Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stefan92 said:
The fact that they now exactly the route it took and how long it spent in which airspace shows that it was noticed. Probably it was identified as a reconaissance craft and therefore no action was taken.
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No, all of those are just guesses, including the trajectory and what it actually is. Croatian president was furious, they are just guessing that based on the producer of the thing

Even if you are correct(which you are not), you do realise it crashed into a Croatian capital without any reason, few tens of meteres left or right and it could have hit a residential building or something like that and innocent people could have been hurt?
 
nickm said:
Nobody is "hiding" behind article 5. As Biden said, direct NATO involvement is WW3. There is a deliberate effort being made on our side to avoid escalation or the appearance of escalation, partly because of the whole WW3 thing, and partly because Putin likes escalation games and we just don't want to give him what he wants.
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I get your argument and I’ll accept I misjudged the use of the term hiding.

My side of seeing things though is that WW3 has already begun. Barring a domestic toppling of Putin I just can’t see any way of this being resolved without (a) Ukraine being absolutely decimated and/or (b) NATO forces being drawn into it and escalating into a full World War.

I believe it’s an inevitability (I hope to Christ I’m proven wrong) but part of me, as harsh as this might be, wants to move on with it and stop delaying the inevitable at the cost of more civilians lives.
 
Amar__ said:
No, all of those are just guesses, including the trajectory and what it actually is. Croatian president was furious, they are just guessing that based on the producer of the thing

Even if you are correct(which you are not), you do realise it crashed into a Croatian capital without any reason, few tens of meteres left or right and it could have hit a residential building or something like that and innocent people could have been hurt?
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According to this (and the sources cited) it was well monitored during it's flight: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zagreb_2022_Tu-141_Crash

And the reason could simply be that it run out of fuel (which would be no surprise if the theory is right that it was intented to fly to Yarun, Ukraine, not Jarun, Croatia). If it started somewhere near the Ukraine/Russian border it would fit very well the known operating range to drop down in that area.
 
nickm said:
What would you want to happen and would you be prepared to die for that in a potential nuclear exchange? It's not an abstract question either.
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I don’t know the answer, but surely we, as an international community, could never sit back and watch a country deploy either a nuclear terror attack or deploy a nuclear weapon in another sovereign country?
 
Amar__ said:
This is not a drone, it's actually as almost as big as a plane. Weights 6000 kilograms!

And it travelled all the way throogh Hungary for around 40 minutes, to Croatia, and no one even noticed it until students from nearby buildings reported it to the police. NATO, eh? :lol:

The fact that this is not even a big news is even more disturbing.
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They probably lost radio contact. Drones probably have been programmed to fly on their own for a while if they lose contact with their human controller, so the drone kept flying in the same direction it happened to be at the moment its communication electronics failed.

This is not big mystery, I don't know why people keep repeating the "news" about this.
 
GlastonSpur said:
I don't understand the Russian tactics. Driving down a road, with no infantry screen either side, is just asking to to be ambushed and hit by anti-armour weapons.
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Given how badly trained and informed they are they probably don't know Ukraine has weapons that can penetrate their tanks. They're expecting old RPG7s.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-planning-chernobyl-attack-ukraine/

Erm, what in the name of holy feck is this?!?!?!

This was something I discussed with friends. Biden and everyone is so adamant that they won't interfere while the war is 'limited' to Ukraine - what happens if they do something at Chernobyl or another plant? What happens is (worst case hypothetical scenario) he was to drop a nuke in Ukraine? Surely they couldn't still sit by and let it continue?
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That would be an incredibly stupid move. Even if we consider that a dangerous leek could occur (apparently most experts aren't too concerned), if the wind was to blow in the wrong direction it would go straight over Russia. Tchernobyl is almost as close to Moscow than it is to Warsaw.
 
11101 said:
Given how badly trained and informed they are they probably don't know Ukraine has weapons that can penetrate their tanks. They're expecting old RPG7s.
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An old RPG-7 can easily penetrate the side of a T-72. It might have trouble at the front, but an ambush like that above can effectively use RPG-7
 
11101 said:
Given how badly trained and informed they are they probably don't know Ukraine has weapons that can penetrate their tanks. They're expecting old RPG7s.
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Nah, some of them have the makeshift bird cages welded to their turrets to try to block Javelins, which attack from above. Doesn't seem super effective.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
My side of seeing things though is that WW3 has already begun. Barring a domestic toppling of Putin I just can’t see any way of this being resolved without (a) Ukraine being absolutely decimated and/or (b) NATO forces being drawn into it and escalating into a full World War.

I believe it’s an inevitability (I hope to Christ I’m proven wrong) but part of me, as harsh as this might be, wants to move on with it and stop delaying the inevitable at the cost of more civilians lives.
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Because World War III would not cost any more civilians lives?
 


I was thinking about this last night. The Russians have junk night vision gear so the US/NATO should be sending tons of the night vision goggles we have.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
I get your argument and I’ll accept I misjudged the use of the term hiding.

My side of seeing things though is that WW3 has already begun. Barring a domestic toppling of Putin I just can’t see any way of this being resolved without (a) Ukraine being absolutely decimated and/or (b) NATO forces being drawn into it and escalating into a full World War.

I believe it’s an inevitability (I hope to Christ I’m proven wrong) but part of me, as harsh as this might be, wants to move on with it and stop delaying the inevitable at the cost of more civilians lives.
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A domestic toppling of Putin is growing more likely by the day. The country can't survive for long with a completely decimated economy, empty shelves, limited to no access to the outside world, etc.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
I'm not saying it wouldn't, but the delaying of (what I believe to be) an inevitable World War only pushes the casualties even higher.
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But what you or I believe is a certainty is just gut feeling or guess work, whereas a new World War would be exactly that. The number of deaths in Ukraine wouldn't compare to the millions lost in another world war.

I get it, though, it's the feeling that we're not doing something that's gut wrenching. But we are. People look at sanctions and think they're a little soft but it's bringing Russia's economy to the brink of collapse. It doesn't bring the dead back to life, but nothing will.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
I'm not saying it wouldn't, but the delaying of (what I believe to be) an inevitable World War only pushes the casualties even higher.
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WW3 is a nuclear war, it's not inevitable (and I say this as someone who lived thru the Cold War) and the casualties there could be in the high hundreds of millions.
 
Oly Francis said:
You don't make sense, get a grip man.
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My argument is that if World War causes X number of civilian deaths, and the delaying of World War which (again, only personal opinion) is inevitable as I don’t see any diplomatic solution to stop this from escalating, causes Y number of deaths.

I’d rather only lose X number of civilians rather than X + Y.
 
Mockney said:
Well I’m glad your desire for a hastened full blooded global nuclear conflict is for altruistic reasons
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Where have I EVER said I wanted it? I’ve only ever said I see it as an inevitability, one that breaks my ticking heart!
 
Mr Pigeon said:
But what you or I believe is a certainty is just gut feeling or guess work, whereas a new World War would be exactly that. The number of deaths in Ukraine wouldn't compare to the millions lost in another world war.

I get it, though, it's the feeling that we're not doing something that's gut wrenching. But we are. People look at sanctions and think they're a little soft but it's bringing Russia's economy to the brink of collapse. It doesn't bring the dead back to life, but nothing will.
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Millions is a massive understatement. Even if it doesn't turn nuclear, we're looking at tens of millions at least. If it goes nuclear, we're looking at billions, and the very likely end of modern human civilization.
 
Thinking about the drone, now it actually makes sense it went as far as Croatia. If it lost communication and went into autopilot, it makes sense it was flying west trying to re-establish communication. The furthest west it flew, the highest the possibility it will not fall into Russian hands, which is a priority for this war I guess.

I have no idea what actually happened. My guess is it has something to do with the programming of the drone autopilot. These are not problems that a military aircraft can have, they are problems unique to unmanned aircraft.
 
nickm said:
WW3 is a nuclear war, it's not inevitable (and I say this as someone who lived thru the Cold War) and the casualties there could be in the high hundreds of millions.
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How does this then get resolved? Without a domestic tooling of Putin what other direction does this go in?
 
Jericholyte2 said:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-planning-chernobyl-attack-ukraine/

Erm, what in the name of holy feck is this?!?!?!

This was something I discussed with friends. Biden and everyone is so adamant that they won't interfere while the war is 'limited' to Ukraine - what happens if they do something at Chernobyl or another plant? What happens is (worst case hypothetical scenario) he was to drop a nuke in Ukraine? Surely they couldn't still sit by and let it continue?
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Every expert I've read doesn't seem concerned by Chernobyl including that article:

"But, the International Atomic Energy Agency said a loss of power at Chernobyl "does not have any critical impact" on wider safety. They state there is "sufficient" cooling water for any excess nuclear fuel."

I'm going to go with the experts, but if they did go for another plant that's obviously where the West would get involved. I suspect if they do something, it'll be at Chernobyl because they can do it without a meltdown but still get the West worried.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
I get your argument and I’ll accept I misjudged the use of the term hiding.

My side of seeing things though is that WW3 has already begun. Barring a domestic toppling of Putin I just can’t see any way of this being resolved without (a) Ukraine being absolutely decimated and/or (b) NATO forces being drawn into it and escalating into a full World War.

I believe it’s an inevitability (I hope to Christ I’m proven wrong) but part of me, as harsh as this might be, wants to move on with it and stop delaying the inevitable at the cost of more civilians lives.
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I think there are other scenarios short of your A and B. C - stalemate lasting years like Afghanistan, D - tired Russian troops (not commanders) capitulate E - russian forces grind to a halt due to lack of supply
 
nimic said:
Millions is a massive understatement. Even if it doesn't turn nuclear, we're looking at tens of millions at least. If it goes nuclear, we're looking at billions, and the very likely end of modern human civilization.
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There’s no ‘if’ about nukes being used if WW3 breaks out. We aren’t rational enough as a species to refrain from using the deadliest weapon available in an all out existential conflict, despite the near certainty that it would mean our own annihilation.

After the fall of the USSR, there should have been a real effort in nuclear disarmament. The fact that 30 years after and we still have enough nukes to blow up the world many times over is mind boggling.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
My argument is that if World War causes X number of civilian deaths, and the delaying of World War which (again, only personal opinion) is inevitable as I don’t see any diplomatic solution to stop this from escalating, causes Y number of deaths.

I’d rather only lose X number of civilians rather than X + Y.
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In contrast to others, I get your hypothetical point but I think it's completely off.

If WW3 were to break out, it would make the casualties from this invasion look like a mild flu season. Europe would be done, Ukraine would be done, Russia would be done and global food supply would be in tatters.

It's essentially the end of our civilisation.
 
nickm said:
WW3 is a nuclear war, it's not inevitable (and I say this as someone who lived thru the Cold War) and the casualties there could be in the high hundreds of millions.
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It's far worse than that - a full-scale nuclear exchange would permanently extinguish all sentient life on earth.

Short of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the West should absolutely not take any risk of direct combat with the Russian military.
 
Balljy said:
Every expert I've read doesn't seem concerned by Chernobyl including that article:

"But, the International Atomic Energy Agency said a loss of power at Chernobyl "does not have any critical impact" on wider safety. They state there is "sufficient" cooling water for any excess nuclear fuel."

I'm going to go with the experts, but if they did go for another plant that's obviously where the West would get involved. I suspect if they do something, it'll be at Chernobyl because they can do it without a meltdown but still get the West worried.
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We also need to remember that there's now super powerful satellite watching every inch of ukrainian ground in areas of interest. Any weird move involving many individuals is watchable from space and would be recorded. While satellite can't know where missiles are fired and where they land, the can see what's going on on the ground. It's very likely that the most advanced spy satellites have a 1cm resolution that allows you to photograph pretty much anything going on outside.
 
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Jericholyte2 said:
I'm not saying it wouldn't, but the delaying of (what I believe to be) an inevitable World War only pushes the casualties even higher.
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I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
 
GlastonSpur said:
It's far worse than that - a full-scale nuclear exchange would permanently extinguish all sentient life on earth.

Short of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the West should absolutely not take any risk of direct combat with the Russian military.
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It would but I was being optimistic (!) and going for a limited exchange.
 
Fredo said:
I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
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I do suspect a lot of what is happening on the Russian side at the moment is about bolstering a negotiating position.
 
Fredo said:
I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
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But, likewise, Putin wouldn't take any deal that doesn't include Russia taking huge areas of Ukraine in addition to the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, which but Ukraine and the 'West' wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't accept. I just don't see how diplomacy wins when Putin is at the proverbial table.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
But, likewise, Putin wouldn't take any deal that doesn't include Russia taking huge areas of Ukraine in addition to the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, which but Ukraine and the 'West' wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't accept. I just don't see how diplomacy wins when Putin is at the proverbial table.
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The ultimate solution is for european countries that are currently part of NATO to completely draw out from NATO and form their own, being puppets in the hands of the americans/british is clearly showing, if the US doesnt give the green light to engage the russian army in military combat, the current situation will not change.
 
nickm said:
I do suspect a lot of what is happening on the Russian side at the moment is about bolstering a negotiating position.
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What annoys me the most to be honest is they all sit and smile during the negotiations as you can see on the cameras then go back to their corners and start killing each other again
 
Fredo said:
The ultimate solution is for european countries that are currently part of NATO to completely draw out from NATO and form their own, being puppets in the hands of the americans/british is clearly showing, if the US doesnt give the green light to engage the russian army in military combat, the current situation will not change.
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Great solution. Should they invite Putin for tea as well?
 
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