we have. This leaves me open to the idea their are serious issues within their ranks we don't know about.

Probably wishful thinking on my part.
Or they need to do CAS and on every other rooftop there is s guy with a stinger?
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.
I get your point, but have you seen similar demonstrations by other countries right wing groups? In those numbers?
 
Damn some right wing groups/organizations gathered in Serbia and suddenly those numbers represent whole country. Guess only in Serbia right wing fecks are pricks.

Found some reactions to it a bit amusing, some are really scary.

It's not just the right wing groups though. The Serbian president is very sympathetic to Russia and refuses to implement sanctions.
 
It is nice to read such a positive thread, but it suggests that they have almost eliminated the ground forces which is not the case even though they have suffered many casualties.
I think it is also not clear what % of their air force they have used.
The hypotheses about independence movements in all those territories also seem a bit utopian.

They haven't eliminated, but tied up a significant number. Ofcourse on the south some parts of the Russian army are still moving and advancing. But I'm a firm believer the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia, if Ukraine can hold on to their east. If Mariopol and Kharkiv can stay for a month or two (it might happen Mariopol falls in a few days, but siege of Sarajevo was, what for years) in Ukranian hands, I can see Ukranians launching a counter offensive, particularly if they are still backed by the west. It might be optimistic, but at the end of it all, I won't be surprised if Ukranians retake Crimea (although that would be very hard).

Russian military is in disarray, poor communication, poor logistic and no supply. The only thing working properly for them is now artillery and air superiority (but they are not demonstrating the latter). I might be wrong, but I don't think artillery alone wins you a war. You need infantry. And the more time passes Ukraine will have advantage in manpower. Volunteers from abroad are coming plus their own mobilization efforts. To have any chance, I believe Russians need to speed up on eastern and southeastern front and cut off the forces from there with the western Ukraine. But they have to be quick, because with every day Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker. Although in Kharkiv and Mariopol Russian positions are getting better with every day. So it's kinda race against the time for both forces. Ukraine needs to buy time, for their mobilization efforts and arming from west to kick in.

Also a good point is that if Russia overcommits in Ukraine, all the *stan regions might get ideas about independence and there might be a full scale revolt. Don't know how that is realistic.

Of course, all of this is my opinion and I might be completely wrong. In that case please correct me, but I do base it a lot on Yugoslavia war in the 90s which was similarly asymmetric and quite similar in propaganda I believe. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised by similar results.
 
Apologies. I'll explain.

Weapons amu factory goes off. Raul states a thermo bomb had gone off. But posts video that had been recorded several days previously. Look at the panic. In those posts afterwards..

sounds like a genuine mistake and not something to get all worked up about
 
thanks, nice article.
His theory seems quite reasonable. Something like planes that have been for decoration and as he says, seeing how the situation was, they could have used them before.
In fact, on the first day of the war, a video appeared of a plane, alone and flying very low as he also said (a video in which a girl is heard crying)
 
Attacking clearly marked and identified press is outrageous. It’s the sort of thing that could escalate this. A country whose press have been attacked would be well within their rights to retaliate.

They probably have no idea they're press considering they're shouting in English to Russians, but they clearly aren't army. Modern body armour is amazing.
 
Attacking clearly marked and identified press is outrageous. It’s the sort of thing that could escalate this. A country whose press have been attacked would be well within their rights to retaliate.

Pity the weather man no longer has those little sun and rain magnets for the map, could use them as ninja stars on those scummy russians