Devilish,
You pose good questions, my thoughts below.
When you say unreasonable, do you have a parting fee of £100bn or £50 bn in mind. To me those figures are ludicrous, sure if we want to remain in the market with our opts then arguably we could pay an annual fee for access though anything close to £12bn would be politically unacceptable. In terms of a settlement I would say only for settling a ratio of pension / staff costs for the EU parliament based on a ratio shared amongst the other nations and for the period of membership. I doubt this would exceed £1bn and that might be high. Of course we might argue that has already been paid for the last 40 years by our payments to the EU.
Any annual / periodic fee for single market access or EU technology sharing ideally should be applied to those industries / groups seen to be benefitting though they might baulk at the cost.
Know what you mean about the US being a trade bully and economies of scale, and us being in a vulnerable situation, no argument from me.
I don't think the US will seek to punish us though the better question might be how far they would go to help us. Under Trump we might actually get a hand though how that would work is anyone's guess. We already have done deals with the Chinese Investment Bank that the US did not initially like.
It is possible that we might seek to lower corporation tax in the short term to retain corporate HQs, something I am not keen on though would accept this with the priority being on the financial side.
There is another possibility that we might already be encouraging other countries to withdraw perhaps with silent promises, I haven't heard of this yet would not be surprised.
I don't actually think this will break the Union, it could cause issues and certainly the SNP would look to capitalise yet with Catalonia threatening a break away I don't think the EU will be too keen to seem meddlesome in this area for being seen as a hypocrite.
In desperate times we might see desperate measures, long has there been talk of oil in the Falkland's or in places like Hampshire or Berkshire and I don't mean fracking. This would not guarantee financial credit worthiness yet might bring us close enough. I don’t think this will happen yet depends on circumstances.
There should be increased demand on our manufactured products due to lower exchange rates, like Japan likes our shoes and Burberry is being mentioned in terms of success in China and with possible lower corporation rates they might flourish.
If it goes bad then we could revert to a type of national socialism where we look to keep money in the economy and stop unnecessary outflows, probably the least desirable option.
With manufacturing, we might be able exploit the left-hand vehicle drive with Australia and NZ obviously there would be a deal to be made as we would need to give something yet international trade normally benefits both sides. We don’t necessary need to build cars it could be emergency vehicles or coaches or a new ‘VW camper van’, after all we did build the mini once upon a time.
In global politics there are always people looking for friends and this would bring opportunities, I notice Turkey buying the Russian S-400 missiles has recently upset the Pentagon. This is an example of how alliances can change in times of uncertainty.
Bizarre as it may seem we actually fought on the same side as the Russians in two world wars that should give the US some incentive to be reasonable. Of course, only if things get desperate.
Another factor, China supposedly has a lot of respect for the UK perhaps it’s longevity and them liking Burberry coats might be something that can be exploited for a while, tastes being cyclical, IMO.
Yes another unexpected advantage from a falling pound:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/record-number-of-chinese-tourists-flocking-to-london-after-brexit-sparks-plunge-in-the-pound-a3438751.html
Japan is a country that intrigues me and liked their concept of national café using local produce staffed by older people looking to earn small wages and stay occupied and social. I think with the looming pension deficits of people my age this could be something we could do here, we could even use the misshapen veg the supermarkets won’t take. If we get back a sizeable portion of our fishing industry and there is little demand again this could be used for national cafes providing cheaper food. I’m also for school dinners using local food too. All of this would likely need some subsidies yet is a way of keeping money in the economy when you already have the raw material it makes sense.
NHS, I ‘ve beaten agina, prostate, headaches, immune disorders, wifi sensitivity (like Charlie Guard I have tech that used to say my mitochondria was being attacked) and I have helped two couples struggling to have kids overcome infertility. Most of the heads of our public institutions are corrupt IMO and have sold out to corporate interests and also vested interests within the NHS like pushing unnecessary surgery. Then we have the PFI interest scandal and high salaries for some non-medical staff which needs to be understood more. So big savings could be made if the need is there. I could say much more about this.
Paul the Wolf mentions WTO membership could be blocked by Argentina over the Falklands, I think the Falkland’s would be sacrificed if this was seen to be the key to avoiding financial hardship as long as the inhabitants were moved somewhere safe. My take currently is that May by meeting with Canada and other players is taking soundings before considering the WTO route.
In summary we are now in a high-stakes game and the outcome is not clear yet there will be opportunities for those willing to keep their wits about them.
