My limited understanding of this war is that it doesn't matter what you hit (long/short) if then you can't keep it on the ground. So the stalemate is a given as no troop will be able to advance sufficiently to strategically hold any terrain
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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My limited understanding of this war is that it doesn't matter what you hit (long/short) if then you can't keep it on the ground. So the stalemate is a given as no troop will be able to advance sufficiently to strategically hold any terrain
The world's second best army keeps on giving.
Long range weapons help with taking out command centers, or Sevastopol shipyard, etc.. They won't launch storm shadow, atacms, taurus, scalp or you name it at a trench, and that's what ultimately is what's holding counteroffensive back.
That's why these toblerone lines for russians have sort of been working, they slow down vehicles, to a point where they can be picked off by artillery or ATGM, then infantry needs to either retreat or carry on without armored support. And attritional infantry v infantry battle will work in russian favour.
If russia get let's say from november to june again to reinforce, there's going to be a lot more toblerones, a lot more trenches, a lot more minefields.
Toblerones sounds more delicious than dragonteeth
Laura Loomer 
BonerFace
"Now Bellingcat shows how court filings prove Boneface was making up those claims promoted by Loomer."
Something I never thought I'd read in this thread. Or any other thread. Ever.
Something I never thought I'd read in this thread. Or any other thread. Ever.
I wish someone had the balls to tell him to shut up
I'd simply make a policy of increasing Ukrainian support for every new threat in Russian state television. 10 Storm Shadows for the threat of blowing up British facilities.
Big Russian losses yesterday again. Apart from the landing ship and submarine (new category
) , they've also lost 42 artillery systems, 15 tanks, 18 APVs.
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Loads of companies and billionaires going around sanctions, but yeah, lets focus on random nobodies.
I get this weird vibe from twitter that if ukraine began bombing russian civilians half the people there would cheer and justify it somehow.
The way Ukraine are going after Russia's S-300/400 systems, makes you think they have some plans for their air-force.
Yes, they are increasingly enabling themselves to strike more often on Crimea. I would not be surprised if that wasn't the last attack we have seen on Sevastopol as winter is coming near and with it Russias terror attempts on the civilian energy/heating infrastructure. Taking out missile launch platforms is very valuable to prevent/reduce this.
Have you only just stumbled across Twitter? Why do you seem surprised to discover it’s full of terrible people with terrible opinions?
Because I rarely venture into the comments, but even knowing it's bad, it manages to surprise me every time because it's always worse than what you expect. Sadly I have to use it for work reasons.
They think they'll have the first F16s ready soon. Need the air defences cleared if they hope to use them.
Twitter comments are the seventh circle of hell. I deleted my Twitter account ages ago, so was only ever exposed to comments via Redcafe. I guess I have Musk to thank for improving my mental health by messing Twitter functionality up so badly that it's no longer possible to see comments from Tweets embedded on this website.
That's not a big factor now I think. They are able to do deep strikes using drones, cruise missiles (both air and land launched - Storm Shadow, Scalp, Neptune) already, they don't need the F-16 for this capability. But obviously to increase the success of any long range attack it makes a lot of sense to start with the enemies air defense.
The biggest new capability of the F-16 will be long-range air-to-air combat, which Ukraine can't perform right now due to a lack of fitting long-range AA-missiles for their current planes (only Russia has those which gives them an advantage in air-to-air combat).
The S-300/400 platforms don't appear to be any use in defending against Ukraines cruise missile capability, but they still are apparently prime target. So it feels like Ukraine does want to utilise their air force closer to Russian held territory. That could be with the F-16's in mind, or it could just be for the new drones they are producing. There appears to be a couple types we dont' know a lot about yet, plus the bayraktar's.
Yes. Without radar jamming aircraft alongside the NATO fighters, they'll absolutely need to be reducing the anti-air threat.
Are we sure about this? I have seen Russian claims, that the attack on Sevastopol was carried out by 10 Storm Shadows, 7 of them were intercepted. That does indeed sound reasonable for me and would show two things: Ukraine can launch an attack using five aircrafts together (as their Sukhois can only launch two Storm Shadows each) and that Russian air defence still is a factor. Just imagine the havoc in Sevastopol if all 10 had hit it.
For me that's a lot more believable than that Russia can't do anything about attacks on their currently most important military base
I just read some rumours, that two patrol ships were destroyed by Ukrainian marine drones today. Russia only has four ships of this class, if true it would be another blow to Russia's ability to control the Black Sea and to launch cruise missiles from there. But no reliable source yet for this.
Unfortunately, we can't take any Russian claims seriously, of course there will sometimes be truth and whilst that that claim may be plausible, they lie so much its just pointless listening to them at all. I think so far we've only seen evidence of one storm shadow being shot down and even then that's a maybe. I saw another Russian claim that S-200 were used to saturate defences, could be those were shot down if any, but we just don't know.
The attack this morning north of Sevastopol on the S-400 site according to Ukraine was done using Neptune's after drones had taken out the radar.
This should be the most heavily defended area of Crimea, so it does appear to me Russia is pretty impotent against these attacks. There was a comment on reddit suggesting the taking of those gas rigs the other day was a prelude to these attacks, taking out those radar towers may have made Crimean bases a lot more vunerable.
I think it's less to do with the air force to come and more to do with Storm Shadows as they are fired from aircraft. The more you want to hit deep with Storm Shadow the more you want AA down so the planes get closer.
F 16s will change things with long distance AA missiles and maybe American cruise missiles (none of them are confirmed). IMO F 16 will serve to deny the orcs air force.
Exactly. 70% shot down is roughly the percentage of the western anti-air systems. It's far more likely they want to show their anti-air systems are no worse than the western ones, which I seriously doubt. It wouldn't surprise me, if Kremlin and Putin also get those fake numbers, so that those responsible won't be punished. Who can really confirm except Ukrainian command whether 5 or 10 missiles arrived?
A little spit and rubbing and it's as good as new.
Yep, a bit of elbow grease & all will be well.
This doesn't work as an argument because there are claims for example that IRIS-T SLM has a "near 100% success rate" defending Kyiv. So 70% would be much worse.