A people's Revolution

BTV_is_neutral said:
Someone with a decent grasp of this, or who has followed the story closer than I have....would it be fair to say, the Good Colonel now controls less than 40% of his country(albeit a very important 40%)
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Landmass, population and even economic strength are of secondary concern in such a discussion. In a country where one city dominates, where the state, its functions and civil service resides in that one city then it is key, regardless if whether the rest of the country is under your control or not.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Landmass, population and even economic strength are of secondary concern in such a discussion. In a country where one city dominates, where the state, its functions and civil service resides in that one city then it is key, regardless if whether the rest of the country is under your control or not.
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True...very true.

But I was thinking along the lines of a siege. If he continues to lose his 'grip' and city after city falls, until he has nothing but Tripoli, and opposition elements take control of entry/exit points from the city, surely the end would be imminent...the city(his supporters/army/militia) will require supplies to sustain them, will they not?
 
Egyptian parliamentary elections in June, and presidential in August.. Too hasty!! No one is ready for the parliamentary elections but the ex-ruling part and the MB !!!
 
I can't say it's totally bad. esp. that there was a meeting on TV with the army generals and they all talked and showed their understanding of our concerns about such hasty elections. We will remain worried though.. it' a revolution so the paranoia is expected
 
TRIPOLI, Libya — An international campaign to force Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi out of office gathered pace on Monday as the European Union adopted an arms embargo and other sanctions, the opposition showed increasing signs of organization in the east, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton bluntly told the Libyan leader to surrender power “now, without further violence or delay.”

With the rebel and loyalist forces locked in an increasingly tense stand-off on the ground, the prime ministers of France and Britain echoed Mrs. Clinton’s call for Colonel Qaddafi to go, Germany proposed a 60-day ban on financial transactions, and a spokeswoman for Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said that contacts were being established with the opposition.

Italy’s foreign minister on Sunday suspended a nonaggression treaty with Libya on the grounds that the Libyan state “no longer exists,” while Mrs. Clinton said the United States was reaching out to the rebels to “offer any kind of assistance.”

France said it was sending medical aid. Prime Minister François Fillon said planes loaded with doctors, nurses and supplies were heading to the rebel-controlled eastern city of Benghazi, calling the airlift “the beginning of a massive operation of humanitarian support for the populations of liberated territories.”

Monday was a day of increasing self-confidence among the rebels, who spoke of tapping revenue from the vast Libyan oil resources now under their control — estimated by some oil company officials to be about 80 percent of the country’s total.

There were also new reports of fighting. The rebels claimed to have shot down a military aircraft as they repulsed a government bid to take back Libya’s third city, Misurata, 125 miles east of Tripoli. There, as in Zawiyah, one of several breakaway cities near the capital, government forces seem to have encircled rebels but have been unable to dislodge them.

Across the region, the tumult that has been threatening one autocratic government after another since the turn of the year continued unabated. In Yemen, protests drove President Ali Abdullah Saleh to make a bid for a unity government, but the political opposition rapidly refused. An opposition leader, Mohamed al-Sabry, said in a statement that the president’s proposal was a “desperate attempt” to counter major protests planned for Tuesday.

In Bahrain, protesters blocked access to Parliament, according to news agencies. In Oman, whose first major protests were reported over the weekend, demonstrations turned violent in the port city of Sohar, and spread for the first time to the capital, Muscat.

The international diplomatic campaign focused on Libya was offset by mounting worries of a building humanitarian crisis as tens of thousands of mainly poor contract workers stood in lines to leave Libya for its neighbors, Tunisia to the west and Egypt to the east.

The United Nations refugee agency called the situation a humanitarian emergency as workers hefting suitcases of possessions stood in long lines to leave Libya, many of them uncertain how they would finally get home.

Mr. Fillon told the RTL broadcaster that the French government was studying “all solutions to make it so that Colonel Qaddafi understands that he should go, that he should leave power.” British Prime Minister David Cameron declared: “It’s time for Colonel Qaddafi to go.”

In the face of such calls, the Libyan authorities blamed Islamic radicals and the West on Monday for a conspiracy to cause chaos and take over the country.

At a news conference for foreign journalists invited to Tripoli, a government spokesman, Musa Ibrahim, denied reports that Colonel Qaddafi’s loyalists had turned their guns on hundreds of civilians. “No massacres, no bombardments, no reckless violence against civilians,” he said, comparing Libya’s situation to that of Iraq before the American-led invasion in 2003.

But Mr. Ibrahim insisted that Libya still sought some kind of gradual political opening as suggested by the colonel’s son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi.

“We are not like Egypt or Tunisia,” the spokesman said. “We are a very Bedouin tribal society. People know that and want gradual change.”

Reporters told him that, on Sunday, they had visited Zawiyah, 30 miles from Tripoli, and saw no evidence of Islamist forces. “They knew you were coming,” the spokesman said. “They were hiding those with an obvious Al Qaeda look.”

The visit came a day after defecting officers in the east of the vast, desert nation took steps to establish a unified command while their followers in the rebel-held city of Zawiyah, just outside the leader’s stronghold in the capital, displayed tanks, Kalashnikovs and antiaircraft guns.

Mr. Ibrahim said reports of massacres by government troops were analogous to those suggesting that Saddam Hussein had developed unconventional weapons in Iraq, suggesting that they were designed as a reason for military attack.

“The Islamists want chaos; the West also wants chaos,” he said, maintaining the West wanted access to Libya’s oil and the Islamists wanted to establish a bridgehead for international terrorism. “The Iraq example is not a legend — we all lived through it. Doesn’t this remind you of the whole Iraq scenario?” he said.

Later on Monday, the authorities, keen to show calm prevailing, took reporters on a tour that included Roman ruins at Sabratha, 40 miles west of Tripoli, where a pro-Qaddafi crowd chanted slogans. Afterward, a member of the crowd was asked by a reporter whether he had been paid to demonstrate in favor of the government. “Yes,” he replied, suggesting that he harbored sentiments other than those he had chanted in the slogans supportive of Colonel Qaddafi. “And, believe me, we will get our freedom.”

The official Libyan arguments have become familiar as Colonel Qaddafi’s opponents seem to gain ground. Referring to Libya, the head of the human rights body, Navi Pillay, demanded in a speech on Monday that: “The rights of the protesters must be upheld and asylum seekers, migrants and other foreign nationals fleeing the violence must be protected,” news agencies reported.

In Geneva, Mrs. Clinton met with her European counterparts and other senior diplomats to intensify international pressure to force out Colonel Qaddafi.

In remarks to the United Nations Human Rights Council, an organization the United States once shunned because of its inclusion of countries like Libya, she said that the American administration would consider additional measures, but she did not announce any.

“We all need to work together on further steps to hold the Qaddafi government accountable, provide humanitarian assistance to those in need and support the Libyan people as they pursue a transition to democracy,” Mrs. Clinton said.

She cited reports of “indiscriminate killings, arbitrary arrests and torture,” as well as Libyan soldiers being executed “for refusing to turn their guns on their fellow citizens.”

“We will continue to explore all possible options for actions,” she added. “As we have said, nothing is off the table so long as the Libyan government continues to threaten and kill Libyans.”

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that in their meeting in a Geneva hotel, he and Mrs. Clinton did not discuss military measures, such as imposing a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace.

On Sunday, the most striking display of strength was seen in Zawiyah, where rebels have repulsed repeated attempts by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake them. And the arsenal they displayed helped to explain how the rebels held Zawiyah.

But with their increasing firepower, the rebels appeared to break the pattern of nonviolent revolts set by neighboring Egypt and Tunisia and now sweeping the Middle East — just as Colonel Qaddafi has shown a willingness to shed far more of his citizens’ blood than any of the region’s other autocrats.

The maneuverings by both sides suggested they were girding for a confrontation that could influence the shape of other protest movements and the responses of other rulers who feel threatened by insurrections. Colonel Qaddafi’s militias, plainclothes police and other paramilitary forces have kept the deserted streets of Tripoli under a lockdown.

In interviews with ABC News, two of Colonel Qaddafi’s sons appeared to mix defiance and denial. “The people — everybody wants more,” said Saadi el-Qaddafi, apparently dismissing the public outcry for a more accountable government. “There is no limit. You give this, then you get asked for that, you know?”

He described the uprisings around the region as “an earthquake” and predicted, “Chaos will be everywhere.” If his father left, he said, Libya would face a civil war “one hour later.”

His brother Seif seemed to challenge journalists to look for signs of unrest. “Please, take your cameras tomorrow morning, even tonight,” he said. “Everything is calm. Everything is peaceful.”

In Benghazi, rebels said that Libyan soldiers had joined the rebels in securing vital oil industry facilities around that part of the country. Some oil industry workers fleeing across the Tunisian border in recent days said they had seen Libyan soldiers fire their weapons to drive off foreign mercenaries or other security forces who had approached oil facilities not far from here.

Hassan Bulifa, who sits on the management committee of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the country’s largest oil producer, said that the rebels control at least 80 percent of the country’s oil assets, and that his company, based in Benghazi, was cooperating with them. The company resumed oil shipments on Sunday, loading two tankers at a port in Tobruk, Mr. Bulifa said. The ships — one bound for Austria and the other for China — represented the company’s first shipments since Feb. 10.

Although the revenue from those sales goes the company’s umbrella organization, Libya’s National Oil Company, Mr. Bulifa said Arabian Gulf Oil had ceased any coordination with the national company, though it was honoring oil contracts. And he insisted the proceeds would ultimately flow to the rebels, not Colonel Qaddafi. “Qaddafi and his gangsters will not have a hand on them,” he said. “We are not worried about the revenues.”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html?pagewanted=2&hp

Basically, shit just got real
 
Apparently we(the US) have started moving naval assets into the area in case there is a need for a no fly zone or other actions. Mostly just moving things around in the mediterranean.
 
Sir Matt said:
Apparently we(the US) have started moving naval assets into the area in case there is a need for a no fly zone or other actions. Mostly just moving things around in the mediterranean.
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They're not moving naval assets in for that reason.
 
Sir Matt said:
Let me guess...it's for the oil? Do you write speeches for Qaddafi?
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The whole regime is being spiralled into uncertainty, the US fear they could lose their grip on the middle east. It's nothing to do with them being concerned for the the Libyan people, otherwise they would have dispatched a lot sooner. I'd imagine that it's not just Libya which influenced this movement. Their puppet regime in Egypt has fallen, Bahrain, where they have a naval base, is undergoing large protests, then there's the big one planned in Saudi Arabia...I could go on.
 
RedKaos said:
The whole regime is being spiralled into uncertainty, the US fear they could lose their grip on the middle east. It's nothing to do with them being concerned for the the Libyan people, otherwise they would have dispatched a lot sooner. I'd imagine that it's not just Libya which influenced this movement. Their puppet regime in Egypt has fallen, Bahrain, where they have a naval base, is undergoing large protests, then there's the big one planned in Saudi Arabia...I could go on.
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So we already have ships in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. What good does moving the ones in the Mediterranean closer to Libya do for those?

The last Americans didn't leave until Friday so it's ridiculous to expect the US to already have a no fly zone in place when it could endanger American lives. Given the need for internal debate and conversations between the West, two days is pretty quick to at last get the ball rolling.
 
Both Amr Mousa and the Arab league are an absolute joke. The only good thing about the Arab League was Gadaffi's insane ramblings.
 
:lol: Von Rompuy says the EU will meet in 10 days to discuss an EU response. That's really helpful...

Hugo isn't convinced that Qaddafi is really a murderer.

They've also been fighting battles across the country been the army and Free Libyans.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Saif Gaddafi is aspiring to be the next Comical Ali.
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Calling the British Prime Minister a wannabe hero and branding his handling of the crisis a joke during an interview with Sky News today was probably not the smartest move by Gaddafi Junior.
 
RedKaos said:
The whole regime is being spiralled into uncertainty, the US fear they could lose their grip on the middle east. It's nothing to do with them being concerned for the the Libyan people, otherwise they would have dispatched a lot sooner. I'd imagine that it's not just Libya which influenced this movement. Their puppet regime in Egypt has fallen, Bahrain, where they have a naval base, is undergoing large protests, then there's the big one planned in Saudi Arabia...I could go on.
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easy on the Press TV.
 
Sir Matt said:
:lol: Von Rompuy says the EU will meet in 10 days to discuss an EU response. That's really helpful...

Hugo isn't convinced that Qaddafi is really a murderer.

They've also been fighting battles across the country been the army and Free Libyans.
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The problem with all of these overtures at helping, is that events on the ground are quickly outpacing attempts to react to them.
 
Von Rompuy is an idiot, and putting a 10 day delay on it is ridiculous. I'm guessing he's hoping Qaddafi will have been toppled by then so the EU doesn't have to do anything. In an area so near the EU, it seems like there would be on-going, substantive discussions about what to do amongst members rather than just putting it off.

Given the speed of changes happening every day, it would be nice for NATO or someone to act quickly, but it's not going to happen that way.
 
Sir Matt said:
Von Rompuy is an idiot, and putting a 10 day delay on it is ridiculous. I'm guessing he's hoping Qaddafi will have been toppled by then so the EU doesn't have to do anything. In an area so near the EU, it seems like there would be on-going, substantive discussions about what to do amongst members rather than just putting it off.

Given the speed of changes happening every day, it would be nice for NATO or someone to act quickly, but it's not going to happen that way.
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Probably nothing will be done by anyone in the hope that the opposition take care of business themselves. The US is however moving some ships in the area as a show of force.
 
rednev said:
Calling the British Prime Minister a wannabe hero and branding his handling of the crisis a joke during an interview with Sky News today was probably not the smartest move by Gaddafi Junior.
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D-Cam is a wannabe hero though...so that comment is fair enough.

But how do these jokers keep a straight face when making such outlandish comments?

"Find one person who has been attacked"

WTF are you talking about? They've got video of people getting killed...I wish the reporter had pressed him on that issue.

"Yes, I've gotten some calls from the East of the country...we have some issues there, the banks are having problems, so people are calling for that"

:wenger: :wenger:

He is not doing the reputation of LSE any good either, rambling, bumbling, incoherent idiot.
 
The UN, US etc should stay out of Libya as they were happy to sit back and tolerate a dictator - the time to act if they truly believed in democracy was many moons ago - now it will be seen as what it is a naked grab to ensure resources remain in the right hands.
 
The only reason Cameron and the others are trying to act tough is that they want to woo the Libyans but where were these same politicians when Ghadafi was appropriating Libyan wealth? As long as Saif Ghaddafi was spending money in London and Libya was taking advice from the UK financial sector these were never issues to be concerned about.
 
Raoul said:
Probably nothing will be done by anyone in the hope that the opposition take care of business themselves. The US is however moving some ships in the area as a show of force.
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:lol: I posted the navy thing and got RK's response that you laughed at up the page. It has been a while since we've had a NFZ though. Might provide the basis for a new Top Gun!
 
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