Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

sun_tzu said:
I believe they re still shelling Kyiv so unless they are going to stop completely or unless they are sure where they are and are confident in their accuracy then anything is possible (especially with a bunch of conscripts and the "fog of war")

I suspect they didn't intentionally down MH17... but things happen quickly and things go wrong
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This might be wrong, but from the news and videos that go out it always seems to me like the main shelling takes place in the early morning hours? Obviously fighting also occurs during the day, but I get the impression from those videos showing artillery after artillery bombing the cities seem to happen at night. Is that true, and if yes is that "normal" for invasions?

Besides has the centre of Kyiv been targeted yet?

Anyway I find the image of a train with European prime ministers just casually passing through a war zone uncontested somewhat comical for lack of a better word. I'm sure Russian soldiers won't touch it, but it must be a surreal experience being on that train and seeing the (presumably) largely peaceful countryside pass by until reaching the less peaceful areas closer to Kyiv.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What are the arguments against joining NATO presented by the left of centre?
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The illusion of having a somewhat independent foreign policy. Member states seen as problematic including Turkey, Hungary and most notably the US. Purely idealistic reasons I would say. Also an unwarranted sense of moral superiority. Obviously doesn't mean people support Putin.
 
Needham said:
And still, the US basically fled from both. Russia sees this stuff and acknowledges to itself the human sacrifices it's willing to make while seeing the US/West unwilling to make those same sacrifices. It is part of the calculus that led Putin to think the rationale for war during this American administration was a sound one.
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Yeah, no.

The Soviets lost 15,000 troops in Afghanistan over 10 years, and that took down the Soviet Union. These casualties are on that order after only a few weeks. Putin won't be dismissive about these numbers, if he's got any sense.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I think we are beyond the point where there will be any normalisation of relations with Putin. At some point, of course, Europe and, in particular, Russia have to move back to a more constructive relationship (you can’t change your geographical location) but that won’t happen until there’s a new face in the Kremlin.
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There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
 
Smores said:
There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
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I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
 
sun_tzu said:
I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
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That seems to be the tactic, wage terror on Ukraine, and hope they will accept a somewhat face-saving peace treaty to stop it.
 
So with the ships off the coast homing in on Odessa it looks like the Russians are preparing to ramp up, not down
 
sun_tzu said:
I cant see him stopping shelling civilians till there is an agreement to roll back a chunk of the sanctions (freeing up foreign currency reserves for a start)
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Yeah you'd imagine that would be pushed in any peace deal with Ukraine.

Ukraine will need to be seen as accepting sanction removal/reduction as otherwise the Dems won't have political cover to do so.
 
Smores said:
Yeah you'd imagine that would be pushed in any peace deal with Ukraine.

Ukraine will need to be seen as accepting sanction removal/reduction as otherwise the Dems won't have political cover to do so.
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yes though even if Ukrine ok's it there probbly is no limit to how many Ukranians some of the republican hawks would gladly see murdered if it means they can have high gas prices for the mid terms so Dems will perhaps get some cover but lot of incoming flack as well
 
Smores said:
There's a limit to how long they can go on without having the opposite impact and i think that's measured in months not years.

If Putin isn't toppled in the next few months i can't imagine the sanctions will have any beneficial impact beyond creating a hostile Russia that will outlast him.
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We’ve had an ostensibly hostile Russia since at least 2007 (Putin’s speech in Munich), it’s just we pretended that we could still do business. If Russia remains hostile, then so be it - this is ultimately about restoring balance in Europe around a revanchist state with destructive nationalistic tendencies and an over-inflated sense of its current economic and military power.
 
Red Dreams said:
You are glossing over the fact Graham and McCain were there in 2014 promising help and the US helped install an anti Russian government that ended up with 14,000 getting killed.
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Where have you come from and what shit do you keep peddling in the last 24 hours?
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
I'll send her $20 CAD, should just about cover it.
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$350 according to Google.

She was smart making a video, it gave her a profile and that’s what’s protecting her. They can’t make her a martyr and have too many people start asking questions.
 
golden_blunder said:
So with the ships off the coast homing in on Odessa it looks like the Russians are preparing to ramp up, not down
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Difficult to say knowing Ukrainian lives will be lost, but I kinda hope Russia does attempt to land there. I expect nothing but a humiliating defeat for them.
 
TMDaines said:
A lot of Ukrainian people I follow on Twitter were convinced last night that the whole thing was a ruse by Russia. I thought they were being very paranoid, but this is odd.
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They could be onto something. Zelenskyy is now talking openly that Ukraine are not really welcome in NATO. I will not be surprised if some sort of agreement is reached soon. However, I do hope that sanctions remain in force for as long as Putin and his cronies are in charge.
 
sun_tzu said:
Thank makes some sense when you think back to the falklands

and I found reference to the actual definition which is



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so North Africa possibly is covered?
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I originally read the actual article as the "Tropic of Cancer" limitation only counting for the last part of it, which is "islands in the North Atlantic", but according to Wikipedia the US and NATO said that an attack on Hawaii probably wouldn't trigger the article. That's kinda crazy.
 
nimic said:
I originally read the actual article as the "Tropic of Cancer" limitation only counting for the last part of it, which is "islands in the North Atlantic", but according to Wikipedia the US and NATO said that an attack on Hawaii probably wouldn't trigger the article. That's kinda crazy.
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I would guess by the same rational China sinking a boat around Senkaku Islands / Diaoyudao Islands / Diaoyutai Islands would equally not be a NATO issue as well ... A diplomatic issue sure but probably not one that obliged NATO members to act in a certain way
 
MoskvaRed said:
We’ve had an ostensibly hostile Russia since at least 2007 (Putin’s speech in Munich), it’s just we pretended that we could still do business. If Russia remains hostile, then so be it - this is ultimately about restoring balance in Europe around a revanchist state with destructive nationalistic tendencies and an over-inflated sense of its current economic and military power.
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No we've had a hostile Putin that is not the same thing, it's a very important distinction.
The goal of everyone should be an integrated Russia and instilling a desire in its citizens for a global community. Hopefully that comes quickly with Putin toppled but if it may not.
 
iKnowNothing said:
Assume that one has a residential building/apartment complex which was destroyed by Russian tank/bomb/whatever. How does someone go about rebuilding it, once this is all over? Who pays for that stuff?
I’m assuming insurance won’t pay for property destroyed by war..?
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Depends. My parent's house was semi-destroyed during the Lebanese Civil War (75-90), no one helped rebuild shit.
 
Suedesi said:
Such as... Jen?
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More sanctions!

Makes me laugh, I watched the Russian YouTube channel someone linked a couple of days ago on here, when asked if the sanctions are affecting them 95% of random people on the street said no.

Russia basically has carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Ukraine, short of using nukes, given than no one will intervene militarily.
 
marktan said:
More sanctions!

Makes me laugh, I watched the Russian YouTube channel someone linked a couple of days ago on here, when asked if the sanctions are affecting them 95% of random people on the street said no.

Russia basically has carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Ukraine, short of using nukes, given than no one will intervene militarily.
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In reality, sanctions are hurting them bad already.
 
marktan said:
More sanctions!

Makes me laugh, I watched the Russian YouTube channel someone linked a couple of days ago on here, when asked if the sanctions are affecting them 95% of random people on the street said no.

Russia basically has carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Ukraine, short of using nukes, given than no one will intervene militarily.
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You could ask most Britons whether Brexit is hurting them and the results would be just as meaningless in the short term.
 
marktan said:
More sanctions!

Makes me laugh, I watched the Russian YouTube channel someone linked a couple of days ago on here, when asked if the sanctions are affecting them 95% of random people on the street said no.

Russia basically has carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Ukraine, short of using nukes, given than no one will intervene militarily.
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Another with a boner for World War 3 and no idea of reality.

Sanctions take time to come into effect, there are already videos of people kicking off in supermarkets cause stuff isn’t available for instance. Just has to take time to build up cumulatively. Imagine what it’ll be like when there’s no food whatsoever and nothing but propaganda on the TV whilst families all over Russia are questioning why their young son/brother/father/cousin has gone missing or returns back in a box.
 
Smores said:
No we've had a hostile Putin that is not the same thing, it's a very important distinction.
The goal of everyone should be an integrated Russia and instilling a desire in its citizens for a global community. Hopefully that comes quickly with Putin toppled but if it may not.
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I hope you are right but I fear Putin is more than just a bogeyman holding in check his citizens.
 
Smores said:
No we've had a hostile Putin that is not the same thing, it's a very important distinction.
The goal of everyone should be an integrated Russia and instilling a desire in its citizens for a global community. Hopefully that comes quickly with Putin toppled but if it may not.
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These aren't necessarily desirable outcomes for a number of Russians though. Significant parts of Russian society, especially in the east, are strongly nationalist, distrustful of the western world and broadly supportive of an isolationist and a strongly anti western government.

Putin is a product of this, not the cause.

Never underestimate his popularity.
 
marktan said:
More sanctions!

Makes me laugh, I watched the Russian YouTube channel someone linked a couple of days ago on here, when asked if the sanctions are affecting them 95% of random people on the street said no.

Russia basically has carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Ukraine, short of using nukes, given than no one will intervene militarily.
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:lol:
 
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