Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Paul the Wolf said:
You don't have to keep saying this.

At the moment UK parliament is deciding whether it's staying in the EU, going into transition, shooting itself in the foot. It's a sovereign decision, you know the sovereignty Brexiters so desperately want but of course don't want if it doesn't go their way. Just like the judges being the"Enemies of the People".

Nobody in the EU is deciding the UK's fate.
Click to expand...

I know that Paul. I didn’t say otherwise.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU has been saying the same thing since the beginning but no-one in the UK is listening including Corbyn who still thinks, two and half years later,can have his cake and eat it. Corbyn has alienated himself not only from the Tories but the other parties as well so playing a blinder I would say is the opposite of what he has done. Even JRM said he will continue to back the government, anything to keep Corbyn out of power.
Click to expand...

Corbyn is just parroting a compromise on Brexit as he is fully aware he'll never get to implement it anyway. No doubt he is a leaver along similar lines to JRM / ERG position on the EU but will never admit it.

It's not the ERG or JRM May needs to be worried about. They are very happy for her to play chicken with no deal. That is what they want anyway.

It's the remainers in the conservative party, Boles and Grieve are the most notable, 22 of them signed that letter to rule out no deal and there are a lot more. I am certain they and others would abstain in a confidence vote if the other option was a no deal Brexit.

Preferring to stop no deal, withdraw article 50 and fight an election.

The Tories are pushing the self destruct button keeping May and Corbyn just needs to wait.
 
Mb194dc said:
Corbyn is just parroting a compromise on Brexit as he is fully aware he'll never get to implement it anyway. No doubt he is a leaver along similar lines to JRM / ERG position on the EU but will never admit it.

It's not the ERG or JRM May needs to be worried about. They are very happy for her to play chicken with no deal. That is what they want anyway.

It's the remainers in the conservative party, Boles and Grieve are the most notable, 22 of them signed that letter to rule out no deal and there are a lot more. I am certain they and others would abstain in a confidence vote if the other option was a no deal Brexit.

Preferring to stop no deal, withdraw article 50 and fight an election.

The Tories are pushing the self destruct button keeping May and Corbyn just needs to wait.
Click to expand...

The only way to stop No deal if parliament can't come up with an acceptable alternative to the EU, is to cancel Brexit. Who is going to cancel Brexit? May doesn't want to and Corbyn, who clearly is a Brexiter, doesn't want to either.

Don't see how Corbyn could ever win enough votes/seats to be PM and if he wants to leave the EU he's blown that as well.
 
Cheesy said:
You weren't necessarily ignoring them but you were perfectly willing to argue in Corbyn's favour all the same in spite of the fact that polling indicated he wasn't good enough. You actually had a point here though - by getting him into a position in 2017 where he was actually able to argue his points effectively, he improved and managed to dent the Tories majority. Not a win, and so not exactly brilliant, but an improvement all the same.

The same principle should surely apply to the parties approach to the EU though. The referendum itself was massive but it was won by a narrow margin, fueled by disinformation, ignored the contentious Irish border issue which literally has the potential to threaten lives if it goes sour, and didn't give the Tories anything near the mandate to push for the hard Brexit they've been advocating for since 2016. Up until recently Labour were supportive of that approach out of the sentiment that they couldn't go against it because of polling. Even though Corbyn's initial approach was quite literally to advocate for what was best instead of following the numbers.

Now the party seems to be mildly supportive of staying in the customs union and will go for that approach but it's still fairly muddled in that they'll make vague feints to the idea of a People's Vote even though they don't seem keen on backing one. And whenever the parties position is criticised in regards to the EU polling numbers are often the first thing pulled out. As is regularly evidenced in this thread, where the Lib Dems are regularly ridiculed for their shit polling numbers (that being a reason not to vote for them) even though for the majority of Corbyn's reign he's had...shit polling numbers!

There's surely got to be some consistency in there somewhere. The party are happy to follow the polling when it suits them but will happily advocate for other positions they like when it doesn't. And if your argument for supporting Brexit is due to it being one of the biggest referendums in electoral history, then argue on that point. Don't then pretend it's about polling.
Click to expand...

That's a very simplistic argument that seems to just group all polling on all issues together. You can't compare polling on individuals with polling on policy and you certainly can't compare the situation of polling on untested policies with mandated ones. The GE happened and a manifesto was approved.

The point seems to keep getting missed Corbyns approach was to stand on a new platform that took Labour away from the centre and empowered the membership to input on policy. That happened including approving Labours current approach to Brexit and they haven't yet deviated from it (yet).

Perhaps Corbyn should throw caution to the wind ignore conference, the GE mandate his MPs won seats on and go with a ref despite not knowing it'll pass but that would be the inconsistency not what you're suggesting.
 
Mb194dc said:
Corbyn is just parroting a compromise on Brexit as he is fully aware he'll never get to implement it anyway. No doubt he is a leaver along similar lines to JRM / ERG position on the EU but will never admit it.

It's not the ERG or JRM May needs to be worried about. They are very happy for her to play chicken with no deal. That is what they want anyway.

It's the remainers in the conservative party, Boles and Grieve are the most notable, 22 of them signed that letter to rule out no deal and there are a lot more. I am certain they and others would abstain in a confidence vote if the other option was a no deal Brexit.

Preferring to stop no deal, withdraw article 50 and fight an election.

The Tories are pushing the self destruct button keeping May and Corbyn just needs to wait.
Click to expand...

And right on cue, here ye go folks
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0120/1024336-brexit/

One group led by Tory former minister Nick Boles and the senior Labour MP Yvette Cooper is attempting to block a no-deal Brexit - something Mrs May strongly opposes.

However The Sunday Times reported that a second group led by the former attorney general Dominic Grieve wants to go further and suspend the Article 50 withdrawal process.

....

The Sunday Times said it had obtained leaked emails showing that Mr Grieve had been in secret communication with a Commons clerk of bills Colin Lee to discuss how it could be possible suspend Article 50
Click to expand...
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The only way to stop No deal if parliament can't come up with an acceptable alternative to the EU, is to cancel Brexit. Who is going to cancel Brexit? May doesn't want to and Corbyn, who clearly is a Brexiter, doesn't want to either.

Don't see how Corbyn could ever win enough votes/seats to be PM and if he wants to leave the EU he's blown that as well.
Click to expand...

Well if it gets the votes Parliament will soon put it into legal force. Whether May can refuse to act on it is an interesting debate but i think she'll do it but blame it on parlaiment and by parlaiment i mean Labour.
 
Smores said:
Well if it gets the votes Parliament will soon put it into legal force. Whether May can refuse to act on it is an interesting debate but i think she'll do it but blame it on parlaiment and by parlaiment i mean Labour.
Click to expand...


It's all fascinating but whatever happens in parliament they , all of them I mean, seem to be alienating the electorate.
 
sun_tzu said:
Looks like Corbyn is going to face pressure to pick a side

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...19/jan/20/corbyn-to-back-no-deal-brexit-block

Norway or 2nd ref
Click to expand...

It's a false choice, Norway or 2nd vote and not one they need to make. Labour are not in government so they don't need a credible policy position on Brexit. Just to decide how to vote on whatever the government puts up.

Backing the no deal motion makes sense as it hems May in more.

The EU27 will refuse to extend article 50 of course, it's not a unilateral decision we can take. So if this motion passes we would have to withdraw article 50 it if no deal is the other option.
 
stevoc said:
Where did this guy come from, am i right in thinking no one had heard of him before Brexit?
Click to expand...

I remember a while before the Brexit issue came out he was on the radio quite a few times, can’t remember what about, but was being touted as the bright “new” future of the Conservative Party.

Then came his “I’m afraid so” comment when asked about abortion in the case of rape and then along came Brexit.
 
JPRouve said:
How an EFTA type of agreement fixes the border issue? And it's also not a withdrawal agreement, the backstop issue would still exists in the short to mid term.
Click to expand...

This is what's driving me nuts.

Canada and Norway are no solutions and other than cancelling Brexit there still has to be a withdrawal agreement whatever else is decided and the only one possible has been soundly rejected. Almost no-one in the UK seems to realise this.
 
JPRouve said:
How an EFTA type of agreement fixes the border issue? And it's also not a withdrawal agreement, the backstop issue would still exists in the short to mid term.
Click to expand...
Starmer's acknowledged as much today.
 
Mb194dc said:
I think Corbyn has played a blinder.

He knows May's strategy is now to run down the clock playing chicken with no deal in the hope of getting the backstop removed. So she can't agree to take no deal off the table.

I think the EU will come and say they won't be changing it under any circumstances and mean it.

Corbyn can still table more no confidence motions. May has such a small majority, ultimately Tory remainers like Boles and Grieve will peel off and government will lose. Most Tory MPs do not want no deal.

Likely Brexit will be cancelled and Corbyn will win a crushing victory in the resulting GE.
Click to expand...
Sorry but why would Brexit be cancelled, and by whom?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
This is what's driving me nuts.

Canada and Norway are no solutions and other than cancelling Brexit there still has to be a withdrawal agreement whatever else is decided and the only one possible has been soundly rejected. Almost no-one in the UK seems to realise this.
Click to expand...
Norway with customs union does solve the border issue, no?
 
The headline on the BBC is Liam Fox using the sentence "A leave population versus a remain parliament".

Like as if leave is any way a serious majority in the country. Recent polls suggest the opposite. How does this drivel not getting pulled up?
 
Democracy:
Vote for something then let the policiticians complete the job.

Well... the politicians have completed the job. The result is a Brexit that doesn't work. The next step in the Democratic process should be to ask the people how to proceed.

If we take to the Leavers' arguments about Democracy to its logical conclusion, a second Referendum is the most acceptable recourse.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's the EU without a say or a vote, still needs a withdrawal agreement as well. Why would anyone want this other than to technically say the UK left the EU.

Edit: and EFTA agreement to allow UK to join them.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that it won't happen, EFTA members don't want to lose their autonomy and there is an issue with the current trade deals that they have, these trade deals are meant for small countries, the addition of the UK would most likely require their renegotiation.
 
JPRouve said:
My understanding is that it won't happen, EFTA members don't want to lose their autonomy and there is an issue with the current trade deals that they have, these trade deals are meant for small countries, the addition of the UK would most likely require their renegotiation.
Click to expand...

That's my understanding as well.

Monday should be interesting in parliament , with all the factions trying to agree more impossibilities.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
That's my understanding as well.

Monday should be interesting in parliament , with all the factions trying to agree more impossibilities.
Click to expand...
And a vote on Tuesday I think?
Will be interesting to see the amendments that are chosen to be voted on as there are a lot being spoken about.
In theory brexit should look a lot clearer on Wednesday morning however I still don't rule out may rolling the dice on a snap general election if she feels she has lost control of the process
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Sorry but why would Brexit be cancelled, and by whom?
Click to expand...

No deal and the withdrawal agreement are both unacceptable.

Nothing else is on the table or even been asked for. Government hemed in by different factions in the conservative party.

Grieve, or national government coalition most likely.
 
sun_tzu said:
And a vote on Tuesday I think?
Will be interesting to see the amendments that are chosen to be voted on as there are a lot being spoken about.
In theory brexit should look a lot clearer on Wednesday morning however I still don't rule out may rolling the dice on a snap general election if she feels she has lost control of the process
Click to expand...

You're being extremely optimistic that Brexit will look clearer.
All I see a GE doing is giving them a break from the squabbling and then recommencing where they left off and continue going round in circles.

Then whatever is decided it has also got to be agreed by all the relevant parties outside parliament i.e. the organisations that really have to agree, the EU, EFTA etc.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You're being extremely optimistic that Brexit will look clearer.
All I see a GE doing is giving them a break from the squabbling and then recommencing where they left off and continue going round in circles.

Then whatever is decided it has also got to be agreed by all the relevant parties outside parliament i.e. the organisations that really have to agree, the EU, EFTA etc.
Click to expand...
No I'm saying after the vote on Tuesday it should look clearer (can parliment take over... Is there really a majority who will vote to prevent no deal etc)... But that if that happens I half expect may to open up a general election which as you say clouds things even more than now
 
sun_tzu said:
And a vote on Tuesday I think?
Will be interesting to see the amendments that are chosen to be voted on as there are a lot being spoken about.
In theory brexit should look a lot clearer on Wednesday morning however I still don't rule out may rolling the dice on a snap general election if she feels she has lost control of the process
Click to expand...
I just can't see how May would resolve that a GE is her best course of action out of this. She's crap at it and her party is riven. If she just wants the sweet release of political death she might as well just resign and be done with it.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
This is what's driving me nuts.

Canada and Norway are no solutions and other than cancelling Brexit there still has to be a withdrawal agreement whatever else is decided and the only one possible has been soundly rejected. Almost no-one in the UK seems to realise this.
Click to expand...

Not sure that is the case if its a no deal scenario? At the end of the Art 50 period if there is no agreement on withdrawal then the UK just leaves. Isn't this what they called the cliff edge?
May did say at one point the UK would pay what it owes, but the implication wasn't clear as to whether it would be part of a formal withdrawal agreement, or something we might offer the EU to encourage them to begin new trade talks further down the line, after we have formally left.

I still believe Brexit will now be cancelled, its just a question of whether May can blame Corbyn, or the other way around?
 
Mb194dc said:
No deal and the withdrawal agreement are both unacceptable.

Nothing else is on the table or even been asked for. Government hemed in by different factions in the conservative party.

Grieve, or national government coalition most likely.
Click to expand...
I cant see MPs forcing that instead of an extension tbh. Time will tell!
 
Maticmaker said:
Not sure that is the case if its a no deal scenario? At the end of the Art 50 period if there is no agreement on withdrawal then the UK just leaves. Isn't this what they called the cliff edge?
May did say at one point the UK would pay what it owes, but the implication wasn't clear as to whether it would be part of a formal withdrawal agreement, or something we might offer the EU to encourage them to begin new trade talks further down the line, after we have formally left.

I still believe Brexit will now be cancelled, its just a question of whether May can blame Corbyn, or the other way around?
Click to expand...

Yes if there is no deal . The Uk needs the withdrawal agreement to negotiate something afterwards. No withdrawal agreement means cliff edge.
Unfortunately people were led to believe that there would be an actual deal at the end of the 2 year period after A50 was triggered.

The withdrawal agreement is just a step to the next stage.
If the Uk fails to pay what it owes it will look very poor on the international stage.
If the UK just leave then they wouldn't pay the full amount because that includes the transition period up to the end of 2020.

At this moment I'm still at 90% No Deal - 10% cancel Brexit.
Maybe this coming week will change things.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.