A people's Revolution

Finally it seems like the divide and conquer strategy so successfully deployed by 'the west' is slowly unravelling as the peoples of the Middle East take back control of what is rightly theirs.

Anyone with a crystal ball want to forecast what the maps of this region might look like in 24 months time? Raoul? My sources tell me any number of permeations look possible. None look good for what is today called 'Israel'.

Wonder if the 'twitches' in Israel have reached Jack Bauer proportions yet?

You envisage a re-drawing of borders between Arab countries? I'm no expert but from what I can tell there seems to be quite a strong national pride within the countries... the Egyptians are proud to be Egyptian and were fighting to free their country. There's a sense of solidarity between the peoples of different nations, but I can't see them negotiating over borders.
 
You envisage a re-drawing of borders between Arab countries? I'm no expert but from what I can tell there seems to be quite a strong national pride within the countries... the Egyptians are proud to be Egyptian and were fighting to free their country. There's a sense of solidarity between the peoples of different nations, but I can't see them negotiating over borders.

I can, Sudan has just split in two, the borders are nothing more then lines in the sand
 
I can, Sudan has just split in two, the borders are nothing more then lines in the sand

Libya could split because of the tribal divisions within the country and society, but Egypt and Tunisia don't really have that, do they?
 
At what point would it be morally right for foreign powers to send in forces to stabilise the situation? I assume if a genocide was taking place we'd all agree that you just get in there as quick as possible, but should you act pre-emptively?
 
I don't think the UN could or would act quickly enough to be any use. I'm not sure about how close Libya is to Russia or China, but I think China would oppose any intervention if it went to the Security Council because it has done similar things to its own people.

It would be down to the West to intervene. Other Arab countries aren't in any state to become involved, nor is the African Union. No one wants to face the issues and costs of trying to rebuild a government or country. Maybe NATO with a focus on Turkey could intervene to take out Gaddafi?
 
I figured you didn't because the country has existed for so long and wasn't drawn up by a bunch of British or French generals who had no clue what they were doing(Iraq).
 
Qaddafi's speech was like something out of Austin Powers or the Naked Gun. He's clearly heavily medicated, in addition to being insane.
 
At what point would it be morally right for foreign powers to send in forces to stabilise the situation? I assume if a genocide was taking place we'd all agree that you just get in there as quick as possible, but should you act pre-emptively?

You mean similar to the moral intervention in Darfur and Congo?
 
Link: Revolution in Cairo - Video | FRONTLINE | PBS


Very good piece on Egypt broadcast yesterday by PBS documentary series Frontline. Two parts - one covers the organizers of the protests, the second explores the role of the Muslim Brotherhood. Great footage, and interviews with some key players.

I recommend.
 
At what point would it be morally right for foreign powers to send in forces to stabilise the situation? I assume if a genocide was taking place we'd all agree that you just get in there as quick as possible, but should you act pre-emptively?

The Do-Gooders at it again? Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1978, to save the people from a repressive regime.
 
The Do-Gooders at it again? Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1978, to save the people from a repressive regime.

As did the Americans when they 'liberated' Afghanistan and Iraq in 2002 in 2003 respectively, and the Israelis 'liberating' Lebanon..several times since 1982. I could go on.

Foreign intervention is never a good idea and is very rarely driven by a genuine humanitarian concern. I'm sure the Libyans would welcome diplomatic support which calls for Gadaffi to step down (The Arab league has done a good job in suspending Libya's membership), but not having foreign troops littered all over the place.

That being said I myself wouldn't object a UN peace-keeping force, so long as it remains impartially driven. But for the most part I think Gadaffi will eventually fall by the will of his people alone, just as was proven in Tunisia and Egypt.

I only wish Iraq was not invaded, that way the Iraqis would have surely toppled Saddam by similar means today :(
 
As did the Americans when they 'liberated' Afghanistan and Iraq in 2002 in 2003 respectively, and the Israelis 'liberating' Lebanon..several times since 1982. I could go on.

Foreign intervention is never a good idea and is very rarely driven by a genuine humanitarian concern. I'm sure the Libyans would welcome diplomatic support which calls for Gadaffi to step down (The Arab league has done a good job in suspending Libya's membership), but not having foreign troops littered all over the place.

That being said I myself wouldn't object a UN peace-keeping force, so long as it remains impartially driven. But for the most part I think Gadaffi will eventually fall by the will of his people alone, just as was proven in Tunisia and Egypt.

I only wish Iraq was not invaded, that way the Iraqis would have surely toppled Saddam by similar means today :(

I agree that as a general policy, unilateral interventionism isn't a good one (at least in most instances). However that's how our anarchic system of nation states is set up. There is no legitimate central authority to prevent dominant nation states from playing power politics with smaller ones. We are slowly moving towards a world government, at which point these matters will be easier to adjudicate.
 
I agree that as a general policy, unilateral interventionism isn't a good one (at least in most instances). However that's how our anarchic system of nation states is set up. There is no legitimate central authority to prevent dominant nation states from playing power politics with smaller ones. We are slowly moving towards a world government, at which point these matters will be easier to adjudicate.

The Militiamen in Arkansas are going to kill you.
 
At what point would it be morally right for foreign powers to send in forces to stabilise the situation? I assume if a genocide was taking place we'd all agree that you just get in there as quick as possible, but should you act pre-emptively?

This assumes that the prevous 40 years of dictatorship was ameniable. Isn't their a strong moral imperative to remove dictators like we did with Saddam?

How quick did we move in on Rwanda?

Unless there is some a) mineral resource b) strategic point, we won't be moving in quick, if at all.
 
I wasn't speculating about what will happen, I was thinking about what should happen.
 
I'm sure the Libyans would welcome diplomatic support which calls for Gadaffi to step down (The Arab league has done a good job in suspending Libya's membership), but not having foreign troops littered all over the place.

That being said I myself wouldn't object a UN peace-keeping force, so long as it remains impartially driven. But for the most part I think Gadaffi will eventually fall by the will of his people alone, just as was proven in Tunisia and Egypt.

You from the UK? bet the Libyan civilians bombarded and killed in the streets would get great comfort from diplomatic support and they are probably equally as thankful that you don't object to a impartial UN peace-keeping force..:wenger:

:lol:ffs, just switch channels to footy (intellectually probably more your level) this when you sit back home in your armchair and don't fecking tell anyone what the Libyan civilians are thinking
 
One thing we can be glad of is that Gaddafi doesn't have the WMDs that he was pursuing before giving it up in 2003. I don't think he would be too hesitant to use them at the moment. While the Libyan soldiers might be hesitant, the new mercenaries would have little stopping them.

Also, depending on the UN to use political pressure or even a form of intervention is pointless. There isn't time for sanctions to work on Gaddafi while saving lives, and often times nations "don't want to get involved" so the process falls at the Security Council. Like Rwanda, governments just let it happen so they don't get involved. Clinton really screwed up by not sending troops into Rwanda with or without the approval of the UN(much easier to say with hindsight).

I'm not saying that anyone should necessarily go into Libya at present, but depending on the the UN is a little silly with something as important as this.
 
You from the UK? bet the Libyan civilians bombarded and killed in the streets would get great comfort from diplomatic support and they are probably equally as thankful that you don't object to a impartial UN peace-keeping force..:wenger:

:lol:ffs, just switch channels to footy (intellectually probably more your level) this when you sit back home in your armchair and don't fecking tell anyone what the Libyan civilians are thinking

Nope, from Iraq actually, but I appreciate your input.

I'm not speaking for the Libyan civilians - I think the scenes in Tripoli and Benghazi are already doing so. I'm simply stating something which has been proven many times before - foreign intervention very rarely works, and trust me I was there to witness it's failure in a certain country.

Now instead of lavishing childish insults, may I ask what you think the west should be doing?
 
The FCO is doing a sterling job as usual, expats know that their last call should be to them.
 
Nope, from Iraq actually, but I appreciate your input.

I'm not speaking for the Libyan civilians - I think the scenes in Tripoli and Benghazi are already doing so. I'm simply stating something which has been proven many times before - foreign intervention very rarely works, and trust me I was there to witness it's failure in a certain country.

Now instead of lavishing childish insults, may I ask what you think the west should be doing?

all Gadaffi needs is the excuse of the US or Britain getting involved.

and even if they did how many civilians are going to be killed by our aircraft.

would be playing into his hands.
 
Sarah Palin talking sense :eek:

"Gaddafi is a brutal killer and Libya – not to mention the world – would be better off if he were out of power. Now is the time to speak out. Speak out for the long-suffering Libyan people. Speak out for the victims of Gaddafi's terror. Nato and our allies should look at establishing a no-fly zone so Libyan air forces cannot continue slaughtering the Libyan people. We should not be afraid of freedom, especially when it comes to people suffering under a brutal enemy of America. Here's to freedom from Gaddafi for the people of Libya."
 
10000 in 1 week?

Whilst it is unusual it is far from unheard of, the most famous example in recent years was the Rwandan Genocide in 1994 where in the space of three months somewhere in the vicinity of 750,000 people were murdered.
 
Gaddafi is easy for America, RK...

He isn't an ally, Pam Am, bombing in Berlin etc etc...

I wouldn't be so quick, a stable country that has imploded in a hostile region, a major oil producer with money to spend and a fundamentalist base in a defacto civil war where anything can happen, there will be people in Washington right now who will be thinking the devil I know is better than the devil I don't.

This has real potential to be Algeria all over again, it doesn't look like it will, but it could.
 
The Militiamen in Arkansas are going to kill you.

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Libya could split because of the tribal divisions within the country and society, but Egypt and Tunisia don't really have that, do they?

Libya was a country designed by that great bastion of European imperialism - Italy, whilst Egypt and Tunisia are the oldest unified civilisations in Africa and have pretty much had the borders they do now for thousands of years.
 
I didn't think Egypt was one of Africa's oldest civilisations. Learn something new everyday....